What Muslims can learn from Ertugrul

The original version of this article can by found here: What Muslims Can Learn from the Turkish TV Series Ertugrul – The Muslim Vibe

I have recently become addicted to the hit Turkish drama Ertugrul. For those who are unfamiliar with this show, it follows the exploits of a Turkish tribal warrior named Ertugrul during the 13th century when Turkish nomadic tribes were in the process of conquering and settling Anatolia. The first season shows the title character’s Kayi tribe migrating from pasture lands that can no longer support its herds and livestock to new lands near the Syrian city of Aleppo while the second season shows the Kayi tribe migrating back to Anatolia in advance of a pending Mongol attack[1]. The series provides rich historical detail regarding the religious, cultural, social, political, economic, and military dynamics that eventually led to the conquest of Anatolia by Turkish tribes. Ertugrul and the Kayi tribe are of particular interest because Ertugrul is the historical figure who fathered Osman, the founder of the Ottoman Empire. The show therefore provides a window into many of the ideals and values that helped shape the foundations for one of the most powerful and long-lasting empires the world has ever seen.  

As a Muslim who grew up in America, I was initially attracted to the show because it depicts Muslims and Islamic practices and values in a positive light, and I have spent most of my life watching fictional depictions of Muslims that are the opposite. I also love the attention to historical detail provided by the show’s creators. Despite being a fictional drama, the detailed depiction of Islamic and Turkish values and culture in the show can provide valuable lessons to Muslims because it takes place during a time when Muslims were still powerful and more closely adhered to the original values of Islam. As such, this discussion will provide an analysis of the ideas and values depicted in Ertugrul with a view towards suggesting what today’s Muslims can learn from its historical depictions.  

WHAT ERTUGRUL GETS RIGHT:

The need for unity:

Ertugrul does a wonderful job of highlighting important Islamic values. The primary lesson contemporary Muslims should take away from Ertugrul is how important unity is to the preservation of the Muslim community. Throughout the show, the Kayi tribe’s many enemies engage in subterfuge meant to divide and weaken the leadership of the tribe and to prevent them from forming alliances with other groups of Muslims such as the ruler of Aleppo or the Seljuk dynasty. Ertugrul must constantly fight against the instincts of his brother and other tribesmen who do not view attacks on other Muslims as a danger to their own survival and who resent Ertugrul for leading Kayi warriors into battle to defend other, non-Kayi Muslims. As Ertugrul’s ally Wild Demir points out, burying one’s head in sand like an ostrich is not a plan. Similarly, ignoring the slaughter of other Muslims because they are from a different tribe or country will only embolden and strengthen those who seek to divide and conquer Muslims. Just because we may not be related by tribal or even linguistic bonds to other Muslims does not relieve us of our duty to protect each other. Part of the reason contemporary Muslims are so weak is because we have divided ourselves into separate nations and tribes and focus more on our ethnic, linguistic, or doctrinal differences than our common Islamic bonds in direct contradiction of God’s commands. Though it may seem overly simplistic, the need for unity among Muslims cannot be overstated and is one of the primary Islamic values that must be re-emphasized if today’s Muslims are ever going to regain control over their own lands. This becomes even more obvious when one considers that there is no single Muslim nation with the size and resources to compete with the great powers of the world like the US, China, or Russia. In order to develop the strength to compete with these powers, Muslims must emphasize the need for unity so that they can create new entities with the same size, power, and resources as the Ottoman Empire.   

Ertugrul emphasizes the need for unity throughout the series in different ways. For example, in one scene Ertugrul’s alps come upon alps from the Dodurga tribe who have been captured by the Mongols. Although these alps have fought against Ertugrul and were even hunting him when they were captured, his alps still save them. Their willingness to forget their disagreements with their rivals and still fight to save them is an important lesson for contemporary Muslims who seem to spend more time bickering among each other than working together. In the same way that Ertugrul’s alps were willing to put their differences aside and help their fellow Muslims, contemporary Muslims must also bury their animosities and disagreements so that they can begin to work together to build a better future for themselves.  

Throughout the series, Ertugrul and his men take great care not to kill other Muslims, even when those Muslims are trying to kill them. At one point, Ertugrul fights his cousin Tugmetkin and his men but makes sure not to kill any of them. This also subtlety emphasizes the need for unity since the murder of other Muslims, even in self-defense and even if it is for a good cause will inevitably fracture the Muslim community. This is particularly true when the other Muslims, such as Tugmetkin, have been deceived into attacking their fellow Muslims. Ertugrul’s restraint against Muslims who are trying to kill him is a testament to his understanding that murdering these men will only strengthen his enemies. Since the first Muslim civil war, Muslims have been too quick to shed each other’s blood and the consequences of this violence are the deep divisions that continue to separate us today. Violence must be an extreme last resort among Muslims, and it must only be used by governments that have been democratically chosen from among the members of the community against those who have committed grave crimes. In the same way that Ertugrul’s father would not execute his rival, Kurdoglu, without strong evidence, the state’s monopoly on violence must only be exercised in extreme cases after all the evidence has been fairly reviewed and due process has been given to the accused. Aside from this rare exception, violence among Muslims can never be tolerated. Ertugrul seems to understand this as well.  

How Muslim leaders should conduct themselves:

Another extremely important lesson we can learn from Ertugrul relates to how Muslim leaders should conduct themselves. Ertugrul does not seek wealth or power to satisfy his ego. In fact, he must be convinced by his loved ones that he should take over leadership of the Kayi tribe because he keeps insisting that he prefers hunting over ruling the tribe. He always prioritizes the welfare of his people and believes that it is his duty to serve them. Leadership is not a vehicle to wealth and power for Ertugrul, instead it is a burden and a duty. Since he does not attempt to acquire power to enrich himself and views himself as duty bound to protect not just his Kayi tribe, but all Muslims, Ertugrul is able to attract loyal soldiers who are not interested in wealth either. Instead of wealth and power, Ertugrul and his men are bound together by a common sense of duty that is rooted in their Islamic worldview. As such, Ertugrul, though clearly the leader of his men, relates to them as a loving brother. He does not use fear or violence to motivate them. He even serves them food on several occasions. His humility, kindness towards his subordinates, sense of duty and justice, and unwavering commitment to protect his fellow Muslims are his greatest strengths and exemplify the ideal Muslim ruler. This is best contrasted by his cousin, Tugmetkin, who is a brave but young and immature member of the Dodurga tribe allied to the Kayis. Tugmetkin is primarily motivated by ego since he wishes to be seen as a great leader and warrior. Since his primary motivation is rooted in arrogance and ego, he is not an effective leader and must often resort to humiliating his men or harsh corporal punishments to maintain discipline. Tugmetkin is not the only example of poor leadership depicted in Ertugrul. The ruler of Aleppo and many of the leaders of the Kayi and Dodurga tribes are only interested in power so that they can live luxurious lifestyles, accumulate wealth, or satisfy their egos. 

Ertugrul’s leadership qualities and the way in which he treats his people are also important in helping him to turn his Alps into a highly effective fighting force. This is part of the process Ibn Khaldun first described relating to the development of “group feeling[2]” and how this leads to attaining what he terms “royal authority.” According to Ibn Khaldun, “group feeling” refers to the feelings of kinship and loyalty that cause people to work and fight together for their mutual betterment. The term “group feeling” is therefore a shorthand way of describing why and how members of a particular tribe or group develop the military ability to assert political control over their societies by attaining “royal authority.” In Ertugrul, the Kayi tribe develops superior military abilities because its warriors develop personal loyalty and feelings of brotherhood towards each other, which provides exceptional cohesion to its fighting units. The strong “group feeling” of the Kayis allows them to take full advantage of the martial abilities their nomadic lifestyle provides.

All the Turkmen tribes in Ertugrul have similar lifestyles, thus all their alps are excellent archers, cavalrymen, scouts, and light infantry. What separates the Kayis from the other tribes such as the Cavdars or Dodurgas is that their “group feeling” is stronger. This is primarily rooted in the fact that the leaders of the Kayi tribe both in their personal relationships and interactions and in the way they carry out their public leadership roles always strive to be fair, honest, and generous. They treat the members of their tribe and their warriors as family. They share their food and wealth with them and never hoard more than their fair share. Many of the tribe’s warriors refer to Ertugrul’s mother as their own mother. This is because many of them lost their parents fighting the Mongols and were subsequently raised by Ertugrul’s family. By developing a leadership style that emphasizes fairness, advancement through merit, and trust, Ertugrul allows the Kayis and their allies to develop the sort of “group feeling” that provides them with significant military advantages, and this allows Ertugrul to expand his inner circle by developing alliances with others outside of his tribe based on their similar worldviews and values. By treating his allies and warriors as family, Ertugrul creates a “group feeling” among his supporters that gives them strong feelings of loyalty and trust which, in turn, allows them to fight better together. This is consistent with Ibn Khaldun’s view that “group feeling” can only be attained by developing an ethos based on justice and fairness.

The need to retain control over the economy and the need for free trade:

Ertugrul also correctly highlights that allowing outsiders economic control will eventually lead to conquest. In the first season, the Crusaders trick both the ruler of Aleppo and the Kayis into entering into trade agreements that make them more vulnerable to their machinations. Though trade, even between rivals, can often be beneficial to both parties, Ertugrul and the Muslim world’s history of colonial exploitation show that allowing outsiders too much control over the means of economic production will eventually undermine the health and strength of the economy. This will eventually lead to conquest and subjugation. Again, the relevant distinction here is control versus healthy trade. As Ertugrul correctly illustrates, the former is to be avoided at all cost. Though Ertugrul does not deal with the subject of international trade in detail, the history of the Muslim world shows that this can have a positive impact on economic development so long as it is managed properly and does not lead to ceding control over the means of production or undermine them in some way.   

Another lesson Muslims should learn from Ertugrul is the need to promote the free exchange of goods, people, and ideas between the entire Muslim world. Ertugrul depicts a Muslim world that is integrated through interconnected layers of political alliances, trade networks, and religious networks. These connections and the infrastructure that supported them helped to create what was essentially a free trade zone that allowed for the movement of goods, people, and ideas throughout the Islamic world in a manner that helped it to develop a common culture and integrated economy. The Kayis’ interactions with merchants indicate they are part of a trade network that extends to many, far flung parts of the Muslim world. Though Muslims quickly divided themselves politically, most of the Islamic world has historically been linked through commercial links that were reinforced by the ease with which both people and ideas could travel throughout it.

The European conquest of the Muslim world destroyed these links and the dictators that rule the region today have refused to re-create them out of fear that doing so would threaten their power. If Muslims are ever going to resurrect themselves, they must rebuild these links and they must not limit themselves to only commercial ties. They must also rebuild the social and cultural connections that used to bind Muslims together by creating new multi-national organizations that can allow Muslims to develop bonds with each other based on a wide variety of interests such as sports, hobbies, religion, art, poetry, common professional or commercial interests such as trade associations or associations of lawyers, scientists, teachers, law enforcement officials, etc.

Reinforcing such bonds by promoting tourism between Muslim countries and building linked infrastructure to facilitate this exchange of goods, people, and ideas will be vital to promoting the integration of Muslims. For example, one of the show’s main characters, Ibn Arabi, was born in Andalusia. Despite being born in modern day Spain, Ibn Arabi is welcomed by the Turkish speaking Kayis in Anatolia and becomes an important spiritual guide for the tribe.  He also uses his influence to convince Ertugrul to join a Sufi order. By highlighting this order, the show is illustrating how Muslims from different tribal or ethnic backgrounds used such organizations to create ties to each other that transcended their ethnic or tribal identities. The depiction of Sufi brotherhoods that are comprised of members from different parts of the Islamic world can also serve as a guide for the creation of new organizations that can use similar methods to unite Muslims in a way that can overcome their ethnic or linguistic differences. However, since religious associations are not the only way to promote cultural exchange in the modern world, contemporary Muslims should seek to create new international organizations focused on a wide range of interests such as those listed above.

While Ertugrul’s ideas and depictions of Islamic values are mostly positive, there are also lessons to be learned from some of the negative depictions in the show.

WHAT ERTUGRUL GETS WRONG:

How the tribe’s political structure marginalizes its workers and women:

As such, it is now time to discuss the shortcomings depicted in the show. The primary lesson in this category relates to the division of power within the Kayi tribe. Though a meeting of tribal notables called a “headquarters” is held to settle disputes and formulate policy, power is overwhelmingly concentrated in the hands of the tribe’s ruler, the Bey, and this power seems to be disproportionately derived from military power. Two classes of people appear to be permanently excluded from power: the workers who manufacture the tribe’s goods or oversee its food production and its women. 

Headquarter meetings provide a way to get input from the tribe’s notables and matters are usually settled by a vote. These nascent democratic mechanisms help the tribe to formulate intelligent policies and plans. The problem with these meetings is that they exclude all but the most influential members of the tribe. Also, the process used to determine who attends these meeting is unclear but seems to favor men who have proven themselves fighting for the tribe. The accumulation of power by the tribe’s warriors and the exclusion of the tribe’s workers such as its shepherds and craftsmen from headquarter meetings creates an excessive reliance on the tribe’s military class to develop policies. During times of war (such as an impending Mongol attack) it makes sense to defer to the military; however, based on the depictions in Ertugrul, this division of power seems to have been permanent.

Ertugrul depicts the beginning of the Ottoman Empire which eventually collapsed because its military class developed considerably more power than its business class. They then used their political power to allocate far too many resources to the military which undermined the economic foundations of the Empire particularly once the Ottoman military was no longer able to conquer new territory to exploit. When viewed in this light, the ramifications of the division of power within the Kayi tribe become easier to understand. As such, when contemporary Muslims look at how power is distributed in the Kayi tribe, they must understand that the tribe’s excessive reliance on its warriors to make decisions without input from the economically productive members of the tribe is an inherent weakness and that this weakness was present throughout the Ottoman Empire and is still present in far too many modern Muslim societies.  

The second class of people routinely excluded from the tribe’s headquarter meetings are its women. The only woman who consistently participates in these meetings is Ertugrul’s mother, Hayme, and her participation does not occur until after her husband’s death. The lack of political power by the tribe’s women reflects the wider marginalization of women within it. The female characters in Ertugrul are often extremely intelligent and perceptive. They usually have an easier time recognizing who they can trust and who is only serving their own selfish interests than their male counterparts. Despite their clear abilities and talents, aside from Ertugrul’s mother, they are prevented from assuming overt political or military power. Instead, the women in Ertugrul must resort to manipulative tactics to have their voices heard. Though the show often depicts these women as being unscrupulous or overly ambitious, their willingness to resort to tricks to accumulate power is a natural consequence of their inability to assume direct power or even routinely participate in headquarter meetings. When one considers the harem intrigue that caused so much damage during the Ottoman era, one must consider the underlying cause of this intrigue which is directly related to the exclusion of women from power.  

Though excluding women from power was routine during Ertugrul’s time, this same dynamic has continued to haunt contemporary Muslims who still marginalize women. The exclusion of women from power despite their obvious talents solely because of their gender is an indictment of Muslim men who often twist the tenets of the Islamic faith to justify their behavior. This is particularly frustrating when compared to how women were treated during the era of the Rashidun. The headquarter meetings depicted in Ertugrul are similar to the meetings held during the Rashidun era to decide policies; however, during this era women were active participants in these meetings.  The Caliph Omar even appointed a woman as the head of the market in Medina, which is roughly analogous to appointing a woman as the head of the department of commerce in modern times.

Instead of being allowed to utilize their talents for the betterment of the entire Muslim community, Muslim women have been marginalized and disenfranchised in direct contravention of the precedents established under the Rashidun in a manner that has greatly contributed to the Muslim world’s weakness and stagnation. It is impossible to grow and develop in the modern world while preventing half of the potential labor force from participating to the full extent of their talents.

Though Ertugrul is presented as a wise and brave ruler, in my opinion, his sister-in-law Selcan is the most capable member of the Kayi tribe. She is always the first to diagnose subterfuge, has the sharpest business acumen, is brave and would make a worthy ruler. The fact that she is automatically excluded from power explains her volatile personality as she must constantly force people to listen to her while Ertugrul can simply speak during a headquarters meeting. Despite being smarter than almost everyone around her, Selcan is constantly ignored or told to keep her opinions to herself. If Selcan were a man, her intelligence would have catapulted her to a position of leadership but since she is a woman she is ignored and marginalized. The fact that her talents are wasted is an indictment of the tribe’s political structure and the Muslim world in general. The sad truth is that nearly 800 years after the events in Ertugrul, women in the Muslim world are still denied the opportunity to realize their talents and this is one of the main reasons Muslims are so weak and impoverished. 

Glorifying war is not the way to promote an Islamic re-birth:

Another important lesson Muslims should learn from Ertugrul is that its glorification of violence is no longer appropriate. The first two seasons show the Kayi tribe under direct attack from both Crusaders and Mongols. The tribe’s military actions are all defensive in nature and, as such, are presented in a morally defensible light. However, it is important to remember that not all Ottoman military actions were defensive in nature. The Ottoman Empire was historically expansionist in its outlook which means that many of its wars were wars of choice. Instead of relying on simplistic tropes that paint the West (or the Crusaders in Ertugrul) as being motivated only by greed and hatred of Muslims, we must understand how our own actions have contributed to the animosity between Muslims and Christians and we must stop seeking solutions that are only based on war. In the same way that the political power of the tribe’s warriors likely caused them to place too much emphasis on military solutions, contemporary Muslims have also been too quick to use war to settle their disputes. The excessive reliance on military power has taken away valuable resources from education and scientific development which are the real basis for civilizational power. The truth is that war is evil. It is chaos, death, and destruction. War should never be glorified and must only be entered into as an absolute last resort because nothing good comes of war. All wars do is create widows and orphans and destroy families which, in turn, destroys society.  

In Ertugrul, violence is primarily directed towards Crusaders and Mongols that wish to conquer Muslim territory. The reality is that most violence within the Muslim world is perpetrated by Muslims against other Muslims. If the message of Pan-Islamic unity articulated in Ertugrul is ever going to become a reality, Muslims must learn to emphasize economic and political cooperation as a means to achieving unity amongst ourselves and we must realize that war is not the true path. Again, Ertugrul does not appear to advocate for such violence since the military action from the first two seasons is all defensive in nature, but the glorification of war has often been used to justify fratricidal wars among Muslims or wars of conquest against non-Muslims. If Muslims are ever going to unite it cannot be through war. It must be through peaceful and voluntary economic and political integration. A union of Muslims based on war and death could only ever lead to tyranny and dictatorship. Only a union of Muslims entered into freely and based on Islamic ideas of unity and equality that is implemented by the creation of democratic political institutions that fairly share power among Muslims without allowing any one tribe or group of Muslims to unfairly dominate the others can successfully unite Muslims. 

Instead of turning itself into a militarized state, a union of Muslims nations would be better served by investing in its educational institutions so that Muslims can begin developing their scientific abilities. If contemporary Muslims are ever going to follow Ertugrul’s example and resurrect themselves, it will not be through war but by revitalizing the culture and intellectual climate of the Islamic world so that it can reclaim its historical place as the world’s leader in these fields. Muslims once invented algebra, gave Aristotle new life and meaning, pioneered the medical sciences and were the main drivers of culture, technological innovation, and science in the world. We must return to our previous ways of prioritizing intellectual honesty and critical analysis so that we can begin producing a new generation of thinkers that can contribute to humanity’s intellectual development. Glorifying war, though it makes for more exciting television, is not the way to promote the re-birth of the Muslim world.  

CONCLUSION:

Ertugrul is one of my favorite television shows, but it is still just a television show. It can provide valuable lessons for Muslims if we examine its various messages and subplots with a critical eye. If Muslims are ever going to resurrect Islamic civilization, we must do so in a way that accounts for the realities of the modern world while still adhering to the appropriate Islamic values. We must invest in our educational institutions and fundamentally change our cultural attitudes towards discussing taboo subjects. And we must allow our fellow Muslims to live their personal lives as they see fit without interference so that people can feel free to express themselves and follow their passions without fear. This is the only way to unleash people’s creative energy and this energy is the key to technological innovation and growth. It is impossible to limit artistic, personal, or political expression and still create an environment that is conducive to technological innovation or intellectual growth. Authoritarian tendencies bleed over into all aspects of society and even if officially limited to certain areas such as political speech, they will affect unrelated academic areas. If Muslims ever hope to re-establish their former power consistent with the themes developed in Ertugrul we must begin by creating an atmosphere that is conducive to technological innovation and strong economic growth as these are necessary for developing the sort of military abilities that will be necessary to prevent further conquests of Muslim lands. Such inclusive and tolerant attitudes will also be key to uniting Muslims. The Muslim world is so large and diverse that only a culture that embraces diversity and peaceful co-existence can facilitate its unification. Those Muslims who wish to see the unity of the Muslim community restored must therefore embrace Islamic notions of tolerance and compassion as well as the idea that there is no compulsion in religion. Muslims who seek to impose their religious views on others through force or violence are hypocrites because their views and actions prevent the very unity that will be necessary to end the subservience of the Muslim world and the slaughter of innocent Muslims in so many parts of the world. 

This brings us to Ertugrul’s last and most painful lesson. There is no real life Ertugrul. Instead of waiting for an idealized hero to come save us, Muslims must begin to work together to build the sort of institutions that can unite and strengthen us and that can finally provide the Muslim world with the leadership it so desperately needs. Part of the reason the Muslim world has been so devoid of leadership is that its institutions and culture have proven incapable of producing the sort of selfless and clear-sighted leaders that characterized the early Ottoman period. It is unrealistic to expect rulers to be selfless on their own. Instead of expecting rulers to voluntarily put the interest of the community ahead of their own personal interests, Muslims must begin to create governments that feature institutional mechanisms that can act as a restraint on the selfish impulses of its rulers. The lesson Muslims must learn from Ertugrul is that if we want our leaders to act like Ertugrul we must create the sort of political institutions and culture that can attract honest people and that can incentivize them to put the needs of the community first. The only way to counter the inherently selfish nature of human beings is by developing institutional checks on rulers so that they can no longer use their power to accumulate personal wealth. Instead of empowering rulers that seek wealth and comfort, Muslims must focus on finding rulers that prioritize fighting injustice and defending the weak. We can use Ertugrul’s example as a guide, but ultimately, it is up to the people of the Muslim world to begin building the sort of institutions and culture that can force Muslim leaders to finally start prioritizing the needs of their people over their own selfish desires.   


[1] The present discussion is primarily based on the first 2.5 seasons of the show.

[2] Khaldun, Ibn, Trans by Franz Rosenthal. The Muqaddimah: An Introduction to History. Princeton University Press. Princeton and Oxford.  1967. At pgs. 107-111.

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The Taliban have no reason to celebrate 

Reports coming out of Afghanistan regarding the Taliban’s celebrations are extremely confusing.  The end of any war is always cause for joy because it brings hope for peace. But anyone who thinks the Taliban’s “victory” is worth celebrating as a triumph of Muslim military prowess is a fool with extremely low standards. Glorifying events in Afghanistan is an implicit acceptance of the Muslim world’s unbelievably weak military abilities.

America conquered Afghanistan with such ease that one could almost forgive its leaders for underestimating the Taliban’s ability to re-group. It only needed a few special forces troops and air power to conquer a nation that is over 650,000 square kilometers in the span of a few weeks. The Taliban were completely outmatched and ran away almost immediately. Its conquest was so easy that it never even bothered to station more than 20,300 troops there during the first five years of its occupation.

America withdrew from Afghanistan because, as explained here, it shot itself in the foot in a variety of ways, leading to the Taliban’s resurgence. It then realized it did not care enough to stay and clean up its mess. So, it left. It decided long ago that Afghanistan was not worth the effort but only stayed for so long due to its stubborn pride and corporate interests. And yet it still took the Taliban twenty years, an estimated 50,000 dead soldiers, and 40,000 dead civilians to convince them to leave. That is not a victory worth celebrating.

Afghanistan was easily conquered and occupied by both Russia and America because it has never been able to build an industrial base capable of generating the military capacity to deter these invasions. It has been unable to do so because a significant number of Afghans are philosophically opposed to the type of reforms needed to modernize. The Taliban’s views are not an aberration within Afghan society or the Muslim world either. They are just an extreme manifestation of the authoritarian tendencies that have prevented Muslims from instituting the changes necessary to thrive in the modern world. As such, the debacle in Afghanistan is an indictment of Afghan society and a reflection of the weakness that has consumed the entire Muslim world.

While it was occupying Afghanistan, the US decided to invade Iraq too. Using fabricated evidence, it concocted a tale to justify an invasion that led to the slaughter of between 200,000 – 1,000,000 innocent Iraqis. No one is sure how many Iraqis died because no one bothered to count all the bodies. It was able to violently maintain control over both nations simultaneously for many years, and only left after it grew tired of wasting resources on countries that were not part of its core national security interests.

America’s embarrassingly easy conquests and overlapping occupations of Afghanistan and Iraq and the inability of the entire Muslim world to prevent these attacks are just one piece of the puzzle. The tiny nation of Israel has established complete military control over the Eastern Mediterranean and bombs its Arab neighbors with impunity when it is so inclined. It also launches clandestine and aerial attacks against Iran, which can only respond with threats and impotent, asymmetric gestures. Pakistan has tried and failed to take Kashmir from India three times. The string of military defeats suffered by Muslims is too long to list in its entirety. But they are all related to the same root causes.

The simple fact is that Muslim societies would not be so prone to conquest if their institutions had not already rotted from within.

There are still too many Muslim nations living under the tyranny of dictatorship. The violent authoritarian control exercised by the region’s military and/or religious elite[1] has crippled the ability of Muslims to build effective governments and social institutions capable of nurturing the economic and technological development necessary to end their appallingly weak military abilities. Until Muslim societies wholeheartedly implement serious reforms to their political, legal, educational, social, and economic systems to free themselves from the shackles of dictatorship, they will continue to be subject to the same pattern of conquest they have endured these past five centuries. Instead of blaming outsiders, Muslims must accept responsibility for their failures. The simple fact is that Muslim societies would not be so prone to conquest if their institutions had not already rotted from within, making them such inviting targets.

The military incompetence of Muslim nations represents an existential threat that can no longer be ignored.

America’s occupations were but the latest in a long line that all prove a simple point. It is time for change. The military incompetence of Muslim nations represents an existential threat that can no longer be ignored. Imagine what would have happened if Afghanistan and Iraq were actually important to the US. It has already proven it will do anything to win a fight, even if that means dropping atomic bombs on an island full of emaciated women and children. America may not care about the Muslim world today, but the world is volatile, and things change. If it decided to come back, no one could stop it.

America is not the only country Muslims should worry about either. Any Muslim welcoming China, given its treatment of the Uighurs, is a hypocrite and an even bigger fool. In some respects, Russia has been an even more brutal conqueror of Muslims than the West. The Czars conquered vast Muslim populations who have repeatedly tried and failed to throw off the yoke of Russian occupation. These examples highlight a glaring pattern of weakness prevalent across nearly the entirety of the Muslim world. The Taliban and those with similar views may see events in Afghanistan as a vindication of their beliefs, but that only proves how foolish they truly are.

Afghanistan’s new rulers appear to have learned how to deal with Western media. One can only hope they have also studied the deeper causes of the Western world’s military dominance, which is the result of its democratic forms of government, inclusive political and social institutions, secure property rights, and free speech protections. These have allowed the West to create governments, schools, and private companies capable of stimulating the economic and technological development necessary to develop advanced military capabilities. Until the Muslim world implements reforms that can lead to similar capabilities, it will continue to be a victim of conquest.

Instead of celebrating, the Taliban should ask themselves why their nation was so easily conquered and why it took so long to evict Russia and America. Doing so requires deciphering why it has been unable to modernize or develop a system of government that allows its diverse people to work together. Until they solve these riddles, they will be unable to develop policies that can ensure they are never conquered again. By extension, the rest of the Muslim world should be asking, to varying degrees, why it has been so weak for so long. If Afghanistan was a victory for Muslim arms, I shudder to think about what a defeat would look like.

Having discussed the problem of the Muslim world’s military incompetence, here are some ideas to correct these issues.

The author is a US Navy veteran and creator of the blog www.mirrorsfortheprince.com where he examines the causes of the Muslim world’s sustained weakness and suggests reforms that can help it modernize.


[1] Kuru Ahmet, “Islam, Authoritarianism, and Underdevelopment,” (New York: Cambridge University Press, 2019), 3-6, 9-12, 93-101, 225.

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It is time to create a Muslim NATO

As explained in more detail here, America no longer has the desire to act as the Muslim world’s military hegemon. As such, it is only a matter of time before the US relinquishes its role as the dominant military power within the Islamic world. Though the contours and timing of its withdrawal are still uncertain, Muslim nations must begin considering how this withdrawal will impact them and how they should react. The changes that are likely to transpire represent a “critical juncture[i]” in the history of the Muslim world that will determine its trajectory for several decades. The reaction of Muslim nations will be pivotal in determining this trajectory. The following is not an attempt to predict what Muslim nations will do, but to suggest what they should do.

THERE IS NO SINGLE MUSLIM NATION POWERFUL ENOUGH TO ASSUME THE SECURITY ROLE THE US HAS FULFILLED

There is currently no Muslim nation with the military and economic resources to act as a military hegemon within the Muslim world. In fact, the most powerful military in the Middle East belongs to Israel. Among Muslim nations, Pakistan fields the most powerful military but given its fixation on India and extreme underdevelopment, it does not have the capacity to project military power beyond its borders. Given the current security dynamics in the region and the military weakness of most Muslim states, particularly the Arab states[ii], a withdrawal of US forces from the Islamic world will lead to further instability due to the security vacuum such changes will create[iii]. As such, the governments of the region must devise new policies that can fill the vacuum created by America’s inevitable withdrawal. Though not a direct cause of the Muslim world’s underlying weakness, America’s military presence has certainly helped entrench it and the dependence of Muslim nations on its power will make developing adequate military capabilities considerably more difficult.

There is no single Islamic nation capable of becoming a military hegemon on its own because none of them have the size and resources to compete with Russia, China, the US, or a united Europe. The Ottoman Empire was the last great Islamic empire, and it was never able to overcome the geographic vulnerability of having to defend itself against a powerful and antagonistic Persia to the East, an expansionist Russia to its North and a resurgent Europe to its Northwest. Ultimately, Muslims have no choice but to pursue policies that will lead to the sort of unification that Europe has undergone since the end of WWII since this is the only way to create an Islamic political entity with the resources to provide the Muslim world with the security and stability it so desperately needs.

Talking about the integration of Muslim countries considering their highly fractured relations may strike some as fantasy and to a certain extent, it is. However, it is highly doubtful anyone standing in the rubble of Germany or France after WWII could ever have imagined how integrated and prosperous both countries would be so soon after the end of that conflict. In many respects, Europe has a much greater legacy of conflict between its nations than the nations of the Muslim world. In fact, WWII is most accurately interpreted as the culmination of a series of wars resulting from the evolution of Prussia into modern day Germany. As the individual German states united, the power dynamics in Europe shifted, resulting in a series of wars that included WWI and WWII. The chaos and constant warfare that plagued Europe did not stop until a comprehensive political and economic solution in the form of the European Community was created. Some may counter that it was the absolute military victory of the Allied powers that ended this cycle of conflict, and this is true to a degree. But the Allies also decisively won WWI and despite all the carnage of that conflict, Europe was engulfed in war just two decades later. It was not until Western Europe integrated its economies and created the political institutions to manage this integration that the cycle of warfare between Europe’s nations stopped.

From this perspective, working towards the integration of Muslim nations is a realistic though difficult goal. The Muslim world is obviously in a different situation than Europe at the end of WWII. In some respects, it has advantages that Europe did not have since it has not experienced the destruction of a cataclysmic war and does not need to completely rebuild itself. However, this same advantage is also a handicap since the shock of WWII was likely a catalyst behind the first efforts to integrate Europe. On the other hand, if the conquest of Muslim lands and the continuing domination of Muslims by outside powers is still not enough to convince Muslims that working together to ensure their freedom and prosperity is a goal they should aspire to, then it is unlikely even a conflict on the scale of WWII would have any effect either. The biggest disadvantage Muslims face in their quest to integrate is the fact that the political institutions of most Muslim countries are closed and extractive[iv] whereas Europe’s institutions were mostly open and inclusive. The most difficult part of trying to integrate Muslim countries will therefore be reforming these repressive and closed political institutions. If Muslims can successfully reform these institutions, they have the potential to finally end their protracted weakness.

THERE ARE ONLY A HANDFUL OF MUSLIM STATES WITH THE CAPACITY TO CREATE SUCH AN ENTITY

The only way to strengthen the Muslim world’s military capabilities is to create a new political entity that can assume the security responsibilities America has performed for the past several decades since there is no Muslim nation capable of handling this role by itself. The most logical route to accomplishing this goal is to resurrect the concepts that led to the creation of CENTO. As the US understood in the 1950s, the nations of Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan have the capacity to form the backbone of a security alliance that could develop into a hegemonic Muslim power. Due to its geography and strategic concerns, Afghanistan should also join this alliance.

The main difference between CENTO and the entity being proposed here (hereinafter referred to as P.A.I.T.) is that the US should not be an active participant. It should support the creation of such an entity, but since the goal is to relieve the US of its security responsibilities, it would make no sense for it to be actively involved in its creation. Instead, it must grow and develop as a purely regional security system that allows Muslims to develop the capacity to work together for their own protection. Due to the extremely weak nature of most governments within the Muslim world, P.A.I.T. also represents the only Islamic countries with the institutional capacity and strategic incentives to create such an entity. Most of the Arab, African, and Central Asian parts of the Muslim world feature either unstable authoritarian governments that are dependent on American or Russian military and economic assistance to maintain their power or failed states that do not have the requisite degree of state centralization to create political, military, and economic institutions that can form the basis for a stable, democratic government, let alone a new multi-national political entity[v].

A security alliance between P.A.I.T. will not work nor be of lasting duration unless it is underpinned by an economic alliance. The first step in creating such an alliance will therefore be creating free trade agreements that can bind the economies and infrastructures of these nations together. Despite their weaknesses and different strategic concerns, the long-term goals of P.A.I.T. are all best served by economic integration meant to create an entirely new political entity with the strength to fill the power vacuum left by America’s departure. Combining the populations of these four countries would create an entity with a large internal market of over 400 million people that is well endowed with natural resources and defensible borders. The presence of such an entity would allow the US to withdraw its troops from the region by taking over its security responsibilities in the same way that the creation of the UAE allowed the British to withdraw their forces from the former Trucial States.

All four nations face strategic environments that should make their elites more receptive to integrationist ideas. In fact, three out of four are locked in existential conflicts they are not strong enough to resolve on their own. As a result, their governments are not as likely to prevent such an alliance from developing out of fear that it may threaten their grip on power. The main issue is that their elites must see an alliance as being in their interests despite their ethnic and doctrinal differences and the short-term upheaval such changes may cause. Though each has its own weaknesses and strategic concerns, they also have the right combination of institutions and strategic needs to overcome these issues if they can muster the political will and vision to do so.

Part of the impetus for creating a new political entity comprised of P.A.I.T. is that doing so will allow them to consolidate their borders and improve their geostrategic positions by creating advantages of strategic depth and improved internal lines of communication and supply to fortify their frontiers. A Pakistan that can rely on the meaningful support of Afghanistan, Turkey, and Iran in its confrontation with India will be much better equipped to handle such a confrontation and would have more options available to it. An Iran that can use free trade agreements with Pakistan, Afghanistan, and Turkey to mitigate the effects of US economic warfare and provide strategic depth for its military assets will be better able to resist the aggression of the US or Israel. By entering into free trade agreements with Pakistan, Iran, and Turkey, Afghanistan will finally be able to develop the economic strength needed to give its people the peace they have lacked for so long but in a way that does not put it under the undue influence of another power. It may also be the only way to legitimize and moderate the new Taliban government. And the inclusion of Turkey into this alliance will provide it with a well-developed economic base that can be used to facilitate economic development between all four nations while finally allowing Turkey to realize its pan-Islamic foreign policy goals. Essentially, by combining portions of the lands and resources of the old Ottoman, Safavid, and Mughal empires, Muslims can create a new entity that has the land and resources to ensure the great powers of the world can no longer dominate them. Eventually (meaning the distant future), such an entity could expand West and North to include many Arab states as well as the Muslim republics of Central Asia.

P.A.I.T. WILL NEED TO UNDERGO SERIOUS REFORMS

In order to come together to create such an entity, each must first undergo serious internal reforms to either create or strengthen their democratic political institutions. The creation of inclusive and genuine democratic institutions that respect the rule of law and rights of their citizens are absolutely vital for creating dynamic economic institutions[vi] and military capabilities. If Muslims ever hope to end the cycle of conquest and subjugation they have endured for the past several centuries, they must institute deep rooted political and socio-economic reforms because this is the only way that they will ever be able to develop the economic, technological, and military power required to protect themselves.  They must also drastically improve their governing institutions by zealously fighting corruption and ensuring their institutions can provide the government services such an entity will need to thrive. They must work to integrate their infrastructures and create new institutions that can facilitate their integration by increasing trade between all four nations so that their elites can quickly see the benefits of having access to each other’s markets.

They will also need to work to overcome the ethnic and doctrinal rivalries that have consumed the Muslim world. The only way to bridge the divide between Sunnis and Shiites, or Turks and Persians, or Punjabis and Pashtuns, etc. is to create institutions that allow these different ethnic and doctrinal groups to fairly share power with each other. In the modern era, those societies that have been able to create institutions that are successful at fairly sharing resources and settling disputes among its citizens regardless of their ethnic or religious differences have achieved the greatest economic prosperity and sometimes even the greatest amount of military power[vii].  Democratic institutions allow for a greater diffusion of power which leads to a greater diffusion of wealth which empowers groups within a society to continue generating and developing more wealth, creating a reinforcing loop of wealth creation and power diffusion and this usually leads to greater overall wealth for everyone[viii]. Given the diversity of the Islamic world, the only way Muslims will ever come together is by creating such institutions to facilitate their integration.

There seems to be a direct correlation between inclusive, democratic institutions and military power. This is because societies that fairly share political power and economic resources and properly incentivize their members to increase their economic output are typically going to be wealthier. The increased wealth of these societies provides them with more resources to spend on developing their military capabilities and the inclusive political institutions used to facilitate this wealth creation also reduces friction between members of these societies because they do not feel unfairly marginalized or excluded from power. As such, the members of such societies benefit from having the resources and necessary group cohesion to obtain a decisive military edge. This also shows that arguments in favor of creating liberal, inclusive political institutions are not based solely on a sense of morality or fairness but that such institutions are the most effective at allowing a society to develop the military capabilities necessary to protect itself from conquest. Their primary advantage is of a practical nature and a recognition that such institutions are the most effective at allowing members of a society to work together for their own betterment and protection. Conversely, ideologies based on narrow concepts of ethnic, tribal, or national identity are typically not as good at developing the sort of inclusive political institutions that can lead to greater economic growth and military power. This is important because the only way an entity comprised of Pakistanis, Turks, Persians, and Afghans will thrive is if it creates institutions that can allow these different groups to work together and the only way to accomplish this is to create transparent and fair ways for them to share power with each other and work together.

AMERICA’S ROLE

As part of its withdrawal the US must help create a coalition of allies that can prevent another hostile great power from replacing it. As such, facilitating the creation of an alliance between P.A.I.T. is in America’s long-term interest as well. The current strategy of relying on unstable monarchial dictatorships or military strongmen will not work in the long run. Simply put, these regimes do not have the strength to stand on their own. Consequently, continuing to support such allies makes no sense. Instead, the US must seek new allies that can defend themselves without help. The biggest hurdle to this is America’s ongoing conflict with Iran. If the US is serious about withdrawing its troops from the Middle East, then this issue will need to be resolved amicably. Doing so within the framework of an alliance comprised of traditional US allies like Pakistan and Turkey may present the best opportunity to do so in a manner that protects the interests of both nations.

The US must fundamentally change its policies towards the governments of the Islamic world by using its diplomatic and economic power to encourage these governments to respect the human rights of their citizens and institute meaningful democratic reforms. The only path to doing this is by supporting the spread of genuine democracy within the Islamic world. It must also stop being so fearful of governments within the Muslim world that have an Islamist component or perspective. The US has allowed its fear of political Islam to justify supporting brutal dictators that have mired the region in war and conflict. Instead of fearing such governments, the US must learn to work with them. As the people of the Muslim world become accustomed to choosing their own leaders, they may choose leaders that will have an Islamic perspective. This may lead to disagreements but does not have to preclude the development of strong relationships with these nations in the same way that even serious disagreements with its allies in Europe or India have not been allowed to undermine the fundamentals of those relationships.

Such policies would allow for the development of stable and democratic governments that respect human rights and can lay the foundation for the development of strong economies. This will eventually allow Muslims to develop the military capabilities necessary to prevent their conquest by another great power on their own. Though it may sound oxymoronic, helping Muslims become self-sufficient is the best way to help them achieve true independence and this is the best way to ensure these countries are never conquered or dominated by another competing great power that would deny America access to the region or use its resources as part of a broader confrontation with the US[ix].

CONCLUSION

It is only a matter of time before the US withdraws its troops from the Muslim world. Muslim nations must therefore develop new ideas that can allow them to fill the security vacuum its departure will create. The leaders of the Muslim world must begin to implement the reforms suggested above if they ever hope to end the cycle of violence and weakness that has consumed their countries. It is up to the nations and people of the Muslim world to devise new strategies that can allow them to finally end their protracted weakness. The policies they have pursued thus far have clearly not worked. The Muslim world has been in a sustained state of weakness for many centuries, and it will take many years to reverse the effects of its long decline. As such, the ideas presented here will take many years to develop and implement and the entity proposed above may never even materialize. However, even small steps taken towards creating it will have a beneficial impact on the Muslim world by increasing trade and helping Muslims work together. Muslims must therefore begin the process of building such an entity as soon as possible if they ever hope to reverse their fortunes.

The Arab states of the Gulf appear to believe creating an alliance with Israel will shield them from Iran while Pakistan and Iran are developing bi-lateral relationships with China. Neither strategy will work. Israel’s military is powerful enough to protect Israeli interests but, considering their aversion to casualties, it is highly doubtful Israel’s leaders will risk IDF soldiers to protect allies in the Gulf or help them secure the Gulf’s shipping lanes. Muslims rejoicing at America’s departure and welcoming China should be wary as well. China’s ethnic cleansing of its Muslims should serve as a warning to those who believe it will be a kinder benefactor than America. The authoritarian structure of its political institutions and refusal to countenance even mild criticism or non-conformity indicate it will be the opposite. Instead of trying to replace the US with another outside power whose interests will then take precedence, Muslims must learn to look to each other for their security needs.

The best way to start is by allowing the people of the Muslim world to re-create the cultural, social, and commercial links that once bound them. Muslim governments and people both need to begin promoting the free exchange of goods, people, and ideas between each other. Islamic societies were once integrated through interconnected layers of political alliances, trade and religious networks. These connections and the infrastructure that supported them helped to create what was essentially a free trade zone that allowed for the movement of goods, people, and ideas throughout the Islamic world in a manner that helped it to develop a common culture and an integrated economy.  If Muslims are ever going to take control of their security needs, they must rebuild these links so that the interests of the Muslim world’s different nations and people begin to align in a manner that leads to further economic, political, and military cooperation.  Ultimately, the nations of the Muslim world have no choice but to adapt to their changing security environment by learning to rely on themselves and each other. Arguing for an alliance between P.A.I.T. may seem like a desperate plan but after centuries of conquest and subjugation, desperate is a fitting description for the Muslim world. The absolute military, political, and economic weakness of the Muslim world will only be corrected through bold measures.    

These ideas are also consistent with the theories developed by Professor Huntington in his important work “The Clash of Civilizations.” The past few decades have illustrated the prescience of his model for understanding international relations and conflict. As he predicted, the world is moving towards a multi-polar international system largely centered around its major civilizational blocks. Before this system can realize its potential, the Islamic world will need to stabilize itself. Until this happens it will continue to destabilize surrounding regions and it will continue to present a security vacuum that outside powers will try to fill. As Prof. Huntington’s model implies, it will fall upon the people and nations of the Muslim world to help themselves since nations from other civilizational blocks will be both unwilling and unable to do so[x].


[i] A “critical juncture” is when a “confluence of factors disrupts the existing balance of political or economic power.” See Acemoglu, Daron and Robinson, James, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, (New York: Crown Business, 2012) at 106.

[ii] The UAE, a.k.a. “little Sparta” is the only Arab nation that has managed to develop adequate military capabilities.

[iii] Bandow, Doug, “Want to Fix the Deficit? Bring Home the Troops,” Foreignpolicy.com, May 28, 2020,  https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/28/us-deficit-military-spending-budget-bring-home-troops/.

[iv] For a more detailed discussion regarding the impact of such institutions, see Acemoglu, Daron and Robinson, James, Why Nations Fail: The Origins of Power, Prosperity, and Poverty, (New York: Crown Business, 2012) at 79-83; 216; 271.

[v] Both Indonesia and Nigeria are too geographically remote, and Nigeria does not face a strategic environment that would cause its elites to support the reforms that would be necessary to join such an entity.

[vi] Again, for a more in-depth discussion of these ideas see Acemoglu, Daron and Robinson, James, Why Nations Fail, (New York: Crown Business 2012) at 79-83; 216; 271.

[vii] Though he does not explain why in great detail, Prof. Bernard Lewis appears to agree with this conclusion in his article “Why Turkey is the only Muslim Democracy,” Middle East Quarterly, March 1994, pp. 41-49.

[viii] Acemoglu, Daron and Robinson, James, Why Nations Fail, (New York: Crown Business 2012) at 306-17.

[ix] The author is obviously thinking about China’s growing influence in the region.

[x] Huntington, Samuel, The Clash of Civilizations: Remaking of World Order, (New York: Touchstone, 1996) pp. 21-29.

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