What has the war in Gaza revealed about the world?

Part IV: the “rules” based international system

This essay was first published here, by the Friday Times on July 16, 2024.

This discussion began by focusing on what the war in Gaza teaches us about America. It will now conclude with an examination of what it reveals about its “rules” based international system. Whereas the lessons gleaned from parts I, II, and III were relatively straight forward, using Gaza to understand the nature of the current international order is more complicated due to America’s contradictory behavior and blatant gaslighting.

For example, Jeffery Cimmino and Matthew Kroenig state the Pax Americana is designed to promote stability throughout the world by encouraging “peaceful, predictable, and cooperative behavior among states that is consistent with liberal values and principles” while placing “limits on the use of military force” and advancing “democratic values and human rights.” However, America’s unequivocal support for apartheid Israel and the massacre it unleashed on Gaza’s civilians suggests these lofty principles have no real connection to its actions. Given the disconnect between its stated ideals and actions, this discussion will focus on America’s behavior to determine three aspects of the international system it created, namely, when does it allow people to wage war, does it protect civilians during war, and whether it truly promotes democracy.

WHEN IS WAR JUSTIFIED?

Men have traditionally waged war for power, wealth, women, and territory. Every once and a while they build empires that pretend to aspire to greater things like God or democracy to justify their actions, but organized violence is rarely noble or moral. In the aftermath of WW2, the nations of the world tried to create a new international order based on the idea that war must only be waged as a last resort. The United Nations (UN) was founded to ensure states had peaceful ways of resolving their disputes to try and avoid future wars. Unfortunately, the five nations empowered to keep the peace were also some of the biggest arms dealers on the planet and each had its own imperial or neo-imperial ambitions. Thus, the system failed. It is mostly irrelevant now, but the UN charter is still meant to govern the conduct of nations, including when they are permitted to wage war.

Though some have tried to make nonsensical distinctions between “wars of choice” and “wars of necessity” to suggest otherwise, from a moral and legal perspective, war is only ever justified as a means of self-defense or coming to the defense of others in extreme situations. The right to self-defense is an almost universally acknowledged concept best characterized as a natural or innate right that is enshrined in most legal systems including Article 51 of the UN charter. In theory, the idea that violence is only ever justified as a defensive action should be easy to apply. Gaza, and by extension the entire Israeli-Palestinian conflict, prove otherwise.

Despite what many in the West would like to believe, Oct. 7th did not happen in a vacuum. It happened within the context of Israel’s 16-year blockade of Gaza, its total rejection of diplomacy including several attempts by Hamas to negotiate a long-term peace, its apartheid system, 75 years of conquest and ethnic cleansing and its policy of occasionally “mowing the grass,” which is a disgusting euphemism popular in the West that refers to Israel’s policy of preemptively attacking and murdering Palestinians. During the two years preceding this attack, Israel’s extremist government did everything it could to provoke the Palestinians by desecrating their places of worship and murdering a record number of children. It even attacked Gaza five months before Oct. 7th in May of 2023, killing nine civilians, including 3 children.

In addition to brutalizing the Palestinians, Israel has spent years waging a relentless bombing and clandestine campaign against Iran and its allies because of their support for the Palestinians. It has bombed Lebanon and Syria hundreds of times. It is also responsible for murdering numerous high ranking Iranian government officials and conducting several acts of sabotage on its infrastructure. It even helped America murder General Soleimani, one of Iran’s highest-ranking officers who worked in a hybrid role roughly comparable to being the head of the CIA and America’s special forces command. As the recent strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria shows, Israel’s aggression has only grown over the past eight months. Inexplicably, Muslims are denied the right to defend themselves from this violence. They can neither respond to protect themselves nor intervene to save Palestine’s defenseless people.

On the other end of the spectrum, we are frequently reminded that Israel’s right to defend itself is absolute and expansive. Israel’s supporters have gone out of their way to frame its massacre as an act of self-defense meant to prevent future attacks. But the IDF regained control of the border within two days of the initial attack. It killed, captured, or expelled Hamas’ entire force, ending the threat they posed. Once Israel reinforced the border with its tanks and armored fighting vehicles, there was zero possibility of a repeat attack. That Hamas was able to inflict as much damage as it did, given its limited arsenal of light weapons, was shocking and mostly due to catching Israel off guard. But pretending it has the capabilities for a repeat performance is ridiculous. As such, nothing that has happened since that day can reasonably be described as self-defense. The slaughter Israel has carried out can only be classified as revenge and collective punishment.  

The current war in Gaza and the entire conquest of Palestine reveals a tiered international system in which a privileged few are allowed to wage war while others must never resort to violence, no matter the provocation. Americans and Israelis, as members of the West, can use violence whenever they deem it necessary and have no limits on who or how many they can kill. Whereas Muslims must meekly accept their fate when they are attacked, lest they be labeled “terrorists” and subjected to more violence.

Gaza is but one example of many that prove the point. When the countless other invasions and violent actions America has committed or enabled, like the invasions of Vietnam and Iraq or the insurgencies it supported in Central America are considered, the pattern shows America and its allies enjoy a monopoly on violence. They are allowed to do anything to feel safe, even if that means destroying another country for no reason at all or murdering entire families in their homes as they sleep.

Men still wage war for the same reasons they always have in the Pax Americana. The only difference is when they are armed with weapons made in America, their cause is automatically considered just. To oppose such men, even if they are stealing your land or bombing your family, is a crime.

ARE CIVILIANS PROTECTED DURING WAR?

Hamas’s attack killed over 1200 Israelis, 377 of whom were security personnel and 845 of whom were civilians. It also took over 250 hostages, including women and children. As such, its attack was condemned in the West because it intentionally targeted civilians. President Biden described it as “abhorrent” and “unadulterated evil” that caused harm to “innocent civilians.” The US House of Representatives passed a resolution denouncing it as “barbaric” while one Western commentator argued the violence Israel has inflicted on the Palestinians over the decades did not justify Oct 7th because, “no amount of context justifies killing babies.” These responses were largely due to the belief that Hamas broke the rules by targeting civilians, which is consistent with the idea that the Pax Americana limits the use of military force by protecting innocents during war.

The problem, of course, is that Israel’s response has killed or maimed tens of thousands of civilians. Not only has it killed a staggering number of innocents, but as we have discussed throughout this series, it did so intentionally. Its rules of engagement and targeting practices led it to launch missile strikes on the homes of Palestinian families at night while they were sleeping if its AI software decided one of them might be involved with Hamas. That they were full of children or that Hamas’ fighters were hiding underground was deemed irrelevant. 

Once again, Gaza reveals a double standard. Just as westerners are the only ones who have the right to protect themselves and can wage war under a definition of self-defense so broad it loses all meaning; their civilians are off limits too. Palestinian civilians, on the other hand, are fair game. They can be shot, beaten, carpet bombed, starved, arrested en masse, held without trial indefinitely, tortured or expelled from their homes. Similarly, their homes, hospitals, schools, and places of worship are legitimate targets too.  

In truth, this dynamic has been obvious since the end of WW2, which America concluded by firebombing residential neighborhoods in Tokyo and then dropping two atomic bombs on cities full of women and children. Charges related to the intentional bombing of civilians by German and Japanese officials were even dropped during the Nuremberg and Tokyo trials because the Allies were guilty of committing similar crimes. In fact, one of the few successful defenses available to these officials was pointing to similar conduct on the part of the Allies. Through these proceedings, the founders of the Pax Americana began their reign by giving themselves legal license to murder women and children.

Gaza is just one more example that proves when America, or those it empowers, wage war, they are allowed to murder women and children with impunity. Even an attack on a purely military target like Pearl Harbor will be deemed an offense worthy of burning 100,000 civilians to death. But any attempt to target civilians who deserve protection according to Western eyes, like Ukrainians, Israelis, or Americans, will be met with passionate condemnation and a massive escalation in violence.

DOES THE PAX AMERICANA REALLY PROMOTE DEMOCRACY?

To answer this question, we must look beyond Gaza since the current war does not directly touch on this issue. Thankfully, America’s support for apartheid Israel does. There are over 2.8 million Palestinians in the West Bank who have been forced to live under a brutal military occupation and apartheid system since 1967. None of these people have any say over the government that controls their lives and America has actively supported Israel in denying them their right to self-determination for decades. America’s unequivocal support for apartheid Israel unequivocally shows it does not promote democratic values or human rights.

As usual, Palestine is merely part of a broader pattern. In addition to supporting apartheid Israel in its quest to oppress the Palestinians, America has a long history of supporting dictators and juntas across the world. Since listing all the dictators America has armed and supported over the years would take entirely too much space, we will limit ourselves to just a few examples. It is currently the primary arms dealer to the tyrants who rule Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, and nearly every other Arab country. Without America’s support, the iron grip these dictators have on their societies would be considerably looser.

America’s support for the region’s despots is just the tip of the iceberg. It has also quietly helped undermine or topple the few democratic movements in the region. According to Shadi Hamid, the Obama Administration effectively gave Egypt’s generals the “greenlight” to overthrow their nation’s first democratically elected government. This assertion is supported by its remarkably muted condemnation of their coup and the haste with which it restored ties once the junta was in power, even after it mercilessly slaughtered over 1,000 demonstrators on the streets of Cairo. Mr. Hamid’s work has shed light on the extent to which America actively helped overthrow Egyptian democracy, though its leaders have done their best to obscure these facts.

Given the degree to which Egypt’s military depends on America for many of its weapons, like the F16s it flies or the M1 Abram tanks that form a substantial part of its armored units, it should be obvious, as a matter of simple logic, that Egypt’s generals would never do anything to jeopardize their access to these weapons. As such, it is highly unlikely they would overthrow their government without first getting permission from their favorite arms dealer.    

America played a similar role in toppling Tunisia’s democratic government too, going so far as to deny a coup had even taken place, and has spent decades undermining Pakistan’s civilian rulers while empowering its generals. But nothing illustrates its hostility to democracy in the Muslim world better than its relationship with Turkey. Even with its restrictions on free speech, Turkey’s claim to the title of the only democracy in the Middle East is superior to Israel’s since it has not violently disenfranchised millions of people under its control based solely on their ethnicity. Despite being the only democracy in the Middle East and the frequent proclamations America’s leaders make regarding their preference for working with other democracies, Turkey’s relationship with America has come under increased strain over the past few decades.

Many analysts like to pretend the souring in relations between these two once stalwart allies is due to Turkey’s “democratic back sliding” or disproportionately blame Turkish President Erdogan’s personal ambitions. Nothing could be further from the truth. The primary catalyst for Turkey’s growing rift with the West was its rejection by the E.U, which unmoored and set it adrift from the Western bloc. A secondary driver of this shift is the fact that Turkey’s government has become more responsive to the desires of its people, which is a function of the growing inclusivity of its political system particularly as it relates to the growth of Turkish civil society. Though it is still flawed in serious ways, Turkey’s democracy is getting stronger. As its democratic system has entrenched itself and grown from the shadow of the generals who so frequently tried to control it, Turkey’s leaders have been forced to act according to the wishes of their constituents. The tensions between Turkey and the West are therefore partially due to the fact that its government now gives expression to the Pan-Islamic sentiments of its people. President Erdogan’s passionate denunciations of Israel and embrace of Hamas are just two examples that show how these sentiments impact his rhetoric and policies.

Taken together, these facts show America is actively opposed to the spread of democracy in the Muslim world. Which makes sense considering its goal is to subjugate the region to its interests. Democratic Muslim governments are harder to control and more likely to enact policies that challenge America’s hegemonic policies. A democratic Egypt, for example, would never have worked with Israel to blockade Gaza, just as a democratic Turkey has become more willing to condemn Israeli excesses.

TYING IT ALL TOGETHER

Gaza reveals the true nature of the Pax Americana by showing it is a system that treats Muslim children as legitimate targets during war and denies their parents the rights to defend or govern themselves. As a system predicated on war and domination, it is not based on a set of definable rules but force and coercion. It is designed to violently maintain America’s control over the Muslim world and its resources. Which finally brings us to Gaza’s most important lesson.

America and Israel represent an immediate and existential threat to the peace and prosperity of not just the Palestinians, but the entire Muslim world. They have chosen the path of war and have no interest in real peace. Instead of recognizing that the choice to build Israel on Arab land means they must learn to live as equals with Palestinians, they have chosen apartheid and slaughter. Both believe they have the right to attack any part of the Muslim world they deem fit and have proven capable of mercilessly massacring children in pursuit of their goals.

By any sane measure, meaning one that values all human life equally regardless of the faith or identity of the victims, America has been an agent of chaos, violence, and repression throughout the region. One can only hope those responsible for its crimes live long enough to see justice. There is no statute of limitations on mass murder, after all. Just as Israel’s spies famously tracked down Nazi officials decades after WW2, there must come a day when its soldiers and politicians are dragged before tribunals to face justice for their transgressions alongside their American accomplices.

Before that can happen, Muslims must take the steps needed to protect themselves. Given the unhinged people Israelis and Americans keep choosing to lead them, their racist world views, lethal arsenals, and history of using chemical or nuclear weapons against defenseless women and children, Muslims should be very frightened of the type of violence they are capable of unleashing. The only way to put an end to the threat they pose is by finally taking the long overdue steps needed to build strong states that can defend them and work together.

The key to doing that is building inclusive and democratic political and social systems and institutions that can lead to the economic and technological growth they so desperately need. Muslim nations do not need more guns but more factories, start-ups, universities, research institutes, laboratories, political parties, and independent and honest judges, prosecutors, and journalists. Societies that do not possess such ingredients are incapable of building prosperous economies driven by innovation and technological growth which means they are incapable of building powerful militaries armed with the most advanced weapons.   

These ingredients will also help bring Muslims together, which is the only way to counter the Western coalition’s far greater strength. There is no single Muslim state powerful enough to stand up to America and its friends. The Arab, Central Asian, and African parts of the Muslim world are too weak or servile to be of any use in this regard while those in Southeast Asia are too remote. As such, the burden must fall to Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan. It is only by creating a deep-rooted alliance between these nations that Muslims have any chance at finally ending the neo-colonial dynamics that have ensnared them and regaining sovereignty over their lands in both name and fact.

America realized the possibilities of such an alliance decades ago when it created CENTO. The logic that compelled it to do so is still sound. Combining the power of these three nations would give them the strength to protect the Muslim world while stabilizing a large chunk of it. Turkish and Pakistani leaders may not wish to openly break with America, but any fool can see this is inevitable and necessary. America has denied both nations its most advanced weapons while offering them to their archrivals in Greece and India. It is investing in India’s defense industry while sanctioning Pakistan’s and it has an unstated policy of ensuring no Muslim state can ever develop enough power to threaten Israel or its control of the region. Whether they realize it or not, Pakistan and Turkey have no choice but to create an alliance with Iran. All three desperately need each other.

Effectively combining their powers will require linking them on multiple levels. They must create free trade zones reinforced by infrastructure designed to increase the flow of people, goods, and ideas between them. Encouraging tourism by creating international organizations designed to increase people to people contact like sports leagues and professional, civil, trade, and academic associations would also be wise. Even something as simple as starting a soccer league featuring teams from each country would go a long way towards building the sort of ties that can bind these nations. Most importantly, they must create fair and transparent ways for their people to trade with each other on a large scale. The best way to do that is by creating democratic systems based on the rule of law. Which highlights, yet again, the desperate need to build such systems. Bringing these nations together represents the Muslim world’s best hope for finally ending the pattern of conquests and massacres that have plagued it for centuries.

As explained in Part III, it is only a matter of time before America implodes. Its decline will add to the chaos over the short term but may bring some reprieve over the long run. The problem is that at some point, another nation will step in and the same dynamics that prevented Muslims from protecting themselves from the West will still exist. Due to its unique geographic position as a bridge that connects Western Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, India, and China, there will always be powerful states with an interest in controlling the Muslim world. As a result, Muslims nations must remain vigilant about safeguarding their freedoms.  As Palestine shows, the price for failing in this vigilance is paid in blood. If Muslims ever want the bloodshed to stop, they will need to make some serious changes to their societies consistent with the ideas discussed above. Until they do, they will be forced to obey the ridiculous “rules” others impose on them.

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What has the war in Gaza revealed about the world?

Part III: Muslims in America

This essay was first published here, by the Friday Times on July 10th, 2024.

We will now focus on what lessons the carnage in Gaza holds for America’s Muslims. To appreciate the full impact of this war, one must first understand how it fits within the context of America’s relationship with the wider Muslim world, which has largely been shaped by its desire to control the Middle East’s energy resources and make sure no Muslim state can threaten apartheid Israel.

In pursuit of these goals, it established de facto military control over much of the Middle East. It has had bases in Turkey since the advent of the Cold War, but once that conflict ended it used Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait as a pretext to establish a permanent military presence in the Gulf. As the recent attacks on its forces in Jordan, Iraq, and Syria show, it has troops scattered throughout the region. It maintains several air squadrons composed of advanced fighters, bombers, and drones and a permanent naval presence in the region that includes constantly rotating at least one aircraft carrier battle group into either the eastern Mediterranean Sea or Persian Gulf. In total, America has roughly 60-80k troops in the region on any given day. 

In addition to its substantial military presence, it has managed to ensure every Arab state, except Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Sudan, is governed by dictators who must comply with its wishes. To make sure Muslim states are ruled by compliant rulers, it has employed the full spectrum of violence from assassinations and coups to all out invasions. It has also used special forces, drone strikes, and the occasional missile volley to quiet those opposed to its agenda. However, its preferred method of control is selling weapons to Muslim states, thereby making them dependent on America to maintain and equip their militaries. Through these various mechanisms, it has established a form of neo-imperial military control over much of the region and fittingly given it a neo-colonial façade.

It has achieved this power by inflicting unspeakable pain and suffering throughout the region. Gaza is but the latest in a long line of massacres America has committed or enabled against Muslims. An estimated 576,000 Iraqi children died because of the sanctions it imposed before the 2003 invasion, another 4.5 million died because of the War on Terror, and its support and weapons allowed Saudi Arabia to kill 377,000 Yemenis and Egypt to jail 60,000 non-violent political prisoners. Due to these actions, as well as many others we simply do not have the space to list, America has the blood of millions of innocents on its hands.

In sum, at the same time America was inviting Muslims from all over the world to its shores via immigration policies that made it easy for educated professionals to settle there, it was also violently attacking their homelands or supporting the brutal regimes that may have prompted some of them to seek new homes. Given this history and its long-standing support for apartheid Israel, being Muslim in America has always been complicated. By virtue of its decades long attempt to subjugate and control the Muslim world, America’s Muslims have often been in the uneasy position of being viewed and treated as a fifth column who cannot be fully trusted. As a result, dealing with bigotry and Islamophobia is an implicit part of the Muslim American experience.

Despite everything, America’s Muslims have thrived as a community. The Economist went so far as to call the twenty year period after 9/11 a “golden age” for us in which our population doubled and our influence grew. Until eight months ago, we were fully integrated into the fabric of American life and enmeshed in the pursuit of our American dreams.

Gaza has shattered those dreams. The images of mutilated and lifeless Palestinian children have reminded us that America is still perfectly capable of massacring Muslims while hiding behind vile, racist justifications to obscure its crimes. Watching Gaza’s poor people brutally murdered from afar and living in and paying taxes to the country enabling these crimes has been excruciatingly painful.

It has also led to action. As a community, America’s Muslims have spoken out loudly in defense of Gaza’s children. We have marched, petitioned our leaders, and even blocked traffic to bring attention to their plight. Despite our desperate pleas and the overwhelming evidence of Israel’s crimes, most have demonized, dismissed or ignored us. Instead of listening, many accused us of being terrorist sympathizers, pro-Hamas, or antisemitic. Congressman Mike Rollins went so far as to praise blatantly racist counter protesters in Mississippi, one of whom was mimicking an ape and gesturing towards a Pro-Palestinian African American protester. But Mr. Collins is hardly the only bigot in Congress. Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian-American member of Congress, was censured by 234 of her colleagues for daring to object to the slaughter of her people and call for their freedom. On the other hand, Brian Mast faced no consequences for justifying the murder of Palestinian babies by comparing them to Nazis.

These officials are merely a reflection of the society that elected them. America has always tolerated violence and discrimination towards Muslims. Since the start of this war, our children have been stabbed and shot. We have been fired from our jobs, arrested, expelled from our schools, sued, and even barred from speaking at our graduations. All because we refuse to be silent when Israel’s military murders children or ignore that it is a brutal apartheid state guilty of denying millions of Palestinians their basic human rights for nearly 60 years.

While all of this has been going on, most Americans have proven they simply do not care. About the mass murder their government is enabling in Gaza, or the blatant discrimination Muslim Americans face. Aside from a small, vocal minority, most have done their best to ignore Israel’s crimes and their nation’s role in aiding them.

The cumulative weight of this data reveals some very harsh truths. The most obvious: America’s Muslims are second class citizens who do not have the same right to express ourselves as our neighbors. Even when our government actively helps slaughter thousands of children, we must accept its actions without dissent or suffer the consequences. Despite our increased numbers and influence, neither our lives nor our voices matter. Not only do they not matter, but those who insist on expressing them will be silenced.

In many ways, Gaza reinforces what we have known the whole time. Muslims in America will always be viewed with suspicion and hostility. Even when we fully embrace the American ethos and fight for universal concepts like defending children from mass murder, we will be vilified, then ignored.

Gaza has reminded us how precarious it is to be Muslim in America. Nothing proves the point better than the upcoming presidential election. Our choices are Genocide Joe Biden, a self-described Zionist guilty of enabling the worst massacre of Palestinians since 1948 or Donald Trump, another self-described Zionist who believes his opponent has shown too much restraint in trying to limit Israel’s massacre. The only difference between these men is that one gaslights and lies to deflect criticism of his crimes while the other openly embraces and celebrates them. But when it comes to valuing Muslim lives or protecting children from slaughter, they are the same.  

Which leads us to another even harsher truth: Muslims do not belong in America. We are not wanted, and will not be safe if we stay here. As referenced in Part I, America is not on a sound trajectory. Over the next few decades, several seemingly unrelated factors will come together to cause economic and political upheaval of the sort that often leads to violence.

The starting point for such a discussion must begin with the massive debt America has accumulated to pay for its hegemonic ambitions and the exponential rate at which the interest payments required to service it are growing. This expense will cost $12.4 trillion over the next decade, making it the largest item in the budget and creating an unsustainable situation in which America will be printing and borrowing money to pay interest on the money it has already printed and borrowed. In an ironic twist, the debt Ronald Reagan first took on to pay for the arms race that bankrupted the Soviets now threatens to do the same to America. It is no longer difficult to imagine a day when it reaches $70-80 trillion, and the interest payments alone consume more than the federal government collects in tax receipts.  

Aside from printing the dollar into oblivion, America’s leaders have also been entering into free trade agreements that incentivized their companies to shift their manufacturing operations overseas. These agreements have caused millions of once high paying factory jobs to disappear. What was once described as the world’s workshop now consistently imports far more than it exports and has had an incredibly weak balance of payments for over thirty years in a row. This has had wide ranging political, social, and economic effects, the most obvious of which is the MAGA movement. As America’s leaders continue to debase their currency, paying for the massive quantity of goods and inputs their economy no longer produces will become prohibitively expensive. The destabilizing impact of dismantling its manufacturing base will only grow over the next few decades.

The root cause of America’s financial distress is its insistence on maintaining a military that can simultaneously control Western Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. America’s military is not built to protect the homeland but to project power throughout nearly the entire world. Due to its hegemonic ambitions, it has spent an obscene amount of money on national security over the years and continues to do so. It spent $21 trillion on its military between just 9/11 and 2021 and another $1.7 trillion in 2022 and 2023, which accounts for most of its $34 trillion debt. In its quest to dominate the world, America maxed out its credit cards and the bills are starting to come due.

Alas, its corporate military interests now have such a strangle hold on its political economy that having an honest conversation about the desperate need to stand down and re-adjust the country’s spending and national security priorities is impossible. Instead of being honest about its dire finances, America’s elite wax on about silly ideas like modern monetary theory. Its rival political factions can only agree on massive spending packages that further add to its debt and their desire to dominate the world.  Due to their refusal to accept simple truths, America’s leaders have overextended themselves.

Having dismantled the factories that were the true source of their nation’s power, they no longer have the resources to control Eurasia from end to end. Not only have they overextended themselves, but they have gone against decades of very sensible policies that sought to prevent China and Russia from coming to together by doing everything in their power to unite these giants and their interior lines of communication. If Eurasia is the world island, America is firmly on the outside, looking in, and trying to dominate from the perimeter.

From both a financial and geopolitical perspective, America’s leaders are doing everything possible to accelerate their own demise. When historians look back at their fall, they will probably describe it as the greatest own goal in history. America is arguably the most geographically blessed political entity that has ever existed. It possesses formidable natural defenses that could have allowed it to spend a minimal amount on its military. Rather than use these blessings to strengthen themselves by educating their people and building world class infrastructure to maintain their considerable economic advantages, its leaders spent the past eighty years investing in war and hegemony. In doing so, they have neglected the true source of civilizational power, namely, economic, scientific, and industrial infrastructure and capabilities.

The only thing propping up this house of cards is the dollar, which is the currency of choice for people and governments throughout the globe. In their drive to control the world, America’s leaders are doing their best to change this. They have turned their control of the dollar and the international trading system that relies on it into a cudgel to punish their enemies and coerce any who might disobey their wishes. In doing so, they are incentivizing the rest of the world to find a substitute currency that cannot be controlled from Washington DC. The long-term economic consequences of using the dollar as a geopolitical weapon will ultimately be reduced demand that lessens its value.

Combined these factors will lead to a variety of woes like hyperinflation, exorbitant taxes, high interest rates, higher input costs, reduced investment, diminished public services, and insolvency. These will, in turn, lead to spiraling social and political chaos. By themselves, these developments would be enough to cause violence, but they are not the only trends to consider. At the same time its finances are collapsing, America will also be undergoing significant demographic changes that will only add to the tumult. By 2045, white people will no longer form the majority in America.  

Western societies have frequently featured overtly racist ideologies and discriminatory policies that violently oppressed people based on their faith, race, or ethnicity. The Inquisition, the various progroms against Jews culminating in the Holocaust, the Atlantic slave trade, the genocide perpetrated against Native Americans, America’s and South Africa’s histories as apartheid states, the internment of Japanese Americans during WW2, and Israeli apartheid all have their origins in the Western world’s bigoted and violently xenophobic cultures. These values have been an important component of the Western ethos for centuries and, as Gaza shows, still shape the perspectives of many Americans. Considering this history, it is not unfair to wonder how white people will react to having to share power as a minority, particularly since their declining numbers and power will be accompanied by significant economic upheaval.

As January 6th showed, there are already large swathes of white America who feel alienated and marginalized by the way their country is changing. As their share of the population shrinks, these feelings will only grow. That awful day may have marked the first violent coup attempt in America’s history, but it will not be the last.

Over the decades, America has trained millions of its men in the arts of subverting governments and organized violence. It has also made it easy for them to arm themselves. As the world’s preeminent merchant of death, America is flooded with weapons. There are over 400 million personal firearms floating around the country. According to the Washington Post, 20 million of them are AR15 style assault rifles. In addition to personal firearms, America is one of the world’s leading manufacturers of jet fighters, tanks, armored fighting vehicles, large caliber machine guns, rocket launchers, drones, and literally anything else needed to kill or maim human beings en masse. It features warehouses, factories, military bases, storage depots, and armories full of the tools needed to level places like Gaza. Each of its fifty states even has its own military.

Climate change will only make things worse. The increasing severity and frequency of large-scale natural disasters like wildfires, flooding, and exceptionally strong hurricanes and storms has already caused some insurance companies to abandon several particularly vulnerable states like Florida and Iowa. As the scale of these disasters grows, the costs and impact will too. The burden to rebuild and make the victims whole will ultimately fall to a federal government drowning in debt and therefore unable to adequately cope.

Predicting the exact fallout when these trends collide is obviously impossible. Nevertheless, it is possible to analyze this data, compare it to additional data from the historical record, and use this information to make logical inferences and extrapolations. A reasonable analysis of the macro-trends suggests large scale violence is a very real possibility within the next few decades and that America will soon find itself in serious trouble. Of course, “soon” is a relative term in the historical scheme of things. The Abbasid, Roman, and Ottoman Empires took centuries to fully collapse and be reborn. America seems poised to follow a similar path.  

It is certainly possible its leaders react to the collapse of the dollar by peacefully dismantling the security state they have built, thereby managing a soft landing for the end of Pax Americana. However, given the number of resources they have invested into war and death and the degree to which this has warped their minds, this is not a likely scenario. A society that empowers men like Congressman Thomas Massie, who sends holiday greeting cards showing his family armed with assault rifles, is unlikely to react rationally.

The more likely scenario is that the same people who stormed the Capitol blame this collapse on a “woke” Federal government and react by launching an insurgency that eventually grows into a civil war. They may not even wait for the dollar to collapse and could easily resort to violence if Donald Trump is imprisoned or the next time they refuse to admit they lost an election.  

These possibilities present America’s Muslims with impossible choices. Do we stay where we are not wanted and may not be safe, or do we return to the Muslim world and the hyenas and jackals who rule it?  We will not fare well in an America experiencing economic collapse and social unrest. As a visible minority that has always been viewed with hostility, we would be particularly vulnerable to violence and systemic abuse if the situation devolves into lawlessness or civil war. But for the reasons addressed in Part II, returning to our homelands is fraught with danger too. It will be up to each of us to consider our unique situations when deciding what path to take. Both are full of peril and risks.  

When making this choice, the author can only suggest that the skills and capital we have acquired during our stay in the West might be put to good use in those few Muslim countries like Turkey, Bosnia, Malaysia, or Indonesia that have more inclusive political, social, and economic systems. If we were to move to these countries in sufficient numbers, it is entirely possible we could have a positive impact like the one Crusaders returning from the Holy Land had on Europe so long ago. Their experiences in the more developed Muslim world changed their tastes and perspectives, sparking changes that eventually led to Europe’s Renaissance. There may come a day when America’s Muslims have no choice but to try and spark a similar transformation in their former homelands. Those Muslims who would prefer to avoid the anarchy and upheaval that is sure to accompany America’s looming implosion would do well to start planning for that day now.   

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What has the war in Gaza revealed about the world?

Part II: the Muslim world

This essay was first published here, by the Friday Times on July 6th, 2024.

Having discussed what truths the war in Gaza reveals about America, it is now time to consider what it has shown us about the Muslim world. Here, the lesson is simple and has been painfully obvious for a long time. The Muslim world is incredibly weak.

Not one of its 57 nations had the power to stop Israel from murdering Gaza’s defenseless people. Over 14,000 Palestinian children have died so far. Many were just babies or toddlers who were intentionally murdered in their homes as they slept because Israeli soldiers decided it was more cost effective to kill their fathers while they were asleep among their loved ones. Instead of trying to protect these children, nearly the entire Muslim world impotently watched as they were torn apart by Israeli and American bombs and missiles.

The Arab world’s reaction was particularly muted and cowardly. But the Arabs were hardly alone in standing aside while the IDF was busy massacring children. Muslim leaders across the world busied themselves issuing scathing press releases denouncing Israel’s crimes. Turkey, to its credit, even cut off trade ties. But most of them took no real action.

Those few who tried, like Iran and its allies, were immediately labeled “terrorists” and attacked. Since Oct. 7th, Israel and America have worked hard to prevent this conflict from “escalating” by bombing Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Iran. Hundreds have been killed and the message sent: anyone who tries to help the Palestinians will suffer.  

Aside from the Houthis and Hezbollah, the entire Muslim world has been cowed into submission. Though the willingness of Yemen’s and Lebanon’s fighters to engage Israel’s far more powerful forces is certainly commendable, the sad truth is their arsenals are inferior in every way. They do not possess air defenses that can protect them from Israel’s deadly fleet of F35s and F15s. Nor do they possess fighter aircraft that can match them. As such, they are forced to cede control of the skies to their adversaries and suffer immensely as a result.

Their supporters in Iran possess a more potent arsenal; however, it is still qualitatively inferior to Israel’s in every way. Iran has a few 3rd and 4th generation fighters it purchased from Russia and China and has even managed to keep some of its vintage American gear working. But on their best days, none of them can match the lethality of Israel’s and America’s fighters. Similarly, its air defenses would quickly be overwhelmed by a determined Western led bombing campaign. Perhaps most consequential of all, Iran is highly vulnerable to cyber-attacks that could disable large chunks of its infrastructure in the event of a war.

Iran and its proxies suffer from the same weakness as every other Muslim nation. They cannot build the same sort of advanced weapons as their adversaries. Their economies and industrial bases are too backwards and underdeveloped. Many, like Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey have worked hard to close the gap in manufacturing and technological abilities. None have fully succeeded.

Iran has come a long way since the days it was forced to use human wave tactics to defend itself against Iraq’s forces. It has built an industrial base that can supply its military with moderately capable weapons like ballistic missiles and drones; however, its technological and manufacturing capabilities are still primitive in many ways. This has prevented it from building aircraft or air defense systems that can protect it. Even its vaunted drones are built from mostly imported parts. Its economy suffers from numerous structural defects, some imposed by the West, most self-inflicted and related to its corrupt and repressive government.  

Pakistan, as a nuclear power, is considered to have the most powerful military in the Muslim world but lacks the means to project power far beyond its borders. Its economy is hopelessly inefficient and most of its “factories” are used to assemble imported parts rather than build goods they can sell to the world. As a result, Pakistan developed neo-colonial relationships with America and then China to supply it with the arms it cannot build itself. Its forces still use several American made weapons, like the F16 fighter jet. Since Pakistan is dependent on America for the spare parts needed to maintain these aircraft, it could never take a strong stance against Israel for fear of being cut off from them. In fact, it is so wary of angering America it cannot even build a gas pipeline with Iran without first asking for permission.

Turkey is also one of the Muslim world’s most powerful states. It has a well-developed manufacturing base and a strong military. However, it must still import its most advanced weapons like the S-400 air defense system it purchased from Russia or the F35 fighters it was supposed to buy from America before being cut off due to the S-400 purchase. Despite years of trying, Turkey has been unable to build a jet with capabilities like the F35. Due to these constraints and the fact that many of its weapons require spare parts imported or licensed from America, Turkey also suffers from critical vulnerabilities that prevent it from meaningfully helping the Palestinians.

In addition to suffering from similar industrial and technological deficiencies, the conventional military forces of the Arab world are incompetent on the battlefield. Saudi Arabia, for example, is the fifth largest military spender in the world and possesses an array of deadly American weapons. Despite spending hundreds of billions to arm itself, the Saudi military is useless. It is entirely dependent on American and Pakistani mercenaries to function on a day-to-day basis and its officers have proven incapable of properly using their sophisticated American weaponry.

Saudi Arabia is, in many ways, representative of the rest of the Arab world, which has become a bastion of incompetence, cowardice, repression and regressive thought. Arab leaders, particularly those in the Gulf, are an anchor keeping the Muslim world stuck in place while slowly pulling it under the waves. Though some have implemented superficial social reforms, none have embraced the sort of political changes that could truly free their people. Instead, those who rule the Gulf have worked hard to destroy any trace of democracy in the region as evidenced by the significant roles they played in the coups that toppled Egypt’s and Tunisia’s democratic governments and even Sudan’s recent descent into civil war.  

Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are some of the most powerful Muslim nations and yet each suffers from similar weaknesses, to varying degrees, that have prevented them from developing the industrial and technological capabilities needed to build militaries that are not dependent on outside powers for support. Aside from Saudi Arabia, they have managed to build decent military industrial complexes capable of producing heavy weapons like tanks and artillery, but they are still incapable of building the most advanced weapons they need. For example, outside of Malaysia, no Muslim nations have the foundries needed to make the weapon most vital for modern warfare: microchips. Due to their technical deficiencies, Muslim societies are still hopelessly outgunned by the Western and Russian armies that have been invading them and massacring their people for centuries. As a result, they simply do not have the power to protect Gaza’s children. Which raises the question of why. Why have Muslims been so weak, for so long?

Like America, the Muslim world’s dysfunction can be traced to its relationship with the truth. In the Muslim world, the truth is forbidden. The tyrants who have ruled it for centuries refuse to allow their people to speak their minds about anything that might threaten their power, under penalty of death or jail. Even democratic Turkey features a stifling intellectual climate in which saying or tweeting something critical of its leaders can lead to jail time. By suppressing the truth, Muslim leaders have crippled the ability of their societies to evolve or have honest conversations about complicated issues.  A society that forbids people from expressing themselves will always be weak because it will always be ruled by dictators who rely on force instead of persuasion to sustain their power. When a society is ruled through force, its leaders’ only preoccupation will be doing whatever it takes to hold onto their power and the privileges and impunity that comes with it. As the Muslim world shows, this is the path to weakness, servitude, and slaughter.  

Muslims have been ruled by dictators for so long, they have lost sight of some fundamental truths. The first and most obvious: they will remain weak until they build governments designed to empower and educate their people, not oppress and control them. To do so, they must establish democratic and inclusive political systems based on the rule of law that guarantee freedom of expression. That is the surest path to nurturing the economic and technological development needed to build powerful militaries.

Inexplicably, some Muslims have argued democracy is not compatible with Islamic values. Scholars working for Iran’s Qajar dynasty went so far as to proclaim monarchies are the only type of government sanctioned by Islamic law. However, as discussed in more detail here, even an elementary understanding of Islamic history shows hereditary monarchies, like the one that rules Saudi Arabia today, are patently un-Islamic and that democracy is the only form of governance consistent with Islamic values.

The early Islamic period is referred to as the Rashidun era and corresponds to the reigns of the first four Caliphs to rule the Islamic world. Many Muslims believe the precedents established during this period represent the ideal towards which they should aspire, and that contemporary governments should be modeled after their example. Groups such as ISIS have even waged war to try and re-establish their own version of the Caliphate, while the Taliban claim to model their government after it. But they do not understand the defining characteristics of the government they idealize or the lessons they should learn from its example.

Though some of the details surrounding the appointment of the Rashidun are unclear, certain facts are not in dispute. Not one of Islam’s first four Caliphs used violence or the threat of violence to secure their reigns. They were chosen by building a consensus through dialogue between members of the community, including its women. Not one of them tried to pass power onto their son either. Instead, each left the choice of successor to the community or engaged it in the selection process when circumstances allowed.

The Caliphate may not have been a democratic system by modern standards, but it was a far cry from the dictatorships that dominate the Muslim world today. Caliphs were chosen after getting input from the community in Medina and they ruled by engaging with this same community to get its opinion regarding policy debates.

The only real question is how to apply these principles to modern-day realities considering the vast cultural, technological, and demographic changes that have taken place over the past fourteen centuries. The Muslim world is no longer comprised of a small elite ruling over masses of non-Muslims in distant lands. Instead, it has been separated into independent nations like Turkey and Iran populated by millions. Pakistan has over 240 million people, 97% of whom are Muslim but separated through myriad linguistic, ethnic, regional, and doctrinal differences. Engaging in dialogue or achieving consensus is a lot harder today than it was in the much smaller and homogenous community of Medina.

Groups like ISIS, the Taliban, and their friends in the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) believe the answer is simple: nothing changes. Not only do they believe nothing changes, but they have violently tried to stop their societies from making some necessary changes. They even blame the changes various Muslim societies tried to make for Europe’s conquest of the Muslim world, which is a laughable and completely insane argument that highlights the irrational nature of their ideas. It was the Muslim world’s inability to change that led to its conquest. And its continuing refusal to do so makes it incredibly weak today.

Despite the incoherence of these literalists, it should be obvious that it is the broad values and ideals of this era that must guide Muslims, not the minutiae of how they were implemented. The only practical way to emulate the values of the Rashidun era today, given the much larger populations and advances in communications technology, is to create democratic systems that give citizens the ability to choose their rulers and freely voice their opinions.

Muslims have bathed themselves in conservative ideologies that deny simple truths for too long. As a political philosophy, conservatism makes no sense because it is opposed to one of the most basic natural laws. As humans learn through the simple process of aging, change is an intrinsic part of life. Philosophies that deny this truth are incapable of forming coherent or moral ideologies because they are inherently illogical and, as a result, must resort to authoritarian methods to maintain power. Hence, the violent oppression instigated by men using religion and tradition as an excuse to stop their societies from evolving.

This religious repression is based on the political absurdities created by the dictators who have taken over the region. Enforcing religious orthodoxy goes hand in hand with suppressing political speech. The two reinforce each other and help to buttress the region’s dictators who have spent centuries obscuring the fact that the ideal Islamic government is, and always has been, a democratic one based on consent rather than force. Until Muslims accept these truths, they will remain too weak to prevent massacres like the one consuming Gaza. 

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What should Israel do?

This essay was first published here, by the Friday Times on Nov. 29, 2023.

Some of the commentators who support Israel’s bombing and invasion of Gaza have been incredulously asking what those who have been calling for a cease-fire suggest Israel do instead of pursuing military action. 

The first and most important thing Israel should do is put grownups in charge of its government. To that end, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu must step down immediately. In fact, Israel’s entire Kahanist led government is an affront to human decency and must go along with him. Men like Israeli Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich, who think Arabs deserve “differentiated rights” or his partner in crime Minister for National Security Itamar Ben Gvir, have no place in government. Not only did their incompetent clown show lead to Israel’s greatest security failure in fifty years but they are clearly not the sort of men who should be formulating its plans to stabilize Gaza after the fighting stops. If these men had any decency, they would have resigned within a week of Hamas’ attack, once the immediate emergency had passed.

Thankfully, recent polls suggest Netanyahu’s days are numbered. The question then becomes, who will take over? And what sort of policies will they implement? The problem is the Israeli electorate has shifted so far to the right; they are unlikely to choose leaders capable of addressing the root of Israel’s problems: the occupation of the West Bank. If Israel really wants to address the situation in Gaza, it needs to bring peace to the West Bank first.

The most logical way to do that is to incorporate it into Israel and finally do away with the fiction of the Green Line. The Green Line, the Palestinian Authority and the administrative absurdities built around them are all meant to obscure the fact that Israel is the controlling political and military authority over the West Bank. Admitting the two-state solution is dead and officially incorporating the West Bank into Israel so its citizens can enjoy equal rights and have a fair say in running the government that rules them represents Israel’s most logical path to peace. 

Alternatively, forcing the roughly 450,000 Israeli settlers currently living there to relocate back across the Green Line or become citizens of a new Palestinian state would also work. In either case, it is time to dismantle Israel’s apartheid regime and give the Palestinians of the West Bank their freedom. 

Sadly, none of this will happen anytime soon since most Israelis would strongly oppose such measures. In the absence of a long-term solution, the least Israel’s leaders can do is stop trying to set the West Bank on fire. Stop murdering the Palestinians who live there. Stop using flimsy legal excuses to seize their property. Stop arresting them arbitrarily and then torturing them or holding them without trial or due process. Protecting them from the settlers who have been attacking and killing them would be nice too. By just doing the basic things a government is supposed to do for the people it rules and treating them the same regardless of their religion or ethnicity, Israel would make significant progress towards peace.  

Of course, the question was directed towards the current situation in Gaza, not long-term fixes. Even here, the solutions are not terribly complicated. For starters, Israel must stop killing women and children. It should also stop attacking hospitals, even if Hamas is using them to store weapons. Instead, its medical personnel should be working to keep Gaza’s hospitals operational so they can begin treating the staggering number of innocents wounded by its indiscriminate bombing and shelling. Israel’s military is now responsible for the well-being of the civilians who have been hurt or displaced due to its attacks and must therefore provide them with food, temporary shelter, and medical care. It will also need to start digging out the dead and giving them proper burials. 

Once it stabilizes the humanitarian situation, it should start talking to Hamas’ leaders about a long-term peace deal. Many will find this sentiment revolting, but it is Israel’s least bad option. Those who refuse to contemplate such a course of action on the basis that Hamas’ leaders must be punished would do well to remember that life is rarely fair.

America massacred millions in Vietnam and none of the elected officials responsible went to jail. George Bush fabricated evidence to justify starting a war that killed or displaced millions and gets to spend his retirement finger painting. Dick Cheney got rich from that same war and gets to spend his retirement in luxury too. Dozens of women accused Deshaun Watson of sexual assault and he was rewarded with a $230 million payday. Sometimes, the bad guys get away with it. Despite the stench, negotiating with Hamas is Israel’s best option.

The alternative is re-occupying Gaza. As Israel’s experiences in Lebanon and America’s experiences in Iraq and Afghanistan show, military occupations do not always go according to plan. As explained here in more detail, a comparison of America’s successful occupations of Germany and Japan versus its unsuccessful ones in Iraq and Afghanistan shows troop levels play an important role in the outcome. America stationed 1 soldier in West Germany for every 31.8 civilians but only 1 for every 8,640 Afghans. Providing a force comparable to the one that secured West Germany for Gaza would take almost 72,000 troops. Israel simply does not have the manpower to occupy Gaza over the long run while it simultaneously occupies the West Bank and remains on heightened alert in the north. Doing so would strain its manpower reserves while breaking its economy in the process. 

Much like their counterparts in America’s military, the IDF’s officers are too busy winning every battle and counting bodies to consider these long-term issues. From their perspective, the invasion has gone smoothly and there is no need to worry. But that is partially because Hamas has yet to fully engage its forces. Much like the Taliban in the face of America’s onslaught, its fighters have mostly melted away. Rather than take on Israel’s deadly Merkava battle tanks, Hamas has wisely decided to conserve its strength.

If this is the case, it is a shrewd tactical decision that indicates Hamas is playing the long game or possibly even baiting Israel into a trap. How long of a game will become more apparent once the IDF moves south and spreads itself thin securing all of Gaza. At that point, we could easily see an uptick in attacks. When the Taliban withdrew, it was a rushed decision made without the luxury of preparation, so it took them several years to rebuild. If this was part of Hamas’ plan from the beginning, then the timeframe will work differently and there will be an increased tempo in attacks sooner than later. 

Even with its minimal resistance, Hamas has been killing an average of fifteen to twenty Israeli soldiers a week, putting it on pace to kill as many as 1,000 a year. That’s roughly the same number of dead Israel suffered during its entire eighteen-year occupation of Lebanon. This also suggests a military occupation of Gaza will not end well for Israel. Hamas will either continue to mimic the Taliban by returning to power stronger than ever or Israel will find itself fighting a mutated version of its old enemy in the same way Al Qaeda gave way to ISIS. In either case, these enemies will be deadlier and better armed. The only real questions are how long and how many will die in the process. 

While the depressingly familiar story of Israel’s occupation is playing out, America will be burying itself in even more debt and suffering even more political and economic instability as a result. America’s days of riding to the rescue are slowly coming to an end. Which means Israel is currently at the zenith of its power and the time to come to terms with Hamas has never been better. That requires dialogue. If America had talked to the moderate elements within the Taliban or the Ba’ath party, things might have turned out very differently in Afghanistan and Iraq. So, as crazy as it sounds, Israel should try to talk to Hamas. 

Instead of talking, the IDF has expressed a strong preference for killing Hamas’ current leadership. Much like killing the boss of a Mexican drug cartel, this strategy will only cause Hamas to fracture into smaller factions, not destroy it. Keeping its leaders alive is the only way to make sure there are people across the table with the authority to make and enforce a deal.

For such a dialogue to work, Hamas’ leaders will need to finally accept the reality of their situation. Their allies in Iran and Lebanon have abandoned them. They do not have the air defenses to protect themselves from the Israeli Air Force and therefore refused to join the fight. The larger war Hamas hoped to start has failed to materialize. No one is coming to save them. 

The fact that Hamas’ leaders thought starting a larger war was feasible highlights the flawed logic that has always guided their thought process, casting doubt on whether negotiating with them is even worth the time. Despite these substantial hurdles, diplomacy must always be the first choice. One can only hope seeing so many of the women and children under their care torn to pieces or crushed under massive piles of rubble has finally brought home the senselessness of their struggle.

From a moral perspective, Hamas’ continued armed struggle against Israel was no longer justified once it withdrew from Gaza. The minute the IDF and the settlers left, its fighters should have thrown their rifles on the ground and worked towards building a real future for themselves on the little sliver of land they had left. They should have turned Gaza into the next Singapore. Instead, they chose violence. And they chose it in pursuit of a totally unrealistic goal. 

Despite their many missteps and horrible choices, men clever enough to survive a foe as deadly as Israel for so many years cannot be so delusional as to think they can really take back the entirety of Palestine or inflict a lasting military defeat on Israel. As the author suggested several years ago, surrender has long been Hamas’ best course of action. For any peace deal to work, Hamas would need to give up its weapons and promise to stop attacking Israel. Making such an offer, in exchange for their lives, genuine independence, freedom of movement for Gazans and an end to the siege is their best option.

Their crucial mistake was thinking Israel’s political dysfunction was a weakness they could exploit. Its leaders failed to realize that attacking an enemy when it is suffering internal turmoil only breaks the will to fight if you manage to deliver a knockout blow. Anything short of that will only bring the enemy together. The anger and frustration that had previously been directed inwards now finds a more wrathful expression outwards, and Gaza’s poor neighborhoods are turned to dust as a result.

Though their blend of innovative tactics and savagery allowed them to launch a brutal attack on Oct. 7th, a knockout blow of the sort required was never a possibility given Hamas’ relatively weak arsenal of weapons. Launching their attack therefore represents not just a catastrophic moral failure but a strategic one as well. Which is not a coincidence. It is an often overlooked connection, but a truly effective strategy must always be grounded in good morals and decency. Not coincidentally, Israel has failed to subdue the Palestinians because its strategies have also failed to appreciate this connection. 

The greater intensity of this latest cycle of violence and the massive number of casualties vividly illustrates the desperate need for peace. A continuation of the status quo is not sustainable. It will only result in death and despair for everyone. Which is why both Israel and Hamas should be talking, not fighting.

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America’s military withdrawal from the Muslim world is inevitable

Author’s note: I wrote most of this article over a year ago but have been unable to publish it until now. Instead of updating it, I decided to publish it as is because developments over the past year merely support my conclusions. For example, as discussed below, a year ago America’s debt was $20 trillion. It has now climbed to $28 trillion. Similarly, America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and its refusal to get involved in the latest round of fighting between Israelis and Palestinians both support my central argument: America’s military withdrawal from the Muslim world is inevitable. If I were a betting man, I would wager that America’s military presence throughout the Middle East and North Africa will be a shell of what it is today 15-30 years from now:

INTRODUCTION

Due to a combination of political and economic factors as well as its shifting national security priorities, the US will eventually withdraw its military from the Muslim world. It is not a question of whether America will withdraw its forces, but of when and how. Economically, the financial shocks of the COVID-19 Pandemic combined with the high levels of debt held by the US government and America’s diminished manufacturing capacity will necessitate a sharp reduction in US government spending. Politically, America’s right wing wishes to withdraw from the Muslim world due to its isolationist and nationalist views while its left wing favors a withdrawal due to its anti-imperialist views. They may disagree on why and how, but neither end of America’s political spectrum wants to keep troops in the Muslim world. Finally, America’s military deployments to the Muslim world are no longer supported by pressing national security interests. The combined effect of these factors will inevitably lead to a withdrawal of American troops from this part of the world.

The United States has become the dominant military power in the Middle East and throughout much of the Islamic world. It currently has troops stationed in several Muslim countries such as Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. Its naval forces control the Persian Gulf and its allies in Israel and NATO control the Mediterranean. It is the main arms supplier to many Muslim nations such as Jordan, Turkey, Egypt, and the UAE which gives the US significant leverage over these militaries while its allies in Europe supply weapons to many other Muslim states such as Morocco and Algeria. It also regularly conducts military operations and drone strikes throughout Africa as well as Yemen. Iran is the only Muslim country that actively refuses to accept this situation and, as a result, is subject to brutal economic sanctions and clandestine military operations. In other words, the United States and its allies have effective military control over a substantial portion of the Muslim world. The problem is that America’s robust military presence comes with a steep price tag that is becoming increasingly unaffordable[i].

In addition to the $6 trillion cost of America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the constant deployment of troops to the Muslim world has forced its military planners to fund and arm a military that is much larger than would otherwise be needed. These extra funding requirements have been a feature of US defense budgets for decades. Even the official budgets for America’s military underestimate the true cost of its military spending because they do not include all the funds spent on nuclear weapons or intelligence activities[ii]. Although it is difficult to gauge how much of America’s military spending is tied directly to the Muslim world, given its extensive military infrastructure in this part of the world, the long duration of its presence, and large number of troops involved, it is reasonable to assume the true amount significantly exceeds the $6 trillion spent in Iraq and Afghanistan the past two decades.

WHY AMERICA HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO WITHDRAW FROM THE MUSLIM WORLD

ECONOMIC FACTORS:

America’s withdrawal will primarily be driven by its finances. The COVID-19 Pandemic has brought the unhealthy debt levels of the US government into focus once again; however, America’s debt has loomed over it for years. Rather than making the tough compromises necessary to devise balanced budgets, America’s leaders have resolved the age-old debate of guns versus butter by liberally borrowing money to ensure they lacked neither. At the same time, America’s business and political leaders have entered into trade agreements that resulted in severe reductions to its manufacturing capacity. The result has been skyrocketing levels of debt and unsustainable trade imbalances. The staggering amount of resources America pours into its military combined with the significant reductions to its manufacturing base[iii] have drained its economy and, together, pose one of the biggest threats to its continuing prosperity.[iv] At its height, American power was largely derived from its economic, political, and cultural dominance as well as its ability to apply overwhelming military force, as it did in WWI and WWII. Since the end of the Cold War, the US has reacted to its greater freedom of action as the sole remaining superpower by increasingly relying on military power to achieve foreign policy goals. This sustained dependence on military power combined with the gradual dismantling of America’s manufacturing base has diminished its older and more important power centers of their vitality, decreasing the real basis of American power. Over the long run, the continued reliance on military power that is no longer supported by a strong manufacturing base has placed a heavy burden on resources. It has also led to a disconnect between perceptions of American power by its policymaking elites versus the realities and limits of this power.

As a result of America’s weakened financial position, its policymakers must re-prioritize how its military resources are used. Calling for deep cuts to spending may strike some as overly alarmist given the economic growth the US experienced prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. But America’s strong economic growth since the end of the Great Recession has diverted attention from the fact that its massive military spending, particularly since 9/11, has seriously undermined its fiscal position since this spending was only made possible through deficit financing. As the debt burden from this spending grows, it will limit the ability of the US government to meet its spending obligations. As a result, US policymakers must confront serious decisions regarding how to use America’s resources before their policy options become substantially more constrained. American policymakers face two choices. They can proactively adjust their foreign policy goals and military commitments to manage the changes its weak finances require, or they can wait until its debt is so burdensome that they will have no choice but to drastically cut military spending. The former option provides some ability to manage this transition, the latter does not.

POLITICAL FACTORS

In addition to its financial concerns, political trends within the US will also compel a withdrawal from the Muslim world. The increasing prevalence of arguments that favor withdrawing troops from the Muslim world, regardless of the potential impact on the region, show that many segments of American society have no desire to maintain its presence in the region. For example, when discussing the Middle East, Doug Bandow suggests “Washington should accept instability in the region[v]” as part of its efforts to reduce troop levels. These sentiments illustrate that Americans are tired of their military involvement in the Muslim world. America’s right wing sees its involvement as an unnecessary waste of resources that would be better spent in the US. America’s left sees its involvement as immoral and a continuation of ineffective neo-colonial policies. As such, both left and right favor withdrawing American forces from the Muslim world. In fact, this may be one of the few topics that America’s divided political factions agree on. These political trends are a result of growing dissatisfaction with America’s policies and will add pressure to withdraw troops from the region.

THE MUSLIM WORLD IS NO LONGER A NATIONAL SECURITY PRIORITY

Troop levels in the Muslim world are no longer supported by pressing national security interests. US policies in the Middle East have largely been shaped by the confluence of interests of the defense industry, energy industry, Israel, and the dictators that rule much of the region. Together, these groups have prevented the rise of a Muslim hegemon capable of taking over America’s security responsibilities. Instead, they have pushed the US to become the primary hegemonic power in the region by arguing that 1) increased military spending and arms sales to foreign countries are healthy for the US economy 2) American military forces were necessary to ensure the US had access to energy supplies 3) American troops were necessary to protect Israel and 4) American troops were necessary to provide stability by providing security guarantees to many of the governments of the region. These reasons do not make sense. Because of policies meant to appease these interest groups, the US has spent trillions of dollars and much political and moral capital in pursuit of policies that are too expensive and counter to its long-term interests. The influence of these groups has led to policies that have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars but at a cost of trillions of dollars to American taxpayers. Since each of the interest groups primarily responsible for the development of US policy acts according to its own logic, it will be necessary to analyze them individually.

THE NEED TO SUPPORT THE DEFENSE INDUSTRY

After entering WWII, the United States converted its massive civilian manufacturing base into one that could supply its military with the weapons and supplies needed to defeat the Axis powers anywhere in the world. The ability to harness its extraordinary industrial capabilities for military use propelled it towards victory but also laid the seeds for many of the problems confronting it today. The creation of an industrial complex geared exclusively towards military production created companies with a vested interest in continued military spending and the political and financial means to influence US government policy to ensure high levels of military spending. The defense industry has therefore benefited from US policies in the Muslim world by filling the larger orders for weapons and supplies that were necessary to maintain America’s presence in the region and by supplying weapons to the governments of the Muslim world allied to it.

High levels of military spending have typically been justified on the basis that this spending, even if high in absolute terms, is relatively small as a proportion of US GDP and that such spending boosts both manufacturing and scientific research within the US. Though there is merit to these arguments, these policy justifications are no longer sufficient to support high levels of military spending due to the large debt the US has accrued. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the US government’s debt will reach $20.3 trillion by the end of 2020[vi]. These figures will increase as further stimulus packages to fight the COVID-19 Pandemic are approved and tax revenue shrinks due to reduced economic activity. In light of the rapidly increasing debt held by the US, arguments that justify high levels of military spending or debt by highlighting their relationship to overall GDP levels are no longer persuasive because they ignore the reality of America’s worsening finances. Instead of relying on distorted statistics that argue high levels of debt and military spending are acceptable, as a matter of common sense, it should be obvious that continuing to add to an already bloated deficit will only make repairing America’s financial strength more difficult. As such, even if military spending continues to hover around 3% of GDP (a level some argue is affordable), this spending must be considered too high if it is paid for by more deficit financing when the debt will soon pass $20 trillion! Even if the US has the capacity to borrow more, doing so must be tied to pressing economic needs such as dealing with the COVID-19 Pandemic, not unnecessary military spending.

Again, it is difficult to gauge the percentage of US military spending directly attributable to the Muslim world, but it is much easier to track weapons sales by US companies to foreign nations. The US has consistently been the biggest exporter of weapons to the world and many of its sales have been directed towards governments in the Muslim world. Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest consumers of US weapons, accounting for a fifth of total US weapons sales for the five-year period ending in 2017. Half of America’s weapons sales during this period went to customers in the Middle East or North Africa[vii]. Weapons sales to Islamic nations are justified on the basis that they are necessary to support America’s allies and contribute to economic development.

The problem with this reasoning is that the allies in question are exceptionally incompetent when it comes to engaging in modern warfare[viii]. As a result, selling weapons to these nations does not make them more secure or better able to resist attack from another nation. As the Arab Spring showed, these weapons are primarily meant for use against the people that have been forced to obey the region’s many dictators. Weapons sales to these dictators adds to the instability of the Muslim world by providing its despots with the means to intimidate and murder their people. Supporting these dictators contributes to instability in the region by propping up rulers who cannot adequately protect their nations, reside over extremely weak political and economic institutions, and can only govern based on fear and violence. Though these sales may subsidize the costs of America’s military infrastructure, the long-term moral and political cost is too high to justify the economic gains. Instead of selling weapons to the dictators of the Muslim world, the US must develop policies that can allow it to disentangle itself from the region by focusing on trade that does not involve weapons used by rulers to murder their own people. Aside from the fact that profiting from the pain and suffering of others is morally and ethically disgusting, it also creates a reinforcing loop that forces the US to maintain its military presence in the region. Despite their massive weapons purchases, the region’s dictators are not strong enough to retain power without American support. America’s military presence and weapons sales to the region only reinforces its instability by supporting the dictators that are the primary cause of this instability.

ACCESS TO ENERGY SUPPLIES

The primary justification behind US policies towards the Islamic world has always been the need to secure access to energy supplies. This justification is not valid for two reasons.

The first is that the Muslim world is incentivized to sell its mineral resources to the West because of the laws of supply and demand. Most energy exporting Muslim countries have been unable to diversify their economies away from their dependence on selling oil and gas. As such, they rely on this revenue to pay for the government services they provide, and do not have the domestic demand necessary to consume their own supplies. As a result, Muslims are just as eager to sell oil to the US as the US is to buy it. The Arabs have only used their oil as a weapon once and the effect of their boycott was just as traumatic to their economies as it was to Western economies. Consequently, they have never used oil as a weapon again. Withdrawing American troops would not affect the ability of the US to import as much oil has it needs for its own consumption. Arguments that rationalize the use of military assets to secure access to these resources or that justify support for dictators on the basis that they can guarantee timely oil deliveries are not persuasive because they ignore the basic laws of economics that should govern such transactions. They also ignore the simple fact that a weak, authoritarian government will be just as incentivized to sell oil as a strong, democratic one.

The second reason the US does not need to maintain its military presence is that it is no longer as dependent on Middle Eastern energy supplies. The US has developed its own domestic energy production capabilities and diversified its oil suppliers away from Muslim producers to such a degree that in 2019 only 11% of its crude oil imports came from the Persian Gulf[ix]. In fact, over half of US crude oil imports now come from Canada and Mexico. The increased ability of the US to satisfy its energy needs through domestic production and diversified suppliers means that it no longer needs to waste military resources securing these energy supplies.

THE NEED TO PROTECT ISRAEL

Part of the reason the US has sought to prevent the rise of an Islamic hegemon is to ensure no power can threaten Israel. The logic underlying this policy does not hold up to scrutiny for two reasons. The first is that Israel has developed a sophisticated nuclear triad that would deter even a powerful Muslim nation. It is Israel’s nuclear capabilities, not American support, that act as the ultimate guarantor of its survival and independence. As such, US efforts to ensure no Islamic nation or political entity can develop enough power to threaten Israel are an unnecessary waste of resources. The second is that the lack of a Muslim hegemonic power has removed any pressure on Israel to compromise with the Palestinians under its control. Israel’s right wing may see this as a victory, but it will eventually turn into a pyrrhic one because it will either lead to the inclusion of millions of Palestinians into Israel as equal citizens (a result many Israelis do not want) or it will lead to the creation of a new Apartheid regime in the Middle East. Israel’s right seem intent on creating the latter scenario even though doing so will turn it and its supporters in the US into international pariahs and ensure that it remains involved in low level conflict in perpetuity.

Israel has overwhelmingly won its conflict with the Palestinians and its Arab neighbors. There is almost no prospect for the creation of a viable Palestinian state because Israel has resoundingly defeated the Palestinians politically and militarily. The last vestige of meaningful Palestinian resistance offered by Hamas cannot match Israel’s military capabilities. Its policy of continued resistance plays directly into the hands of right-wing Israelis who seem intent on creating small cantons of weak and divided Palestinians like the homelands created by the Apartheid regime in South Africa. Israelis have managed to create a state that has allowed its Jewish citizens to prosper while maintaining military control over millions of Palestinians who have been denied their basic rights while having to endure decades of military occupation. Despite their long running conflict, the Palestinians are still fragmented and weak and have been unable to develop military capabilities that could force Israel to change its policies. The political and diplomatic influence of the United States has neutralized attempts to gain international support and the political dynamics within the Middle East have deprived them of support from the surrounding Arab states. The result has been Israel’s complete subjugation and/or neutralization of the Palestinians living under its control or in surrounding territories. This victory may turn to defeat in the long run because it is so complete that it has incentivized Israel’s right-wing government to pursue policies that will allow this conflict to fester with no end in sight. Without a meaningful political solution that addresses the legitimate concerns of the Palestinians, Israel will be involved in low level conflict against an opponent that cannot defeat it but will have no incentive to stop fighting it either.

As explained above, a Muslim hegemonic power would not threaten the existence of Israel due to its formidable nuclear arsenal. It would; however, limit the ability of Israelis to attack, either overtly or clandestinely, its neighbors and it would force Israel to treat its Arab citizens with dignity and justice. Aside from not being contrary to American interests, such an outcome would greatly help them by finally creating the conditions that could lead to sustainable peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Israel has taken advantage of the lack of a Muslim hegemonic power to grind Palestinian opposition into the dirt and, in doing so, has ensured the region will suffer from low level violence and instability for the foreseeable future. Its complete and total military victory has empowered it to refuse even the smallest compromises with the Palestinians and has created a situation with no end in sight that necessitates continued American involvement in the region.

INFLUENCE OF RULERS WITHIN THE MUSLIM WORLD  

Many of the Muslim world’s governments expend a tremendous amount of resources in order to secure American support for their rule. For example, Saudi Arabia is estimated to have spent $60 million since 2016 to retain lobbyists, public relations firms, and fund think tanks[x] to maintain American support. This influence has ensured that criticism of Saudi Arabia’s brutal war in Yemen, abysmal human rights record, and financial support for extremist Muslims does not lead to a withdrawal of US support. In fact, the US has actively helped Saudi Arabia prosecute its war in Yemen despite the catastrophic effects on Yemen’s civilian population[xi]. Though considered the most proficient, the Saudi government is not the only authoritarian Muslim government to take advantage of America’s lobbying and PR firms. Nations such as Egypt,[xii] the UAE, and Qatar[xiii] also spend millions of dollars to make sure that America supports their interests.

This is problematic because the interests of these governments are often counter to the interests of the US. While arms sales to these nations may support economic activity within the US, their destabilizing effect also forces the US to maintain its costly military presence in the region. The Islamic world’s dictators and despots are the primary cause of its instability and weakness because of the inherently weak and violent nature of authoritarian and autocratic political institutions. These institutions have concentrated political and economic power in the hands of small groups of elites throughout the Muslim world that do not respect human rights, the rule of law, or freedom of expression. They use the machinery of the state to maintain their control and inflict violence on any citizens who oppose their rule even if that opposition is peaceful in nature. The rule of these elites has prevented Muslim nations from providing the government services necessary to support dynamic economies. It has also fueled the growth of extremist non-state actors that have reacted to the oppression and blatant theft of their governments by articulating violent ideologies that have plunged many Muslim nations into a state of chaos and anarchy which has, in turn, driven millions of Muslim refugees out of their homelands. American support for these rulers helps to keep the political institutions responsible for the Muslim world’s weakness in place and this weakness has directly led to the US military presence in the region. As such, it is in the long-term interests of the US to support the creation of democratic institutions in the Muslim world that can finally stabilize the region.

Some have looked at the actions of the US and seen a conspiracy to keep Muslims weak. The most likely explanation for America’s actions is much more mundane. The sad truth is that America’s politicians are for sale due to its corrupt (though technically legal) political system that incentivizes short term thinking focused on election cycles and obtaining the funds necessary to effectively contest these elections. The interest groups discussed above have manipulated America’s legislative process by exploiting these weaknesses to their own advantage. America’s policies towards the Muslim world are therefore best explained as resulting from the undue legislative influence of groups that have prioritized their own narrow self-interests over the long-term strategic interests of the US or the human suffering their actions cause. These groups have used their control of the legislative process to secure access to resources in a way that has subverted many of America’s basic ideals and principles and resulted in policies that are counterproductive and unsustainable. However, the arguments of those advocating for a continued American presence in the region can no longer outweigh the urgent need to fix America’s finances, the fact that so many Americans simply do not want to maintain its presence in the region, or the fact that most of the arguments used to rationalize current troop levels are not tied to national security needs.

Given these economic, political, and national security dynamics, the only real question is how and when America will withdraw its troops. Despite agreeing on the need to withdraw, the differing perspectives of its political factions will likely lead to conflict regarding the manner of America’s withdrawal. As such, while America’s withdrawal may be inevitable, the nature and timing of this withdrawal is uncertain. If the US does not adequately plan for and manage its withdrawal from the Islamic world, the results could be dire. Instead of following the same path they followed in Afghanistan, US policymakers must make an objective and realistic assessment of their policy options given the looming reduction in financial resources. They must stop engaging in the same arrogant behavior that prevented them from acknowledging the reality of their position in Afghanistan for so long. Turkey, Iran and Pakistan have already reacted to America’s inconsistent policies and hostility by developing close relationships with China. This is a foreshadow of what will happen if the US abandons the region without a plan in place.

CONCLUSION

The US must realize that due to its weakened finances and increasingly isolationist political trends, it can no longer continue as the dominant military power in the Muslim world. As such, it needs to develop and implement policies that will incentivize the creation of inclusive and pluralistic political and economic institutions and it needs to develop meaningful alliance relationships with these countries based on mutual respect rather than the traditional neo-colonial dynamic. The fundamentally imperial perspective of US policy makers must change; instead, they must treat the governments of the Islamic world as equal partners rather than clients to be bullied or cajoled. This will only be possible once these governments are run by competent officials that have been placed in power through the result of free, fair, and transparent democratic processes.     

America’s reluctance to protect Saudi oil facilities from Iran as well as its desire to withdraw from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan indicates its withdrawal is already under way. To better manage these changes, policies need to be clearly explained and agreed upon. Currently, America’s policies are a mix of hawkish rhetoric and haphazard military deployments that are not part of a clear strategy. America’s military leaders have explained their reduced commitment to the Middle East by referencing the need to focus on China but have yet to develop a new strategy that accounts for its lower importance and the smaller budgets likely to characterize military spending in the future. Instead, America’s military elite and their political and business allies have historically fought against serious cuts to military spending even as its debt was growing exponentially[xiv]. Given America’s high debt levels, massive military spending, the political infeasibility of raising taxes, and the refusal of its military and industrial elites to drastically reduce military spending, its long-term economic outlook was extremely precarious before the COVID-19 outbreak and is now particularly bleak. This is compounded by the fact that the aforementioned economic recovery was largely based on monetary manipulation (printing money, a.k.a., quantitative easing, borrowing money, and artificially keeping interest rates low to incentivize more borrowing) rather than strengthening America’s manufacturing base and overall fiscal position.

These pressing economic concerns combined with the growing belief among Americans across the political spectrum that American troops have no business in the Muslim world and its changing national security priorities will force it to withdraw from the Muslim world. The need to re-allocate resources to the Pacific, America’s energy independence, Israel’s dominant military capabilities, and the seemingly permanent instability of its Arab allies will outweigh the arguments traditionally used to justify its presence in the Islamic world. Having discussed the many factors that will lead to an American withdrawal from the Muslim world, the next step is to discuss the potential impact on the Muslim world and how Muslim nations should react to the coming changes. This discussion is available here.


[i] Bandow, Doug, “Want to Fix the Deficit? Bring Home the Troops,” Foreignpolicy.com, May 28, 2020,  https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/28/us-deficit-military-spending-budget-bring-home-troops/.

[ii] O’Hanlon, Michael, “Dollars at work: What defense spending means for the US economy.” Brookings Institute, Aug. 19, 2015, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2015/08/19/dollars-at-work-what-defense-spending-means-for-the-u-s-economy/.

[iii] “Manufacturing is now Smallest Share of US economy in 72 years,” Bloomberg, Oct. 29, 2019, https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/article/22028495/manufacturing-is-now-smallest-share-of-us-economy-in-72-years.

[iv] This sentiment is partially shared by former Secretary of Defense James Mattis and former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen who also see America’s debt as a threat to its national security. See: Kazda, Adam, “Military Spending: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly,” Pursuit, June 19, 2018, https://www.ourpursuit.com/military-spending-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/.

[v] Bandow, Doug, “Want to Fix the Deficit? Bring Home the Troops,” Foreignpolicy.com, May 28, 2020,  https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/28/us-deficit-military-spending-budget-bring-home-troops/

[vi] ”The National Debt Explained,” Investopedia, accessed October 9, 2020, https://www.investopedia.com/updates/usa-national-debt/.

[vii] Ivanova, Irina, “Saudi Arabia is America’s No. 1 weapons customer.” CBSNEWS.com, October 12, 2018, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/saudi-arabia-is-the-top-buyer-of-u-s-weapons/.

[viii] For a more detailed discussion of the performance of various Arab militaries since WWII see: Pollack, Kenneth, Armies of Sand, (New York: Oxford University Press, 2019).

[ix] “How much petroleum does the United Sates import and export?” U.S. Energy Information Administration, accessed on Oct. 9, 2020, https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6  and “US energy facts explained,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, accessed on Oct. 9 2020, https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/.

[x] Meyer, Theodoric and Woellert, Lorraine and Levine, Marrianne, “Diplomatic crisis spotlights Saudi Arabia’s spending in Washington.” Politico, Oct. 16, 2018, https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/16/saudi-arabia-spending-washington-909882. Massoglia, Anna, “Saudi Arabia ramped up multi-million foreign influence operation after Khashoggi’s death.” Opensecrets.org, Oct. 2, 1019, https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2019/10/saudi-arabia-ramped-up-foreign-influence-after-khashoggi/.

[xi] Bazzi, Mohamad, “The United States Could End the War in Yemen if it Wanted to,” The Atlantic, Sept. 30 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/09/iran-yemen-saudi-arabia/571465/

[xii] Schapiro, Avi, “Egypt’s Best Friends in D.C,” The Atlantic, July 8, 2017,

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/07/egypt-lobbying-sisi-trump-muslim-brotherhood/532227/

[xiii] Lardner, Richard, “Qatar, UAE spend heavily on lobbyists amid a war of words,” AP news, March 30, 2018,

https://apnews.com/b2d5003280e343a88985d784e9060586/Qatar,-UAE-spend-heavily-on-lobbyists-amid-a-war-of-words

[xiv] Kazda, Adam, ”Military Spending: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly,“ Pursuit, June 19, 2018 https://www.ourpursuit.com/military-spending-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/.

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Muslims are still too weak and divided to help the Palestinians

The latest round of violence in Gaza galvanized the Muslim world yet again. Demonstrations and social media campaigns in support of Palestine highlighted the deep feelings of sympathy many Muslims have for its long-suffering people. As encouraging as it was to see so many show their support for the Palestinian people, these expressions of empathy and rage will ultimately lead to nothing.

That is because of one inescapable fact: Muslims are still too weak and divided to effectively confront Israel and its key ally, the United States. Iran is one of the few Muslim nations to actively oppose the neo-colonial power structures imposed upon the region by the West and, in return, it has been isolated and subject to brutal sanctions and clandestine military attacks. Until Muslim nations develop the military capacity to deter Israeli and American aggression, they will always be vulnerable to the type of violence that consumed Gaza.

The reasons for the Islamic world’s sustained weakness are too varied and nuanced to adequately address here. Suffice it to say, the prevalence of authoritarian political and social institutions throughout the region have choked off intellectual, political, and economic development in a way that has made it impossible for Muslim nations to develop the military capabilities required to protect themselves. As the always insightful Pervez Hoodbhoy points out in a recent editorial, the Muslim world’s lack of intellectual freedom and investment in education have left it unable to develop the means to counter Western aggression. He is absolutely right. Until the Muslim world revitalizes its intellectual climate, it will never be able to develop the technological base required to free itself from the domination of outside powers.

Compounding the problem is that Muslims refuse to work together. The Arabs are so scared of their Persian neighbors they are willing to work with Israel to weaken them. The Turkish people have finally begun to pivot back to the Muslim world, but their pan-Islamic vision is undermined by their oppression of the Kurds. Pakistan’s generals are so dependent on financial subsidies from their Arab patrons that they refuse to develop meaningful ties with Iran. These divisions play directly into the hands of the men that bombed Gaza and those that empower them. As Mr. Hoodbhoy correctly points out, unity by itself will not be enough. But working towards unification is just one of many changes that Muslims must make if they genuinely wish to change the power dynamics of the current global system in their favor.

The simple fact is that there is no Muslim nation large and powerful enough by itself to challenge the great powers of the world. That is because there is no Muslim nation with the size and resources of the US, China, Russia, or a united Europe. The only way that Muslims will ever end the atrocities in Palestine (or Kashmir, or Xinjiang, or Chechnya, or Burma) is by learning to work together.

The problem is that its authoritarian political institutions make working together impossible because they make it impossible to build the sort of inclusive and open political institutions required for such cooperation. The Muslim world is so large that the only way it will ever come together is by creating inclusive and democratic political institutions that can allow its diverse people to work together for their mutual betterment and protection. As such, the region’s lack of democracy not only limits its intellectual environment, economic strength, and stability but also its ability to bring Muslims together.

If Muslims are serious about helping the Palestinians (or the many other Muslim communities subject to conquest and oppression all over the world) then they must begin to institute deep rooted political and legal reforms to create democratic political institutions and stimulate the sort of intellectual growth necessary to end the dominance of the great powers. Such reforms will be key to supporting economic and technological development which are necessary precursors to acquiring advanced military capabilities.

They must also learn to work together. However, rather than indulge in fantasies about re-creating the Caliphate, ideas that can allow Muslims to work together must be based on a realistic assessment of the political and strategic environment facing the Muslim world today. Sadly, an honest assessment will quickly rule out the Arab, African, and Central Asian Muslim states. Their authoritarian political systems are so entrenched that expecting them to voluntarily reform themselves is not a realistic goal. The only Muslim nations with the right combination of strategic incentives, institutions, and geography that could convince their elites to come together are Pakistan, Turkey, Iran, and Afghanistan.

All four need to undergo serious reforms as well but three out of four are locked in existential conflicts that should incentivize their elites to at least consider such ideas. Though Turkey does not face the same strategic concerns as Iran, Pakistan, or Afghanistan, its elites should also be receptive to such ideas because they are the only way Turkey will ever be able to fully realize its pan-Islamic foreign policy goals.

Of course, the key to convincing these elites to adopt such ideas will be appealing to their pocketbooks. Consequently, the best way to build a sustainable alliance between these four nations is to start by building stronger economic ties and infrastructure that can allow for the free flow of goods, people, and ideas throughout them. The Muslim world divided itself politically long ago but was historically linked through interconnected layers of religious, trade, and political networks. The European conquest of the Muslim world destroyed these connections and today’s rulers have refused to rebuild them out of fear that doing so will threaten their grip on power. It is time for Muslims to rebuild these links so that their interests begin to align in a manner that can eventually lead to greater political and military cooperation.

Some may find calls for Islamic unity to be antiquated and even cliched, but the devastation being wrought upon so many parts of the Muslim world shows that the need for unity has never been greater. The civilizational based theory of international competition articulated by Samuel Huntington is becoming more of a reality every day as a multi-polar world largely centered on the world’s great civilizational blocks emerges. As this new international order takes shape, the Islamic world will continue to be a source of instability that will invite further conflict until its nations take the steps necessary to finally end their protracted weakness. Unity among Muslims will not be a panacea that will cure all the Muslim world’s problems, but it would certainly be a step in the right direction.

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Non-violent resistance is the best chance the Palestinians have left

On April 13, 1919 British General Reginald Dyer ordered his troops to open fire on a crowd of unarmed Indians in the city of Amritsar. They murdered 379 men, women, and children that day. Despite the inevitable calls for revenge, Mahatma Gandhi worked tirelessly to convince his countrymen that non-violent resistance was still their best chance for freedom. It took nearly thirty years and countless more deaths, beatings, and unjust imprisonments, but Gandhi’s tactics eventually freed the Subcontinent from the evils of imperialism. Martin Luther King borrowed many of Gandhi’s ideas to finally free African Americans from the evils of segregation. Though primarily grounded in value systems that abhorred violence, the choices Gandhi and King made were also a reflection of the fact that they were outgunned by men who had no problem murdering women and children. Non-violence was not just a moral choice, but a necessity born of weakness.

The parallels between these examples and the Israeli-Palestinian conflict should be painfully obvious. The latest fighting claimed the lives of over 250 Palestinians compared to just 12 Israelis. While some may find it crude to compare casualty figures, the huge disparity in these numbers highlights the power differential between both groups and is consistent with numbers from previous conflicts as well. For example, in 2014 Israel killed over 2,100 Palestinians while suffering only 73 fatalities. The lopsided casualties suffered by the Palestinians is based on their inability to match Israel’s military capabilities. They do not have the heavy weapons required to challenge the IDF in a conventional fight and have proven incapable of developing effective guerilla tactics that can do so either. From a military perspective, the Palestinians are incredibly weak while Israelis are incredibly strong.

One of the few American media personalities to correctly diagnose this state of affairs is comedian Trevor Noah who poignantly highlighted on his Daily Show that the Palestinians simply do not have the military ability to protect themselves. Hamas’ ability to attack Israel with rockets may grab headlines but homemade rockets are not going to significantly change the balance of power in this conflict as long as Israel has all the tanks and warplanes. Consequently, the only real path to peace and dignity for the Palestinian people lays in civil disobedience and non-violent resistance aimed at dismantling the Apartheid state most of them have been forced to live in since 1967. Given the serious military imbalance between the parties, this is the only chance for the Palestinians to secure their rights. It also represents their best chance to use the political momentum and sympathy generated from the latest violence to their advantage.

For the most part, the latest round of fighting was depressingly similar to previous bouts of violence that always seem to feature massive Israeli bombardments and disproportionate Palestinian casualties. However, there was one crucial difference this time. For the first time, the Palestinians had vocal support from within the US political establishment. For the first time, Americans are having a conversation about their government’s unequivocal support for Israel. These changing sentiments are still not enough to challenge the vested and powerful interests within America that have always supported Israel, but it shows there is a chink in the armor. And the best way for the Palestinians to exploit this opening is by adopting widespread civil disobedience in which they peacefully refuse to comply with Israel’s Apartheid policies. Doing so would not only secure the moral high ground (given their lack of weapons, this is the only high ground they can hope for), it would also give them new political momentum and significantly change the current dynamics of the conflict which still heavily favors Israel.

Non-violence is the only tactic that has the potential to change the pattern of violence between both parties. Otherwise, these periodic conflagrations will continue repeating themselves because the fundamental dynamics of this conflict will remain unchanged. And the one unchanging fact shaping this conflict for the past 16 years is that Israel has overwhelmingly won both militarily and politically. It won when it crushed the second Intifada and locked Hamas in an open-air prison (along with two million innocent Palestinians for good measure).


The recent détente between Israel and various Arab states and the muted reaction to Israel being labeled an Apartheid state by Human Rights Watch also highlight the degree to which it has won this conflict politically. The sad reality is that the Western world has become numb to the devastation being inflicted upon the Palestinian people. Until this latest round of violence, America’s unwavering support gave Israel carte blanche to do as it pleased to the Arabs under its control and it seemed there was no red line it could cross that would change this, even attacking Islam’s third holiest site during Ramadan. Non-violent resistance is therefore the only path left that has any chance at ending the cycle of violence and securing a favorable outcome for the Palestinians.

The biggest barrier to effectively using such tactics is the fact that no amount of civil disobedience will result in the creation of an independent Palestinian state. Israel’s colonization of the West Bank destroyed that option. The presence of roughly 760,000 settlers and the extensive network of settlements and infrastructure they built across the entire area integrated the West Bank with Israel, creating “facts on the ground” that make building a viable Palestinian state impossible. Many Israelis are adamantly opposed to a one-state solution, but the truth is that their leaders set them on this path the minute they started building settlements in the West Bank (to say nothing of the fact that a nation built in the heart of the Arab world should probably expect to have a few Arab citizens). Israel and the West Bank are already a single state in all but name, controlled by a single political authority. Israel has just hidden behind the legal fiction of the Green Line to create an Apartheid state that denies the Palestinians their fundamental rights.

For non-violence to work, it must be used with a realistic goal in mind that forces Israelis to decide if they would rather live in a Jewish state or a democratic one. And the Palestinians must understand that just because they refuse to resort to violence does not mean Israel will play along. The British did everything they could to goad Indians into fighting back. Similarly, attempts at non-violent protest in Gaza were met by sniper fire in 2018. Israel will do everything in its power to get the Palestinians to keep fighting for the false promise of their own state because violent resistance, even in self-defense, plays into the hands of right-wing Israelis looking to justify their unbelievably hypocritical policies. Despite these obstacles, civil disobedience still represents the best chance for the Palestinians to end their suffering by creating a genuinely democratic state in which all of Israel’s citizens are treated as equals.

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It is time for the Palestinians to surrender

There was a time when America pretended to be a neutral arbitrator in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. There was a time when Arab nations that pursued normalization with Israel were ostracized by their fellow Muslims. Those times are now a distant memory and the changing dynamics of this conflict illustrate a simple fact: Israel has overwhelmingly defeated the Palestinians both politically and militarily. This defeat is so complete that there is no chance the Palestinians will ever be allowed to create a viable nation of their own. As such, the two-state solution is no longer a realistic path to peace. The only remaining option that can safeguard the interests of the Palestinians is inclusion in Israel as equal citizens. This is also the only option that will allow Israel to remain a democracy instead of becoming an apartheid state. If Israelis continue to prioritize maintaining their state solely for the benefit of Jews, they will create a new apartheid regime that will ultimately lead to the demise of everything that once made Israel worth fighting for. Both sides can continue down the path of war or they can start to make the tough choices that may lead to peace. As such, it is time for the Palestinians to give up their hopes of having their own state. Instead, they must realize that inclusion into Israel’s dynamic society as equals is their best chance at having a prosperous future. For their part, the Israeli people must realize that their choice to create their nation in the heart of the Islamic world means they must abandon their dream of a homeland exclusively for Jews.

It is therefore time for all armed Palestinian groups to unilaterally lay down their arms and unequivocally renounce the use of violence. It is also time to abandon the façade of the Palestinian Authority and incorporate the entirety of the occupied territories into Israel as an equal and undivided whole. Both Hamas and the Palestinian Authority must abandon their governmental responsibilities and allow the Israeli government to assume responsibility for necessary government services in the Gaza strip and the West Bank. In short, it is time for the Palestinians to surrender and abandon all resistance to Israel in exchange for full inclusion into Israeli society.

In order to facilitate the integration of these territories into Israel, the Palestinians should be given their fair share of political power within the structure of the Israeli state so that its Arab communities can participate in its political institutions. Power should be apportioned fairly based upon transparent democratic principles to ensure that political power is fairly distributed among all of Israel’s communities, including its Arab ones. All citizens of Israel should be treated equally under the law and given the same access to educational and occupational opportunities. Discriminatory policies that place Palestinians at a disadvantage with respect to such opportunities must end so that the socio-economic disparity between the two communities can be addressed over time. This can only be achieved by allowing both groups their fair share of political and economic power and access to resources.

The security apparatus of the state will obviously be needed to combat extremists on both sides that will always seek to use violence to justify their continued separation. But the presence of such extremists must no longer be used to rationalize their forced segregation. Instead, they must learn to share their resources and work together for a more vibrant and inclusive Israel.

THE PALESTINIANS HAVE BEEN COMPLETELY DEFEATED MILITARILY

The Palestinians have lost the struggle to create their own state. Despite being at war for decades, they have yet to develop the military capacity to defeat Israel. They are under an effective military blockade that has prevented them from importing the heavy weapons they would need to confront the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF). Nor do they have the industrial infrastructure necessary to build heavy weapons themselves. Since they cannot build or import the heavy weapons needed to fight the IDF, they do not have the ability to wage a conventional war to secure their freedom.

They have also proven incapable of developing asymmetric warfare capabilities that can challenge the IDF. Their lack of political support in the surrounding Arab states means they cannot use these countries as a base to support a guerrilla campaign. Without support from allies outside Israel they do not have the logistical capacity or territorial depth to wage an effective guerrilla campaign. The terrain and the ease with which Israel can control access to urban centers has also made developing effective guerrilla tactics difficult. Consequently, the only remaining choices are slaughter or surrender.

There is no valor in allowing yourself to be slaughtered, particularly when the battlefield is full of women and children. The only realistic option is therefore surrender. At this point, the Palestinian people and their armed forces, such as they are, have become nothing more than punching bags for Israeli forces. There is no chance the large difference in power between the two sides will change any time soon. As such, it is time for the Palestinians to give up their armed struggle. Instead of waging war, the Palestinian people must commit to only using non-violent tactics to peacefully convince Israelis to change their policies. Doing so will force Israelis to confront the hypocrisy of their policies towards them and finally decide if they would rather live in a democratic state or a Jewish one. By choosing to build their new nation on Palestinian lands, Israelis made it impossible to have both and it is time for them to confront this contradiction.

NEITHER SIDE HAS ACTED LIKE PEOPLE WORTHY OF THE HOLY LAND AND YET BOTH DESERVE SYMPATHY

Both sides have committed barbaric acts of violence against each other. Neither has acted like people worthy of the Holy Land. Israeli security forces have committed serious human rights abuses. It has been a military aggressor on numerous occasions and engaged in the unlawful killing and excessive use of force against civilians. The Palestinians are guilty of equally atrocious behavior, having intentionally targeted civilians on numerous occasions as well. Both sides refuse to see the humanity in each other and have resorted to murdering each other’s children without remorse. As such, both sides must stop pointing fingers and allow for a general amnesty for all parties.

As a Muslim, the author has always sympathized with the Palestinians who have endured decades of military occupation and been forced to live as second-class citizens while having most of their homeland taken from them. However, he also sympathizes with the Jewish people who have seen the worst humanity has to offer and still managed to create a vibrant and powerful homeland for themselves. Israel was not created as part of an expansionist conquest of the Muslim world. It was created because Europeans refused to let their Jewish neighbors live in peace. The desperate souls who began the Zionist movement were not bloodthirsty warriors looking for new land to conquer. They did not choose to return to the Holy Land to seize its riches or capture strategic territory. They returned to Israel because they had no place else to go. Europe’s Jews often had to endure discrimination and violence at the hands of their neighbors. Despite this history, no one could have predicted the scale of the horrors unleashed by the Nazis that eventually led to the industrialized murder of roughly 6 million Jews. Though the Zionist movement predates the Nazis, it was their actions that provided the strongest catalyst for creating Israel.

When Muslims look at Israel and the actions of its people, we must never forget how the evils of the Holocaust shaped their worldview. When we speak of the Holocaust we must not only focus on the evil of the Nazis. We must also understand that the Nazis had plenty of help from people willing to herd Jews into death camps out of nothing more than jealousy and greed. Obviously, the murder of innocents on such a large scale is truly evil. But the complicity of those that helped and the refusal of so many others to stand up for their neighbors simply because they were a different religion is an equally horrific form of evil. After escaping from the horrors of the Nazis, Jewish refugees literally had nowhere to go. Even if migrating to America was an option for some, America during the 1930s and 40s was still tolerant of anti-Semitic views and would hardly have been appealing to someone fleeing anti-Semitic persecution in Europe. The only choice Jews had was to try and create a new homeland for themselves. They chose to create this homeland in Palestine due to the historical connection they felt to the land and because they had no other realistic options.

Muslims often lament that we are paying for the sins of the German people. This might be true, but we are also paying for our own sins. Rather than welcome Jewish refugees as fellow humans in need of help, many Palestinians echoed the same hateful rhetoric of the Nazis, vowing to push them back into the sea. Jewish refugees were not blameless either since many of them brought European attitudes of racial superiority with them. Many viewed their new Arab neighbors with the same sort of colonial disdain as so many other Europeans. Neither community was interested in building a healthy relationship with the other. The poor reaction of the Arabs to their new neighbors, particularly once the stream of refugees increased, likely solidified the feeling among Jews that they could not trust them. At the same time, newly arrived Jews exhibited a level of disregard for the Arabs that could only lead to acrimony and conflict.

This dynamic of mistrust has come to characterize the relationship between Jews and Arabs today and has made solving this conflict considerably more difficult. Despite the bad blood between both communities, they have no choice but to find a way to come together.  This should start with a change of attitudes on both sides and an honest reckoning of how the actions and racism of both have fueled their conflict. Muslims must end the hateful and one sided rhetoric that is often used when discussing Israel and acknowledge the extreme historical circumstances that led to its creation by showing compassion towards a people that have seen the gruesome consequences of humanity’s tribalism and violent instincts. Even if one adamantly believes that Israelis have treated the Palestinians unfairly, it is time to accept the reality that there are now over 6 million Jews living in the Holy Land and continually threatening to push them into the sea is counterproductive and cruel. It is time for Muslims to accept responsibility for their role in this conflict by addressing how their refusal to accept their new neighbors caused Israelis to arm themselves and seek to create a state that excluded as many Arabs as possible.

Rather than constantly cast ourselves as victims, Muslims must also realize that our refusal to modernize directly led to the conquest of Palestine. Instead of blaming the poor refugees who, despite their meager circumstances, were able to carve a state for themselves out of the heart of the Muslim world, we must take responsibility for our own shortcomings. Chief among these was our refusal to extend the hand of friendship to those in need during one of humanity’s darkest hours. This is indicative of a culture that no longer has compassion for the weak and no longer strives to protect the most vulnerable among us. By forgetting our core Islamic values and falling into the same trap of hate and selfishness as so many other societies throughout history, we laid the seeds for our own destruction. The same lack of compassion that showed itself in our dealings with Jews returning to the Holy Land has also shown itself in how we treat each other and the sort of governments we create. These governments have been so lacking in compassion and human decency that they have plunged the Muslim world into a cycle of war and poverty from which it has yet to recover. If the Muslim world is ever going to reverse its long decline it must first address the issues within its societies that have caused them to create such violent and repressive political institutions since these are directly responsible for its perpetual state of weakness. It is this weakness that allowed a group of destitute refugees to conquer Palestine.

Israelis must do their part to work towards peace as well by examining how their own conduct has contributed to the current situation. They must address the inherent hypocrisy in creating a homeland for themselves by taking the homeland of the Palestinians. And they must address how their own colonial attitudes have prevented them from working with the Palestinians they have conquered. Although Israel has overwhelmingly won its conflict with its Arab neighbors, it is on a path towards perpetual war because of its refusal to consider the legitimate grievances of the Palestinians. Israelis must realize that creating a just peace is in their interests and that their leverage to negotiate such a peace has never been better. Instead of using their dominant military victory to secure a lasting political settlement with the Palestinians, Israel has continued bullying and beating a Palestinian populace that is essentially defenseless. When Israel was young and vulnerable the tenacious fighting spirit of its soldiers was inspiring. Now that Israel is the dominant military power in the Eastern Mediterranean, it looks more like a bully when it saturates defenseless neighborhoods in Gaza with thousand-pound bombs and artillery shells that have a curious tendency to hit civilian targets.

Unfortunately, Israel’s right-wing government seems inclined to ensure that it remains Jewish at the cost of its democracy. The world has already witnessed the injustice of such a system. It should be obvious by now that political systems designed to exclude people based solely on their race, ethnicity, or religion are immoral and unsustainable. The Israeli people should know better than most how wrong it is to lock people in ghettos while denying them the rights and dignity that all people deserve simply because they are the wrong religion or race. Instead of using the same de-humanizing arguments the Nazis used to justify their treatment of the Jewish people, Israelis must break the cycle of racist fueled violence by starting to consider that their Arab neighbors may also deserve peace and justice.

Facing the horrors of the Holocaust has caused Israeli society to become consumed by fear. This fear has caused them to justify policies and attitudes rooted in the same sort of hatred and xenophobia that the Nazis used to justify their treatment of the Jews. Though vigilance and self-defense are the right of every people, Israelis have used their superior military power to bully the Palestinians based, in part, on racist justifications that have caused them to espouse the sort of values and prejudices that  allow them to de-humanize the Palestinians. Rather than use their power to perpetuate war, Israelis should include the Palestinians into their society as equal citizens so that both groups can work to tear down their barriers and learn to live side by side. This is the only way Israel can meet the challenges of the future as a free and democratic society.

Those Israelis that oppose the inclusion of large numbers of Palestinians into their society have only themselves to blame. Israel’s victory has been so complete that it has made creating a viable Palestinian state impossible. If the Palestinians had been able to fight Israel to a stalemate, then perhaps a peace between two equal parties could have led to the creation of a state for each community. But the Israeli defeat of Palestinian resistance has been so complete that no such possibility exists. As a result, the only remaining option is a one state solution.

ONLY PEACE BETWEEN ISRAELIS AND PALESTINIANS CAN LEAD TO NORMAL RELATIONS WITH THE MUSLIM WORLD

The recent hostility between Jews and Muslims is in aberration in what has historically been a symbiotic relationship that has been referred to as a Judeo-Islamic civilization. Both groups must commit themselves to recreating the bonds that once allowed them to prosper by working to build a new Judeo-Islamic tradition that can allow them to work together. Rather than turn themselves into a European fortress in the heart of the Muslim world, Israelis must embrace the choice their ancestors made to return to the Islamic world by trying to build relationships with Muslims predicated on respect and equality. The improving relations between Israel and various nations within the Muslim world will never realize their full potential or expand to a significant number of Muslim nations until the Palestinian issue is resolved in a manner that reasonable Muslims find fair. Once this happens, both Israel and the Muslim world would benefit greatly from increased trade particularly given Israeli technical expertise in agriculture, IT, and water conservation and desalinization.

Peace would also render Israel’s policy of supporting the Muslim world’s many despots unnecessary. In order to ensure that no groups within the Muslim world can challenge its interests, Israel has supported many of the region’s dictators. Supporting the autocratic and authoritarian governments of its Arab neighbors will eventually backfire in the same way that the covert support its intelligence agencies provided for the creation of Hamas ultimately led to the bloody suicidal bombing campaign of the early 2000s and its invasion of Lebanon led to the creation of Hezbollah. Policies rooted in violence and repression always lead to more violence and intolerance. Likewise, the repressive policies of the Muslim world’s dictators are primarily responsible for the development of extremist non-state actors that refuse to accept the existence of Israel. Their oppression, theft, and horrible economic mismanagement combined with their refusal to give their citizens a voice in their governments are the primary sources of these groups’ appeal and support. Supporting these despots will only lead to more violence and more extremism. Instead of fearing democracy in the Muslim world, Israelis should help to spread it even if that leads to the assumption of power by Islamic oriented groups.  

Assuming Israel’s Muslims are being treated fairly, Muslim governments comprised of non-violent Islamists, such as those that espouse Islamic modernists ideals, should present no problems for Israelis. The current animosity between the Muslim world and Israel is primarily based on the cruel treatment of the Palestinians. Once this stops, there will be no reason for continued hostility. Peace between Israel and Jordan and Egypt has not led to warmer relations between their people precisely because most Muslims believe the Palestinians are being treated unfairly. Once this changes, real and meaningful ties between the people of the region can develop.

The changes suggested above will require significant compromises by both parties; however, they also represent the best chance to secure lasting peace. Only ideologies that are inclusive and support the development of democratic institutions that allow for the participation of all Israel’s people can lead to sustainable peace. The policies pursued thus far have not worked because they are based on exclusionary and authoritarian policies. As such, it is time to consider a new path that realistically accounts for the current dynamics of this seemingly intractable conflict.

HOW THE MUSLIM WORLD FAILED THE PALESTINIANS

In closing, the author feels compelled to address the Palestinian people by apologizing on behalf of the Muslim community for being unable to come to your aid. We have failed you. Your brothers in Egypt are ruled by soldiers that care only for wealth and power and have shown themselves to be useless on the battlefield. Your brothers in Jordan are ruled by a man who pretends to be progressive but, based on his actions, also seems to care only about wealth and power. Syria is consumed by civil war because its ruler was so obsessed with these same pursuits that he preferred to slaughter innocent women and children rather than share power with his people. Your neighbors to the north are still rebuilding after the Israeli invasion of their lands and have yet to develop political institutions that can address the needs of their heterogeneous society. As a result, they are in no position to help. The rulers of the Arab Gulf nations are so weak and consumed by greed and their thirst for luxury that they can offer no help either. In order to ensure their fragile hold on power, they have sold you out. Though the leaders of Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan are more sympathetic to your plight, they still refuse to work together and, by themselves, they are too weak to challenge Israel and its American backers. Consequently, you are on your own and the only advice the author can give you is to surrender and seek peace on the best terms you can. Otherwise, you will continue to be slaughtered without pity, forced to live under a brutal military occupation or siege, or forced into poverty and servitude as punishment for your continued resistance. This will lead to the creation of a political and legal system designed to keep you permanently subservient to Israel. The longer you pursue the false promise of your own state, the more entrenched your weakness and servitude will become.

Though the rulers of the Muslim world will jump up and yell whenever they find a cartoon offensive, their refusal to help you proves they do not care about the wholesale imprisonment and slaughter of Muslims in Palestine or in any other parts of the world. Apparently, they find cartoons more offensive than the collective punishment meted out to you. Muslim leaders may “bravely” challenge the hypocrisy of the West and its love for free speech that stirs religious animosities while simultaneously trampling on the freedom of its Muslim citizens to practice their religion, but they can only sit by and watch as Israel’s blockade of Gaza slowly kills its children from malnourishment and disease. They watch impotently as Israel and its allies conspire to keep Gaza besieged while you slowly wither away in your open-air prison. You have suffered enough. Too many of your children have died and too many of your young men are rotting in Israeli jails. Since the rulers of the Muslim world are too busy fighting the evil cartoons of the West, they do not have time to help.

They spend their time yelling about cartoons instead of helping you because this allows them to pretend they care about their religion, but the truth is that all they really care about is money and power. They have refused to implement the deep rooted political and legal reforms their societies need because they refuse to share meaningful power with their people since doing so would make it harder for them to control and steal from them. As such, none of your fellow Arabs or Muslims have been able to develop the military capacity to ensure your freedom. Without serious political and legal reforms combined with increased spending on educational and scientific development designed to improve the critical thinking and technical skills of their people, the Muslim world will never be able to create the sort of culture and institutions that can lead to strong economic growth based on innovation and technological development. Without these ingredients, developing a modern armaments industry is impossible as is building armies capable of competently engaging in modern warfare. Since there does not appear to be any Muslim nation or ruler willing to implement these reforms, there is no hope that any of them will develop the power to help you.

IT IS TIME TO WAVE THE WHITE FLAG OF SURRENDER

The author must therefore beg you to surrender as quickly as you can.  In order to ensure that Israel accepts your surrender, you must peacefully stop complying with all laws meant to further your oppression and occupation. Every Palestinian should unequivocally demonstrate the intention to surrender by waving a white flag and taking to the streets completely unarmed to peacefully ask the Israeli government to dismantle its occupation infrastructure and accept you into its country. It is time to trade in the IDF’s checkpoints for unhindered access to all parts of Israel as free citizens. The leadership of all Palestinian factions should lead the way by publicly surrendering their weapons to Israeli authorities. The only way that Israelis can be convinced to abandon their hopes of creating an ethnically and religiously segregated society in which they alone hold power is if you make it clear that you pose no danger to them. As such, all Palestinians throughout Israel must peacefully work together to convince Israelis to let you become equal citizens within their society by stating in the clearest possible terms that you surrender. It is only by having the courage to admit your defeat that you may finally free yourselves.

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