Why do some nations conquer, while others get conquered?

This article was first published here by the Friday Times on April 24, 2023.

Even though it was nearly twenty-five years ago, I still vividly remember what it was like to step aboard the USS George Washington for the first time. For those who are not familiar, the G.W. is one of ten Nimitz class aircraft carriers in America’s navy. It is a massive warship made from 60,000 tons of steel that is over 330 meters long and functions as a floating airbase. When fully loaded with its complement of 90 aircraft, it displaces nearly 97,000 tons.

Building one takes 2,500 hundred workers about five years and costs $5 billion, but that is a relative bargain compared to the new Ford class of carriers which cost $4.7 billion in research and development on top of the $12.8 billion price tag to build. These ships are miracles of engineering that highlight America’s industrial might, wealth, and determination to remain the world’s dominant military power.

I would often stand on the GW’s monstrous 4.5-acre (36 kanals) flight deck and marvel at the resources that went into designing, building, and deploying it. Once built, carriers are manned by a crew of 5,000 sailors and airmen and cost another $1.18 billion a year. Which means that simply operating and maintaining these ten ships costs more than Pakistan’s entire annual military budget. And that does not even account for the cost of their aircraft or the cruisers, destroyers, and fast attack submarines that escort them whenever they deploy which brings the total cost to $21 billion a year.

These ships allow America to control the world’s oceans and the 40% of its population that lives within reach of them. They represent a huge investment in its military, but they are just one part of the military power that America has built and sustained since WW2.

Serving aboard America’s gigantic warships was a surreal experience, one that fed an obsession with trying to understand the factors that allowed it to build such a powerful military. But this was merely part of a larger obsession – trying to understand why the Muslim world has been so militarily weak for so long as evidenced by the repeated pattern of conquests it has been subjected to over the past few centuries. Solving the riddle of America’s power therefore holds the key to helping Muslims prevent more violence like the sort that has consumed Kashmir, Chechnya, Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine and far too many other places.

America’s military is the result of several factors working together. It is a large country, well endowed with fertile land and abundant natural resources. Its borders are protected by the Canadian Shield to its north and the Atlantic and Pacific oceans. Some might argue that geography, by itself, is enough to explain America’s power. But a comparison with Russia and Israel suggests otherwise.

Russia has also been blessed geographically, though not to the same extent as America. Its western and southern borders have always been vulnerable to attack and its lands are not nearly as fertile. But it is still a large nation, with lots of natural resources and protected on its northern and eastern borders. It also fields a powerful military, but one that pales in comparison to America’s. Russia’s military is large and moderately well-equipped but mostly used to secure its “near abroad.”

America’s military, on the other hand, extends its reach to the entire world. The easiest way to illustrate this point is to compare the number of carriers deployed by each nation. Between its Ford, Nimitz, America, and Wasp classes, America currently deploys a total of twenty-one aircraft carriers of various shapes and sizes. Russia, even during the height of its Soviet era power, struggled to deploy seven such vessels, most of which were incapable of launching fixed wing aircraft or deploying far from its shores. Of these seven, only one remains in service and it is currently in drydock. When it comes to projecting military power, the ultimate tool is the aircraft carrier. Russia’s inability to build more than a fraction of the carrier fleet built by America is one of many examples that highlight the limits of its power.

On the other end of the geographic spectrum is Israel, a tiny nation bereft of natural resources. Despite its diminutive stature, Israel fields the most powerful military in the Middle East and was able to establish its dominance over the Arabs long before America became its ardent supporter. Israel may not have aircraft carriers, but it does have a sophisticated nuclear triad, advanced tanks and fighter jets, and cutting-edge electronic warfare, signals intelligence, and missile defense capabilities. It also has a proven track record of dominating its enemies on the battlefield.

These examples are important because they show that geography, by itself, does not provide an entirely satisfying explanation. If geography were the only determinant of military power, America and Russia would field roughly equal forces and Israel would have ceased to exist long ago. Geography has certainly played a part in allowing Russia and America to build their large militaries, but the contrasts between them and Israel’s example show it is not the most important factor in explaining why. Instead, we must look to the type of political institutions that govern these nations.

Russia has a long history of being ruled by authoritarian and absolutist political institutions and their negative impact largely explains its relatively weak military abilities. America, on the other hand, features an inclusive, democratic system. Israel does too, for its Jewish citizens, at least. These are the keys to their military power.

Combined, the seminal works Why Nations Fail and The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers show how democracy leads to military power. In the latter, Prof. Kennedy explains that modern wars will typically be won by the side with the greater industrial and technological capabilities. According to Kennedy, military power is based on factors ranging from “geography and national morale to generalship and tactical competence” but primarily rests upon “adequate supplies of wealth, which in turn derive from a flourishing productive base, from healthy finances, and from superior technology.”  In Why Nations Fail, the authors show how democratic systems lead to the wealth, industrial capabilities, and technology highlighted by Kennedy.

As Saudi Arabia’s military incompetence shows, by itself, wealth is not enough. It is the ability to design, build, maintain, repair, and use the weapons required to wage modern war that matters. Paying for them is just one step of many in the convoluted process required to master and incorporate them into an effective military force.

The most fundamental step in that process is creating democratic political systems. To be clear, democracy is about far more than elections. It is about devising a political system that uses institutional mechanisms to create pluralistic power structures and ensure governments are responsive to the needs of their people. Voting is just one of several methods used to achieve this. A true democracy establishes the rule of law and the primacy of the individual by creating independent and efficient courts that settle disputes fairly and protect the lives and property of citizens against government excess and each other. They also feature competent law enforcement, administrative, and regulatory agencies, and ensure freedom of speech and association. In doing so, they create an environment conducive to strong economic growth and technological development which can then be used to create strong militaries.

Aside from generating the wealth and technology needed to build powerful weapons, democracies also provide significant advantages with respect to training the soldiers who will use them, which impacts the other factors listed by Kennedy relating to generalship and tactical competence. Wealth and strong free speech guarantees are vital ingredients needed to build vibrant schools that can educate future soldiers and give them the critical thinking skills necessary to thrive in combat. Once they enter military service, these soldiers will typically find themselves promoted based on their professional abilities and merit rather than their perceived loyalty to a particular regime due the ability of democracies to create apolitical militaries.

Taken together, these factors allow democracies to design and build sophisticated weapons, buy lots of them, and staff their militaries with professional and highly trained soldiers, sailors, and airmen who can use them with lethal effect. By inference, these ideas also show why the Muslim world’s lack of democracy has made its nations so weak and vulnerable to conquest. As a result, those who wish to understand the roots of the Muslim world’s weakness must focus on the prevalence of authoritarian and absolutist political systems throughout it and the ways these have stunted its economic and intellectual development, making it impossible to build militaries capable of protecting them from conquest.

At first glance, China’s military modernization would seem to contradict these arguments. However, its well documented issues developing adequate jet engines or advanced semiconductors as well as the intellectual property theft that has fueled much of its progress indicates its authoritarian system has also limited its technological development. In fact, its economy is already showing weaknesses that are directly attributable to its repressive political system as illustrated by its ghost citiescapital flight, and the efforts to control or silence many of its prominent entrepreneurs and their companies. Just as the Soviet Union did during the 1960’s, authoritarian systems may generate growth for a time, but in addition to negatively impacting technological innovation, they are inherently unstable and will inevitably retrench or collapse in on themselves.

Though it still suffers from certain authoritarian tendencies, Turkey’s example also supports these arguments. It has the most extensive experience with democracy in the Muslim world and is, consequently, one of its most advanced and powerful states.

Despite the obvious benefits and the data provided by the different examples offered above, most Muslim states have not embraced democracy due to their unique historical experiences, the entrenched power of their military elites, and the toxic influence of their social institutions. This has led some to argue that Islam is incompatible with democracy. But as argued here in more detail, the history of the Rashidun era shows that not only are democracy and Islam compatible, but that democracy is the form of government closest to the Islamic ideal.

In addition to being the most logical way to strengthen individual Muslim states, creating democratic political systems is also the only way to overcome their geographic weaknesses. The Muslim world is divided into over 50 nations, none of which can compete with the Great Powers alone. As such, Muslims must come together the same way Europe did after WW2 to create new political and economic entities that can allow them to work together to prosper and protect each other through free trade and security alliances. Europe’s democratic political systems were a key factor in allowing it to unite and creating similar systems will be necessary if Muslims ever wish to do the same.

The Muslim world’s authoritarian political systems have prevented such unity because they typically rely on patronage networks glued together by corruption and nepotism. These have made it impossible to build the sort of neutral courts and administrative agencies that can meaningfully connect Muslim states by creating fair and transparent ways for them to trade with each other on a large scale. This has, in turn, made it impossible to build the sort of relationships that can lead to a security alliance.  

Pan-Islamic sentiments may seem antiquated in the age of the nation-state, but the inescapable truth is that humanity’s history is a violent one and most of our conflicts have a tribal dimension. As Sam Huntington explains in his work The Clash of Civilizations, the world can be broadly divided into civilizational groups that share historical and cultural commonalities. According to Huntington, the Islamic and Western worlds constitute two such civilizations. These tribal dynamics explain why the West unequivocally backs Israel’s violence against the Arabs as it desperately tries to stop Iran from acquiring the same weapons it helped Israel develop. They also help explain Hindu India’s conflict with Muslim Pakistan. Even Europe’s rejection of Turkey is best understood in reference to their civilizational differences.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is intra-civilizational. But it has taken on inter-civilizational dimensions as Western nations side with Ukraine in their bid to box in their civilizational rival in Slavic Russia. There are certainly other contributing factors such as geo-politics and resource competition driving these conflicts but there is no denying their tribal nature.

The key to understanding these conflicts, and who ultimately wins them, is understanding how all the variables referenced throughout this discussion work together and shape each other. To do so properly, one must first recognize the primacy of political systems in shaping and impacting them all. As such, Muslim nations must build genuinely democratic and inclusive political systems if they ever hope to end the cycle of violence that has consumed so many of them. Doing so is the only way to overcome the many political, social, economic, technological, tactical, and geographic factors that have made it so weak for so long. Until that happens, Muslim nations will remain among the ranks of the conquered.

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Lessons from the war in Ukraine

I typically write about the underlying causes of the Muslim world’s military weakness and how to end it. But, for obvious reasons, violence in Ukraine has captured my attention recently. As someone who has spent his entire life watching people suffer in war zones in Palestine, Kashmir, Syria, Yemen, Afghanistan, Iraq, and countless other places it has been painful watching similar scenes unfold in Ukraine. The vivid images of destruction visited upon the Ukrainian people who wanted nothing more than to live freely under leaders of their own choosing have brought back horrible memories of images of children playing on the beach in Gaza who were murdered by Israeli shells. Or images of American bombs destroying entire neighborhoods in the infamous Sunni triangle in Iraq. War brings nothing but death and despair. Those who unleash it carelessly are evil people indeed.

As such, I shall endeavor to advise Mr. Putin and Ukraine’s leadership as to the most prudent course of action just as I often advise the rulers of the Muslim world in a desperate attempt to get them to enact policies that can end the violence that has consumed so much of it. Inexplicably, they have yet to follow my very sensible advice.

For example, I have long counseled the leaders of Palestine to lay down their arms and for all Palestinians to adopt widespread acts of peaceful civil disobedience while performing symbolic acts of surrender in recognition of Israel’s overwhelming miliary superiority and willingness to slaughter women and children the same way Russian forces have been slaughtering innocent Ukrainians. Given the barbaric violence Israel has inflicted upon the Palestinians and their continuing inability to protect themselves from its exceptionally powerful military, their best option has long been peaceful civil disobedience. I always strive to give the best advice I can by making sure it is based on a realistic assessment of the available evidence and common sense (as a lawyer, that’s what I’m trained to do). 

PUTIN’S BEST OPTION IS TO RETREAT IMMEDIATELY

In a nutshell, I advise Mr. Putin to retreat and sue for peace immediately. He can no longer prevent Ukraine from joining the EU since his actions have made that inevitable, but he can still threaten enough violence to prevent it from joining NATO. Every day he delays his withdrawal he puts that limited goal in jeopardy. I have already explained the most logical solution to end this conflict here. I stand by the suggestions contained therein but since I offered this advice before the invasion, I would like to elaborate due to recent events. Russia’s invasion has created a range of plausible scenarios that will all lead to the same end – its defeat. The only real question is how long it will take and how many will die before Putin comes to his senses.

The ideal scenario for Russia is that its forces eventually subdue Ukraine’s government and military, conquer significant portions of its territory, and establish a government that takes the Kremlin’s orders. To achieve these goals, it will need to inflict heavy damage that will kill thousands of civilians and lead to significant casualties for its fighting forces. As I explained in a comment to a recent Foreign Policy article here, Putin will unleash the sort of barbaric violence he unleashed against the people of Chechnya and Syria, but it is unclear if he can achieve similar results. Even if it uses similarly brutal tactics, there is a reasonable probability that Russia only captures pockets of Ukrainian territory and fails to establish full military control.

The best-case scenario is still horrible for Russia because its forces will face a well-organized and supplied insurgency. Failed counterinsurgency (COIN) campaigns in Afghanistan and Iraq show what happens when insurgents have access to bases and supplies from areas outside the conflict zone while successful ones in Palestine and Malaysia show that COIN operations can only succeed if these are cut off. Ukraine’s geography and proximity to friends willing to supply it with arms places it in the former category. These dynamics mean that Russia’s defeat is inevitable even if it conquers the entire country. The more devastation Russia’s military inflicts and the longer it stays in Ukraine, the greater the likelihood that it will fully integrate with the West once his forces eventually leave. And that eventuality is a certainty. Again, it only a question of when.

Admittedly, it is hard to predict an accurate timeline. Russia occupied Afghanistan for ten years despite absorbing increasingly greater losses. Given the ferocious defense Ukraine has mounted thus far, it will probably be forced to withdraw much faster than it withdrew from Afghanistan (my guess – Russian forces will get kicked out of most of Ukraine within 6 months – two years but will try to annex portions along its periphery permanently).

Its campaign is going so poorly that it is already ratcheting up the nuclear rhetoric. This is a bluff and a foreshadow of the brinkmanship Putin is likely to employ in the coming months as he tries to save face. But the end is obvious. Putin has lost. A smart chess player would retreat and regroup immediately. If Putin retreats quickly, he will survive. The longer he waits and the more he digs in, the worse it will be. Some might think it is too early to make such predictions, but we have seen similar misadventures unfold so many times that the results seem inevitable. Hopefully, instead of going through the motions of this predictable and unnecessary drama, we can just move to the part where Putin’s forces go home, and we learn some valuable lessons.

LESSONS AND ADVICE FOR UKRAINE

For Ukraine, the lesson is simple. The West cannot protect you. It can help you, but that’s it. I know the US, UK and Russia all made promises but relying on their word was not very smart, and that is not hindsight. The advice contained in the article linked above still makes sense. Turn yourself into a porcupine that not even a bear would touch and channel your inner Switzerland/Israel.

I know this does not make up for the loss of life, but you will be given all the Western aid you need to rebuild. Please use it wisely. You have shown your bravery but as you rebuild, I truly hope you create institutional mechanisms to ensure the money is used to develop local industry in the same way Germany and Japan used American aid to rebuild after WWII. Please do not use it to make Western NGOs and defense contractors rich while allowing your elites and warlords (there will be warlords if Russia goes all in and sticks it out for years) to siphon off the rest. Do not compound tragedy with short-sighted greed like the leaders of Afghanistan and Iraq did. Make sure this aid is designed to give you the means to protect yourselves without outside help and with the idea that it will eventually end.

Dictators like Putin come and go but Russia will have thousands of nuclear weapons and conventional military advantages that Ukraine will not be able to match for the foreseeable future and beyond. The causes of conflict between Russia and Ukraine as a gateway for invaders and source of food supplies will always drive conflict with your large neighbor. As such, once Russia withdraws, you must begin the task of dissuading the next Russian despot who will try to control you.

LESSONS FOR THE REST OF US

What is happening in Ukraine provides important lessons for all students of international relations and war that are often ignored out of short-sighted political self-interest. To expect that the West would stand with Ukraine against Russia’s nuclear arsenal was a lapse in judgement. One that will take a long time to rebuild from and shows a nation must be self-reliant in matters of national security and that having friends really helps too. That might seem contradictory but it’s not. History has shown that powerful nations have an easier time developing close alliances. One naturally leads to the other.

It would take a true ally indeed to fight against a nuclear armed bear. That kind of alliance takes years to develop and requires a high degree of commonality and overlapping interests sufficient to compel nations to come to each other’s aid against such violent foes. NATO constitutes such an alliance. For those nations like Ukraine that do not have powerful friends willing to take up the fight, self-reliance is the key. As such, let’s take a step back and think about what it takes to build real military power.

As America’s military dominance shows, democratic and inclusive political and social systems that adhere to the rule of law and allow for freedom of expression are key to supporting the technological and economic growth required to create powerful militaries. If Ukraine (or any other nation) is to ensure its freedom it must aspire to make itself independently powerful by learning from these basic principles.

The easiest way to explain how democratic political systems lead to military power is by using a mathematical equation (sort of). Democracy equals wealth which equals power. Power equals victory and all these factors added together equals impunity. The reasons America and Russia face such different reactions to their imperial wars of conquest are simple.

One, racism and bigotry are real. And two, America is too powerful and violent to be held to the same standards it holds others to. It had no legitimate reasons to invade Vietnam or Iraq. But few were willing to challenge its barbaric rampages of killing and destruction even though they destroyed millions of lives. No one will ever call America out because it has the power of an 800-pound gorilla. Even with all its nuclear weapons, Russia’s power pales in comparison to America’s.

When it comes to modern warfare, the nation or coalition of nations with the best resources and the ability to work as a team on multiple levels to use those resources effectively will usually win. The top level being the political, legal, and economic institutions of the state and the bottom being an infantry platoon and the soldiers in it. There is a direct, though complicated, and layered correlation between the effectiveness of the levels at the bottom and those at the top.

America may have lost its wars over the long run but that was due to self-inflicted wounds from the corrupting influences its hyper-militarization (which, believe it or not, can be counter-productive to sustaining military power) has had on its political and economic systems and how this rendered it unable to develop an effective set of military, political, and economic policies that could consolidate its victories. America may not have been able to devise an effective COIN strategy, but it was able to assert military control over both Iraq and Afghanistan with lightning speed and then maintain that control simultaneously for many years.

Both invasions showed once again how its vast wealth and advanced technological base have allowed it to arm its soldiers with large quantities of advanced weapons. Putting these in the hands of soldiers with the education and social/unit cohesion to use them with such devastating effect allowed it to assert control over much of the Islamic world starting from the first Gulf War until its withdrawal from Afghanistan roughly thirty years later. Its strength and wealth also shielded it from the wrath of the rest of the world and has allowed it to maintain much of its military presence in the region even after its defeats in Iraq and Afghanistan. The foundation for its power and the impunity with which it is used are its democratic and inclusive political and social systems.

I’m not suggesting Ukraine should aspire to similar strength but offering an example of the big picture dynamics required to build a powerful military. It starts with creating inclusive social, cultural, and political systems and institutions that give as many citizens as possible a fair shot at pursuing their dreams. Nations that create political and social systems that allow for that type of freedom tend to prosper and nations that prosper have the resources to build powerful militaries. America has not always been perfect in this regard, but it has been better than most and has been working hard to improve for many decades.

Inclusive social and political systems go hand in hand. For example, before Pakistan built its nuclear weapons it decided to make the job infinitely harder by chasing a brilliant scientist away due to his religious beliefs. But part of the reason it did so was because its political and legal systems reinforced the authoritarian tendencies of its social and cultural systems. America, on the other hand, used to wholeheartedly welcome scientists from all over the world, regardless of their religious beliefs. Its willingness to do so greatly contributed to its power and wealth.

Welcoming minorities with differing beliefs and putting them to work based on their talents and passions is just one part of building powerful nations and militaries. The most important part is building genuinely democratic political institutions that give people a say in who rules them and the laws that govern them, but inclusive political and social systems are mutually dependent. They work together to allow people to use the political process to negotiate peacefully to manage and share resources, create fair and neutral mechanisms to settle disputes, and make sure no one feels so marginalized that they take up arms to pursue their political goals. Inclusive and well-run governments based on the rule of law lead to stability, social cohesion, economic and technological growth, and these factors lead to military power.   

To build a scientific and industrial base that would allow Ukraine to generate the sort of military power that can protect it against more violence it will need to ensure its political and social systems/institutions are designed to support the necessary economic and technological development. It has already proven it has the social cohesion and critical thinking soldiers to defend itself, now it must create the conditions that can give them the resources to do so independently in the future.

Russia’s military blunders in Ukraine support these arguments. It is weak for the same reasons as many of the Arab states, though to a considerably lesser degree. Its autocratic and repressive political system has stifled both economic and technological development in a way that has prevented it from building the sort of military America used to conquer Iraq so quickly. This has made its military weak in many ways. Russia will always be a second-tier power while it is governed by dictators.

TYING IT BACK TO THE MUSLIM WORLD AND WRAPPING IT UP

I have been giving the rulers of the Muslim world similar advice for a long time. I am certain Putin will ignore me too but, anyone who has practiced law for any length of time is used to seeing their good advice get ignored. Nevertheless, I feel obligated to continue my futile attempt to insert common sense into matters of politics and war despite the refusal of so many to listen. The logic of my arguments is not only intuitively self-evident but supported by the ideas of the smarter people than myself whose opinions are summarized and synthesized here who have discussed these matters in more detailed and scholarly settings. Anyone who has read Ibn Khaldun’s Muqqadeema, Machiavelli’s the Prince, Kennedy’s Rise and fall of the great powers and Why nations fail by Acemoglu and Robinson should agree with my analysis.

A lot of Muslims have been complaining about the double standards this conflict has brought to the forefront. These complaints are justified but will fall on deaf ears in the West. Instead of raging against the unfairness of the world, Muslims must learn some important lessons as well. I write about those on my blog www.mirrorsfortheprince.com so I will not get into the details. To summarize, Muslim societies must undergo serious and deep-rooted reforms to their political, economic, social, and cultural systems and institutions if they ever wish to end the cycle of violence that has consumed so many of their nations.

Over the past several CENTURIES Muslim communities have repeatedly been subject to the exact type of violence destroying Ukraine right now. Just as Ukrainians deserve to live free, so do Muslims. It is time to end the cycle by taking substantive measures to make sure this kind of violence can never touch the Muslim world again. The alternative is more death and destruction. If not from America than from one of the other great powers. Ukraine is not the first country Russia has violently attacked in recent memory. It’s just the first white one. The pattern will continue until Muslims take the necessary measures to protect themselves by listening to the advice offered above. For example, the West clearly has no plans to help Chechnya free itself from Putin. That will only happen once Muslims learn the right lessons from conflicts like the one consuming Ukraine and the many that have consumed the Muslim world. Thankfully those lessons are relatively simple: self-reliance is the key to freedom but having good friends really helps.

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What Muslims can learn from Ertugrul

The original version of this article can by found here: What Muslims Can Learn from the Turkish TV Series Ertugrul – The Muslim Vibe

I have recently become addicted to the hit Turkish drama Ertugrul. For those who are unfamiliar with this show, it follows the exploits of a Turkish tribal warrior named Ertugrul during the 13th century when Turkish nomadic tribes were in the process of conquering and settling Anatolia. The first season shows the title character’s Kayi tribe migrating from pasture lands that can no longer support its herds and livestock to new lands near the Syrian city of Aleppo while the second season shows the Kayi tribe migrating back to Anatolia in advance of a pending Mongol attack[1]. The series provides rich historical detail regarding the religious, cultural, social, political, economic, and military dynamics that eventually led to the conquest of Anatolia by Turkish tribes. Ertugrul and the Kayi tribe are of particular interest because Ertugrul is the historical figure who fathered Osman, the founder of the Ottoman Empire. The show therefore provides a window into many of the ideals and values that helped shape the foundations for one of the most powerful and long-lasting empires the world has ever seen.  

As a Muslim who grew up in America, I was initially attracted to the show because it depicts Muslims and Islamic practices and values in a positive light, and I have spent most of my life watching fictional depictions of Muslims that are the opposite. I also love the attention to historical detail provided by the show’s creators. Despite being a fictional drama, the detailed depiction of Islamic and Turkish values and culture in the show can provide valuable lessons to Muslims because it takes place during a time when Muslims were still powerful and more closely adhered to the original values of Islam. As such, this discussion will provide an analysis of the ideas and values depicted in Ertugrul with a view towards suggesting what today’s Muslims can learn from its historical depictions.  

WHAT ERTUGRUL GETS RIGHT:

The need for unity:

Ertugrul does a wonderful job of highlighting important Islamic values. The primary lesson contemporary Muslims should take away from Ertugrul is how important unity is to the preservation of the Muslim community. Throughout the show, the Kayi tribe’s many enemies engage in subterfuge meant to divide and weaken the leadership of the tribe and to prevent them from forming alliances with other groups of Muslims such as the ruler of Aleppo or the Seljuk dynasty. Ertugrul must constantly fight against the instincts of his brother and other tribesmen who do not view attacks on other Muslims as a danger to their own survival and who resent Ertugrul for leading Kayi warriors into battle to defend other, non-Kayi Muslims. As Ertugrul’s ally Wild Demir points out, burying one’s head in sand like an ostrich is not a plan. Similarly, ignoring the slaughter of other Muslims because they are from a different tribe or country will only embolden and strengthen those who seek to divide and conquer Muslims. Just because we may not be related by tribal or even linguistic bonds to other Muslims does not relieve us of our duty to protect each other. Part of the reason contemporary Muslims are so weak is because we have divided ourselves into separate nations and tribes and focus more on our ethnic, linguistic, or doctrinal differences than our common Islamic bonds in direct contradiction of God’s commands. Though it may seem overly simplistic, the need for unity among Muslims cannot be overstated and is one of the primary Islamic values that must be re-emphasized if today’s Muslims are ever going to regain control over their own lands. This becomes even more obvious when one considers that there is no single Muslim nation with the size and resources to compete with the great powers of the world like the US, China, or Russia. In order to develop the strength to compete with these powers, Muslims must emphasize the need for unity so that they can create new entities with the same size, power, and resources as the Ottoman Empire.   

Ertugrul emphasizes the need for unity throughout the series in different ways. For example, in one scene Ertugrul’s alps come upon alps from the Dodurga tribe who have been captured by the Mongols. Although these alps have fought against Ertugrul and were even hunting him when they were captured, his alps still save them. Their willingness to forget their disagreements with their rivals and still fight to save them is an important lesson for contemporary Muslims who seem to spend more time bickering among each other than working together. In the same way that Ertugrul’s alps were willing to put their differences aside and help their fellow Muslims, contemporary Muslims must also bury their animosities and disagreements so that they can begin to work together to build a better future for themselves.  

Throughout the series, Ertugrul and his men take great care not to kill other Muslims, even when those Muslims are trying to kill them. At one point, Ertugrul fights his cousin Tugmetkin and his men but makes sure not to kill any of them. This also subtlety emphasizes the need for unity since the murder of other Muslims, even in self-defense and even if it is for a good cause will inevitably fracture the Muslim community. This is particularly true when the other Muslims, such as Tugmetkin, have been deceived into attacking their fellow Muslims. Ertugrul’s restraint against Muslims who are trying to kill him is a testament to his understanding that murdering these men will only strengthen his enemies. Since the first Muslim civil war, Muslims have been too quick to shed each other’s blood and the consequences of this violence are the deep divisions that continue to separate us today. Violence must be an extreme last resort among Muslims, and it must only be used by governments that have been democratically chosen from among the members of the community against those who have committed grave crimes. In the same way that Ertugrul’s father would not execute his rival, Kurdoglu, without strong evidence, the state’s monopoly on violence must only be exercised in extreme cases after all the evidence has been fairly reviewed and due process has been given to the accused. Aside from this rare exception, violence among Muslims can never be tolerated. Ertugrul seems to understand this as well.  

How Muslim leaders should conduct themselves:

Another extremely important lesson we can learn from Ertugrul relates to how Muslim leaders should conduct themselves. Ertugrul does not seek wealth or power to satisfy his ego. In fact, he must be convinced by his loved ones that he should take over leadership of the Kayi tribe because he keeps insisting that he prefers hunting over ruling the tribe. He always prioritizes the welfare of his people and believes that it is his duty to serve them. Leadership is not a vehicle to wealth and power for Ertugrul, instead it is a burden and a duty. Since he does not attempt to acquire power to enrich himself and views himself as duty bound to protect not just his Kayi tribe, but all Muslims, Ertugrul is able to attract loyal soldiers who are not interested in wealth either. Instead of wealth and power, Ertugrul and his men are bound together by a common sense of duty that is rooted in their Islamic worldview. As such, Ertugrul, though clearly the leader of his men, relates to them as a loving brother. He does not use fear or violence to motivate them. He even serves them food on several occasions. His humility, kindness towards his subordinates, sense of duty and justice, and unwavering commitment to protect his fellow Muslims are his greatest strengths and exemplify the ideal Muslim ruler. This is best contrasted by his cousin, Tugmetkin, who is a brave but young and immature member of the Dodurga tribe allied to the Kayis. Tugmetkin is primarily motivated by ego since he wishes to be seen as a great leader and warrior. Since his primary motivation is rooted in arrogance and ego, he is not an effective leader and must often resort to humiliating his men or harsh corporal punishments to maintain discipline. Tugmetkin is not the only example of poor leadership depicted in Ertugrul. The ruler of Aleppo and many of the leaders of the Kayi and Dodurga tribes are only interested in power so that they can live luxurious lifestyles, accumulate wealth, or satisfy their egos. 

Ertugrul’s leadership qualities and the way in which he treats his people are also important in helping him to turn his Alps into a highly effective fighting force. This is part of the process Ibn Khaldun first described relating to the development of “group feeling[2]” and how this leads to attaining what he terms “royal authority.” According to Ibn Khaldun, “group feeling” refers to the feelings of kinship and loyalty that cause people to work and fight together for their mutual betterment. The term “group feeling” is therefore a shorthand way of describing why and how members of a particular tribe or group develop the military ability to assert political control over their societies by attaining “royal authority.” In Ertugrul, the Kayi tribe develops superior military abilities because its warriors develop personal loyalty and feelings of brotherhood towards each other, which provides exceptional cohesion to its fighting units. The strong “group feeling” of the Kayis allows them to take full advantage of the martial abilities their nomadic lifestyle provides.

All the Turkmen tribes in Ertugrul have similar lifestyles, thus all their alps are excellent archers, cavalrymen, scouts, and light infantry. What separates the Kayis from the other tribes such as the Cavdars or Dodurgas is that their “group feeling” is stronger. This is primarily rooted in the fact that the leaders of the Kayi tribe both in their personal relationships and interactions and in the way they carry out their public leadership roles always strive to be fair, honest, and generous. They treat the members of their tribe and their warriors as family. They share their food and wealth with them and never hoard more than their fair share. Many of the tribe’s warriors refer to Ertugrul’s mother as their own mother. This is because many of them lost their parents fighting the Mongols and were subsequently raised by Ertugrul’s family. By developing a leadership style that emphasizes fairness, advancement through merit, and trust, Ertugrul allows the Kayis and their allies to develop the sort of “group feeling” that provides them with significant military advantages, and this allows Ertugrul to expand his inner circle by developing alliances with others outside of his tribe based on their similar worldviews and values. By treating his allies and warriors as family, Ertugrul creates a “group feeling” among his supporters that gives them strong feelings of loyalty and trust which, in turn, allows them to fight better together. This is consistent with Ibn Khaldun’s view that “group feeling” can only be attained by developing an ethos based on justice and fairness.

The need to retain control over the economy and the need for free trade:

Ertugrul also correctly highlights that allowing outsiders economic control will eventually lead to conquest. In the first season, the Crusaders trick both the ruler of Aleppo and the Kayis into entering into trade agreements that make them more vulnerable to their machinations. Though trade, even between rivals, can often be beneficial to both parties, Ertugrul and the Muslim world’s history of colonial exploitation show that allowing outsiders too much control over the means of economic production will eventually undermine the health and strength of the economy. This will eventually lead to conquest and subjugation. Again, the relevant distinction here is control versus healthy trade. As Ertugrul correctly illustrates, the former is to be avoided at all cost. Though Ertugrul does not deal with the subject of international trade in detail, the history of the Muslim world shows that this can have a positive impact on economic development so long as it is managed properly and does not lead to ceding control over the means of production or undermine them in some way.   

Another lesson Muslims should learn from Ertugrul is the need to promote the free exchange of goods, people, and ideas between the entire Muslim world. Ertugrul depicts a Muslim world that is integrated through interconnected layers of political alliances, trade networks, and religious networks. These connections and the infrastructure that supported them helped to create what was essentially a free trade zone that allowed for the movement of goods, people, and ideas throughout the Islamic world in a manner that helped it to develop a common culture and integrated economy. The Kayis’ interactions with merchants indicate they are part of a trade network that extends to many, far flung parts of the Muslim world. Though Muslims quickly divided themselves politically, most of the Islamic world has historically been linked through commercial links that were reinforced by the ease with which both people and ideas could travel throughout it.

The European conquest of the Muslim world destroyed these links and the dictators that rule the region today have refused to re-create them out of fear that doing so would threaten their power. If Muslims are ever going to resurrect themselves, they must rebuild these links and they must not limit themselves to only commercial ties. They must also rebuild the social and cultural connections that used to bind Muslims together by creating new multi-national organizations that can allow Muslims to develop bonds with each other based on a wide variety of interests such as sports, hobbies, religion, art, poetry, common professional or commercial interests such as trade associations or associations of lawyers, scientists, teachers, law enforcement officials, etc.

Reinforcing such bonds by promoting tourism between Muslim countries and building linked infrastructure to facilitate this exchange of goods, people, and ideas will be vital to promoting the integration of Muslims. For example, one of the show’s main characters, Ibn Arabi, was born in Andalusia. Despite being born in modern day Spain, Ibn Arabi is welcomed by the Turkish speaking Kayis in Anatolia and becomes an important spiritual guide for the tribe.  He also uses his influence to convince Ertugrul to join a Sufi order. By highlighting this order, the show is illustrating how Muslims from different tribal or ethnic backgrounds used such organizations to create ties to each other that transcended their ethnic or tribal identities. The depiction of Sufi brotherhoods that are comprised of members from different parts of the Islamic world can also serve as a guide for the creation of new organizations that can use similar methods to unite Muslims in a way that can overcome their ethnic or linguistic differences. However, since religious associations are not the only way to promote cultural exchange in the modern world, contemporary Muslims should seek to create new international organizations focused on a wide range of interests such as those listed above.

While Ertugrul’s ideas and depictions of Islamic values are mostly positive, there are also lessons to be learned from some of the negative depictions in the show.

WHAT ERTUGRUL GETS WRONG:

How the tribe’s political structure marginalizes its workers and women:

As such, it is now time to discuss the shortcomings depicted in the show. The primary lesson in this category relates to the division of power within the Kayi tribe. Though a meeting of tribal notables called a “headquarters” is held to settle disputes and formulate policy, power is overwhelmingly concentrated in the hands of the tribe’s ruler, the Bey, and this power seems to be disproportionately derived from military power. Two classes of people appear to be permanently excluded from power: the workers who manufacture the tribe’s goods or oversee its food production and its women. 

Headquarter meetings provide a way to get input from the tribe’s notables and matters are usually settled by a vote. These nascent democratic mechanisms help the tribe to formulate intelligent policies and plans. The problem with these meetings is that they exclude all but the most influential members of the tribe. Also, the process used to determine who attends these meeting is unclear but seems to favor men who have proven themselves fighting for the tribe. The accumulation of power by the tribe’s warriors and the exclusion of the tribe’s workers such as its shepherds and craftsmen from headquarter meetings creates an excessive reliance on the tribe’s military class to develop policies. During times of war (such as an impending Mongol attack) it makes sense to defer to the military; however, based on the depictions in Ertugrul, this division of power seems to have been permanent.

Ertugrul depicts the beginning of the Ottoman Empire which eventually collapsed because its military class developed considerably more power than its business class. They then used their political power to allocate far too many resources to the military which undermined the economic foundations of the Empire particularly once the Ottoman military was no longer able to conquer new territory to exploit. When viewed in this light, the ramifications of the division of power within the Kayi tribe become easier to understand. As such, when contemporary Muslims look at how power is distributed in the Kayi tribe, they must understand that the tribe’s excessive reliance on its warriors to make decisions without input from the economically productive members of the tribe is an inherent weakness and that this weakness was present throughout the Ottoman Empire and is still present in far too many modern Muslim societies.  

The second class of people routinely excluded from the tribe’s headquarter meetings are its women. The only woman who consistently participates in these meetings is Ertugrul’s mother, Hayme, and her participation does not occur until after her husband’s death. The lack of political power by the tribe’s women reflects the wider marginalization of women within it. The female characters in Ertugrul are often extremely intelligent and perceptive. They usually have an easier time recognizing who they can trust and who is only serving their own selfish interests than their male counterparts. Despite their clear abilities and talents, aside from Ertugrul’s mother, they are prevented from assuming overt political or military power. Instead, the women in Ertugrul must resort to manipulative tactics to have their voices heard. Though the show often depicts these women as being unscrupulous or overly ambitious, their willingness to resort to tricks to accumulate power is a natural consequence of their inability to assume direct power or even routinely participate in headquarter meetings. When one considers the harem intrigue that caused so much damage during the Ottoman era, one must consider the underlying cause of this intrigue which is directly related to the exclusion of women from power.  

Though excluding women from power was routine during Ertugrul’s time, this same dynamic has continued to haunt contemporary Muslims who still marginalize women. The exclusion of women from power despite their obvious talents solely because of their gender is an indictment of Muslim men who often twist the tenets of the Islamic faith to justify their behavior. This is particularly frustrating when compared to how women were treated during the era of the Rashidun. The headquarter meetings depicted in Ertugrul are similar to the meetings held during the Rashidun era to decide policies; however, during this era women were active participants in these meetings.  The Caliph Omar even appointed a woman as the head of the market in Medina, which is roughly analogous to appointing a woman as the head of the department of commerce in modern times.

Instead of being allowed to utilize their talents for the betterment of the entire Muslim community, Muslim women have been marginalized and disenfranchised in direct contravention of the precedents established under the Rashidun in a manner that has greatly contributed to the Muslim world’s weakness and stagnation. It is impossible to grow and develop in the modern world while preventing half of the potential labor force from participating to the full extent of their talents.

Though Ertugrul is presented as a wise and brave ruler, in my opinion, his sister-in-law Selcan is the most capable member of the Kayi tribe. She is always the first to diagnose subterfuge, has the sharpest business acumen, is brave and would make a worthy ruler. The fact that she is automatically excluded from power explains her volatile personality as she must constantly force people to listen to her while Ertugrul can simply speak during a headquarters meeting. Despite being smarter than almost everyone around her, Selcan is constantly ignored or told to keep her opinions to herself. If Selcan were a man, her intelligence would have catapulted her to a position of leadership but since she is a woman she is ignored and marginalized. The fact that her talents are wasted is an indictment of the tribe’s political structure and the Muslim world in general. The sad truth is that nearly 800 years after the events in Ertugrul, women in the Muslim world are still denied the opportunity to realize their talents and this is one of the main reasons Muslims are so weak and impoverished. 

Glorifying war is not the way to promote an Islamic re-birth:

Another important lesson Muslims should learn from Ertugrul is that its glorification of violence is no longer appropriate. The first two seasons show the Kayi tribe under direct attack from both Crusaders and Mongols. The tribe’s military actions are all defensive in nature and, as such, are presented in a morally defensible light. However, it is important to remember that not all Ottoman military actions were defensive in nature. The Ottoman Empire was historically expansionist in its outlook which means that many of its wars were wars of choice. Instead of relying on simplistic tropes that paint the West (or the Crusaders in Ertugrul) as being motivated only by greed and hatred of Muslims, we must understand how our own actions have contributed to the animosity between Muslims and Christians and we must stop seeking solutions that are only based on war. In the same way that the political power of the tribe’s warriors likely caused them to place too much emphasis on military solutions, contemporary Muslims have also been too quick to use war to settle their disputes. The excessive reliance on military power has taken away valuable resources from education and scientific development which are the real basis for civilizational power. The truth is that war is evil. It is chaos, death, and destruction. War should never be glorified and must only be entered into as an absolute last resort because nothing good comes of war. All wars do is create widows and orphans and destroy families which, in turn, destroys society.  

In Ertugrul, violence is primarily directed towards Crusaders and Mongols that wish to conquer Muslim territory. The reality is that most violence within the Muslim world is perpetrated by Muslims against other Muslims. If the message of Pan-Islamic unity articulated in Ertugrul is ever going to become a reality, Muslims must learn to emphasize economic and political cooperation as a means to achieving unity amongst ourselves and we must realize that war is not the true path. Again, Ertugrul does not appear to advocate for such violence since the military action from the first two seasons is all defensive in nature, but the glorification of war has often been used to justify fratricidal wars among Muslims or wars of conquest against non-Muslims. If Muslims are ever going to unite it cannot be through war. It must be through peaceful and voluntary economic and political integration. A union of Muslims based on war and death could only ever lead to tyranny and dictatorship. Only a union of Muslims entered into freely and based on Islamic ideas of unity and equality that is implemented by the creation of democratic political institutions that fairly share power among Muslims without allowing any one tribe or group of Muslims to unfairly dominate the others can successfully unite Muslims. 

Instead of turning itself into a militarized state, a union of Muslims nations would be better served by investing in its educational institutions so that Muslims can begin developing their scientific abilities. If contemporary Muslims are ever going to follow Ertugrul’s example and resurrect themselves, it will not be through war but by revitalizing the culture and intellectual climate of the Islamic world so that it can reclaim its historical place as the world’s leader in these fields. Muslims once invented algebra, gave Aristotle new life and meaning, pioneered the medical sciences and were the main drivers of culture, technological innovation, and science in the world. We must return to our previous ways of prioritizing intellectual honesty and critical analysis so that we can begin producing a new generation of thinkers that can contribute to humanity’s intellectual development. Glorifying war, though it makes for more exciting television, is not the way to promote the re-birth of the Muslim world.  

CONCLUSION:

Ertugrul is one of my favorite television shows, but it is still just a television show. It can provide valuable lessons for Muslims if we examine its various messages and subplots with a critical eye. If Muslims are ever going to resurrect Islamic civilization, we must do so in a way that accounts for the realities of the modern world while still adhering to the appropriate Islamic values. We must invest in our educational institutions and fundamentally change our cultural attitudes towards discussing taboo subjects. And we must allow our fellow Muslims to live their personal lives as they see fit without interference so that people can feel free to express themselves and follow their passions without fear. This is the only way to unleash people’s creative energy and this energy is the key to technological innovation and growth. It is impossible to limit artistic, personal, or political expression and still create an environment that is conducive to technological innovation or intellectual growth. Authoritarian tendencies bleed over into all aspects of society and even if officially limited to certain areas such as political speech, they will affect unrelated academic areas. If Muslims ever hope to re-establish their former power consistent with the themes developed in Ertugrul we must begin by creating an atmosphere that is conducive to technological innovation and strong economic growth as these are necessary for developing the sort of military abilities that will be necessary to prevent further conquests of Muslim lands. Such inclusive and tolerant attitudes will also be key to uniting Muslims. The Muslim world is so large and diverse that only a culture that embraces diversity and peaceful co-existence can facilitate its unification. Those Muslims who wish to see the unity of the Muslim community restored must therefore embrace Islamic notions of tolerance and compassion as well as the idea that there is no compulsion in religion. Muslims who seek to impose their religious views on others through force or violence are hypocrites because their views and actions prevent the very unity that will be necessary to end the subservience of the Muslim world and the slaughter of innocent Muslims in so many parts of the world. 

This brings us to Ertugrul’s last and most painful lesson. There is no real life Ertugrul. Instead of waiting for an idealized hero to come save us, Muslims must begin to work together to build the sort of institutions that can unite and strengthen us and that can finally provide the Muslim world with the leadership it so desperately needs. Part of the reason the Muslim world has been so devoid of leadership is that its institutions and culture have proven incapable of producing the sort of selfless and clear-sighted leaders that characterized the early Ottoman period. It is unrealistic to expect rulers to be selfless on their own. Instead of expecting rulers to voluntarily put the interest of the community ahead of their own personal interests, Muslims must begin to create governments that feature institutional mechanisms that can act as a restraint on the selfish impulses of its rulers. The lesson Muslims must learn from Ertugrul is that if we want our leaders to act like Ertugrul we must create the sort of political institutions and culture that can attract honest people and that can incentivize them to put the needs of the community first. The only way to counter the inherently selfish nature of human beings is by developing institutional checks on rulers so that they can no longer use their power to accumulate personal wealth. Instead of empowering rulers that seek wealth and comfort, Muslims must focus on finding rulers that prioritize fighting injustice and defending the weak. We can use Ertugrul’s example as a guide, but ultimately, it is up to the people of the Muslim world to begin building the sort of institutions and culture that can force Muslim leaders to finally start prioritizing the needs of their people over their own selfish desires.   


[1] The present discussion is primarily based on the first 2.5 seasons of the show.

[2] Khaldun, Ibn, Trans by Franz Rosenthal. The Muqaddimah: An Introduction to History. Princeton University Press. Princeton and Oxford.  1967. At pgs. 107-111.

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The Taliban have no reason to celebrate: 

Reports coming out of Afghanistan regarding the Taliban’s celebrations are extremely confusing.  The end of any war is always cause for joy because it brings hope for peace. But anyone who thinks the Taliban’s “victory” is worth celebrating as a triumph of Muslim military prowess is a fool with extremely low standards. Glorifying events in Afghanistan is an implicit acceptance of the Muslim world’s unbelievably weak military abilities.

America conquered Afghanistan with such ease that one could almost forgive its leaders for underestimating the Taliban’s ability to re-group. It only needed a few special forces troops and air power to conquer a nation that is over 650,000 square kilometers in the span of a few weeks. The Taliban were completely outmatched and ran away almost immediately. Its conquest was so easy that it never even bothered to station more than 20,300 troops there during the first five years of its occupation.

America withdrew from Afghanistan because, as explained here, it shot itself in the foot in a variety of ways, leading to the Taliban’s resurgence. It then realized it did not care enough to stay and clean up its mess. So, it left. It decided long ago that Afghanistan was not worth the effort but only stayed for so long due to its stubborn pride and corporate interests. And yet it still took the Taliban twenty years, an estimated 50,000 dead soldiers, and 40,000 dead civilians to convince them to leave. That is not a victory worth celebrating.

Afghanistan was easily conquered and occupied by both Russia and America because it has never been able to build an industrial base capable of generating the military capacity to deter these invasions. It has been unable to do so because a significant number of Afghans are philosophically opposed to the type of reforms needed to modernize. The Taliban’s views are not an aberration within Afghan society or the Muslim world either. They are just an extreme manifestation of the authoritarian tendencies that have prevented Muslims from instituting the changes necessary to thrive in the modern world. As such, the debacle in Afghanistan is an indictment of Afghan society and a reflection of the weakness that has consumed the entire Muslim world.

While it was occupying Afghanistan, the US decided to invade Iraq too. Using fabricated evidence, it concocted a tale to justify an invasion that led to the slaughter of between 200,000 – 1,000,000 innocent Iraqis. No one is sure how many Iraqis died because no one bothered to count all the bodies. It was able to violently maintain control over both nations simultaneously for many years, and only left after it grew tired of wasting resources on countries that were not part of its core national security interests.

America’s embarrassingly easy conquests and overlapping occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq and the inability of the entire Muslim world to prevent these attacks are just one piece of the puzzle. The tiny nation of Israel has established complete military control over the Eastern Mediterranean and bombs its Arab neighbors with impunity when it is so inclined. It also launches clandestine and aerial attacks against Iran, which can only respond with threats and impotent, asymmetric gestures. Pakistan has tried and failed to take Kashmir from India three times. The string of military defeats suffered by Muslims is too long to list in its entirety. But they are all related to the same root causes.

The simple fact is that Muslim societies would not be so prone to conquest if their institutions had not already rotted from within.

There are still too many Muslim nations living under the tyranny of dictatorship. The violent authoritarian control exercised by the region’s military and/or religious elite[1] has crippled the ability of Muslims to build effective governments and social institutions capable of nurturing the economic and technological development necessary to end their appallingly weak military abilities. Until Muslim societies wholeheartedly implement serious reforms to their political, legal, educational, social, and economic systems to free themselves from the shackles of dictatorship, they will continue to be subject to the same pattern of conquest they have endured these past five centuries. Instead of blaming outsiders, Muslims must accept responsibility for their failures. The simple fact is that Muslim societies would not be so prone to conquest if their institutions had not already rotted from within, making them such inviting targets.

The military incompetence of Muslim nations represents an existential threat that can no longer be ignored.

America’s occupations were but the latest in a long line that all prove a simple point. It is time for change. The military incompetence of Muslim nations represents an existential threat that can no longer be ignored. Imagine what would have happened if Afghanistan and Iraq were actually important to the US. It has already proven it will do anything to win a fight, even if that means dropping atomic bombs on an island full of emaciated women and children. America may not care about the Muslim world today, but the world is volatile, and things change. If it decided to come back, no one could stop it.

America is not the only country Muslims should worry about either. Any Muslim welcoming China, given its treatment of the Uighurs, is a hypocrite and an even bigger fool. In some respects, Russia has been an even more brutal conqueror of Muslims than the West. The Czars conquered vast Muslim populations who have repeatedly tried and failed to throw off the yoke of Russian occupation. These examples highlight a glaring pattern of weakness prevalent across nearly the entirety of the Muslim world. The Taliban and those with similar views may see events in Afghanistan as a vindication of their beliefs, but that only proves how foolish they truly are.

Afghanistan’s new rulers appear to have learned how to deal with Western media. One can only hope they have also studied the deeper causes of the Western world’s military dominance, which is the result of its democratic forms of government, inclusive political and social institutions, secure property rights, and free speech protections. These have allowed the West to create governments, schools, and private companies capable of stimulating the economic and technological development necessary to develop advanced military capabilities. Until the Muslim world implements reforms that can lead to similar capabilities, it will continue to be a victim of conquest.

Instead of celebrating, the Taliban should ask themselves why their nation was so easily conquered and why it took so long to evict Russia and America. Doing so requires deciphering why it has been unable to modernize or develop a system of government that allows its diverse people to work together. Until they solve these riddles, they will be unable to develop policies that can ensure they are never conquered again. By extension, the rest of the Muslim world should be asking, to varying degrees, why it has been so weak for so long. If Afghanistan was a victory for Muslim arms, I shudder to think about what a defeat would look like.

Having discussed the problem of the Muslim world’s military incompetence, here are some ideas to correct these issues.

The author is a US Navy veteran and creator of the blog www.mirrorsfortheprince.com where he examines the causes of the Muslim world’s sustained weakness and suggests reforms that can help it modernize.


[1] Kuru Ahmet, “Islam, Authoritarianism, and Underdevelopment,” (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2019), 3-6, 9-12, 93-101, 225.

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It is time to create a Muslim NATO:

As explained in more detail here, America no longer has the desire to act as the Muslim world’s military hegemon. As such, it is only a matter of time before the US relinquishes its role as the dominant military power within the Islamic world. Though the contours and timing of its withdrawal are still uncertain, Muslim nations must begin considering how this withdrawal will impact them and how they should react. The changes that are likely to transpire represent a “critical juncture[i]” in the history of the Muslim world that will determine its trajectory for several decades. The reaction of Muslim nations will be pivotal in determining this trajectory. The following is not an attempt to predict what Muslim nations will do, but to suggest what they should do.

THERE IS NO SINGLE MUSLIM NATION POWERFUL ENOUGH TO ASSUME THE SECURITY ROLE THE US HAS FULFILLED

There is currently no Muslim nation with the military and economic resources to act as a military hegemon within the Muslim world. In fact, the most powerful military in the Middle East belongs to Israel. Among Muslim nations, Pakistan fields the most powerful military but given its fixation on India and extreme underdevelopment, it does not have the capacity to project military power beyond its borders. Given the current security dynamics in the region and the military weakness of most Muslim states, particularly the Arab states[ii], a withdrawal of US forces from the Islamic world will lead to further instability due to the security vacuum such changes will create[iii]. As such, the governments of the region must devise new policies that can fill the vacuum created by America’s inevitable withdrawal. Though not a direct cause of the Muslim world’s underlying weakness, America’s military presence has certainly helped entrench it and the dependence of Muslim nations on its power will make developing adequate military capabilities considerably more difficult.

There is no single Islamic nation capable of becoming a military hegemon on its own because none of them have the size and resources to compete with Russia, China, the US, or a united Europe. The Ottoman Empire was the last great Islamic empire, and it was never able to overcome the geographic vulnerability of having to defend itself against a powerful and antagonistic Persia to the East, an expansionist Russia to its North and a resurgent Europe to its Northwest. Ultimately, Muslims have no choice but to pursue policies that will lead to the sort of unification that Europe has undergone since the end of WWII since this is the only way to create an Islamic political entity with the resources to provide the Muslim world with the security and stability it so desperately needs.

Talking about the integration of Muslim countries considering their highly fractured relations may strike some as fantasy and to a certain extent, it is. However, it is highly doubtful anyone standing in the rubble of Germany or France after WWII could ever have imagined how integrated and prosperous both countries would be so soon after the end of that conflict. In many respects, Europe has a much greater legacy of conflict between its nations than the nations of the Muslim world. In fact, WWII is most accurately interpreted as the culmination of a series of wars resulting from the evolution of Prussia into modern day Germany. As the individual German states united, the power dynamics in Europe shifted, resulting in a series of wars that included WWI and WWII. The chaos and constant warfare that plagued Europe did not stop until a comprehensive political and economic solution in the form of the European Community was created. Some may counter that it was the absolute military victory of the Allied powers that ended this cycle of conflict, and this is true to a degree. But the Allies also decisively won WWI and despite all the carnage of that conflict, Europe was engulfed in war just two decades later. It was not until Western Europe integrated its economies and created the political institutions to manage this integration that the cycle of warfare between Europe’s nations stopped.

From this perspective, working towards the integration of Muslim nations is a realistic though difficult goal. The Muslim world is obviously in a different situation than Europe at the end of WWII. In some respects, it has advantages that Europe did not have since it has not experienced the destruction of a cataclysmic war and does not need to completely rebuild itself. However, this same advantage is also a handicap since the shock of WWII was likely a catalyst behind the first efforts to integrate Europe. On the other hand, if the conquest of Muslim lands and the continuing domination of Muslims by outside powers is still not enough to convince Muslims that working together to ensure their freedom and prosperity is a goal they should aspire to, then it is unlikely even a conflict on the scale of WWII would have any effect either. The biggest disadvantage Muslims face in their quest to integrate is the fact that the political institutions of most Muslim countries are closed and extractive[iv] whereas Europe’s institutions were mostly open and inclusive. The most difficult part of trying to integrate Muslim countries will therefore be reforming these repressive and closed political institutions. If Muslims can successfully reform these institutions, they have the potential to finally end their protracted weakness.

THERE ARE ONLY A HANDFUL OF MUSLIM STATES WITH THE CAPACITY TO CREATE SUCH AN ENTITY

The only way to strengthen the Muslim world’s military capabilities is to create a new political entity that can assume the security responsibilities America has performed for the past several decades since there is no Muslim nation capable of handling this role by itself. The most logical route to accomplishing this goal is to resurrect the concepts that led to the creation of CENTO. As the US understood in the 1950s, the nations of Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan have the capacity to form the backbone of a security alliance that could develop into a hegemonic Muslim power. Due to its geography and strategic concerns, Afghanistan should also join this alliance.

The main difference between CENTO and the entity being proposed here (hereinafter referred to as P.A.I.T.) is that the US should not be an active participant. It should support the creation of such an entity, but since the goal is to relieve the US of its security responsibilities, it would make no sense for it to be actively involved in its creation. Instead, it must grow and develop as a purely regional security system that allows Muslims to develop the capacity to work together for their own protection. Due to the extremely weak nature of most governments within the Muslim world, P.A.I.T. also represents the only Islamic countries with the institutional capacity and strategic incentives to create such an entity. Most of the Arab, African, and Central Asian parts of the Muslim world feature either unstable authoritarian governments that are dependent on American or Russian military and economic assistance to maintain their power or failed states that do not have the requisite degree of state centralization to create political, military, and economic institutions that can form the basis for a stable, democratic government, let alone a new multi-national political entity[v].

A security alliance between P.A.I.T. will not work nor be of lasting duration unless it is underpinned by an economic alliance. The first step in creating such an alliance will therefore be creating free trade agreements that can bind the economies and infrastructures of these nations together. Despite their weaknesses and different strategic concerns, the long-term goals of P.A.I.T. are all best served by economic integration meant to create an entirely new political entity with the strength to fill the power vacuum left by America’s departure. Combining the populations of these four countries would create an entity with a large internal market of over 400 million people that is well endowed with natural resources and defensible borders. The presence of such an entity would allow the US to withdraw its troops from the region by taking over its security responsibilities in the same way that the creation of the UAE allowed the British to withdraw their forces from the former Trucial States.

All four nations face strategic environments that should make their elites more receptive to integrationist ideas. In fact, three out of four are locked in existential conflicts they are not strong enough to resolve on their own. As a result, their governments are not as likely to prevent such an alliance from developing out of fear that it may threaten their grip on power. The main issue is that their elites must see an alliance as being in their interests despite their ethnic and doctrinal differences and the short-term upheaval such changes may cause. Though each has its own weaknesses and strategic concerns, they also have the right combination of institutions and strategic needs to overcome these issues if they can muster the political will and vision to do so.

Part of the impetus for creating a new political entity comprised of P.A.I.T. is that doing so will allow them to consolidate their borders and improve their geostrategic positions by creating advantages of strategic depth and improved internal lines of communication and supply to fortify their frontiers. A Pakistan that can rely on the meaningful support of Afghanistan, Turkey, and Iran in its confrontation with India will be much better equipped to handle such a confrontation and would have more options available to it. An Iran that can use free trade agreements with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkey to mitigate the effects of US economic warfare and provide strategic depth for its military assets will be better able to resist the aggression of the US or Israel. By entering into free trade agreements with Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey, Afghanistan will finally be able to develop the economic strength needed to give its people the peace they have lacked for so long but in a way that does not put it under the undue influence of another power. It may also be the only way to legitimize and moderate the new Taliban government. And the inclusion of Turkey into this alliance will provide it with a well-developed economic base that can be used to facilitate economic development between all four nations while finally allowing Turkey to realize its pan-Islamic foreign policy goals. Essentially, by combining portions of the lands and resources of the old Ottoman, Safavid, and Mughal empires, Muslims can create a new entity that has the land and resources to ensure the great powers of the world can no longer dominate them. Eventually (meaning the distant future), such an entity could expand West and North to include many Arab states as well as the Muslim republics of Central Asia.

P.A.I.T. WILL NEED TO UNDERGO SERIOUS REFORMS

In order to come together to create such an entity, each must first undergo serious internal reforms to either create or strengthen their democratic political institutions. The creation of inclusive and genuine democratic institutions that respect the rule of law and rights of their citizens are absolutely vital for creating dynamic economic institutions[vi] and military capabilities. If Muslims ever hope to end the cycle of conquest and subjugation they have endured for the past several centuries, they must institute deep rooted political and socio-economic reforms because this is the only way that they will ever be able to develop the economic, technological, and military power required to protect themselves.  They must also drastically improve their governing institutions by zealously fighting corruption and ensuring their institutions can provide the government services such an entity will need to thrive. They must work to integrate their infrastructures and create new institutions that can facilitate their integration by increasing trade between all four nations so that their elites can quickly see the benefits of having access to each other’s markets.

They will also need to work to overcome the ethnic and doctrinal rivalries that have consumed the Muslim world. The only way to bridge the divide between Sunnis and Shiites, or Turks and Persians, or Punjabis and Pashtuns, etc. is to create institutions that allow these different ethnic and doctrinal groups to fairly share power with each other. In the modern era, those societies that have been able to create institutions that are successful at fairly sharing resources and settling disputes among its citizens regardless of their ethnic or religious differences have achieved the greatest economic prosperity and sometimes even the greatest amount of military power[vii].  Democratic institutions allow for a greater diffusion of power which leads to a greater diffusion of wealth which empowers groups within a society to continue generating and developing more wealth, creating a reinforcing loop of wealth creation and power diffusion and this usually leads to greater overall wealth for everyone[viii]. Given the diversity of the Islamic world, the only way Muslims will ever come together is by creating such institutions to facilitate their integration.

There seems to be a direct correlation between inclusive, democratic institutions and military power. This is because societies that fairly share political power and economic resources and properly incentivize their members to increase their economic output are typically going to be wealthier. The increased wealth of these societies provides them with more resources to spend on developing their military capabilities and the inclusive political institutions used to facilitate this wealth creation also reduces friction between members of these societies because they do not feel unfairly marginalized or excluded from power. As such, the members of such societies benefit from having the resources and necessary group cohesion to obtain a decisive military edge. This also shows that arguments in favor of creating liberal, inclusive political institutions are not based solely on a sense of morality or fairness but that such institutions are the most effective at allowing a society to develop the military capabilities necessary to protect itself from conquest. Their primary advantage is of a practical nature and a recognition that such institutions are the most effective at allowing members of a society to work together for their own betterment and protection. Conversely, ideologies based on narrow concepts of ethnic, tribal, or national identity are typically not as good at developing the sort of inclusive political institutions that can lead to greater economic growth and military power. This is important because the only way an entity comprised of Pakistanis, Turks, Persians, and Afghans will thrive is if it creates institutions that can allow these different groups to work together and the only way to accomplish this is to create transparent and fair ways for them to share power with each other and work together.

AMERICA’S ROLE

As part of its withdrawal the US must help create a coalition of allies that can prevent another hostile great power from replacing it. As such, facilitating the creation of an alliance between P.A.I.T. is in America’s long-term interest as well. The current strategy of relying on unstable monarchial dictatorships or military strongmen will not work in the long run. Simply put, these regimes do not have the strength to stand on their own. Consequently, continuing to support such allies makes no sense. Instead, the US must seek new allies that can defend themselves without help. The biggest hurdle to this is America’s ongoing conflict with Iran. If the US is serious about withdrawing its troops from the Middle East, then this issue will need to be resolved amicably. Doing so within the framework of an alliance comprised of traditional US allies like Pakistan and Turkey may present the best opportunity to do so in a manner that protects the interests of both nations.

The US must fundamentally change its policies towards the governments of the Islamic world by using its diplomatic and economic power to encourage these governments to respect the human rights of their citizens and institute meaningful democratic reforms. The only path to doing this is by supporting the spread of genuine democracy within the Islamic world. It must also stop being so fearful of governments within the Muslim world that have an Islamist component or perspective. The US has allowed its fear of political Islam to justify supporting brutal dictators that have mired the region in war and conflict. Instead of fearing such governments, the US must learn to work with them. As the people of the Muslim world become accustomed to choosing their own leaders, they may choose leaders that will have an Islamic perspective. This may lead to disagreements but does not have to preclude the development of strong relationships with these nations in the same way that even serious disagreements with its allies in Europe or India have not been allowed to undermine the fundamentals of those relationships.

Such policies would allow for the development of stable and democratic governments that respect human rights and can lay the foundation for the development of strong economies. This will eventually allow Muslims to develop the military capabilities necessary to prevent their conquest by another great power on their own. Though it may sound oxymoronic, helping Muslims become self-sufficient is the best way to help them achieve true independence and this is the best way to ensure these countries are never conquered or dominated by another competing great power that would deny America access to the region or use its resources as part of a broader confrontation with the US[ix].

CONCLUSION

It is only a matter of time before the US withdraws its troops from the Muslim world. Muslim nations must therefore develop new ideas that can allow them to fill the security vacuum its departure will create. The leaders of the Muslim world must begin to implement the reforms suggested above if they ever hope to end the cycle of violence and weakness that has consumed their countries. It is up to the nations and people of the Muslim world to devise new strategies that can allow them to finally end their protracted weakness. The policies they have pursued thus far have clearly not worked. The Muslim world has been in a sustained state of weakness for many centuries, and it will take many years to reverse the effects of its long decline. As such, the ideas presented here will take many years to develop and implement and the entity proposed above may never even materialize. However, even small steps taken towards creating it will have a beneficial impact on the Muslim world by increasing trade and helping Muslims work together. Muslims must therefore begin the process of building such an entity as soon as possible if they ever hope to reverse their fortunes.

The Arab states of the Gulf appear to believe creating an alliance with Israel will shield them from Iran while Pakistan and Iran are developing bi-lateral relationships with China. Neither strategy will work. Israel’s military is powerful enough to protect Israeli interests but, considering their aversion to casualties, it is highly doubtful Israel’s leaders will risk IDF soldiers to protect allies in the Gulf or help them secure the Gulf’s shipping lanes. Muslims rejoicing at America’s departure and welcoming China should be wary as well. China’s ethnic cleansing of its Muslims should serve as a warning to those who believe it will be a kinder benefactor than America. The authoritarian structure of its political institutions and refusal to countenance even mild criticism or non-conformity indicate it will be the opposite. Instead of trying to replace the US with another outside power whose interests will then take precedence, Muslims must learn to look to each other for their security needs.

The best way to start is by allowing the people of the Muslim world to re-create the cultural, social, and commercial links that once bound them. Muslim governments and people both need to begin promoting the free exchange of goods, people, and ideas between each other. Islamic societies were once integrated through interconnected layers of political alliances, trade and religious networks. These connections and the infrastructure that supported them helped to create what was essentially a free trade zone that allowed for the movement of goods, people, and ideas throughout the Islamic world in a manner that helped it to develop a common culture and an integrated economy.  If Muslims are ever going to take control of their security needs, they must rebuild these links so that the interests of the Muslim world’s different nations and people begin to align in a manner that leads to further economic, political, and military cooperation.  Ultimately, the nations of the Muslim world have no choice but to adapt to their changing security environment by learning to rely on themselves and each other. Arguing for an alliance between P.A.I.T. may seem like a desperate plan but after centuries of conquest and subjugation, desperate is a fitting description for the Muslim world. The absolute military, political, and economic weakness of the Muslim world will only be corrected through bold measures.    

These ideas are also consistent with the theories developed by Professor Huntington in his important work “The Clash of Civilizations.” The past few decades have illustrated the prescience of his model for understanding international relations and conflict. As he predicted, the world is moving towards a multi-polar international system largely centered around its major civilizational blocks. Before this system can realize its potential, the Islamic world will need to stabilize itself. Until this happens it will continue to destabilize surrounding regions and it will continue to present a security vacuum that outside powers will try to fill. As Prof. Huntington’s model implies, it will fall upon the people and nations of the Muslim world to help themselves since nations from other civilizational blocks will be both unwilling and unable to do so[x].


[i] A “critical juncture” is when a “confluence of factors disrupts the existing balance of political or economic power.” See Acemoglu, Daron and Robinson, James, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, (New York: Crown Business, 2012) at 106.

[ii] The UAE, a.k.a. “little Sparta” is the only Arab nation that has managed to develop adequate military capabilities.

[iii] Bandow, Doug, “Want to Fix the Deficit? Bring Home the Troops,” Foreignpolicy.com, May 28, 2020,  https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/28/us-deficit-military-spending-budget-bring-home-troops/.

[iv] For a more detailed discussion regarding the impact of such institutions, see Acemoglu, Daron and Robinson, James, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, (New York: Crown Business, 2012) at 79-83; 216; 271.

[v] Both Indonesia and Nigeria are too geographically remote, and Nigeria does not face a strategic environment that would cause its elites to support the reforms that would be necessary to join such an entity.

[vi] Again, for a more in-depth discussion of these ideas see Acemoglu, Daron and Robinson, James, Why Nations Fail, (New York: Crown Business 2012) at 79-83; 216; 271.

[vii] Though he does not explain why in great detail, Prof. Bernard Lewis appears to agree with this conclusion in his article “Why Turkey is the only Muslim Democracy,” Middle East Quarterly, March 1994, pp. 41-49.

[viii] Acemoglu, Daron and Robinson, James, Why Nations Fail, (New York: Crown Business 2012) at 306-17.

[ix] The author is obviously thinking about China’s growing influence in the region.

[x] Huntington, Samuel, The Clash of Civilizations: Remaking of World Order, (New York: Touchstone, 1996) pp. 21-29.

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Why Iran’s proposed alliance with China will be bad for Iran

It has recently come to light that Iran and China are negotiating a sweeping new agreement to integrate their economies. Though details are scarce, the agreement will likely be similar to the CPEC agreement between China and Pakistan in that it will fund infrastructure meant to integrate Iran into China’s economic orbit. Entering into such an agreement will alleviate Iran’s short-term economic issues but at a serious cost to its long-term strength and independence. Iran is making the same mistake as every other Muslim nation that enters into unequal bi-lateral arrangements with more powerful nations. The power disparity inherent in these relationships creates unequal alliances that puts the weaker party at a significant disadvantage. This results in economic development that decidedly favors the stronger party such as deals to extract oil on terms that are extremely favorable to it. The elites of the Muslim world are happy to enter such arrangements because they benefit from the corruption and bribes used to cement these deals.

If the conservative faction currently running Iran’s government gives in to the temptation to enter into such an agreement, they will be confirming themselves in the same sort of dictatorship that has governed the Muslim world for far too long. Instead of compromising with the progressive elements within their society in order to develop political and economic institutions that can allow Iran to develop its economic resources in a manner that prioritizes the needs of its people, its leaders will skew its development by prioritizing China’s needs. And they will do so in the sort of corrupt manner that will incentivize them to continue using violence and repression to maintain their control of Iran’s government.

Not only would such actions entrench Iran’s dictatorship, they would also prove that Iran’s rulers have no interest in preserving Islamic values or leadership. The Chinese government is actively murdering its Muslim Uighur population in a genocidal campaign designed to facilitate the colonization of Western China by Han Chinese. They have created camps full of innocent Muslim women and children and are in the process of slowly murdering and sterilizing them. Humanity has stood by and done nothing so perhaps it is unfair to blame Muslims for not caring either, but one would think that a country that claims to care so deeply about the Muslims of Palestine would be just as concerned for the well-being of China’s Muslims. The fact that Iran’s conservative faction is likely pushing for the deal is even more galling since they claim to care the most about Muslims and use these claims to justify their usurpation of power. No Muslim should be doing business with China until it has freed every single Uighur from these camps. But those Muslim countries that claim to care about the plight of oppressed Muslims as part of their official government policies should be particularly ashamed.

Muslims do not criticize China out of fear. This fear is rooted in our weakness and this weakness is primarily rooted in our divisions and dysfunctional political institutions. China can easily deal with just one Muslim nation speaking out and since Muslim governments do not work together, they only ever speak as individual nations. Organizations like the Arab League that claim to represent Islamic unity are just vehicles used to create the illusion of unity without any of the substance. But if Muslims finally stood together China would have to take notice. It is only when Muslims learn to stand together that we will be able to stop such atrocities and our strength would be such that we would not even have to resort to violence. If Muslims were united, a conversation would suffice. Instead of turning to a nation that is engaged in the ethnic cleansing of other Muslims to protect itself from the US and Israel, Iran should look to its brothers in Pakistan, Turkey, and Afghanistan for help. And its brothers in Pakistan, Turkey, and Afghanistan should be ashamed that they have not more vehemently offered their help. If these four countries were united as brothers, a conversation would have also put the troubles between Israel and Iran to bed. Instead of working together, Muslim leaders continue to allow themselves to be divided and conquered. The only way to rebuild the bonds of brotherhood that once kept Muslims united is to rebuild the networks of trade, social, and cultural exchange that once turned the Muslim world into a common cultural and economic zone. Rather than negotiating a massive investment deal with China, Iran should be discussing a similar agreement with Turkey, Pakistan, and Afghanistan to link their infrastructures and develop the ties that can bind these nations together.

The most efficient way to accomplish this would be by strengthening the rule of law in each country by zealously fighting corruption. This would allow the political institutions of these nations to work together in a transparent manner to help each other prosper through trade. The creation of inclusive political institutions like those that led to the development of the EU would be vital to efforts to integrate Muslim nations as well. Sadly, most Muslim nations are run by governments that will not allow such links or reforms to develop. They prevent these reforms because they are governed by dictators who only care about preserving their power so they can steal as much money as possible. Their greed and shortsighted obsession with control has blinded them to what real power is. The rulers of the Muslim world import luxury cars from Europe and parade around pretending to be royal when they are just thieves. The only difference between a common thief and these rulers is that they have stolen so much money that they were able to buy themselves titles. Instead of working for the betterment of their people and faith, these rulers resort to violence and oppression to maintain their power. The great powers of the world help them stay in power out of a combination of greed and fear of what Muslims would do if they were ever freed from the shackles of dictatorship. Policies rooted in fear and greed can only ever lead to chaos and destruction and that is exactly what has consumed the Muslim world.

If Muslims ever hope to revitalize ourselves, we will need to begin looking inward by examining the cultural and social factors that have led to the current state of affairs. Ultimately, the oppressive governments of the Muslim world are a reflection of its people. In order to correct the issues of governance that have plagued the Muslim world, its people must engage in an intellectually honest debate regarding how best to correct the deep-rooted issues in Islamic societies that have prevented the development of vibrant and effective political and economic institutions. The current authoritarian governments in the Muslim world have prevented this much needed debate from happening and must be significantly reformed before an intellectually honest environment can be created. Until that happens, we will continue to see leaders like those in Iran who sell their souls for power and money. Although the need for reform has been clear for centuries, the absence of an intellectual environment conducive to honest and unfiltered debate has prevented Muslims from correctly analyzing the root causes of our weakness. Out of pride, we refuse to admit that we are a conquered people. We have been so thoroughly thrashed by the West in the ancient conflict between our two civilizations that we do not even think about picking ourselves up from off the floor to rebuild our societies. Since most Muslims cannot even admit defeat, it has been impossible to convince them of the need to implement reforms meant to reverse this defeat. Without serious reforms, our subjugation will never end, and we will continue to see atrocities such as those being perpetrated against China’s Muslim population.

Rather than enter into an agreement with China that will likely use Chinese firms and technical expertise to build its infrastructure, Iran should enter into agreements with its Muslim neighbors designed to improve their technical abilities and economic foundations. Using Iranian, Pakistani, Turkish, and Afghan companies to plan, design, and build the infrastructure that will be necessary to integrate their economies will allow these nations to truly modernize. Instead of importing the machinery needed to exploit its mineral resources from China, Iran should work with Muslim allies to create a free trade zone with each other in which local firms are incentivized to build the equipment and infrastructure needed to modernize. Utilizing local companies would allow investments in infrastructure to benefit the local economy while simultaneously improving the technical skills of their people. Until Muslim nations develop the capacity to build high quality machine tools, construction and mining equipment, fiber optic relays, automobiles, electronics and computer hardware and software, etc., they will always be impoverished. Rather than allow China to import its unprocessed natural resources for its own industrial needs, Iran should build an industrial infrastructure that can turn its natural resources into finished goods, and it should work with Turkey, Pakistan, and Afghanistan to accomplish this goal. Though this path is considerably more difficult, it would lead to real and sustained economic and technological development for all four nations. Iran’s potential deal with China is unlikely to lead to the development of these capabilities. Instead, it will probably follow the same path as Pakistan which has used Chinese loans to hire Chinese firms and buy Chinese equipment to build infrastructure China needs without improving its indigenous capabilities.

The economic policies suggested above will not work until Iran, Turkey, Pakistan, and Afghanistan build the political and educational institutions to implement and support them and this process will also be extremely difficult. Since the time of the Ottoman Empire, Muslims have consistently relied on foreign capital and technical expertise to build modern infrastructure in their quest to develop industrial economies. In every instance this has led to economic dependence and conquest. While building modern roads and infrastructure are vital for economic development, they are not the most important aspects of modernization. True modernization cannot happen without political and socio-economic reforms meant to empower and educate the masses. The reason most Muslim governments have been so bad at modernizing themselves is because they refuse to share political power with their people. Most of their reforms have only addressed the superficial symbols of modernity while ignoring the foundations upon which such reforms should be based. They have done this because their primary focus is retaining power. Only those reforms that do not threaten their power have been allowed and these have not been enough. Also, using foreign capital removes the need to improve their governing institutions and capacity to generate the tax revenue necessary to finance economic development locally. Again, they have chosen this path because, as counterintuitive as it may seem, improving their governing institutions such as their law enforcement agencies, tax collection agencies, or courts would threaten their power which is based on subverting these institutions in order to maintain their rule. Muslim rulers do not want functioning courts or administrative agencies because they are afraid these bodies may serve as a check on their power. Without the important government services these agencies are supposed to provide, the economic growth the Muslim world so desperately needs will never happen and its people will remain trapped in the same cycle of poverty and disenfranchisement that has ensnared them for centuries.

If Muslim rulers continue on their current trajectories, they will doom their people to slavery, and they will doom themselves to rebellion and weakness. Instead of suffering the fate of the Romanov or Pahlavi dynasties, Muslim rulers must embrace the path of Japan’s feudal rulers who prioritized the well-being of their people and power of their civilization by giving up much of their own power to oversee Japan’s transition to modernity. Muslims must create the democratic political institutions necessary to oversee such change and invest in educational, economic and scientific development if they ever hope to end their subservience to outsiders. As an astute, though cynical, man once noted, rulers that come to power by betraying their fellow citizens through treachery and murder may achieve power, but they will never achieve glory[1]. It is time for the rulers of the Muslim world to start thinking about the glory of their people and civilization rather than just chasing power. 


[1] Machiavelli, Niccolo, The Prince, trans. by George Bull. London: Penguin Books, 1961 at pg. 27.

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Why Muslim Governments Have Authoritarian Tendencies

Many nations in the Islamic world are governed by authoritarian rulers who have concentrated as much power in their hands as possible. One of the reasons that Muslim governments are so prone to developing authoritarian tendencies is that they have given themselves the power to legislate on any matter they choose. The more power a government has, the more likely it is to develop into a dictatorship. In Muslim nations, governments have given themselves the power to control almost every facet of their citizens’ lives including decisions that relate to personal lifestyle choices or how they express themselves. The region’s dictators are not the only ones guilty of overreaching either. In its quest to erase its Muslim past, Turkey enacted laws regulating how its citizens dressed by preventing them from wearing traditional headgear under the guise of secularism. Secularism is meant to give people the freedom to pursue their religious convictions without interference from the state. Using such ideologies to prevent people from practicing their faith is a subversion of the very essence of secular ideas. Laws that prevent people from practicing their Islamic faith in accordance with their personal convictions are just as authoritarian as the worst tendencies of entities like ISIS or the many governments in the Muslim world that impose laws meant to force compliance with Islamic values. The prevalence of such laws in so many Muslim countries shows how deeply entrenched authoritarian practices are throughout the Muslim world. 

Too many Muslims have been content to give their governments the power to control the personal lives of their fellow citizens due to their conviction that such laws were necessary to protect the morals of the community. The problem with allowing governments to have so much control over their people is that they will inevitably use this power to restrict activities or opinions that threaten their grip on power. A government that can tell its citizens how to dress (or not dress), what to eat, or how to conduct their love lives will have no problem using its broad powers to also control political expression. This is the path to dictatorship. Even if it results in social conduct they find morally offensive, Muslims must stop using their governments to regulate and control the personal lives of their fellow citizens if they ever hope to create governments that are not prone to dictatorship and the abuse of power. In order to ensure that governments do not encroach on the rights of their citizens they must only be allowed to legislate on matters that they have been explicitly empowered to regulate and that relate to a core government function such as building highways or schools. Laws that do not relate to a core government function should not be allowed on the grounds that they are beyond the scope of the government’s authority. Limiting governmental power by specifically enumerating those powers in a constitution or similar document is meant to prevent governments from acquiring the sort of broad powers that lead to dictatorship. Restricting a government’s legislative powers in this way is one of the most important mechanisms used to prevent the development of dictatorships.  
 
With respect to laws that govern morality or personal behavior, only conduct that impacts the safety of others should be regulated. For example, laws that prohibit the consumption of alcohol should be considered outside the scope of permissible government regulation. Whereas laws that prohibit operating motor vehicles after consuming alcohol are geared towards protecting public safety and therefore permitted. The loosening of restrictions on personal conduct or expression will result in behavior many Muslims find objectionable.  Despite this side effect, limits on a government’s ability to prevent such behavior are a necessary compromise meant to reduce the chances that a government can turn into a dictatorship. Of the two evils, unchecked immoral behavior may lead some citizens astray, but unchecked government power eventually leads to the subjugation of all citizens and has the potential to destroy the entire nation. 

The idea that governments cannot regulate such conduct is anathema to many Muslims because of the way in which Islamic governments have traditionally been given such powers. Despite this history, the evidence shows that it is impossible in the modern age to create a government that can effectively regulate such conduct without leading to an abuse of power. For example, Saudi Arabia is well known for regulating the personal lives of its citizens by forcing them to adhere to conservative Islamic social norms under penalty of law. At the same time, Saudi princes are well known for living hedonistic lifestyles that ignore many of these norms. Likewise, the founder of the Taliban, Mullah Omar, was said to have an extensive music collection despite overseeing the ban of music throughout his country. The hypocrisy of having rulers who are free to order their personal lives as they see fit while simultaneously preventing their citizens from doing the same perfectly highlights how such laws, particularly within an authoritarian political system, inevitably lead to an abuse of authority and repression. 
 
The truth is that it is impossible to regulate religious conviction and laws that attempt to do so will only lead to conformity with respect to superficial expressions of religious devotion such as dress or diet. The greater concerns of religion such as having faith in god are impossible to regulate. Laws intended to enforce religious practices are therefore an exercise in futility and only serve to increase the power of those charged with enforcing them in a manner that eventually leads to authoritarianism and dictatorship. 
 
Citizens that empower their governments to make subjective personal choices for society are also giving their governments the power to make similar subjective judgments about how people express themselves in other areas such as political speech or academia. As such, freedom, or a lack thereof, with respect to personal lifestyle choices will inevitably impact the freedom to express political views or engage in intellectual discussions. Authoritarian tendencies in one area will naturally lend themselves to authoritarian tendencies in other, seemingly unrelated areas. 
 
Muslims that argue such ideas or the constitutional mechanisms used to enforce them are un-Islamic are too focused on form over substance. Instead of limiting themselves to creating governments based on ideas and administrative practices that are centuries old, Muslims must create new governments that still embody the substance of Islamic values but use modern methods to achieve them. Muslim governments must still fulfill their religious duty to protect and preserve the Muslim community, but they must do so by focusing on only those Islamic values that are directly relevant to achieving this goal. For example, Islamic values regarding the need to maintain a united Muslim community or care for the poor are extremely important values that must be embodied in the laws and policies of all Muslim nations. 
 
Laws related to personal conduct or lifestyle are irrelevant to such ends. Instead of relying on the state to impose morality on our neighbors, we must teach our children how to behave morally and send them into the world confident in our ability to guide them. The fact that some of them may engage in behavior that is considered socially unacceptable may be upsetting but can only be viewed as an individual failure, not a societal one that requires a legal solution. Ultimately, it is the responsibility of each person to make the choices that best suit them. If that means engaging in behavior others find objectionable then this must be viewed as a consequence of the need to prevent governments from using their authority to abuse their own people. 
 
In the end, Muslims must learn to live and let live and we must stop using our governments to project our values onto our neighbors. It is tragic that some may falter but in life, some people fail, while others succeed. This is how the world has been ordered. Attempts to legislate against the natural order of things will always lead to irrational results. This is best illustrated by the prevalence of dictators and power-hungry leaders throughout the Muslim world that have manipulated their citizens’ willingness to cede them so much authority in order to maintain and extend their power.  

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Introduction: The What and The Why

Welcome to my blog, “Mirrors for the Prince.” I hope you enjoy yourself and, more importantly, I hope you find the content informative and educational.

Before explaining what this blog is about, I wanted to explain its name. About 1,100 years ago civil servants and ministers wrote books intended to provide practical advice to their rulers regarding how best to govern. This genre of literary work was referred to by an Arabic phrase that translates to “Mirrors for Princes” since these books were meant to encourage rulers to engage in the sort of self-reflection that would help them be better leaders.  The purpose of this blog is also to advise the current rulers of the Muslim world based on my experiences as a lawyer, veteran, and civil servant to help them be better leaders. The title “Mirrors For The Prince” therefore struck me as an equally relevant and fitting name since each article I publish is intended to function as a mirror the rulers of the Muslim world can use to help them reflect on the governments they have created. As with most of the ideas that will be presented here, the title is a fusion of Islamic and Western ideas since it also references one of the Western world’s seminal works of political thought, Machiavelli’s The Prince.  

As I said, this blog is meant to provide advice to the rulers of the Muslim world regarding what sort of policies they should pursue if they are at all interested in reversing the seemingly permanent state of weakness that has enveloped their nations. It is not an attempt to predict what they will do but to suggest what they should do. The goal is to try and spark the re-birth that the Muslim world so desperately needs by suggesting new policies that can substantially increase its power. The policies currently pursued by its rulers have resulted in the total military, political, economic, and technological domination of the Muslim world by the West, Russia, and China. The resulting instability has caused widespread poverty and warfare which has, in turn, caused the deaths of countless innocents.   

Though this blog will mostly express itself in the language of politics, economics, and history, it is truly concerned with questions of morality and basic human decency since its main goal is ending the marginalization of millions of innocent people who are suffering from violence and poverty. The analysis and ideas presented here are offered with a view towards finally creating the political and economic conditions necessary to end the suffering of these innocents. To that end, I will strive to provide the most objective and logical advice I can.   

Unfortunately, I am not confident my intended audience will heed my advice. As such, I will occasionally provide what limited advice I can to my fellow Muslims. I hope that some of my ideas will be well received by them. Ultimately, even if it’s a distorted representation, governments are still a reflection of their people. The ineffective governments of many Muslim countries therefore reflect poorly upon both their people and their rulers. As a community, Muslims must continue to search for answers to the deep-rooted issues within our societies that have affected our ability to develop and modernize. Please note that I suggest we need to modernize, not Westernize. The only way for Muslims to move forward is to begin relying on our Islamic values but in a manner that is consistent with the demands of modernity and evolution.  As such, my advice will be geared towards suggesting ideas that can allow Muslims to modernize and finally develop the technical, economic and military capabilities to protect themselves from the aggression and conquest they have been subject to over the past few centuries. My policy recommendations are based upon the idea that the excessive concentration of power by central governments leads to unjust policies that are mainly designed to further the interests of tiny groups of elites. Consequently, most of my ideas will relate to how best to diffuse power to the masses of the Muslim world so that they can determine which policies would benefit them. The underlying assumption being that political power leads to economic empowerment. The idea is to give the people of the Muslim world the power to create better lives for themselves without the undue influence of elites or outsiders who do not have any regard for the suffering their policies cause.   

I am uniquely qualified to offer my perspective because, in my professional capacity, I am tasked with critically examining relevant facts in relation to legal standards in order to determine the appropriate outcome without any pre-determined biases or preferences. Though it does not relate to the specific topics addressed here, my job emphasizes the sort of neutral and impartial analysis that allows me to objectively discuss a variety of subjects. We will see if these skills are equally applicable to the analysis of facts in relation to the theories of international relations, history, philosophy, and other various military and social sciences that govern the relations between nations and the power of nations that will be discussed here. Understanding the laws that govern how nations interact with each other is important because global peace and stability rests upon the ability of nations to work together for the betterment of the entire human species. Our technological abilities have now reached the point that humans have the potential to render the entire planet uninhabitable and devoid of life either through war or environmental destruction. It is time to come together, as a species, to develop the institutions and resources that will be needed to meet the challenges of the future. We cannot accomplish this by dividing ourselves into tribes and then condemning those outside of our tribe to poverty and underdevelopment. We must learn to work together.   

With respect to the Muslim world, this begins with a critical analysis of the relevant factors that have led to its decline combined with devising practical solutions grounded in the philosophy that humans must strive to be better and help each other. Humans have the capacity for both good and evil so we must work towards creating political institutions that reflect this reality by incentivizing our leaders to work for good and creating checks on their evil impulses. Many of the destructive elements in human societies result from our never-ending need to violently confront one another over the acquisition of resources, which is a fancy (I think) way of saying: people are greedy! And it needs to stop. Instead of pursuing selfish policies that only consider narrow and short-sighted interests, people and the nations we have divided ourselves into must learn to live in peace and work together to help all of us meet the demands of the future. Unfortunately, given the current trends in population growth, resource consumption, and technological development we are not on a path that will lead to a prosperous future. We need to correct course before it is too late, and I hope my ideas will be taken with these considerations in mind.   

Our governments have forgotten the basic concepts of human decency and morality that must govern the relationships between all people. Criticism of government policies that do not conform to these ideals is meant to spur reform, not express hatred. One should not assume that criticism equals a lack of affection. It is quite the opposite. In the same way that I correct my children’s bad behavior out of love, I am also trying to correct the bad behavior of both Muslims and the West by pointing out the injustices committed by both groups. Having grown up in the US, I am both Muslim and American and am loyal to both identities. As such, my advice is intended to help both groups be better.  

My ideas are based on both Islamic and Western political thought and values. For example, my views are pan-Islamic in the sense that I argue for the unity of Muslims working together on the basis of their shared Islamic identity. But this argument is also supported by Samuel Huntington’s theory of civilizational based international competition. When I refer to the need for Muslim nations to act as brothers, I am euphemistically alluding to the need for alliances among Muslim nations but in Islamic terms, not Western terms. This is intentional because it is important to describe these ideas from an Islamic perspective since it is Islamic values that will drive such relationships. Similarly, when I argue for the creation of democratic political institutions in the Muslim world that follow Western models this is also based on Islamic notions of consultative decision making and the democratic precedents of the Rashidun.  

The Muslim world has been consumed by weakness and stagnation and it is time to correct these issues. I realize it may seem presumptuous on my part to offer such advice, particularly since I grew up in the US. Though living as a minority in the US is not always easy, overall, I feel blessed to have grown up in a country that (imperfections aside) has allowed me to live my life as I see fit. Growing up in the West has given me the freedom to develop my worldviews and the intellectual justifications for these views without limitation or restriction. It has allowed me to develop the ideas that will be presented on this blog free from constraints on my ability to express myself. There are too many Muslim countries today that prevent their people from expressing themselves under penalty of torture, imprisonment, and death. I feel lucky that I was able to find refuge in the US. Even though I have managed to build a prosperous and happy life for myself here, I also feel a duty to try and help others create their own refuges. Since bringing the world’s billion plus Muslims here is not a realistic option, the only remaining choice is to help them build better nations for themselves. All my advice and suggestions are based on this goal.   

 
Enjoy! 

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