Senator Durbin does not understand why we lost in Afghanistan:

Senator Dick Durbin recently wrote an opinion piece about Afghanistan in USA Today. In it he argues that America lost its longest war because Afghans refused to “bend to reason or force” and could not accept “outsiders.” I completely disagree with his analysis.

We lost because we repeatedly shot ourselves in the foot in the following ways:

  • We never provided enough troops to properly secure the country once we routed the Taliban.
  • We outsourced security responsibilities to warlords that used their power to enrich themselves through corruption, theft, and drug trafficking while they violently abused the people they ruled over.
  • We wasted far too many resources trying to build a Western style military that Afghanistan could not afford or use properly.
  • We did not adequately manage or control how the vast sums of money we poured into the country were spent. As a result, at least 90% of the nearly $148 billion dollars we provided was either stolen or completely wasted on useless projects or military spending.
  • We never developed a mechanism to integrate those Taliban that tried to surrender back into society, giving many Pashtuns no choice but to support the insurgency.

As he noted in his piece, a lot of people died because of this war. As such, I think it is extremely important that we objectively analyze why we lost instead of relying on simplistic explanations or superficial stereotypes about the Afghan people. We had a small window of opportunity to do something good in Afghanistan and we blew it. That is why we lost.

Senator Durbin’s piece references Afghanistan’s history of violently ejecting invaders. I believe our history at the end of WWII is more instructive. We occupied Germany and Japan for ten and seven years after WWII. The policies implemented to secure both countries turned Nazi Germany and Imperial Japan into two of our closest allies. My point is, we have taken on bigger challenges than the Taliban and resoundingly won.

What is particularly concerning is that, despite fielding the most powerful military the world has ever known, America has forgotten how to win wars. The poor decision making that led to our defeats in Afghanistan and Iraq were remarkably like the mistakes made in Vietnam. Since the end of WW2 America has lost three of the five major military conflicts it has engaged in. This speaks to a troubling pattern that can only be explained by structural issues regarding our policy formulation process when it comes to matters of war and national security.

I realize the Senator’s letter was probably not intended to provide an in-depth explanation, but I still felt obligated to write this because the justifications in his piece are eerily similar to those used to create the unbelievably bad policies that led to our defeat. Until our leaders take the time to seriously reflect on why we lost in Afghanistan, and how this our loss fits within the larger context of the pattern of defeats referenced above, we will continue to waste lives and treasure losing wars that we should have won.

For a more in-depth discussion of these issues please see here.

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Muslims are still too weak and divided to help the Palestinians

The latest round of violence in Gaza galvanized the Muslim world yet again. Demonstrations and social media campaigns in support of Palestine highlighted the deep feelings of sympathy many Muslims have for its long-suffering people. As encouraging as it was to see so many show their support for the Palestinian people, these expressions of empathy and rage will ultimately lead to nothing.

That is because of one inescapable fact: Muslims are still too weak and divided to effectively confront Israel and its key ally, the United States. Iran is one of the few Muslim nations to actively oppose the neo-colonial power structures imposed upon the region by the West and, in return, it has been isolated and subject to brutal sanctions and clandestine military attacks. Until Muslim nations develop the military capacity to deter Israeli and American aggression, they will always be vulnerable to the type of violence that consumed Gaza.

The reasons for the Islamic world’s sustained weakness are too varied and nuanced to adequately address here. Suffice it to say, the prevalence of authoritarian political and social institutions throughout the region have choked off intellectual, political, and economic development in a way that has made it impossible for Muslim nations to develop the military capabilities required to protect themselves. As the always insightful Pervez Hoodbhoy points out in a recent editorial, the Muslim world’s lack of intellectual freedom and investment in education have left it unable to develop the means to counter Western aggression. He is absolutely right. Until the Muslim world revitalizes its intellectual climate, it will never be able to develop the technological base required to free itself from the domination of outside powers.

Compounding the problem is that Muslims refuse to work together. The Arabs are so scared of their Persian neighbors they are willing to work with Israel to weaken them. The Turkish people have finally begun to pivot back to the Muslim world, but their pan-Islamic vision is undermined by their oppression of the Kurds. Pakistan’s generals are so dependent on financial subsidies from their Arab patrons that they refuse to develop meaningful ties with Iran. These divisions play directly into the hands of the men that bombed Gaza and those that empower them. As Mr. Hoodbhoy correctly points out, unity by itself will not be enough. But working towards unification is just one of many changes that Muslims must make if they genuinely wish to change the power dynamics of the current global system in their favor.

The simple fact is that there is no Muslim nation large and powerful enough by itself to challenge the great powers of the world. That is because there is no Muslim nation with the size and resources of the US, China, Russia, or a united Europe. The only way that Muslims will ever end the atrocities in Palestine (or Kashmir, or Xinjiang, or Chechnya, or Burma) is by learning to work together.

The problem is that its authoritarian political institutions make working together impossible because they make it impossible to build the sort of inclusive and open political institutions required for such cooperation. The Muslim world is so large that the only way it will ever come together is by creating inclusive and democratic political institutions that can allow its diverse people to work together for their mutual betterment and protection. As such, the region’s lack of democracy not only limits its intellectual environment, economic strength, and stability but also its ability to bring Muslims together.

If Muslims are serious about helping the Palestinians (or the many other Muslim communities subject to conquest and oppression all over the world) then they must begin to institute deep rooted political and legal reforms to create democratic political institutions and stimulate the sort of intellectual growth necessary to end the dominance of the great powers. Such reforms will be key to supporting economic and technological development which are necessary precursors to acquiring advanced military capabilities.

They must also learn to work together. However, rather than indulge in fantasies about re-creating the Caliphate, ideas that can allow Muslims to work together must be based on a realistic assessment of the political and strategic environment facing the Muslim world today. Sadly, an honest assessment will quickly rule out the Arab, African, and Central Asian Muslim states. Their authoritarian political systems are so entrenched that expecting them to voluntarily reform themselves is not a realistic goal. The only Muslim nations with the right combination of strategic incentives, institutions, and geography that could convince their elites to come together are Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, and Afghanistan.

All four need to undergo serious reforms as well but three out of four are locked in existential conflicts that should incentivize their elites to at least consider such ideas. Though Turkey does not face the same strategic concerns as Iran, Pakistan, or Afghanistan, its elites should also be receptive to such ideas because they are the only way Turkey will ever be able to fully realize its pan-Islamic foreign policy goals.

Of course, the key to convincing these elites to adopt such ideas will be appealing to their pocketbooks. Consequently, the best way to build a sustainable alliance between these four nations is to start by building stronger economic ties and infrastructure that can allow for the free flow of goods, people, and ideas throughout them. The Muslim world divided itself politically long ago but was historically linked through interconnected layers of religious, trade, and political networks. The European conquest of the Muslim world destroyed these connections and today’s rulers have refused to rebuild them out of fear that doing so will threaten their grip on power. It is time for Muslims to rebuild these links so that their interests begin to align in a manner that can eventually lead to greater political and military cooperation.

Some may find calls for Islamic unity to be antiquated and even cliched, but the devastation being wrought upon so many parts of the Muslim world shows that the need for unity has never been greater. The civilizational based theory of international competition articulated by Samuel Huntington is becoming more of a reality every day as a multi-polar world largely centered on the world’s great civilizational blocks emerges. As this new international order takes shape, the Islamic world will continue to be a source of instability that will invite further conflict until its nations take the steps necessary to finally end their protracted weakness. Unity among Muslims will not be a panacea that will cure all the Muslim world’s problems, but it would certainly be a step in the right direction.

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Islam is in Crisis and has been for centuries

There is no denying that Islam is in crisis. Comments by France’s President Macron last year may have been cynically timed for political gain but that does not make his statement less true. Anyone looking at a map of the Muslim world would be hard pressed to find a part that is not dealing with a crisis of some sort.

For example, the author recently wrote a lengthy essay arguing that the Palestinians have resoundingly lost the struggle to create their own state here. But Palestine is not the only part of the Muslim world dealing with a violent military occupation. Muslim lands in the Caucasus, Western China, and Kashmir have all been conquered by non-Muslims and forcibly integrated into Russia, China, or India. What made the conquest of Palestine so galvanizing was that it represented the heart of the Muslim world and it was conquered by a band of destitute refugees. Despite fielding a poorly equipped militia (the Haganah), these refugees were able to defeat the forces of six Arab armies and conquer the third holiest city for Muslims, cutting the heart of the Islamic world out in the process. Taking a bird’s eye view, one can easily see that the Islamic world is not only in crisis but that much of it is on fire. 

Military losses on the periphery may not elicit the same emotional response as the conquest of Palestine but they stem from the same root causes because the same factors that led to the Russian, Chinese and Indian conquests of the Muslim world’s extremities also led to the conquest of Palestine. As such, these issues are all related and will only be resolved by policies that can address their common root causes. Until the underlying issues causing Islam’s crisis are fixed, there is little hope for the Muslim world. Anyone interested in resolving the Palestinian issue (or the Kashmir issue, or the Uyghur issue, etc.) must therefore resolve the issues that have afflicted the entire Muslim world first.

The conquest of Muslim lands may be the most visible indication of its weakness, but it is just the tip of the iceberg. Civilizations are rarely conquered by outsiders until they have sufficiently rotted from within. The history of the Islamic world over the past few centuries confirms this view. The same weakness that allowed for the conquest of Palestine and the Muslim world’s periphery has manifested itself throughout it in different ways such that nearly the entire Islamic world is consumed by conflict and instability. Ethnic rivalries such as those between Turks and Kurds or Arabs and Persians have consumed the geo-politics of the region. Afghanistan, Syria, Somalia, Yemen, and Libya are torn by civil conflict and no longer meet the definition of a functioning state while Nigeria, Iraq and Lebanon are perpetually on the cusp of disintegrating too.

Even those Muslims living in supposedly peaceful or stable nations are subject to extreme levels of repression and marginalization. Most Muslim nations feature authoritarian governments that have abysmal human rights records and underdeveloped economies characterized by extreme levels of wealth inequality. These economies have left most of their people stuck in poverty. The intellectual environment, whether measured by the number of patents filed, innovative technological breakthroughs, or freedom of expression is not inspiring either. Until these foundational issues are resolved, Muslims will continue to find themselves subject to violence and repression either at the hands of outside powers or each other.

The military weakness of the Muslim world is the combined result of the underlying weaknesses listed above and has impacted the ability of Muslims to develop advanced armaments industries or perform effectively on the battlefield. Muslims have been unable to develop advanced armaments industries because these capabilities cannot develop without strong economies fueled by technological innovation. They have been unable to develop strong economies because this cannot happen without well run government agencies that can provide a regulatory environment, fiscal policies, and dispute resolution mechanisms conducive to such growth. The autocratic and authoritarian governments prevalent throughout most of the Muslim world have been unable to provide these government services thus they have been unable to oversee economic growth conducive to developing such capabilities.

They have also been unable to nurture technological development because this cannot occur without educational institutions capable of helping students develop their critical thinking and technical skills. But educational institutions cannot thrive without a culture that embraces intellectual honesty and vigorous debate. The combination of authoritarian governments and cultural norms that limit intellectual debate and freedom of expression have therefore prevented the development of educational institutions that can support technological innovation.

These same factors have also contributed to the poor performance of Muslim soldiers even when they are equipped with modern weaponry because they have prevented them from developing the critical thinking skills necessary to thrive in combat. Muslim soldiers, particularly its Arab soldiers, have repeatedly proven themselves to be incompetent on the battlefield. Whether equipped with aging Soviet weapons or fancy American ones, most Muslim armies (there are a few notable exceptions) have shown no ability to master combined arms operations or properly operate or even maintain the weapons they buy. These poor tactical skills have led to numerous military defeats.            

The weakness and instability of the Muslim world is the combined result of its repressive political institutions, underdeveloped economies, stagnant educational institutions, and a political environment and culture that stifles intellectual debate. Though independent, these factors work in unison to keep Muslims weak. Until they are resolved by deep rooted legal, political, and social reforms designed to empower and educate the masses of the Muslim world, Islam will continue to find itself in crisis.

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Non-violent resistance is the best chance the Palestinians have left

On April 13, 1919 British General Reginald Dyer ordered his troops to open fire on a crowd of unarmed Indians in the city of Amritsar. They murdered 379 men, women, and children that day. Despite the inevitable calls for revenge, Mahatma Gandhi worked tirelessly to convince his countrymen that non-violent resistance was still their best chance for freedom. It took nearly thirty years and countless more deaths, beatings, and unjust imprisonments, but Gandhi’s tactics eventually freed the Subcontinent from the evils of imperialism. Martin Luther King borrowed many of Gandhi’s ideas to finally free African Americans from the evils of segregation. Though primarily grounded in value systems that abhorred violence, the choices Gandhi and King made were also a reflection of the fact that they were outgunned by men who had no problem murdering women and children. Non-violence was not just a moral choice, but a necessity born of weakness.

The parallels between these examples and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict should be painfully obvious. The latest fighting claimed the lives of over 250 Palestinians compared to just 12 Israelis. While some may find it crude to compare casualty figures, the huge disparity in these numbers highlights the power differential between both groups and is consistent with numbers from previous conflicts as well. For example, in 2014 Israel killed over 2,100 Palestinians while suffering only 73 fatalities. The lopsided casualties suffered by the Palestinians is based on their inability to match Israel’s military capabilities. They do not have the heavy weapons required to challenge the IDF in a conventional fight and have proven incapable of developing effective guerilla tactics that can do so either. From a military perspective, the Palestinians are incredibly weak while Israelis are incredibly strong.

One of the few American media personalities to correctly diagnose this state of affairs is comedian Trevor Noah who poignantly highlighted on his Daily Show that the Palestinians simply do not have the military ability to protect themselves. Hamas’ ability to attack Israel with rockets may grab headlines but homemade rockets are not going to significantly change the balance of power in this conflict as long as Israel has all the tanks and warplanes. Consequently, the only real path to peace and dignity for the Palestinian people lays in civil disobedience and non-violent resistance aimed at dismantling the Apartheid state most of them have been forced to live in since 1967. Given the serious military imbalance between the parties, this is the only chance for the Palestinians to secure their rights. It also represents their best chance to use the political momentum and sympathy generated from the latest violence to their advantage.

For the most part, the latest round of fighting was depressingly similar to previous bouts of violence that always seem to feature massive Israeli bombardments and disproportionate Palestinian casualties. However, there was one crucial difference this time. For the first time, the Palestinians had vocal support from within the US political establishment. For the first time, Americans are having a conversation about their government’s unequivocal support for Israel. These changing sentiments are still not enough to challenge the vested and powerful interests within America that have always supported Israel, but it shows there is a chink in the armor. And the best way for the Palestinians to exploit this opening is by adopting widespread civil disobedience in which they peacefully refuse to comply with Israel’s Apartheid policies. Doing so would not only secure the moral high ground (given their lack of weapons, this is the only high ground they can hope for), it would also give them new political momentum and significantly change the current dynamics of the conflict which still heavily favors Israel.

Non-violence is the only tactic that has the potential to change the pattern of violence between both parties. Otherwise, these periodic conflagrations will continue repeating themselves because the fundamental dynamics of this conflict will remain unchanged. And the one unchanging fact shaping this conflict for the past 16 years is that Israel has overwhelmingly won both militarily and politically. It won when it crushed the second Intifada and locked Hamas in an open-air prison (along with two million innocent Palestinians for good measure).


The recent détente between Israel and various Arab states and the muted reaction to Israel being labeled an Apartheid state by Human Rights Watch also highlight the degree to which it has won this conflict politically. The sad reality is that the Western world has become numb to the devastation being inflicted upon the Palestinian people. Until this latest round of violence, America’s unwavering support gave Israel carte blanche to do as it pleased to the Arabs under its control and it seemed there was no red line it could cross that would change this, even attacking Islam’s third holiest site during Ramadan. Non-violent resistance is therefore the only path left that has any chance at ending the cycle of violence and securing a favorable outcome for the Palestinians.

The biggest barrier to effectively using such tactics is the fact that no amount of civil disobedience will result in the creation of an independent Palestinian state. Israel’s colonization of the West Bank destroyed that option. The presence of roughly 760,000 settlers and the extensive network of settlements and infrastructure they built across the entire area integrated the West Bank with Israel, creating “facts on the ground” that make building a viable Palestinian state impossible. Many Israelis are adamantly opposed to a one-state solution, but the truth is that their leaders set them on this path the minute they started building settlements in the West Bank (to say nothing of the fact that a nation built in the heart of the Arab world should probably expect to have a few Arab citizens). Israel and the West Bank are already a single state in all but name, controlled by a single political authority. Israel has just hidden behind the legal fiction of the Green Line to create an Apartheid state that denies the Palestinians their fundamental rights.

For non-violence to work, it must be used with a realistic goal in mind that forces Israelis to decide if they would rather live in a Jewish state or a democratic one. And the Palestinians must understand that just because they refuse to resort to violence does not mean Israel will play along. The British did everything they could to goad Indians into fighting back. Similarly, attempts at non-violent protest in Gaza were met by sniper fire in 2018. Israel will do everything in its power to get the Palestinians to keep fighting for the false promise of their own state because violent resistance, even in self-defense, plays into the hands of right-wing Israelis looking to justify their unbelievably hypocritical policies. Despite these obstacles, civil disobedience still represents the best chance for the Palestinians to end their suffering by creating a genuinely democratic state in which all of Israel’s citizens are treated as equals.

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