The ceasefire between Hamas and Israel will not lead to real peace

I really tried to get excited when news of a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas first broke. I desperately wanted to believe it might lead to real peace. That perhaps the insanity of the past two years was finally over. But, deep down, I knew better. There were just too many factors working against it.

The first: Israel is ruled by an indicted war criminal who built his entire political career on promises he would never make peace with the Palestinians. Frighteningly, Netanyahu is not even the most extreme member of Israel’s government. Israeli Minister for National Security, Itzimar Ben-Gvir, has openly advocated for ethnic cleansing against the Palestinians. Heritage Minister Amichai Eliyahu suggested using nuclear weapons against Gaza. There are people in Israel’s government today who would have been considered extreme in the 3rd reich. They are fanatical, unapologetically racist, and have no interest in peace.

The patently ridiculous terms of the agreement itself were another important clue. Israel has spent the past two years murdering 20,000 children while turning tens of thousands more into amputees or orphans. Many of these crimes were live streamed and documented for the entire world to see. There have been countless videos showing Israeli forces attacking unarmed civilians, some of whom were waving white flags. The evidence Israel’s military has intentionally and systematically targeted civilians is overwhelming and irrefutable. Requiring the victims of these crimes to surrender their weapons, while allowing the psychopaths responsible for committing them to keep theirs, defies all logic and common sense. It is both undeniable proof the world is a twisted and evil place, and one more reason to doubt the ceasefire.

Yet another absurd part of the agreement was the pathetically small number of Palestinian hostages who were released. Whereas Hamas was required to release all its hostages, Israel was only required to free 2,000 out of the over 11,000 Palestinians rotting in its dungeons. According to the IDF’s own estimates, 75% of these people are civilians. These innocents have been forced to endure abhorrent conditions including torture and rape by their guards. At least 75 Palestinians have died in custody. Allowing Israel to continue to unjustly hold and abuse so many of these hostages was another signal the agreement was not meant to last. 

Events in Lebanon were equally instructive. Israel and Hezbollah agreed to a “ceasefire” on Nov. 26, 2024. Since then, Israel has attacked Lebanon on a “nearly-daily” basis. More than 270 people have been murdered and the Israeli military continues to occupy Lebanese territory.

Finally, there are the parties meant to guarantee the peace: Donald Trump and America. The former is a completely untrustworthy and unreliable man who spent the first year of this genocide gleefully cheering Israel on. Even before Trump returned to power, America was Israel’s primary ams dealers, financier, and diplomatic shield. Without the unequivocal bi-partisan support of the American government and its mouthpieces in the corporate media, this genocide would have ended after three months because Israel would have run out of ammunition, money, and political support. America’s leaders and media pundits were active accomplices to Israel’s crimes. Allowing them to claim the role of peacemaker at this juncture might be the most ridiculous aspect of this entire affair and the greatest reason to doubt it will lead to lasting peace. 

America’s primary concern has always been protecting Israel, not the Palestinians. The ceasefire must therefore be analyzed in relation to how it impacts Israel. After spending two years razing Gaza to the ground, the IDF found itself mired in a conflict it could not win. Areas declared “clear” of the enemy repeatedly saw renewed resistance, with Hamas fighters adapting and striking back more effectively. Casualties were mounting and its reserves were straining under the pressure of their constant deployments. Given Israel’s increasingly precarious military position and growing international isolation, it is clear the ceasefire was never intended as a reprieve for the Palestinians but as a tactical pause for Israel. Much like its first ceasefire with Hamas, Israel will most likely use the current lull in fighting to rearm and prepare for the next round.

The weeks since its implementation have merely confirmed these fears. Israel has already violated the agreement over a hundred times, killing 226 people. America is still shipping it weapons and its sociopathic leaders have repeatedly threatened to resume their genocide. They are also arming clans and militias throughout Gaza to ensure no sense of calm or stability ever returns to the enclave. 

The cumulative weight of this data proves the ceasefire is a facade meant to protect Israel’s apartheid regime, not lead to sustainable peace. Confident in their military and technological dominance, the butchers of Tel Aviv have embraced a strategy of perpetual war. As such, it is only a matter of time before they resume their slaughter and ethnic cleansing. 

If the Palestinians want real peace, they will need to take matters into their own hands. I suggested many years ago that adopting non-violent methods of civil disobedience was their best option. It might seem insane to suggest such tactics against men who intentionally murder children but the sad reality is the Palestinians are running out of time. They have been abandoned by the cowards who rule the Muslim world and find themselves confronted by well armed fanatics intent on driving them off their land. Armed resistance will only give these evil people more excuses to open fire whereas widespread civil disobedience has the potential to fundamentally shift the dynamics of this conflict in their favor. Since we have all seen what happens to civilians who congregate in Gaza, those Palestinians living in Israel proper and the West Bank will need to lead the way. The only real path to peace is one state with equal rights for all, not a fake ceasefire that Israel can violate with impunity as it continues its occupation and violence. 

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Lessons from Israel’s attack on Qatar

Israel’s attack on Qatar was as outrageous as it was educational. Aside from showing, yet again, that Israel is a threat to the entire Muslim world, it revealed that America’s military presence in the region is not meant to protect its Arab allies, but to subjugate and control them. Most concerning of all, it underscored the enduring weakness of Muslim nations and their inability to adequately respond to Israel’s crimes. The implications of these revelations, once their import fully reverberates through the region, could be profound.

Lesson 1: Israel represents an existential threat to the entire Muslim world:

The strike on Doha was only the latest in a series of brazen Israeli attacks over the past two years. In addition to leveling Gaza and paving the way to annex the West Bank, Israeli forces have invaded and occupied parts of Syria and Lebanon while repeatedly attacking both hundreds of times. They have also launched several devastating attacks on Yemen and Iran. The recent attack on a flotilla of unarmed vessels near Tunisia and the attack against Qatar, brings the total number of countries it has struck to seven. 

Israeli leaders are reported to have contemplated similar strikes against Egypt and Turkey. These reports, when combined with the long list of countries it has already attacked, suggest Israel has intelligence cells collecting targeting data throughout the Muslim world and that no part of it is safe.

In addition to its military operations, Israel has been selling weapons to fuel conflicts across the region and beyond. It is arming the Druze and Kurds in Syria as part of its plan to partition the country. It is also supplying advanced weapons to Cyprus to counter Turkey and arming India in its confrontation with Pakistan. Many of the drones used to attack Pakistan during India’s ill-conceived Operation Sindoor this past May were purchased from Israel. The missile defense system sold to Cyprus is also designed to collect sensitive information about Turkey’s military and appears to be part of a broader effort to support Greek and Cypriot designs on northern Cyprus. 

These military strikes and weapons sales are all part of a long term plan to ensure no Muslim state has the capacity or desire to oppose Israel’s plans to ethnically cleanse and annex Gaza and the West Bank. The attack on Doha was intended to show that any Muslim state foolish enough to interfere with these goals, even through solely diplomatic channels, will be targeted. 

If Israel’s leaders are successful, the consequences for the Muslim world will be catastrophic. Aside from destroying what little remains of Palestine, the ethnic cleansing of Gaza and the West Bank will also flood Egypt, Jordan, and Lebanon with millions of refugees, destabilizing all three nations in the process. This could very easily spell the end of both the Hashemite and Sisi dynasties while reigniting a civil war in Lebanon. 

Similarly, Israel’s plans to dismember Syria will destabilize much of the Levant, Anatolia, and Mesopotamia, while cruelly prolonging the suffering of the Syrian people who have already had to endure decades of dictatorship and civil war. Finally, its desire to topple Iran’s government will unleash anarchy in Pakistan, Turkey, Central Asia, the Caucasus, Iraq, and the Gulf.

In their quest to create a Jewish homeland where Palestinians truly do not exist, Israel’s messianic rulers are willing to plunge much of the region into chaos. Their plans amount to a declaration of war against nearly the entire Muslim world while their nuclear weapons and fanatical worldviews make this declaration an existential threat to all its nations. 

Lesson 2: America’s military posture in the region is not meant to protect its Arab allies but to assert control over them:

The attack on Qatar was particularly shocking because it is a key American ally and host to an important US military base. Over the years, the Qatari government has spent $26 billion on American weaponry, part of which was used to build an air defense system that is operated and controlled by America. This system was meant to protect it from the sort of attack Israel launched against it by integrating Qatar with America’s regional defense network. But instead of protecting its supposed ally, America stood by and allowed the attack to proceed. 

No American officials even bothered to warn Qatar’s leaders until the attack was already under way. The WSJ did its best to create a narrative that absolved America of its culpability. However, due to Washington’s control over the region’s air space, these claims strain credulity. The only logical conclusion, given its robust early warning capabilities, is that America approved of and facilitated Israel’s attack.

In the aftermath, the Trump administration sent Secretary of State Rubio to Israel to show solidarity with indicted war criminal Benjamin Netanyahu by praying with him at the Western Wall. Meanwhile, Ambassador Mike Huckabee explained Israel is America’s only “true partner” in the region and can do as it pleases. These responses are just as revealing as the attack itself. 

They show America’s military “alliance” with Qatar is a mechanism meant to establish a form of neo-imperial military control over it, not protect it. America does not provide Qatar with security, but uses it to further its geopolitical interests. These include establishing military control over the Arab states, in part, to ensure Israel remains the region’s dominant military power and has the freedom to attack any of them. 

Israel’s attack exposed the absurd contradictions that govern the region’s American imposed security architecture. Israel can attack and endanger America’s Arab allies because it is a “true partner” in the crusade to subjugate the Muslim world. The leaders of those Arab states that have capitulated, on the other hand, are merely vassals from a vanquished enemy tribe. Their continued hold on power is contingent on submission, even in the face of direct attacks on their territory. 

Lesson 3: The Muslim world is too weak and divided to challenge Israel or its American backers: 

The Muslim world’s response, or lack thereof, showed exactly why Israel has been able to act with impunity for so long. Its leaders gathered in Doha to express their shock and indignation. Nearly all of them were justifiably concerned that by openly demonstrating their impotence to their own people, these developments threatened their grip on power. They had every right to be upset. Aside from those who rule Yemen and Iran, they had already done everything in their power to either facilitate or ignore Israel’s crimes. Nevertheless, their anger did not lead to action. 

There was a great deal of talk about creating a collective security organization similar to NATO. Egypt, sensing the threat to its Sinai region, proposed an Arab defense force. However, this effort failed to gather support due to a leadership dispute with Saudi Arabia. Qatar and the UAE also opposed the idea, preferring to rely on assurances from the Trump administration that it would restrain Israel. They also objected to any proposals involving coordinated action with Turkey or Iran. As a result, the summit did more to highlight the Muslim world’s divisions than bring it together. It produced nothing more than scathing press releases and empty statements about international law and the need for unity.

This inaction was an admission of weakness and a recognition of their total dependence on America to equip and operate their militaries. Every single member of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) features arsenals full of the latest American military hardware. Keeping this equipment operational requires a constant flow of spare parts and American technical expertise. As detailed by the Washington Post in the fall of 2022, the Saudi and Emirati militaries rely on hundreds of retired American military personnel to perform critical logistical and operational roles. Without this extensive support, their militaries would be crippled within days.

This dependence stems from a widespread lack of indigenous technical and industrial capabilities. Even countries with powerful militaries like Pakistan, Turkey, and Iran, still rely on external suppliers for their most advanced weapons. Thus, collective military action was never a serious option.

There were, however, a range of diplomatic and economic tools available to pressure Israel or its supporters in America, the UK, Germany, and India. They could have withdrawn their ambassadors, suspended trade, cut off intelligence sharing, halted arms purchases, or denied access to their airspace. Any one of these steps, if coordinated among a majority of the world’s 57 Islamic nations, could have imposed a meaningful cost and prompted Israel’s allies to reconsider their uncritical support. But none of these measures were taken.

While the lack of military action reflects their industrial and technical weaknesses, the refusal to take any diplomatic or economic steps reveals a lack of political will. This refusal to act, even in the face of mortal danger, is yet another symptom of the Muslim world’s authoritarian political systems. These are primarily designed to keep their rulers in power by repressing their own citizens, not protect their nations from outside threats. Unfortunately, their inaction was not the least bit surprising. It was merely a continuation of the same dynamics that allowed America to establish its dominance over the region in the first place.

During its war on “terror,” the US conquered Afghanistan and then Iraq with lightening speed, simultaneously occupied both for several years and waged a clandestine war throughout various Muslim nations like Pakistan, Yemen and Somalia. America’s assault was characterized by a total lack of regard for borders, human rights, or the sanctity of life. According to Brown University, the chaos unleashed by its violence killed 4.5 million people. Despite these outrages, no Muslim states took any overt steps to stop these crimes either. 

Israel’s current offensive is, in many ways, a continuation of America’s previous assault. It shows that without serious changes, the pattern of violence will never end. The enhanced military pact announced by Saudi Arabia and Pakistan shortly after the summit hints at emerging strategic shifts, but the lack of immediate action ensures Israel’s crimes will go unchallenged for the foreseeable future. 

America’s assault helped trigger the Arab Spring and the collapse of regimes in Tunisia, Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Egypt. It is too early to accurately forecast how Israel’s violence will reverberate. What is certain is that it is only a matter of time before the next massacre or sensational attack and that the cumulative toll of this violence will have lasting and unforeseen consequences. It is very likely that by refusing to take any action against Israel, many of the region’s leaders are unwittingly planting the seeds of their own demise. The leaders of the GCC survived the shocks of the Arab Spring. It is too early to tell if they can survive the far more violent storms that will inevitably follow Israel’s rampage. 

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America is Pakistan’s enemy, not its friend

On the surface, the world’s geopolitical sands always appear to be shifting, leading states to constantly realign their policies and alliances. However, due to the unchanging nature of geography and the slow, cumulative effects of cultural, idealogical, technological, and economic developments on political systems, states have core interests that rarely change. As a result, many geopolitical “shifts” are often more illusion than reality.

Pakistan’s fluctuating relationship with the United States exemplifies these dynamics perfectly. During the Cold War, the US was one of Pakistan’s closest allies and leading arms suppliers. Cracks in the relationship began to emerge during the late 1970s following General Zia-ul-Haq’s rise to power. These tensions did not result in a complete break, as the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979 forced a reconciliation that deepened bilateral ties for the next decade. The withdrawal of the Soviet Union and Pakistan’s nuclear weapons program soon led to another rupture that persisted until Pakistan became relevant again during America’s post 9/11 assault on the Muslim world. 

This rapprochement was characterized by glaring contradictions from the start due to the conflicting core interests guiding America’s and Pakistan’s policies. America’s plan for Afghanistan involved empowering Pakistan’s enemies from the Northern Alliance while marginalizing its traditional allies among the Pashtun tribes and allowing India to establish a presence on its western border. Faced with these developments, Pakistan had little choice but to clandestinely support the Taliban despite realigning itself with America. 

U.S.-Pakistan relations cooled again after the American withdrawal from Afghanistan. They remained tepid until recently when Pakistan’s leaders reminded America of their ability to hunt down its enemies while simultaneously enticing it with access to potentially valuable oil reserves and mineral deposits. This led to a flurry of high level meetings, including a visit by Pakistan’s Field Marshal Munir to the White House and talk of a “strategic reset.”

Much like their past realignments, this latest rapprochement is mostly illusory. The enduring mismatch between American and Pakistani core interests makes a true convergence unlikely. 

To understand why, one need only look to America’s relationship with India. Recent tensions aside, the United States is committed to building a strategic partnership with India, with the goal of transforming it into a major regional military power. This effort began in earnest with the 2008 U.S.-India Nuclear Agreement. Since then, the U.S. has sold India over  $20 billion in weapons and is currently investing billions more into its military-industrial base. 

India’s military actions against Pakistan in 2016, 2019, and May of this year are a direct result of these weapons sales, which have empowered India’s fanatical rulers to pursue their dreams of establishing Indian hegemony over the entire Subcontinent. Despite the growing extremism within its ruling elite, America remains committed to arming New Delhi and has no regard for the danger this poses to Pakistan. 

U.S. support for India is part of a broader strategic agenda aimed at ensuring American military dominance across key regions. This includes maintaining a form of neo-imperial military control over substantial portions of the Middle East and supporting apartheid Israel in its quest to destabilize and weaken Iran’s government. 

America’s policies against Iran have been particularly harmful to Pakistan. Its sanctions have prevented the completion of critical infrastructure projects and hindered the development of broader trade relations between the two neighbors, limiting Pakistan’s ability to enhance its energy security and regional connectivity. Attempts to topple Iran’s government also endanger Pakistan’s future by creating the potential for violence to spill over the border and further destabilize its restive western provinces.

America’s malign activities throughout the Muslim world have had a similarly negative impact. Violence in Yemen, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, or Libya may not impact Pakistan directly. But these countries represent Pakistan’s natural allies and trading partners. By destabilizing them, America is effectively depriving Pakistan of the regional partners it needs to develop its own economic networks and power, impoverishing and weakening it over the long run.  

America’s pattern of military interventions and coercive policies in the Muslim world is driven by an underlying strategy: to prevent the emergence of a Muslim state capable of challenging its regional dominance. This strategic calculus helps explain Washington’s persistent unease towards Pakistan. Despite their history of cooperation, the United States imposed sanctions targeting Pakistan’s nuclear and missile programs – clear signs of mistrust that reflect broader concerns about Pakistan’s strategic potential. With its large population, strategic geographic position, and powerful military, Pakistan is well-positioned to emerge as a leading power in the Muslim world – making it a long-term threat rather than a reliable partner in the eyes of American policy makers.

Pakistan’s leadership should carefully assess the historical record of U.S. foreign policy toward states it perceives as threats. Between its weapons sales, sanctions and direct military actions, America has killed millions. Its sanctions against Iraq killed an estimated 1.5 million people, including 576,000 children. The so called “war on terror” killed 4.5 million more and its wide ranging military support for Saudi Arabia’s war against Yemen killed another 377,000. Added together that’s almost 6.4 million people. America’s support for Israel’s ethnic cleansing campaign, which has already led to the slaughter of 60,000 Palestinians including 18,500 children, shows it learned nothing from these crimes and is perfectly capable of committing similar atrocities in the future.

Pakistan’s leaders have responded to the danger with appeasement. Successive governments have acquiesced to American demands by curtailing large scale trade with Iran, avoiding public criticism of U.S. regional policies, and failing to impose even symbolic diplomatic costs for Washington’s violent policies. 

Things recently took a sycophantic turn when Pakistan’s leaders nominated Donald Trump for the Nobel Peace price and gave the US general in charge of helping apartheid Israel massacre tens of thousands of innocent women and children an award. Their plan to grant American companies access to Pakistan’s natural resources is equally servile. By pursuing what amounts to a neo-colonial arrangement, the country’s leadership risks surrendering the lion’s share of wealth from potentially transformative mineral and energy deposits to American corporations – undermining national sovereignty and forfeiting long-term economic benefits in the process. 

The desire to appease America is somewhat understandable given its powerful military and violent tendencies. But appeasement that prevents Pakistan from building the strength needed to protect itself is not a sustainable or strategic path forward. 

America’s irrational justifications for its violence against Iraq and Iran offer sobering lessons. The United States sold Saddam Hussein the chemical weapons his forces used during the Iran-Iraq War, only to later use those same weapons as an excuse for a full-scale invasion—despite evidence Iraq had already dismantled them. Similarly, it backed Israel’s actions against Iran under the pretext of halting a nuclear program that Iran had already shown a willingness to dismantle through negotiations, as it did in the 2015 JCPOA deal. These examples make it clear that Pakistan’s nuclear arsenal could easily be used to justify violence against it one day. They also show neither appeasement nor even unilateral disarmament are reliable safeguards against U.S. hostility. 

The geopolitical landscape today is far less forgiving than it was during the Afghan conflict, when Pakistan was able to play a double game—supporting the U.S.-led invasion while simultaneously backing elements of the Taliban. The current circumstances do not lend themselves to such subterfuge. As such, Pakistan must chart a new path rooted in attaining strategic autonomy, rather than one shaped by the shifting goals of an external superpower. 

The foundation of such a policy must be the development of a robust regional alliance with Iran and Turkey centered on economic integration and security cooperation. By fostering such a partnership, Pakistan can assume a constructive role in revitalizing a significant portion of the Muslim world while simultaneously strengthening itself. Achieving this vision will require comprehensive political, legal, and fiscal reforms aimed at building the sort of technologically advanced, export-driven economy needed to support such an alliance. 

Until Pakistan’s leadership embraces these difficult but necessary steps, the country will remain vulnerable. While a few voices, such as Lt. Gen. (Ret.) Asad Durrani, have warned of the danger, most of the country’s elite appear committed to a strategy of accommodation. Their complacency ignores the simple fact that a “strategic reset” with the United States, absent any alignment of core interests that extends beyond resource extraction and counterterrorism cooperation, is illusory. Washington’s arms sales to India and its long-standing policy of trying to subjugate the Muslim world mean America is Pakistan’s enemy, not its friend. It is time Pakistan’s decision-makers recognize this reality and act accordingly.

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Israel’s attack on Iran highlights the desperate need for change 

It is hard not to get a feeling of deja vu when one writes about the Muslim world. Nearly every geopolitical event of note involves a spectacular military defeat or failed state collapsing in on itself. Israel’s attack on Iran earlier this summer is no different. It is yet another episode that vividly illustrates the military dominance Western powers have had over Muslim states for centuries. 

On June 12th, Israel launched an unprovoked surprise attack against Iran. It has attacked Iran many times over the years but the scale and magnitude of this latest round of violence was far greater than any of those previous assaults or acts of sabotage. Over a period of twelve days, its forces launched hundreds of strikes on military, nuclear, energy, educational, residential and media sites across the country, causing widespread damage and mayhem. America joined in at the last minute too, using its stealth bombers to destroy three nuclear facilities. At least 639  Iranians were murdered, among them women, children, and several high ranking Iranian military officers and scientists. Many of these officials were killed alongside their families while sleeping in the dead of night. Israeli leaders and their partners in America argued their violence was necessary to eliminate the threat posed by Iran’s nuclear weapons program. As usual, they made no sense. 

For starters, Iran was not trying to build nuclear weapons. It has been on the threshold of weaponizing its uranium stockpile for years but has intentionally refrained from doing so in the hopes of negotiating a settlement with the US and its Western allies. In fact, it was preparing for a sixth round of negotiations to do exactly that when it was attacked. Perhaps most galling of all, America unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA treaty Iran signed to give up its nuclear pursuits in 2015 and American intelligence officials recently issued a report indicating Iran was not trying to build nuclear weapons. Attacking Iran under the pretense of preventing it from building weapons it was not trying to build is a ridiculous and illogical argument. 

Even if Iran managed to build nuclear weapons, which it has every right to do, it would never use one against Israel because Israel has its own stockpile of nuclear bombs. Under the logic of mutually assured destruction or MAD, that makes using nuclear weapons against it an act of suicide and an impossibility. 

These attacks had nothing to do with ensuring Israel’s survival or protecting it from Iran. They were the culmination of Israel’s campaign to make sure no one within the Muslim world challenges its apartheid regime or tries to stop its ethnic cleansing of the Palestinians. The only aim was to punctuate Israel’s rampages through Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria by critically weakening the only Muslim state willing to openly help the Palestinian and Lebanese people defend themselves. In doing so, Israel hoped to establish its hegemony over the entire Middle East while deliberately trying to destabilize large chunks of it at the same time. “Regime change” is, after all, merely an Orwellian term that in the post-Iraq context calls for fomenting civil war and chaos by destroying Iran’s government and leaving nothing to replace it. 

Much like their allies in the Pentagon, Israel’s military leaders simultaneously proved their tactical brilliance and strategic incompetence. They have all but guaranteed Iran will acquire nuclear weapons while unleashing a chain of events that could very easily come back to haunt them in the same way their invasion of Lebanon gave rise to Hezbollah and their attempts to fracture the Palestinians gave rise to Hamas. War always shifts societies to the right, creating space for extremists  and hardliners to thrive. Israel’s unjust war against Iran will be no different. The only difference, given Iran’s much larger size and resources, will be the amount of blowback. 

Israel’s leaders also showed, once again, that they are messianic radicals who represent an existential threat to the entire Muslim world. Though the Western media has done its best to ignore or downplay them, the evidence of apartheid Israel’s brutality and crimes is overwhelming. During its never ending assault on Gaza, Israel’s military has intentionally murdered tens of thousands of women and children by indiscriminately attacking densely populated civilian areas. Its forces frequently use thousand pound bombs to attack apartment buildings and residential neighborhoods. Its snipers and drones routinely murder children trying to flee to safety or search for food. There are also credible reports regarding the systemic use of Palestinians as human shields by Israeli forces. Most damning of all, the Israeli government has implemented a blockade that has led to widespread shortages of food, medicine, and the basic necessities of life.

Eliminating a few Iranian generals cannot mask these crimes. If anything, the latest assault against Iran is more proof Israel is a violent apartheid state with no interest in peace. Even if Israel managed to destroy the entire Axis of Resistance and topple the Iranian government, which were highly doubtful propositions, the conditions for war between it and the wider Muslim world would remain. Israel would still be a violent apartheid state ruled by baby killing sociopaths engaged in the violent repression of the Palestinians who believe sowing chaos and destruction throughout the Muslim world makes them safer. It is only a matter of time before their crimes lead to more violence. 

As such, we must critically examine why Iran fared so poorly against Israel’s assaults and what the entire Muslim world can learn from yet another stinging defeat of a Muslim state at the hands of the Western powers. 

To be fair, it is far too early to accurately gauge the true impact of these events and Iran’s ability to regroup. Adding to the difficulty is the fog of war and how information, even in the supposedly “free world” is so tightly controlled by governments. This makes accurately assessing the damage much harder. For example, Iranian missiles appear to have struck Israel’s military headquarters, however, aside from a brief report by Fox News, Western media outlets ignored this extremely important story. Nevertheless, most reports suggest Iran suffered significant damage while inflicting a minimal amount in return. The loss of so many high ranking military officers, by itself, represents a critical blow that justifies labeling it the loser. At a minimum, these developments show Iran’s strategy of establishing deterrence failed miserably. 

According to an essay published in Foreign Affairs, Iran “lost” because “its “hardliners overplayed their hand” when “they unleashed their proxies at Israeli targets” in the aftermath of its attack on Gaza. There is a lot wrong with this piece that we do not have time to explore in detail. It epitomizes the sort of biased and superficial analysis Western media outlets have always used to whitewash and normalize apartheid Israel’s crimes and mostly functions to remind us that propaganda comes in all shapes and sizes. 

Rather than discuss how Israel’s intentional targeting of civilians compelled both Hezbollah and the Houthis to get involved or how its apartheid policies and refusal to negotiate a lasting peace with the Palestinians made war inevitable, it predictably and quite erroneously paints Iran as the aggressor. However, it does adequately explain that Iran’s inability to effectively attack Israel or defend itself emboldened Israel’s leaders to escalate their violence. Iran lost, in other words, because of its weak military capabilities, particularly those related to its air forces, air defenses, and counter intelligence abilities. 

A comprehensive discussion of the historical, political, economic, social, and geographic factors that have conspired to prevent Iran from building a modern military force capable of defending its territory would take a book. As such, we will limit ourselves to the most relevant points.

As a preliminary matter, there is a plausible argument to be made that Iran lost because it hesitated and/or never fully committed to the fight. It became obvious within the first few weeks of Israel’s assault on Gaza that this war was going to be genocidally different than its previous rampages through the territory and would inevitably spread beyond Gaza. Rather than waiting and hoping for Israel’s leaders to satiate their bloodlust, they should have realized the danger they were in and launched a preemptive attack coordinated with regional allies while they were still at full strength. That may have been their only chance at overwhelming and neutralizing Israel’s air defenses during the early stages of the conflict. Which, in turn, might have been the only way to deter it from further violence. Instead, Iran’s leaders showed restraint and advised their allies to do the same. This merely allowed Israel to pick them off one by one, at a time of its choosing. This is certainly a plausible argument but not a very good one considering Israel’s arsenal of nuclear weapons and the trigger happy extremists who control it. 

Iran’s leaders were forced to show restraint, as they have had to many times before, because they knew they did not have weapons powerful enough to deter Israel should they fully expose its vulnerabilities. As such, their biggest mistake was not building a credible nuclear deterrent. North Korea shows Western nations will ostracize and sanction those nations that defy their attempts to monopolize the most destructive military technologies but they will not attack them. 

The need for such weapons should have been clear after America’s invasions of Afghanistan and Iraq and the toppling of Libya’s government. Despite these warning signs, Iran’s leaders did not act with urgency to ensure they were properly armed. Instead, they sanguinely ignored the lessons gleaned from America’s violence against the Muslim world these past 35 years or the past 500 years of world history which shows Western nations only understand the language of violence. In the modern age, speaking this language requires nuclear weapons supported by technologically advanced conventional forces.

Iran’s reluctance to build nuclear weapons was somewhat understandable given the diplomatic and economic repercussions but its military planners inexplicably neglected their conventional forces too. They opted for a defensive posture centered around a robust air defense network full of the sort of targets Israel’s air force specializes in destroying. But they failed to build or acquire the advanced fighters needed to protect them. Instead, they built an arsenal of ballistic missiles and drones, many of which were distributed to its network of regional allies. Iran’s leaders hoped their asymmetric capabilities would dissuade Israel and America from attacking them. Clearly, their hope was misplaced.

Yet another critical factor handicapping Iran’s war fighting capabilities relates to its inability to build strong alliances with other states. Militias, even ones as powerful as Hezbollah, cannot generate the resources and power of a state. As the constant flow of munitions and money from its American and European allies show, Israel is part of a powerful alliance of Western states that work together by supplying each other with military hardware, ammunition, and intelligence. 

Aside from Libya, Syria, Yemen, Lebanon and Sudan every single Arab state is ruled by dictators who rely on Western arms to sustain their regimes. As a result, most of the Arab world is ruled by men who are too weak to stand up to Israel or its American backers. Several even quietly helped Israel. Jordan actually shot down Iranian missiles and drones under the pretense of protecting its air space while allowing Israeli missiles, drones, and jets unfettered access to this same air space.

Before Assad’s fall, Syria was the only Arab state allied to Iran but after years of civil war, it did not even meet the definition of a state since it did not control all its territory. It served as a necessary logistical hub but was more of a liability than an asset in projecting force since Syria’s military under Assad was incompetent and he was a duplicitous and unreliable ally. The means used to prop up his government backfired in the same way brutality and repression always backfire, eventually leaving both Iran and Hezbollah more isolated. 

Iran has managed to develop strong alliances with Russia and China but they are not the sort of alliances that would induce either country to overtly intervene on its behalf. As a result of its lack of close allies, Iran was forced to weather the storm alone, much like Iraq before it. 

In sum, the proximate causes of Iran’s defeat relate to its inability to build or acquire the advanced weapons needed to protect itself or build strong alliances with powerful states willing to help it. Now that a ceasefire has been put in place, Iran must start to rebuild by taking the short and long term steps needed to make sure its enemies never attack it again.

Its leaders must begin by enacting deep rooted reforms to liberalize and democratize their political and legal systems. Not as some PR gimmick to appease Western audiences but with the understanding that their survival depends on it. Iran has been ruled by its clerics, otherwise known as Ayatollahs, since they overthrew the Shah and subordinated their military elite in 1979. Religion and politics is one of the most toxic combinations known to man. The two should never mix. When they come into contact, they corrupt each other in ways that are exceptionally difficult to reverse. Clerics belong in a mosque or seminary, not a command center. 

The structure of Iran’s government makes it inherently weak in a variety of ways that primarily boil down to three things. The oppression of women. The lack of democracy. The lack of freedom of expression. These are the real reasons Iran lost just as they are the reason so many parts of the Muslim world are unstable and prone to conquest. When these toxic ingredients mix, it becomes much harder to build industrialized economies of the sort needed to field competent militaries or form enduring partnerships based on trade and mutual interests with other states.

China and Russia both prove authoritarian states are capable of building modern militaries, particularly if the state invests heavily in education and industrialization. But an often overlooked aspect of their modernization efforts was the degree to which women were liberated and empowered. Iran may be able to contrive an authoritarian political system that still allows for military modernization but it will never do so without first freeing Iranian women.

There have been countless studies that prove what common sense already tells us – there is a strong correlation between gender inequality and underdevelopment. Iran’s leaders have improved educational access for many Iranian women; however, they have also spent decades repressing and marginalizing them in a variety of ways that have limited their ability to contribute to Iran’s socio-economic development and, by inference, its ability to protect itself.

As the author argued several years ago, the repression meted out to Iran’s people, especially its women, and the denial of their democratic and human rights by their own government have forced Iran to fight its enemies with “one armed tied behind its back.” The destruction visited upon it this past June demonstrates the folly of this approach and the urgent need for reforms.

Once it has taken the long overdue steps to strengthen itself internally, Iran will need to build stronger alliances with other states. Lacking suitable partners in the Arab world, it must expand and strengthen its existing alliances with China and Russia by enhancing military cooperation to rebuild and plug the gaps in its defenses. 

Iran must also work with Turkey and Pakistan to build the sort of strategic partnership that can give it the power to protect itself over the long run. The need for a Muslim security organization similar to NATO between these three nations has been clear for many years. Combined, they represent the spine of the Muslim world and, if properly connected, would possess the power to stabilize much of it. To integrate properly, they must first bind themselves via joint infrastructure and free trade agreements designed to spur the sort of economic cooperation that can form the foundation for a long lasting alliance comparable to the EU. This foundation could then form the basis for a military alliance.

The idea that Turkey and Pakistan could create an alliance with Iran may seem implausible and there are certainly significant barriers standing in the way. But the inescapable truth is that all three desperately need each other. Joining together is the only way to protect themselves from the unhinged war mongers who rule Israel and America and their policy of weakening and destabilizing any Muslim state they view as a threat. Egypt was the first domino to fall. Then came Iraq, then Libya, Syria, Yemen, and Sudan. Iran appears to have narrowly escaped a similar fate, but only for now. 

Given the sheer number of Muslim nations Israel and America have attacked, destabilized, or subjugated over the years, the pattern and the malign intentions guiding it are painfully obvious to see. Neither will ever stop attacking the Muslim world until Muslim nations develop the strength to stop them. 

Learning to protect each other will play an important part in building this strength. It is not just a matter of pan-Islamic sentiments but self-interest and preservation. Due to the many ways Israel’s and America’s destructive activities can hurt them, it is in the interest of both Pakistan and Turkey to actively oppose them.

Turkey’s recent involvement in Syria has set it on a collision course with Israel. It is therefore only a matter of time before Israel turns on Turkey too. The current trajectory of Turkey’s relationship with the West as evidenced by the degree to which it is constantly demonized in Western publications and the sanctions that limit weapons and technology transfers suggest its Western allies will do little to help it when that day comes. Many of Turkey’s people have recently begun thinking along similar lines. The Turkish government even vowed to build a fully independent defense industry to ensure it has the means to protect itself. Building an alliance with Iran and Pakistan represents one of the most important steps towards ensuring it can do so effectively.

Israel and America have also been selling advanced weapons to India for years. Many of them, such as the Israeli made Heron drone, were used against Pakistan during India’s Operation Sindoor. Whether its leaders want to admit it or not, by virtue of their arms sales to India’s fanatical rulers, America and Israel are Pakistan’s enemies. 

Rather than confront the reality of its prolific weapons sales to India and what this says about its long term designs for the Subcontinent, Pakistan’s rulers are hoping for a “strategic reset” with America. Unless this reset involves halting arms shipments to India and ending its attempts to destabilize Iran, it will not satisfy Pakistan’s long term security needs in the way that forming a military alliance with Iran and Turkey would.

The centrifugal forces Israel hopes to unleash in Iran have the potential to flood both countries with refugees while inflaming or reigniting separatists movements in each. As Tucker Carlson pointed out so brilliantly, Iran has a population of roughly 92 million people. That’s more than three times Iraq’s population and almost five times Afghanistan’s when they were invaded. The potential chaos that will ensue if Israel ever manages to destroy Iran’s government will make the anarchy that followed these invasions look like a walk in the park. Which is saying something considering America’s invasion of Afghanistan set off a civil war in Pakistan that killed 80,000 people and has yet to fully resolve itself.

If Pakistan and Turkey are to have any chance at peaceful and prosperous futures, they will need to make sure Iran’s government remains capable of holding the country together. By protecting Iran, they are protecting themselves.

Despite the glaring need and obvious benefits, these countries have not come together because, to varying degrees, Pakistan and Turkey feature the same sort of inherently weak authoritarian political and social systems that govern Iran. Their political economies are dominated by military elites and patronage networks that are incapable of building strong partnerships with each other. EU style integration requires politically influential business and industrial elites and well-run courts and administrative agencies, not generals with vast business interests. 

Of the three, Turkey has the most inclusive and open political and social systems. It is the only democracy in the Middle East but still retains serious authoritarian features that de-incentivize investment and technological innovation. Despite its authoritarian characteristics, Turkey has built a strong industrial base that has translated to an increasingly independent and advanced military industrial complex. However, it still struggles to build its most sophisticated equipment like the engines and microchips that power its famous drones. Turkey still imports 20% of its military hardware from Western arms suppliers, which severely limits its geopolitical freedom of action and ability to enter into alliances that might upset its western partners. 

Pakistan has been ruled by its generals, either directly or via a hybrid system, for most of its history. Its courts and law enforcement agencies are awful and its government is authoritarian and non-responsive to the needs of its people, particularly when it comes to providing decent public education and reliable energy. Pakistan has built a powerful military but its socio-economic and industrial foundations are rotten and in need of serious investment and reform. Rather than implement the necessary changes, its elite prefer the comfort of neo-colonial relationships and the ease of taking cheap money from their Arab benefactors and international banking institutions. 

Iran and the entire Muslim world must respond to the last two years of Israeli and American outrages by finally admitting their way of doing things is not working. They must embrace democracy, gender equality, the rule of law and freedom of expression if they ever wish to end the cycle of violence that has consumed their societies for so long. Until they do, the pattern will continue unabated. The attack against Iran is but the latest iteration of this pattern and highlights the desperate need for serious and meaningful change, not just in Tehran but across the entire Muslim world.  

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Pakistan won the battle but the war is far from over

The pause in hostilities between India and Pakistan provides a good opportunity to discuss the latest round of violence between these old foes. Over a period of several days, South Asia’s nuclear armed giants engaged in aerial dog fights involving over a hundred aircraft, large scale artillery duels, missile barrages, and swarming drone attacks. Dozens were killed on both sides of the border. Until the ceasefire, things appeared to be spiraling out of control. 

The fog of war hangs particularly thick over this conflict due to the determination of both sides to win the information war and declare victory, making it difficult to accurately assess the damage. Given the tribal nature of the modern media landscape and the way governments control the flow of information, finding reliable sources to corroborate the claims from both sides has been difficult. But preliminary reports suggest Pakistan gave India a bloody nose it will not soon forget. Aside from bringing down anywhere from 2-5 advanced Indian fighters, including at least one of its vaunted French made Rafales, Pakistan appears to have successfully attacked multiple targets along the Line of Control (LOC) as well as several Indian air bases and military sites. 

Pakistan’s tenacious response to India’s unprecedented attacks demonstrated it still has the capacity to protect itself from its much larger adversary despite the latter’s extensive efforts to modernize its military. Pakistan’s combination of tactical prowess on the battlefield, deft diplomatic maneuvering, and ability to counter India’s narrative allowed it to successfully blunt its neighbor’s aggressive  behavior.

India’s conduct, on the other hand, was characterized by incompetence and miscalculations from start to finish. India tried to build its case for war by copying Israel’s playbook. However, its attempts to portray itself as an innocent victim while ignoring its own malign activities in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa failed for two crucial reasons. One, no one wants a nuclear war. And two, the average Westerner cares about dead Hindus about as much as they care about dead Muslims. Which is to say, not at all. Aside from Israel, none of India’s friends supported its war mongering. 

Blaming Pakistan for the attack in Pahalgam without a shred of evidence could not hide the fact that its security forces, which consist of roughly 500,000 troops in Kashmir, were unable to prevent a horrific terrorist attack. There is one Indian solider in Kashmir for every 20 citizens. Despite being the most militarized state in the world, its forces have failed to impose any semblance of security in the restive territory. Of course, the nature of occupation lends itself to such failures. India’s military presence is the root of the problem so even a million crack troops could not have prevented such an attack. In fact, the more troops India pours into Kashmir, the more likely it is to experience similar violence. It is a universal truth that repression always leads to resistance. But India’s leaders refuse to acknowledge this simple fact, which merely reinforces the argument they are grossly and hopelessly incompetent. 

Their misrule and heavy handed tactics, which involve the use of arbitrary arrests, torture, extra-judicial murder, systematic rape, and even demolishing the family homes of those suspected of resisting their occupation have created the perfect conditions for violence. The decision to change the status quo in Kashmir in 2019 only made things worse but no matter how much death and despair their policies cause, India’s leaders refuse to change course. Instead of admitting the self-evident truths that most Kashmiris have no desire to remain a part of India and that a true democracy would allow them to vote on their fates, they believe repression and violence will somehow lead to peace and stability. 

Sadly, their incoherent ideas and policies are not limited to Kashmir. They also openly discuss dismembering Pakistan as part of their dream of establishing Hindu hegemony over the entire Subcontinent. They even built a map of a united Subcontinent into their new parliament building to symbolize this dream. In the words of one analyst, India’s leaders are beholden to “a Hindu nationalist agenda, which has for decades projected itself as militaristic, masculine and modelled on European fascist movements” and “seeks to mark Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir as its territory.” In other words, India is ruled by fanatical extremists who have no interest in peace, making them both incompetent and dangerous. 

These traits were on full display with the ill-conceived and poorly executed “Operation Sindoor” which consisted of launching missiles from aircraft loitering in Indian airspace at targets in Pakistan described as “terrorist infrastructure.” They turned out to be mostly mosques and seminaries associated with people who may have fought in Kashmir decades ago. In yet another sign of Israel’s growing influence, India murdered innocent women and children as they slept in their homes because they were related to its enemies

But their missile attack was not the end of their aggression. Likely stinging from the loss of their aircraft, India’s leaders appear to have made an emotionally charged decision to expand their operation. The next morning, they sent swarms of drones into Pakistan to try and destroy its air defense network. The inference that this was an impromptu decision is based on the fact that one typically attacks an enemy’s air defenses before launching an air attack, not after. Regardless, the great majority of India’s Israeli made drones were promptly shot down – which is no easy feat and speaks to a well designed and multi-layered air defense network operating at a high level. 

Pakistan responded to India’s aggression by attacking the air bases and facilities used to launch and arm the offending aircraft as well as the air defenses used to protect them. Again, it is difficult to accurately gauge the extent of the damage but considering the speed with which India sought America’s help to obtain a ceasefire and the manner in which this contradicts its long standing policy of treating Kashmir as a purely bilateral issue, it is reasonable to assume the damage was significant and extensive. The language emanating from the White House regarding multilateral peace talks, which has always been anathema to India’s leaders, supports this same inference since India presumably agreed to such measures in order to secure the ceasefire. 

In sum, the incompetence of India’s leaders created the conditions that led to the Pahalgam terrorist attack and it led to the implementation of a poorly conceived plan to attack its nuclear armed neighbor. India’s military planners relied on dated intelligence and ended up killing innocent women and children for no military gain whatsoever, all to score political points with the BJP’s rabid base. 

Despite taking South Asia to the brink of nuclear annihilation for political gain, India’s Prime Minister Modi has not changed his tune. He has already threatened to attack Pakistan again should his brutish policies lead to more violence in Kashmir. His rhetoric should not be taken lightly, particularly when viewed within the context of last week’s violence, the “surgical strikes” he launched in 2016 and the Balakot incident from 2019. This pattern is consistent with arguments the author has made repeatedly over the years that India will only grow more aggressive and unhinged as its arsenal fills with advanced Western weapons. 

France’s Rafales may have dominated the headlines, but India’s most important partners are America and Israel. Both nations have sold it billions in advanced weaponry and will continue to do so over the next few years, adding more fuel to the fire. Without these weapons and support, India would never have initiated such an aggressive operation against Pakistan. As such, each bears responsibility for the mayhem caused by India’s reckless behavior.

America may have played the part of peacemaker this time, but make no mistake – it is no friend to Pakistan. The indifference displayed by America’s leaders during the early stages of India’s attack was most likely because they did not care that India was attacking Pakistan even though there was a significant probability of inflicting heavy damage and casualties. It was not until Pakistan parried India’s attack and then responded with its own that they became interested in peace. 

As the carnage and genocidal massacres inflicted upon Gaza show, America is perfectly capable of enabling its allies to commit extreme levels of violence. And India is clearly taking notes from its messianic friends in Israel, which suggests its forces will not hesitate to commit similar atrocities if given the opportunity.  

Adding to the danger and the theme of ideologically induced incompetence – India’s leaders have maintained their suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty while taking steps towards developing the ability to divert the waters that feed into Pakistan. As Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif accurately noted, this constitutes an “act of war” that will inevitably force Pakistan into an impossible situation. 

Between India’s plans to cut off Pakistan’s water supplies and Mr. Modi’s threats, it is safe to say this fight is far from over. Pakistan may have won this round but it must immediately begin preparing for the next one. Aside from making short term adjustments to recalibrate its target lists, firing solutions, and air defenses to prevent the further penetration of Indian missiles, it must also take the long term steps needed to guarantee its freedom and prosperity in the face of India’s growing power. 

With respect to the former goal, the next time India shows signs of preparing to attack Pakistan, one might suggest looking to Israel’s playbook from 1967 which shows it is far easier to win an air war when the enemy’s planes are still on the ground. The problem is that in the space age, achieving the necessary degree of surprise would likely require advanced cyber warfare  and anti-satellite capabilities to disable the enemy’s command, control, and communications nodes as well as the ability to deliver powerful munitions with pinpoint accuracy from a great distance across dozens of air bases and it is unlikely Pakistan, by itself, possesses all these capabilities. As a more feasible alternative, it may behoove Pakistan to change its rules of engagement so that its fighters are authorized to launch their missiles before India’s jets can release their payloads, instead of adopting a purely defensive posture. 

With respect to the latter goal, the author has already made numerous arguments regarding the desperate need to implement political and social reforms designed to ensure Pakistan can defend itself over the long run. So we will not touch on these again except to say Pakistan’s leaders must not allow this victory to lull themselves into a false sense of security. 

Despite the successes of the past week, India still represents an existential threat to the safety and prosperity of all Pakistanis. One bloody nose will not be enough to dissuade it from its current path of militarism. Even if India’s leaders wanted to change course, the jingoistic right wing media echo chamber they have created will never allow them to do so. 

The threat of Indian aggression will remain so long as its forces occupy Kashmir and its leaders hold delusional fantasies about establishing Indian hegemony over the entire Subcontinent. India’s leaders have proven they are simply too fanatical and arrogant to works towards a realistic political solution that can bring peace to the Subcontinent. Pakistan must prepare accordingly.

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White America’s defense of apartheid Israel is indefensible

This essay was first published here on Nov. 11, 2024 by the Arab American News.

As the controversial exchange between Tony Dokoupil and Ta-Nehisi Coates illustrated, there is a deep disconnect between how many white people view Israel versus how people of color view it. According to a poll conducted by NPR and PBS, 72% of white people support Israel versus 51% of non-whites while another poll conducted by the Pew Research Center shows 68% of white evangelicals support it. This suggests they either do not care or do not believe Israel is an apartheid state.

Despite white America’s refusal to admit it, the evidence Israel is a brutal apartheid state is overwhelming and irrefutable. It is not a matter upon which reasonable minds can differ, but an immutable truth.

The term apartheid was first used to describe South Africa’s political system, which was designed to disenfranchise the country’s black majority. It has since evolved into a shorthand term to describe any political system designed to oppress and marginalize people based on their race, ethnicity, or religion. Based on this definition, several human rights organizations like Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and B’Tselem have described Israel as an apartheid state. Israel’s former attorney general, Michael Ben-Yair, agreed, saying “I must also conclude that my country has sunk to such political and moral depths that it is now an apartheid regime.” Tamir Pardo, the former head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence agency, put it best when he explained, “in a territory where two people are judged under two legal systems, that is an apartheid state.”

Mr. Pardo’s description succinctly gets to the heart of the issue. Israel is the de facto political and military authority over the West Bank and the 2.8 million Palestinians who live there. These people have been forced to live under Israeli military law for nearly six decades while the roughly 450,000 Jewish settlers living among them are governed under an Israeli civil code that gives them greater rights and due process protections. Israel is an apartheid state by virtue of the different set of laws governing Jews and Palestinians in the West Bank. To suggest otherwise would be like denying segregation existed in America because it was officially limited to the South. It is a nonsensical argument grounded in racist delusions, not facts.

As Mr. Coates explained, apartheid systems are inherently evil regardless of the context that led to their creation. As such, white America’s defense of apartheid Israel is indefensible. It is largely based on implicitly racist perspectives that show America learned very little from its own dark history of racial injustice.

Bigoted notions of white supremacy have been a feature of the American ethos for centuries. They were enshrined in America’s founding documents and played an integral part in justifying the Atlantic slave trade, the genocide perpetrated against Native Americans, the abuse of Chinese laborers and the Jim Crow era. The only difference between the supposedly enlightened America of today and the overtly racist America of the past is the degree of gaslighting and deflection that now permeates the conversation. Whereas white people were once open about their racist contempt for non-whites, today they simply deny the truth or use ridiculous labels like “woke” or “terrorist sympathizer” to stifle meaningful conversations about their racist actions.

While condemning America’s enduring racism is certainly worthwhile, it is more important to recognize how these values drive violence towards Arabs and Muslims. As Sam Huntington famously argued in his work about the clash of civilizations, the world’s geopolitical tensions are largely tribal in nature. The bigotry and xenophobia that allows so many Americans to ignore or support apartheid Israel’s crimes against the Palestinians are merely a reflection of this tribalism since America and Israel are part of the same Western bloc. These dynamics have shaped America’s hegemonic and violent policies towards Palestine and the Muslim world for decades.

Over the years, America has given a nation that is very close to Nazi Germany on the ideological spectrum $260 billion, which it used to build one of the most powerful militaries in the world. Thanks to this aid, Israel boasts a fleet of deadly tanks, stealth fighters, and drones as well as advanced cyber warfare and intelligence capabilities. As Israeli government minister Amihai Eliyahu admitted when he suggested using one against Gaza’s defenseless people, it also possesses a formidable arsenal of nuclear weapons.

America’s leaders are so blinded by racism and hubris, they believe giving Israel the means to slaughter nearly 17,000 Palestinian children and threaten its neighbors with annihilation will cement its place among them. Nothing could be further from the truth. By empowering it to commit such horrific crimes, America has only made Israel less secure by destroying any chance for genuine peace with the Palestinians or the wider Muslim world.

The push to create a homeland for Jews by conquering Palestine and subjugating its people was an incredibly short-sighted idea born of desperation. It essentially forced Jews out of the fire and into the frying pan by creating the conditions for perpetual war between them and the Muslim world. As the famous Zionist slogan, “a land without a people, for a people without a land” shows by the way it so brazenly erases the very existence of the Palestinians, it was also rooted in blatantly racist values. Instead of forcing Germany to pay for its crimes by carving one of its states out as a homeland for Jews after WW2, the West collectively decided to force Palestinians to pay for its sins. Due to the illogical and immoral perspectives that led to its creation, Israel’s path towards a long and prosperous future in the Muslim world was always tenuous.

Israel’s leaders responded to their precarious position by pursuing a strategy of maintaining total military dominance over the Palestinians and their Muslim neighbors. Buoyed by their destruction of Gaza and decapitation of Hezbollah, they probably believe their strategy is working. But that only proves the depths of their delusions.

Aside from showing Israel is ruled by barbaric sociopaths, the past year has also proven the limits of this strategy by highlighting Israel’s long-term vulnerabilities should it ever need to stand on its own. Even after spending decades arming it to the teeth, America has been forced to provide its ally near daily shipments of ammunition, almost $18 billion in emergency funding, and naval and air defense assets to augment its missile defense systems. All of which shows, without America’s support, Israel’s strategy is doomed to fail.

Though it may be hard to envision today, America’s days of protecting Israel are slowly coming to an end. Its debt currently sits at $35 trillion and is expected to grow to $54 trillion in just ten years. The interest payments required to service it consumed a trillion dollars this year alone and are already the second largest line item in the US government’s budget. Like many empires before it, America has overstretched itself, which means retrenchment is inevitable. When that day comes, Israel will be alone among those it has spent decades abusing.

White America’s support for apartheid Israel is indefensible not just because it is morally repugnant but because it is counter to Israel’s long-term interests. To put things in historical terms, the last time Europeans took control of the Holy Land, they held it for almost 200 years. Eventually, the egregious nature of their crimes united their Muslim neighbors against them, leading to their expulsion. Modern day Israel is only 75 years old but, as the growing cooperation between the previously estranged people of Palestine, Lebanon, Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and Iran shows, the vile nature of its actions has already set similar forces in motion. The only way to prevent history from repeating itself is by dismantling the apartheid state built to rule the Palestinians. Until Palestinians can live in peace and dignity, Israel will remain in a state of intermittent war with not just the Palestinians, but those within the wider Muslim world justifiably compelled to help them. Even if it takes another 200 years, it is only a matter of time before it loses one of these wars.  

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On unity and bringing Pakistan, Iran, and the Muslim world together

This essay was first published here by the Friday Times on Sept. 15, 2024.

Shortly before his death, Iran’s late President Raisi spent several days visiting Pakistan. Like many state visits between Pakistani and Iranian officials over the years, his trip was filled with grand proclamations about the affinity between both nations and the need to improve ties. Both sides agreed to boost trade to $10 billion within 5 years. They also agreed to work together to bring peace and prosperity to Afghanistan and jointly condemned Israel’s massacre in Gaza.

These were all worthwhile developments the author has advocated for many times, in a variety of contexts. The need to build an alliance between Iran and Pakistan has been obvious for a long time. They are natural allies with overlapping interests and ideological perspectives. An alliance would drastically improve each nation’s geopolitical and economic positions, giving them the tools to deal with a chaotic world.

Despite their lofty rhetoric and the potential benefits, Pakistani and Iranian leaders have yet to deliver on their promises. As Jahangir Jameel recently explained, cross border trade still suffers from a “staggering number of restrictions, hurdles, and hindrances.” As usual, little meaningful progress has been made.

It is therefore time to consider ways to turn these aspirations into reality by discussing steps each nation can take to finally make good on the promise of building a closer relationship. Creating a strong alliance between them will require a multi-pronged approach that binds them in as many ways as possible. A true alliance, one strong enough to compel Pakistan to stand up to America on behalf of Iran or for Iran to stand up to India on behalf of Pakistan, requires developing multiple overlapping interests to form a deep bond between them. Cooperation must extend to the social, cultural, political, commercial, scientific, academic, and military spheres.

The most logical way to start is by building people-to-people ties with a view towards increasing tourism and travel between both nations. Most of the efforts thus far have emphasized government to government cooperation, which is important but also puts the proverbial cart in front of the horse. Bringing people together is the first and most important step to bringing nations together.

To that end, creating trade, civil, cultural, and professional organizations comprised of Iranian and Pakistani engineers, artists, miners, teachers, law enforcement officers, lawyers, poets, scholars, scientists, military officers, politicians, journalists, businessmen, etc. will be extremely important. The think tanks, universities, and research institutes of both nations must also be connected via exchange programs and frequent symposiums and conferences. Essentially, Pakistani and Iranian people from all walks of life must find ways to converse and get to know each other and make as many excuses to travel to each other’s countries as possible. Poetry recitals, festivals, trade shows, academic competitions between students, scholarly conferences on any and every topic under the sun. Any excuse will do.

Yet another way to accomplish this goal is by building sports leagues featuring teams from both countries and holding tournaments and competitions in as many different sports as possible on a regular basis. A semi-annual soccer match between their national teams would be a great place to start but any sport will work. Rugby, martial arts, Olympic sports, etc. The more events and reasons to travel, the better.

Ideally, this exchange of people and ideas and the connections they create will lead to increased trade, which is also of vital importance. To facilitate trade, both nations will need to take several steps. As a starting point, their governments must harmonize their import and export policies to create a common market between them while removing barriers to trade like tariffs and inconsistent regulations. They must also improve the rail, air, and road connections that link them, build financial networks that are insulated from American sanctions, and make it easy for their businesses to invest in and access each other’s markets while providing neutral and efficient dispute resolution mechanisms to protect their investments.

Creating joint ventures to stimulate and improve their manufacturing and technological abilities would also be wise. Both nations would benefit greatly from building semiconductor foundries, investing in renewable energy, factories that make heavy goods like mining and construction equipment, and modernizing and protecting their agricultural sectors from climate change. Sharing the costs associated with these capital intensive investments and pooling their expertise would help reduce the burden on each nation while creating a common market between them would allow for economies of scale that would increase the profitability of these ventures.

Commercial, cultural, ideological, intellectual, and personal connections are the bedrock upon which strong alliances are built. Once they have been established, government to government connections and political cooperation will naturally follow since the perspectives and interests of their people and elites will be more aligned. France and Germany were once implacable foes who fought several wars against each other. Today, they do $120 billion in trade, coordinate policies in a variety of areas, and are the closest of allies. Their alliance began as a customs union to sell coal and grew into the European Union (EU). Pakistan and Iran have the same, if not more, potential. But they must invest in each other and work together to achieve it.

They must also develop strong military ties. That will require expanding the scale and frequency with which they conduct joint training exercises and increased staff level exchanges and interactions. These exercises should include as many different assets as possible and involve large formations to enhance their ability to work together in a variety of scenarios. Eventually, a formal military alliance that leads to joint weapons production, linking their air defense networks, ensuring interoperability between equipment and ammunition, and deep intelligence cooperation will also be necessary. Just as the Western world’s nations work to protect each other via organizations like NATO and the Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance, Pakistan and Iran must do the same following the same blueprint.

They must also coordinate their policies on areas of overlapping interests, like dealing with Afghanistan and its duplicitous rulers, who appear to have learned nothing from their long time in exile. At considerable risk to itself, Pakistan helped the Taliban win their freedom from America just as it helped their fathers defeat the Soviets. Instead of responding with gratitude, the Taliban have quietly reverted to form by allowing their nation to be used as a base to attack their former allies.

Their treachery is rooted in their desire to create a “greater Pashtunistan” by combining Afghanistan with Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. While their designs pose a more immediate threat to Pakistan, they also present a great danger to Iran over the long run since chaos in Pakistan will naturally spill into Iran. More importantly, the Taliban will quickly remember their hatred for Iran’s Shiites once they are done dismembering Pakistan. As such, it is in Iran’s strategic interests to work with Pakistan to counter the Taliban.

The withdrawal of American forces was an important step towards stabilizing Afghanistan, but the next step is helping it build a government that contributes to regional peace instead of destroying it. Pakistan and Iran have the most to gain from ensuring the Taliban take this step and they have the most to lose if it does not. Pakistan has historically been the primary conduit for goods shipped to Afghanistan; however, its attempts to use this as leverage to convince the Taliban to behave have been undermined by their ability to import goods via Iran’s Chabahar Port. It is only by working together and coordinating their policies that either nation has any chance at moderating the Taliban’s destructive behavior.

Despite the urgent need, these nations have not come together due to the many obstacles between them. Pakistan’s dependence on the Arabs to absorb its excess labor and provide financial subsidies is one factor holding its leaders back. As a preliminary matter, it should be noted that close relationships with Iran and the Arab world need not be mutually exclusive. If Saudi Arabia and the UAE can invest billions in India, Pakistan can build ties with Iran.

However, if Pakistan is forced to pick, the choice is obvious. For all their wealth, the Arabs are not the allies Pakistan needs. Aside from money, they offer nothing of value. They have no technical skills, universities, research institutes, or military attributes that can help Pakistan. They can only provide a crutch that keeps it perpetually hobbled and weak. While their generosity is appreciated, it will never satisfy Pakistan’s massive development and socio-economic needs. The only way to do that is to build an economy that thrives on trade, not handouts. Iran is a far better candidate to help in this regard than the Arabs.

Pakistan’s fear of America is an even bigger factor keeping these neighbors apart. The reluctance to defy America is understandable. It has the power of an 800-pound gorilla, the morals of a flea, and a history of attacking or sabotaging those who refuse to obey it. But the truth is America is already Pakistan’s enemy. It has been since 2008 when it formally committed itself to strengthening India’s nuclear capabilities. Over the years it has also sold it weapons worth $20 billion and US Senator Marco Rubio recently introduced legislation that would elevate India to the same status as a NATO ally to facilitate the sale of even more advanced weapons. This bill also calls for monitoring “Pakistan’s use of offensive force, including through terrorism and proxy groups, against India” and barring it “from receiving security assistance if it is found to have sponsored terrorism against India.” Whether Pakistan’s rulers want to admit it or not, America is a serious threat to their long-term safety and prosperity. It is intent on arming India’s fanatical government to the teeth and has no regard for the danger this poses to Pakistan.

As its decades long military presence in the Middle East shows, America is not just a threat to Pakistan, but the entire Muslim world. The nearly 17,000 Palestinian children it helped apartheid Israel murder after Oct. 7th are but the latest in a long line of victims forced to suffer for its imperial ambitions. Its unequivocal support for the massacre in Gaza and refusal to withdraw its military from the region show it learned nothing from the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan or the excesses of its supposed “War on Terror.” This suggests it is perfectly capable of making similar mistakes vis-à-vis Iran.

Just as the Taliban’s designs on Pakistan represent a long-term threat to Iran, America’s military posture in the Middle East, particularly its aggression towards Iran, represents a long-term threat to Pakistan. The invasion of Iraq killed or displaced millions, plunging much of the Middle East into chaos. If America initiates large scale violence that destabilizes Iran, which has a significantly larger population than Iraq, the impact on Pakistan will be devastating. As the increased insurgent activity in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa shows, Pakistan is still dealing with the consequences of America’s actions in Afghanistan. The fallout from similar violence against Iran will be far more consequential. As such, it is in Pakistan’s long term strategic interests to protect Iran from America’s aggression.

Due to the many ways America’s malign activities threaten Pakistan’s long-term security, it should not be viewed as a barrier to closer ties with Iran but as motivation to develop them. Instead of trying to placate America’s hegemonic demands, Pakistan’s leaders must build the strength to protect themselves from its destructive and unhinged behavior. As the author has already warned, if they do not, it is very possible Lahore’s children suffer the same fate as Gaza’s one day.

Though it would be convenient to place all the blame on them, neither the Arabs nor America are the greatest obstacles to unity between Pakistan and Iran. That distinction belongs to the Iranian and Pakistani governments themselves. Each nation is governed by repressive, authoritarian political systems that are simply incapable of creating an environment conducive to promoting technological or economic development of the sort needed to spur large scale, export-based trade. Due to its oil wealth and greater investments in education and infrastructure, Iran is more advanced than Pakistan, which is exceptionally backwards and inefficient. But both suffer from similar structural deficiencies and weaknesses. For example, each has military elites that dominate their economies and wield a disproportionate amount of political power behind the scenes.

As Europe’s example shows, liberal democratic rule supported by a politically powerful merchant class are vital pre-conditions to EU type integration. Without these attributes, creating the mechanisms and institutions that can bring these neighbors together will be impossible. Consequently, developing a strong, trade-based relationship requires each nation empower their merchants and embrace democracy, freedom of expression, and the rule of law. 

The steps discussed above would also work to integrate additional Muslim states. Turkey, for example, would be a valuable addition to the alliance contemplated herein. Turkish President Erdogan’s recent statements regarding the need for an alliance between Muslims suggests Turkey would be receptive to such a venture. However, political and economic realities require Pakistan and Iran first lay a foundation that can lead to including Turkey since the benefits required to induce it to abandon the Western alliance must outweigh the risks. Providing the necessary inducements will only be possible once Iran and Pakistan pave the way. It is oddly fitting then that Shiite Iran and Sunni Pakistan are the key to uniting and revitalizing the Muslim world. If they can overcome their doctrinal, ethnic, and linguistic differences by focusing on their shared Islamic identities, they have a chance at finally ending the cycle of violence and instability that has gripped Muslim societies for centuries.

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On insurrections and counter insurgency

This piece was first published here, by the Friday Times on Aug. 28, 2024.

Pakistan is currently dealing with complicated insurgencies in two of its provinces. One is primarily being waged by the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) while the other is being waged by an assortment of Baloch ethno-nationalist groups in Balochistan. These developments have rekindled a debate that has flummoxed military strategists throughout the modern era regarding how to implement an effective counter insurgency (COIN) strategy. Doing so requires developing a multi-pronged approach that combines military, intelligence, and law enforcement operations with political and socio-economic policies to form a cohesive strategy while simultaneously challenging the ideology or raison d’etre of the insurgents. To restore peace in its restive provinces, Pakistan’s leaders must use these different prongs together in a mutually reinforcing way to address the many factors fueling these conflicts.

Balancing them properly requires understanding the nature of the fight Pakistan is facing. There are two basic kinds of insurgencies. The first involves guerillas fighting against a foreign military force occupying their land. This is the kind of conflict America faced in Vietnam, Iraq, and Afghanistan. Though the occupying power may consider the problems of maintaining its occupation complicated, in truth such conflicts are easily resolved by ending the illegal occupations causing them and sending the unwanted foreign forces home.

Pakistan is dealing with the second kind, which involves citizens rebelling against their own state. These are infinitely more complicated. All wars are political, but some are more political than others. Domestic insurgencies are perhaps the most political because they involve disputes as to the nature and legitimacy of the political institutions that govern a particular territory between the people meant to share it. They also touch on difficult issues regarding the power of the state to take the lives of its citizens and the extent to which it must comply with due process norms when doing so.

The power to kill represents the ultimate exercise of political authority. Normally, a state is only justified in using this power against those who have been found guilty of a grave crime after they have been given a fair and transparent trial. Most would probably agree that insurrection should be punishable by death, but this depends on the nature of the state and the reason its citizens are rebelling. Not all states are just or legitimate and despite the ubiquitous use of the term, not all insurgents are “terrorists[1].”

For example, Palestinian and Kashmiri insurgents are fighting to be free of repressive states they were never meant to be a part of that have violently disenfranchised them. Compounding the problem, India and Israel have refused to implement political processes to address their grievances. As such, they have every right[2] to take up arms against those who are oppressing and abusing them. So long as they do so within the bounds of civilized society, meaning they limit their attacks to security forces, their actions are not criminal or immoral.

With these general ideas in mind, the rest of this discussion will focus on the role of security forces, political and socio-economic policies, and the need to counter the ideology of insurgents. 

MILITARY, LAW ENFORCEMENT AND INTELLIGENCE OPERATIONS

The most important point to emphasize with respect to the use of the state’s security forces is that, due to the inherently political nature of domestic insurgencies, they have the smallest part to play. Though force will certainly be required at times, the less it is used, the better. Violence tends to exacerbate the underlying causes of such conflicts, not resolve them.

The improper or excessive use of force is counterproductive because the key to defeating an insurgency is cutting it off and alienating it from the population it needs to hide and thrive. An effective COIN strategy will therefore be one that does not place an undue emphasis on military operations or heavy-handed police tactics. Regretfully, the Pakistani government has a history of relying on such tactics. It is believed to have disappeared over 5,000 people in Balochistan alone.

Pakistan’s leaders must understand that human rights abuses, disappearances, staged executions, and similar conduct are immoral and do infinitely more harm than good, which is not a coincidence. They only serve to agitate the population and strengthen the cause of those rebelling against the state. When security personnel act outside the law, they undermine the very institutions they are fighting to protect. Such conduct must never be tolerated and those guilty of abusing the citizenry must be held accountable.

When citizens are merely suspected of being involved in insurrection or have surrendered to security forces, the government must always use the legal system to punish them in a transparent and fair manner. Punishments, especially for capital offenses, must be based on concrete and tangible evidence, not suspicion or circumstance.

Similarly, military operations resulting in civilian casualties, widespread destruction, or the displacement of civilian populations, even if unintentional, will only swell the ranks of insurgents while creating sympathy and space for them to operate. When the state uses force against its own citizens it is imperative it does not abuse their legal or human rights and that it takes great care to avoid civilian casualties in those instances when violence is necessary.

The tendency of most military strategists, especially those with a background in conventional warfare, is to favor kinetic operations to achieve a military victory that is typically measured by counting bodies. Their obsession with tactical victories blinds them to the strategic defeat they inflict upon themselves whenever their bombs kill an innocent human being, or as some prefer to describe it, cause “collateral damage[3].”

Aside from being counterproductive if not properly employed, the use of force will not lead to victory for Pakistan because of geography. Due to the ability of groups like the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and TTP to hide in Iran and Afghanistan, Pakistan faces an operational environment like those America faced in Vietnam and Afghanistan. Despite its tactical dominance and superior firepower, it was unable to impose its political will in either of these wars, in part, because it faced insurgents who were able to find sanctuary in neighboring countries. This allowed them to re-group and re-supply in relative safety.

America’s experiences show no amount of firepower can defeat the laws of geography. The long duration of the conflict in Balochistan, which has seen insurgents hiding across international boundaries for decades, and the ability of the TTP to reconstitute itself in Afghanistan after being routed by the Pakistani military is further evidence geography makes a purely military victory impossible.

Although military and law enforcement operations will not, by themselves, lead to victory, they still have an important part to play. Many military strategists believe to win a war one must destroy the enemy’s will and capacity to fight but confuse and conflate the two. Israeli military officers, for example, mistakenly believe destroying the enemy’s will to fight means killing so many people and wreaking so much havoc the enemy is consumed with despair and loses the will to keep fighting. This is a gross misunderstanding of the term.

Neither oppression, murder nor mayhem destroy the enemy’s will to fight. In fact, when directed towards civilians, such actions are more likely to fuel the enemy’s determination. Destroying an enemy’s will to fight is best thought of as resolving the underlying political dispute driving the conflict. It refers to the political dynamics of war. Killing enemy troops, destroying their weapons or their ability to communicate and coordinate with each other, on the other hand, destroys the capacity to fight. This is the domain of violence.

In a conventional war between states, destroying the enemy’s capacity to fight will usually settle the matter, at least in the short term. Egypt’s former ruler Gamal Nasser, for example, may have had the will to fight after the Israeli military destroyed nearly his entire air force, but he no longer had the capacity. Thus ended the Six Day War. Saddam Hussein was equally willing to fight America to hold onto Kuwait, but his military did not have the capacity to do so effectively. 

In an insurgency, destroying the will to fight matters most since these are primarily political affairs. Insurgents, by definition, are lightly armed and often blend into the general population to hide and plan attacks. Destroying their capacity to launch hit and run attacks is exceptionally difficult, particularly when they have bases outside the conflict zone or the benefit of rough and expansive terrain in which to hide. Pakistan’s insurgents enjoy both advantages.

Consequently, the primary role of Pakistan’s security forces will be preventing attacks and maintaining law and order. It is a mostly defensive posture; however, when the rare opportunity to go on the offensive presents itself, it must be seized, despite the difficulties.

These operations must be carried out with extreme precision to avoid any civilian casualties. This will entail relying primarily on intelligence and law enforcement personnel with extensive knowledge of the terrain and enemy paired with well-trained infantry and special operations troops to seek them out in their safe havens, disrupt their finances, and their ability to arm themselves. To do so effectively, Pakistan’s security forces will need to develop strong signals and human intelligence capabilities to locate and attack targets. Timely and accurate intelligence is one of the most important assets in a counter insurgency environment. Without it, wielding force with the precision needed to disrupt the enemy while avoiding civilian casualties becomes impossible.

Instead of following America’s example by relying on drones to attack remote targets, Pakistan will need to rely on mobile infantry as the use of long-range munitions like missiles, rockets, and artillery must be avoided at all costs if civilians are nearby. This also means the use of airpower must be limited to reconnaissance, intelligence gathering, and rapidly deploying troops.

Due to the refusal of Afghanistan’s rulers to reign in the TTP, safe havens and supply depots across the border should be considered fair game but must be attacked with the same emphasis on protecting civilians and precision. Similar attacks on Iranian territory; however, would do more harm than good since they would damage Pakistan’s relationship with a nation it must court as an ally. The author has already discussed the best way to ensure Iran is not used as a base to attack Pakistan here.  

The military and security prongs of Pakistan’s COIN strategy are best thought of as short-term solutions to be employed against those extremists who cannot be reasoned with while the more important job of implementing long term political and socio-economic policies meant to destroy their will to fight and deprive them of their support among the populace is carried out. They must be used sparingly but with ruthless efficiency and, when circumstances allow, in accordance with due process norms.  

POLITICAL SOLUTIONS AND SOCIO-ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT

At their root, insurgencies involve people taking up arms against their own governments due to the perceived injustices committed by that government or its lack of legitimacy and competency. Insurgencies are almost always a reaction to bad or unresponsive governance. As such, the fact that two of Pakistan’s provinces are currently dealing with one is an indictment of its incompetent political institutions. Their inability to diffuse tensions before they turn violent or deliver vital public services has created a toxic environment that has allowed chaos to thrive[4].

Though there are many similarities between them, the underlying political dynamics driving the conflicts in Balochistan and KP differ in important ways. Balochistan has been an integral part of Pakistan since the beginning; however, it has always suffered from neglect, abuse, and discrimination. As Nazir Ahmad and Muneeb Yousuf explained for Al Jazeera earlier this year, Pakistan’s leaders have spent years abusing its people and then demonizing or dismissing them when they demand accountability. The rebellion consuming it is best viewed as primarily a reaction to this abuse and neglect.

The rebellion being waged by the TTP has different origins since the tribal areas that are the epicenter of its revolt have historically governed themselves and were only recently integrated into Pakistan. The TTP’s fighters are waging war to maintain the independence their tribes have enjoyed for centuries but have also stated their desire to ensure all of Pakistan is governed according to their strict interpretation of Islamic law. As such, the situation in KP is more intractable due to the fundamentally irreconcilable differences driving the Pakistani state’s confrontation with the TTP.

Whereas ending the conflict in Balochistan requires improving and reforming the political institutions that govern it, ending the rebellion in the former tribal areas requires building many of them from the ground up while fully integrating these territories with the rest of Pakistan. Despite their differences, each conflict boils down to issues of governance that would greatly benefit from finally providing the sort of good governance and public services all governments are supposed to provide their people. Taking this simple step would destroy the will of most of Balochistan’s insurgents to fight by resolving the underlying political and socio-economic issues driving them to violence. Destroying the will of the TTP’s extremists to fight may be impossible due to their illogical demands but depriving them of support among the general population by building a competent government that provides the vital public services people need to thrive in the modern age would still deal it a fatal blow.    

Pakistan’s leaders must focus on three broad categories of political policies and public services. The first relates to ensuring political institutions are inclusive and responsive to the needs of the people. Much of Pakistan’s legal and bureaucratic system was inherited from the British and designed to assert their control over its people. Its current rulers have maintained many of these repressive legal mechanisms to assert their own power. These antiquated laws must be abolished and replaced with those written and enforced by the people they are meant to govern.

In fact, Pakistan’s entire system must be re-designed from top to bottom to empower its provincial and national legislative bodies. As Machiavelli noted centuries ago, these institutions are the key to a well-run state. They must be designed to represent a wide range of political opinions and interest groups and given primary control of the state’s finances as well as meaningful oversight over its various agencies and departments. The ability to use money to influence their deliberations and policies must be strictly prohibited. Half of their seats must be reserved for women and minority groups must be guaranteed seats according to their proportion of the population. Finally, elections to choose their members must be free, fair, held regularly, and offer people legitimate choices about who should rule them while imposing term limits on the number of times they can hold office. These checks are necessary to ensure legislatures remain beholden to the people instead of the monied interests that have a habit of taking control of them.  

Citizens and the civic organizations and associations they create must be free to meet, organize, express themselves, and lobby for their preferred policies without interference. All Pakistani citizens must be able to participate freely in the political systems that govern them and express non-violent opinions without restriction. Empowering people to order their own lives and express themselves are vital parts of creating a political environment conducive to the peaceful expression of ideas which is a critical step in making sure grievances against the state do not lead to violence. The more the government chokes off political speech or represses organizations like the Pashtun Tahafuz Movement, the more space it creates for violence.

The second set of policies relates to maintaining law and order by protecting citizens from each other, fairly settling disputes between them and preventing government excess, abuse, and corruption. This requires creating honest and effective judicial, law enforcement, and regulatory agencies that can maintain the rule of law and extend the writ of the government to all corners of the country.

Without the rule of law, the prosperity and well-being of the entire society declines. Criminality and chaos reign, commerce retracts, and businesses stop investing. This allows insurgencies to thrive in a variety of ways.

Many of the insurgent groups fighting Pakistan have already tapped into its black market and lawless environment to arm themselves and generate revenue from drugs, smuggling, kidnapping, and protection rackets. The TTP even has shadow governments in at least seven districts to settle disputes and impose governance on the locals. Like a virus, they will only grow and spread until Pakistan’s government builds competent law enforcement and judicial agencies capable of stopping them.

The third set of policies relate to providing for socio-economic development. In the age of the administrative state, governments play a pivotal and multi-faceted role in this arena. Deciding how to invest public funds to spur socio-economic growth touches on the age-old question of whether it is better to teach someone to fish or just give them the fish. A lot of politicians prefer to give the fish away in the form of subsidies, tax breaks, plum contracts, and welfare since these handouts sustain their power. The wiser course is to use public funds to teach people how to fish.

One of the most important ways to do that is by finally building a modern education system that gives Pakistanis the critical thinking, technical, and problem-solving skills required to thrive in the digital age. Pakistan currently spends less than 2% of its GDP on education and its schools are notorious for emphasizing rote memorization over independent or creative thinking. An estimated 26 million Pakistani children are out of school and many of them live in Balochistan and KP.

The need to build vibrant schools transcends these conflicts but it cannot be overstated how much neglecting to do so has contributed to them. The refusal of Pakistan’s elite to invest in public education due to their ability to pay for private schools is yet one more example of their incredibly short-sighted and self-destructive thinking.

Aside from teaching people to fish, governments must create an environment that allows business and commerce to thrive so they can put their fishing skills to good use. This requires a variety of policies too numerous to adequately address here. At a minimum, governments must build economic infrastructure like fiber optic lines, highways, and power plants while providing the essential but often overlooked services like running water, sanitation, internet access, and electricity that make modern life possible. They must also implement fiscal and banking policies that encourage domestic savings so they can be re-invested towards productive ends in the form of loans and reduce regulations that stifle trade or create barriers to entry for new businesses while investing in modern healthcare infrastructure, renewable energy, and boosting exports.

These are all basic, common-sense steps that should be obvious to everyone. Since Pakistan’s leaders have adamantly refused to implement them for decades, it seemed necessary to explain them.

Pakistan’s elite have not been receptive to these ideas due to a variety of historical and institutional factors that we do not have the space to adequately address either. However, it should be noted that land reforms, which are long overdue in Pakistan, would address one of these institutional barriers while improving the socio-economic situations in both provinces, which would also reduce violence.

Despite the desperate need for land reforms designed to distribute smaller parcels to many of the country’s rural poor, no one has devised a mechanism to achieve this goal that is not mired in corruption or subject to abuse. The most logical way to break up large, unproductive land holdings is by using the tax code[5] and market mechanisms to incentivize their owners to sell parcels they are not using to generate revenue by taxing them at a significantly higher rate than productive land. Note the most important variable here is not the size of the tract but whether it is being used productively since those who put large tracts of land to productive use should be rewarded, not penalized. Over the long run, using tax and market-based incentives to break up Pakistan’s many large parcels of unproductive land would slowly ameliorate the negative impact of having so much of its land owned by so few of its people.

To accelerate the process, the 1 million acres of land recently sought by the Army from the Punjab government for “corporate farming” purposes should be re-distributed to the young men and women looking for work throughout the country. To the extent there is unused land in Balochistan and KP, it should be distributed in a similar fashion. Priority should be given to those displaced by climate disasters or conflict and parcels should not exceed 5-10 acres.

To assist these people in putting this land to productive uses, the government must provide them with the training and resources needed to utilize the latest agricultural techniques by funding universities and nurturing local industry that can supply the necessary goods and expertise. Developing these capabilities will require training the scientists and engineers needed to develop new crops, seeds, and technology to improve yields and productivity. It will also require factories that can produce tractors, drip irrigation systems, solar panels, vertical grow equipment, greenhouses, and even microchips to power the sensors, drones, and software used to monitor crops and inputs.

Land reforms combined with modernizing Pakistan’s inefficient agricultural sector and making it self-sufficient would help stabilize both provinces. Aside from stimulating the industrial activity associated with building the goods described above, it would increase the availability of products for export and the raw materials needed to supply other local industries. Most importantly, as Marie Antoinette and the French aristocracy once learned the hard way, providing people with abundant and cheap food plays a part in staving off insurgencies and revolutions too. The need to develop these capabilities is even more pressing due to the looming threat of climate change which has already hurt crop production throughout the country and will only fuel further unrest.

A healthy, self-sufficient agricultural base is the foundation upon which a strong economy and state is built. And building a strong state is the most fundamental element to quelling domestic insurgencies. There will always be extremists who prefer violence over reason. America is full of well-armed extremist groups and militias. But none of them have turned their weapons on their government because the American state is too powerful to challenge. Pakistan must strive to build a state equally capable of dissuading its own extremists from violence. Combined, the policies suggested above would allow its leaders to do exactly that.

IDEOLOGY AND THE WAR OF IDEAS

Another important, but often underrated, aspect to defeating insurgents is defeating the ideology that motivates them and their supporters. Pakistan’s leaders have taken a step in the right direction by labeling the TTP as “kharijites,” however, the term “munafiqun” would be more accurate. Given their determination to divide and weaken a country with the potential to be the Muslim world’s most powerful state, they are clearly unbelievers masquerading as Muslims or working at the behest of foreign powers against the interests of the Muslim community. In either case, they are hypocrites under both Quranic and contemporary definitions and should be labelled as such.

Aside from accurately describing their enemies, they must do more to articulate why the demands of those rebelling against the state are unjust and irrational. The best way to do that is by explaining why they make no sense.

Though the conflict in Balochistan has primarily been driven by the abuse and neglect its people have suffered over the years, there is also a nationalist element to their cause. The Baloch constitute a unique cultural and linguistic group with their own definable territory. Based on these factors, some believe they deserve their own state.

These views are an extension of the nationalist ideologies that spread to the Muslim world from Europe and helped spur and shape many of the anti-colonial struggles that worked to end its rule of the region. As the Muslim world continues to consolidate and rebuild in the aftermath of these conquests, it is inevitable some of the new states created in the post-colonial period will collapse or be re-shaped based on these same ideas. This is a natural process that has been going on since the beginning of civilization. It can currently be seen at work in Syria, Iraq, Libya, and Sudan, none of which are likely to retain their current boundaries for much longer.

Whether Pakistan suffers a similar fate partially depends on whether the Baloch cause-belli is reasonable or realistic. Thankfully, it is neither.  Though the Baloch certainly constitute a unique ethnic group, there are simply too few of them to assert control over their vast province since they are bordered by substantially greater numbers of Persians, Pashtuns, Sindhis, and Punjabis. The laws of demographics and the way in which larger and denser populations naturally expand into and assert control over sparsely populated adjacent territories suggests the Baloch are destined to remain minorities within a larger political experiment. Whether this experiment is centered in Persia, Afghanistan, or the Punjab is the only real question. For a variety of practical and political reasons, such as their proximity and established connections, the Baloch are better off linked to the latter than either of the former options. For all its faults, the Pakistani government is far more accommodating than either the Taliban or the Ayatollahs who rule Iran.

On a more philosophical level, it should be noted that nationalist ideologies and sentiments have no place in the Muslim world. They may have been necessary to help organize resistance to European control but have played a mostly toxic role in dividing Muslim societies into ever smaller tribes that no longer recognize each other as family. The consequences of these divisions have been made painfully obvious in Gaza, Kashmir, Yemen, Chechnya, Bosnia, and many other places. While one can certainly empathize with the Baloch and must concede their perspective is not without some merit, overall, the notion that Pakistan must be divided to support their nationalist aspirations is not reasonable or just.

Despite its many flaws, Pakistan is a noble cause worth fighting for. The growing right-wing belligerence and saffron themed fanaticism in India proves exactly why the Muslims of South Asia need their own homeland and why Pakistan must remain a unified and strong nation to protect them. The Pan-Islamic ideas that sparked its creation are still worthwhile, but they must be revitalized in a way that reflects the realities of today’s world.

Doing that will require building political systems that devolve power down to local communities to prevent abuse by distant elites or feelings of marginalization. Only a liberal, democratic system that respects the differences between Pakistan’s incredibly diverse people and allows them to govern themselves can keep the country together.

Conversely, the authoritarian and draconian ideas articulated by the TTP will keep Pakistan at war with itself forever. Compared to the Baloch, the arguments put forth to justify the TTP’s violence are completely unhinged. The TTP take their inspiration from their brothers in arms in Afghanistan, who spent a combined thirty years fighting off Russian and American occupiers.  They seek to emulate their example by destroying the Pakistani state and creating an emirate modeled after the one created in Afghanistan. In other words, they want to turn Pakistan into Afghanistan, a mediaeval society, bereft of wisdom, scientific knowledge, industry, or modern armaments that has proven incapable of deterring invaders.

Nothing in Afghanistan’s modern history should be viewed as a victory for Muslims or something to imitate. Afghanistan has been repeatedly invaded by a succession of Great Powers because it is incredibly weak and unstable. As a result, it has been unable to build a central government that can bring its diverse people together or field a modern military to defend them. Millions of innocent Afghan lives were torn apart and destroyed because their rulers were too weak to protect them.

Afghans may have been able to fight off their occupiers, but the fact they were forced to resort to guerrilla tactics to win their freedom is a testament to their enduring weakness, not their strength. They are not an ideal to aspire to but a cautionary tale that should inspire others to avoid making similar mistakes by studying why Afghanistan has been so weak and easily conquered for so long.

Part of the answer lies in the extreme and illogical views espoused by the TTP and their Afghan compatriots. Both believe in a harsh and vicious interpretation of Islam that not only contradicts many of the precedents set during the early Islamic period they claim to idealize but makes no sense in the modern era. Like many authoritarian political movements in the Muslim world, the TTP believe the government’s job is to “command the good” and “forbid the bad.”

Giving the government the power to police religious behavior is the most poisonous and inappropriate use of political power imaginable. It inevitably leads to dictatorship and abuse while corrupting a nation’s political and religious institutions. The only way to prevent this corruption is by keeping politics and religion separate. The government’s role is not to enforce religious practices or conformity but to protect the nation from invasion, maintain law and order, and nurture socio-economic development.

The TTP’s refusal to countenance change, accommodate those with differing religious views or empower women epitomizes the sort of incredibly self-destructive and reactionary ideas that allowed Europe to conquer and colonize the Muslim world in the first place. To embrace their worldview is to embrace suicide by inviting more conquest and destruction. It is the very definition of insanity.

If Muslims ever want to put an end to the massacres and violence that have consumed so many of their communities, they must shun the insane arguments articulated by groups like the TTP and Afghan Taliban. They must also change the authoritarian legal environment and culture that allows them to flourish. Pakistan’s sporadic lynchings by angry mobs, blasphemy laws, and the blatant and violent discrimination Ahmadis face are all tied to the same destructive mentality that allows groups like the TTP to take root. Until Ahmadis are free to worship as they please and people are free to speak their minds without fear of mob violence or legal proceedings, Pakistan will remain a land where evil men try to impose their will on others.

CONCLUSION

Unfortunately, implementing these ideas requires the sort of consensus Pakistan’s rulers are currently incapable of reaching. The country’s most popular leader sits in jail alongside the former director of its premier intelligence agency. Pakistan’s elite is too fractured and focused on doing business as usual to face the nation’s many challenges.

The farcical “election” that brought the current government to power shows the military and its allies have learned nothing from their past mistakes. None of the changes or policies recommended herein will work so long as Pakistan’s military remains its most powerful political and economic actor. As we have explained, defeating insurgencies requires an emphasis on political, not military solutions. Which means Pakistan’s military rulers are ill-equipped to resolve these issues. Nevertheless, they refuse to give way to the civilians best suited to the job or contemplate meaningful reforms. Instead, they appear determined to maintain their power and privileges until the entire country collapses around them or they are swept away in the tumult of revolution.


[1] Also, it should be noted that even “terrorists” deserve due process.

[2] Although the Palestinians are well within their rights to rebel against Israel’s apartheid policies and occupation, as the author has argued many times before, their best course of action is still non-violent resistance.

[3] Another euphemism popular in the West that highlights its moral depravity and ability to de-humanize the victims of its many wars of imperial conquest.

[4] Spill over from the Russian and American occupations of Afghanistan have also contributed to the current situation; however, the choice to arm the most extreme elements within the Mujahideen and support their offspring in the Taliban was made by the government of Pakistan and its short-sighted political elites. As such, Pakistan’s government is guilty of laying the foundations for these insurgencies and exacerbating the issues driving them because of its incompetence.    

[5] This will, of course, require building tax agencies capable of enforcing the tax code and collecting funds without siphoning them.

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For the record

President Biden’s decision not to seek reelection was particularly validating for me. This development is consistent with one of the subplots in my forthcoming novel, How the Assassination of Donald Rumsfeld led to the fall of the Milky Way. It is a work of science fiction involving wormholes and time travel that mostly functions as a parable to show why the Muslim world has been so weak for so long. The main protagonist from Part I convinces himself to enlist in the US Space Force in the year 2025, in part, because the White House is occupied by Gavin Newsome, who replaces Biden after he unexpectedly drops out of the race shortly before the election. The character is an Iraqi refugee who grew up in the suburbs of Maryland and has no desire to serve under a Commander and Chief who supports apartheid Israel and its violence against the Palestinians. I wrote this scene in 2022 in reference to one of Israel’s many other violent attacks on Gaza.  

This prediction is one of several I have made since I began my novels and blog, www.mirrorsfortheprince.com.

For example, over the years I have made repeated calls for the Palestinians to adopt non-violent means of resistance to Israel’s apartheid regime. On Nov. 11, 2020, I even suggested “it is time for the Palestinians to surrender.” My calls for non-violence were based on a clear-eyed diagnosis of the dynamics driving this conflict wherein the Palestinians are hopelessly outgunned by people willing to slaughter innocent women and children.

Given recent events in Gaza, my admonition that “armed struggle plays directly into the hands of the considerably more powerful IDF” has proven depressingly prescient. Although the numerous reports of Israeli soldiers shooting unarmed people waving white flags have certainly given me pause, I still believe following my advice to wave white flags of surrender en masse would have prevented much of the bloodshed witnessed since Oct. 7th

I also wrote “Israelis just elected a government that will murder thousands of Palestinian civilians” ten months before its massacre in Gaza on Dec. 5th 2022 and that “when the inevitable happens, most Americans will talk about how “complicated” this conflict is while our government continues to supply Israel with the weapons and funding needed to continue the slaughter.” I further argued, “Israel’s new government is crazy and will very likely end up being genocidal” in that same piece. Here, it was obvious the moment Israel’s extremist government was elected that it would do everything in its power to goad the Palestinians into responding and then use their response as an excuse to unleash horrific violence.

Similarly, I argued the August before Hamas’ attack that efforts to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords would never lead to real peace because marginalizing the Palestinians would only make the region’s “problems worse by exacerbating its underlying issues.” Foreign Affairs Magazine published a piece that mostly agreed with my analysis. It just took them eleven months and the war in Gaza to see what was obvious to me much earlier (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/dangerous-push-israeli-saudi-normalization).

My analysis regarding areas outside Palestine has proven equally accurate. On Nov. 17, 2020, I argued the Afghan Republic’s dependence on American military support was a critical vulnerability that would lead to “the development of an entirely new government in Afghanistan that, at best, will have to share power with the Taliban in the near future” eight months before the Taliban marched into Kabul.

On Oct. 20, 2022, when America’s leaders and foreign policy establishment were up in arms about Saudi Arabia’s decision to drive oil prices higher, I mocked the idea that their anger portended a long term shift as some other analysts were suggesting. Instead, I argued this episode was just another bump in their often bumpy relationship that would soon be “glossed over.” The rumors these nations are currently negotiating a long-term security agreement that may involve the transfer of nuclear technology shows my analysis was spot on again.

Even the anti-Muslim riots that  recently shook the UK validate the concerns raised in this piece about the dangers Muslims in America face. The only difference: America’s right-wing nuts are armed with AR-15s, not knives.

Admittedly, forecasting geopolitical developments is more art than science since predicting the exact fallout when political, social, military, and economic trends collide is obviously impossible. It is possible, however, to analyze data, compare it to additional data from the historical record, and use this information to make logical inferences and extrapolations.

Even in a fictional setting written several years ago, it seemed clear Biden’s age would force him to step aside. The difficulty was not in predicting he would be unable to run again but in deciding on his successor. I chose Gavin Newsome because I believed America was too racist and sexist to support a candidate like Kamala Harris. That same scene also forecast Ron DeSantis as the Republican nominee because the idea anyone could support Trump for President again after Jan. 6th seemed beyond the pale.

Similarly, I never imagined Putin would be dumb enough to hold on in Ukraine for this long. It was obvious within the first few months of this war that he had marched his forces into an unwinnable quagmire that could easily lead to the disintegration of the Russian Federation. I still stand by that conclusion, but I underestimated Putin’s willingness to double down on a losing bet and Russia’s ability to withstand western sanction and rebuild its forces. Nevertheless, Putin’s stubbornness over Ukraine will likely have a similar impact as the failed Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, though it may take another decade or so before we see the results.

My repeated ability to accurately forecast world events suggests the underlying analysis driving these observations is sound, which should worry people in America and the Muslim world. As I have stated many times, America is headed for disaster. A reasonable analysis of the macro-trends suggests economic upheaval and large-scale violence are very real possibilities within the next few decades. America today reminds me of Prof. Kennedy’s admonition that “a large military establishment may, like a great monument, look imposing to the impressionable observer; but if it is not resting upon a firm foundation (in this case, a productive national economy), it runs the risk of a future collapse.”

America is headed for the same abyss that trapped the Muslim world centuries ago since it is now controlled by military industrialists and elites who can only thrive when it is at war. As the Ottomans once learned, this is the path to self-destruction.

Unfortunately, my warnings have gone unheeded so far. I do not expect these words will convince anyone either. But as a lawyer, I understand the importance of keeping a record. As such, this piece is intended to memorialize yet one more of my accurate predictions since Part I will probably not be ready for publication before the election in November. At the least, I hope these thoughts will be of interest to those studying us many years from now. But that will probably depend on the accuracy of my other longer-term predictions.

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What has the war in Gaza revealed about the world?

Part IV: the “rules” based international system

This essay was first published here, by the Friday Times on July 16, 2024.

This discussion began by focusing on what the war in Gaza teaches us about America. It will now conclude with an examination of what it reveals about its “rules” based international system. Whereas the lessons gleaned from parts I, II, and III were relatively straight forward, using Gaza to understand the nature of the current international order is more complicated due to America’s contradictory behavior and blatant gaslighting.

For example, Jeffery Cimmino and Matthew Kroenig state the Pax Americana is designed to promote stability throughout the world by encouraging “peaceful, predictable, and cooperative behavior among states that is consistent with liberal values and principles” while placing “limits on the use of military force” and advancing “democratic values and human rights.” However, America’s unequivocal support for apartheid Israel and the massacre it unleashed on Gaza’s civilians suggests these lofty principles have no real connection to its actions. Given the disconnect between its stated ideals and actions, this discussion will focus on America’s behavior to determine three aspects of the international system it created, namely, when does it allow people to wage war, does it protect civilians during war, and whether it truly promotes democracy.

WHEN IS WAR JUSTIFIED?

Men have traditionally waged war for power, wealth, women, and territory. Every once and a while they build empires that pretend to aspire to greater things like God or democracy to justify their actions, but organized violence is rarely noble or moral. In the aftermath of WW2, the nations of the world tried to create a new international order based on the idea that war must only be waged as a last resort. The United Nations (UN) was founded to ensure states had peaceful ways of resolving their disputes to try and avoid future wars. Unfortunately, the five nations empowered to keep the peace were also some of the biggest arms dealers on the planet and each had its own imperial or neo-imperial ambitions. Thus, the system failed. It is mostly irrelevant now, but the UN charter is still meant to govern the conduct of nations, including when they are permitted to wage war.

Though some have tried to make nonsensical distinctions between “wars of choice” and “wars of necessity” to suggest otherwise, from a moral and legal perspective, war is only ever justified as a means of self-defense or coming to the defense of others in extreme situations. The right to self-defense is an almost universally acknowledged concept best characterized as a natural or innate right that is enshrined in most legal systems including Article 51 of the UN charter. In theory, the idea that violence is only ever justified as a defensive action should be easy to apply. Gaza, and by extension the entire Israeli-Palestinian conflict, prove otherwise.

Despite what many in the West would like to believe, Oct. 7th did not happen in a vacuum. It happened within the context of Israel’s 16-year blockade of Gaza, its total rejection of diplomacy including several attempts by Hamas to negotiate a long-term peace, its apartheid system, 75 years of conquest and ethnic cleansing and its policy of occasionally “mowing the grass,” which is a disgusting euphemism popular in the West that refers to Israel’s policy of preemptively attacking and murdering Palestinians. During the two years preceding this attack, Israel’s extremist government did everything it could to provoke the Palestinians by desecrating their places of worship and murdering a record number of children. It even attacked Gaza five months before Oct. 7th in May of 2023, killing nine civilians, including 3 children.

In addition to brutalizing the Palestinians, Israel has spent years waging a relentless bombing and clandestine campaign against Iran and its allies because of their support for the Palestinians. It has bombed Lebanon and Syria hundreds of times. It is also responsible for murdering numerous high ranking Iranian government officials and conducting several acts of sabotage on its infrastructure. It even helped America murder General Soleimani, one of Iran’s highest-ranking officers who worked in a hybrid role roughly comparable to being the head of the CIA and America’s special forces command. As the recent strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria shows, Israel’s aggression has only grown over the past eight months. Inexplicably, Muslims are denied the right to defend themselves from this violence. They can neither respond to protect themselves nor intervene to save Palestine’s defenseless people.

On the other end of the spectrum, we are frequently reminded that Israel’s right to defend itself is absolute and expansive. Israel’s supporters have gone out of their way to frame its massacre as an act of self-defense meant to prevent future attacks. But the IDF regained control of the border within two days of the initial attack. It killed, captured, or expelled Hamas’ entire force, ending the threat they posed. Once Israel reinforced the border with its tanks and armored fighting vehicles, there was zero possibility of a repeat attack. That Hamas was able to inflict as much damage as it did, given its limited arsenal of light weapons, was shocking and mostly due to catching Israel off guard. But pretending it has the capabilities for a repeat performance is ridiculous. As such, nothing that has happened since that day can reasonably be described as self-defense. The slaughter Israel has carried out can only be classified as revenge and collective punishment.  

The current war in Gaza and the entire conquest of Palestine reveals a tiered international system in which a privileged few are allowed to wage war while others must never resort to violence, no matter the provocation. Americans and Israelis, as members of the West, can use violence whenever they deem it necessary and have no limits on who or how many they can kill. Whereas Muslims must meekly accept their fate when they are attacked, lest they be labeled “terrorists” and subjected to more violence.

Gaza is but one example of many that prove the point. When the countless other invasions and violent actions America has committed or enabled, like the invasions of Vietnam and Iraq or the insurgencies it supported in Central America are considered, the pattern shows America and its allies enjoy a monopoly on violence. They are allowed to do anything to feel safe, even if that means destroying another country for no reason at all or murdering entire families in their homes as they sleep.

Men still wage war for the same reasons they always have in the Pax Americana. The only difference is when they are armed with weapons made in America, their cause is automatically considered just. To oppose such men, even if they are stealing your land or bombing your family, is a crime.

ARE CIVILIANS PROTECTED DURING WAR?

Hamas’s attack killed over 1200 Israelis, 377 of whom were security personnel and 845 of whom were civilians. It also took over 250 hostages, including women and children. As such, its attack was condemned in the West because it intentionally targeted civilians. President Biden described it as “abhorrent” and “unadulterated evil” that caused harm to “innocent civilians.” The US House of Representatives passed a resolution denouncing it as “barbaric” while one Western commentator argued the violence Israel has inflicted on the Palestinians over the decades did not justify Oct 7th because, “no amount of context justifies killing babies.” These responses were largely due to the belief that Hamas broke the rules by targeting civilians, which is consistent with the idea that the Pax Americana limits the use of military force by protecting innocents during war.

The problem, of course, is that Israel’s response has killed or maimed tens of thousands of civilians. Not only has it killed a staggering number of innocents, but as we have discussed throughout this series, it did so intentionally. Its rules of engagement and targeting practices led it to launch missile strikes on the homes of Palestinian families at night while they were sleeping if its AI software decided one of them might be involved with Hamas. That they were full of children or that Hamas’ fighters were hiding underground was deemed irrelevant. 

Once again, Gaza reveals a double standard. Just as westerners are the only ones who have the right to protect themselves and can wage war under a definition of self-defense so broad it loses all meaning; their civilians are off limits too. Palestinian civilians, on the other hand, are fair game. They can be shot, beaten, carpet bombed, starved, arrested en masse, held without trial indefinitely, tortured or expelled from their homes. Similarly, their homes, hospitals, schools, and places of worship are legitimate targets too.  

In truth, this dynamic has been obvious since the end of WW2, which America concluded by firebombing residential neighborhoods in Tokyo and then dropping two atomic bombs on cities full of women and children. Charges related to the intentional bombing of civilians by German and Japanese officials were even dropped during the Nuremberg and Tokyo trials because the Allies were guilty of committing similar crimes. In fact, one of the few successful defenses available to these officials was pointing to similar conduct on the part of the Allies. Through these proceedings, the founders of the Pax Americana began their reign by giving themselves legal license to murder women and children.

Gaza is just one more example that proves when America, or those it empowers, wage war, they are allowed to murder women and children with impunity. Even an attack on a purely military target like Pearl Harbor will be deemed an offense worthy of burning 100,000 civilians to death. But any attempt to target civilians who deserve protection according to Western eyes, like Ukrainians, Israelis, or Americans, will be met with passionate condemnation and a massive escalation in violence.

DOES THE PAX AMERICANA REALLY PROMOTE DEMOCRACY?

To answer this question, we must look beyond Gaza since the current war does not directly touch on this issue. Thankfully, America’s support for apartheid Israel does. There are over 2.8 million Palestinians in the West Bank who have been forced to live under a brutal military occupation and apartheid system since 1967. None of these people have any say over the government that controls their lives and America has actively supported Israel in denying them their right to self-determination for decades. America’s unequivocal support for apartheid Israel unequivocally shows it does not promote democratic values or human rights.

As usual, Palestine is merely part of a broader pattern. In addition to supporting apartheid Israel in its quest to oppress the Palestinians, America has a long history of supporting dictators and juntas across the world. Since listing all the dictators America has armed and supported over the years would take entirely too much space, we will limit ourselves to just a few examples. It is currently the primary arms dealer to the tyrants who rule Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, and nearly every other Arab country. Without America’s support, the iron grip these dictators have on their societies would be considerably looser.

America’s support for the region’s despots is just the tip of the iceberg. It has also quietly helped undermine or topple the few democratic movements in the region. According to Shadi Hamid, the Obama Administration effectively gave Egypt’s generals the “greenlight” to overthrow their nation’s first democratically elected government. This assertion is supported by its remarkably muted condemnation of their coup and the haste with which it restored ties once the junta was in power, even after it mercilessly slaughtered over 1,000 demonstrators on the streets of Cairo. Mr. Hamid’s work has shed light on the extent to which America actively helped overthrow Egyptian democracy, though its leaders have done their best to obscure these facts.

Given the degree to which Egypt’s military depends on America for many of its weapons, like the F16s it flies or the M1 Abram tanks that form a substantial part of its armored units, it should be obvious, as a matter of simple logic, that Egypt’s generals would never do anything to jeopardize their access to these weapons. As such, it is highly unlikely they would overthrow their government without first getting permission from their favorite arms dealer.    

America played a similar role in toppling Tunisia’s democratic government too, going so far as to deny a coup had even taken place, and has spent decades undermining Pakistan’s civilian rulers while empowering its generals. But nothing illustrates its hostility to democracy in the Muslim world better than its relationship with Turkey. Even with its restrictions on free speech, Turkey’s claim to the title of the only democracy in the Middle East is superior to Israel’s since it has not violently disenfranchised millions of people under its control based solely on their ethnicity. Despite being the only democracy in the Middle East and the frequent proclamations America’s leaders make regarding their preference for working with other democracies, Turkey’s relationship with America has come under increased strain over the past few decades.

Many analysts like to pretend the souring in relations between these two once stalwart allies is due to Turkey’s “democratic back sliding” or disproportionately blame Turkish President Erdogan’s personal ambitions. Nothing could be further from the truth. The primary catalyst for Turkey’s growing rift with the West was its rejection by the E.U, which unmoored and set it adrift from the Western bloc. A secondary driver of this shift is the fact that Turkey’s government has become more responsive to the desires of its people, which is a function of the growing inclusivity of its political system particularly as it relates to the growth of Turkish civil society. Though it is still flawed in serious ways, Turkey’s democracy is getting stronger. As its democratic system has entrenched itself and grown from the shadow of the generals who so frequently tried to control it, Turkey’s leaders have been forced to act according to the wishes of their constituents. The tensions between Turkey and the West are therefore partially due to the fact that its government now gives expression to the Pan-Islamic sentiments of its people. President Erdogan’s passionate denunciations of Israel and embrace of Hamas are just two examples that show how these sentiments impact his rhetoric and policies.

Taken together, these facts show America is actively opposed to the spread of democracy in the Muslim world. Which makes sense considering its goal is to subjugate the region to its interests. Democratic Muslim governments are harder to control and more likely to enact policies that challenge America’s hegemonic policies. A democratic Egypt, for example, would never have worked with Israel to blockade Gaza, just as a democratic Turkey has become more willing to condemn Israeli excesses.

TYING IT ALL TOGETHER

Gaza reveals the true nature of the Pax Americana by showing it is a system that treats Muslim children as legitimate targets during war and denies their parents the rights to defend or govern themselves. As a system predicated on war and domination, it is not based on a set of definable rules but force and coercion. It is designed to violently maintain America’s control over the Muslim world and its resources. Which finally brings us to Gaza’s most important lesson.

America and Israel represent an immediate and existential threat to the peace and prosperity of not just the Palestinians, but the entire Muslim world. They have chosen the path of war and have no interest in real peace. Instead of recognizing that the choice to build Israel on Arab land means they must learn to live as equals with Palestinians, they have chosen apartheid and slaughter. Both believe they have the right to attack any part of the Muslim world they deem fit and have proven capable of mercilessly massacring children in pursuit of their goals.

By any sane measure, meaning one that values all human life equally regardless of the faith or identity of the victims, America has been an agent of chaos, violence, and repression throughout the region. One can only hope those responsible for its crimes live long enough to see justice. There is no statute of limitations on mass murder, after all. Just as Israel’s spies famously tracked down Nazi officials decades after WW2, there must come a day when its soldiers and politicians are dragged before tribunals to face justice for their transgressions alongside their American accomplices.

Before that can happen, Muslims must take the steps needed to protect themselves. Given the unhinged people Israelis and Americans keep choosing to lead them, their racist world views, lethal arsenals, and history of using chemical or nuclear weapons against defenseless women and children, Muslims should be very frightened of the type of violence they are capable of unleashing. The only way to put an end to the threat they pose is by finally taking the long overdue steps needed to build strong states that can defend them and work together.

The key to doing that is building inclusive and democratic political and social systems and institutions that can lead to the economic and technological growth they so desperately need. Muslim nations do not need more guns but more factories, start-ups, universities, research institutes, laboratories, political parties, and independent and honest judges, prosecutors, and journalists. Societies that do not possess such ingredients are incapable of building prosperous economies driven by innovation and technological growth which means they are incapable of building powerful militaries armed with the most advanced weapons.   

These ingredients will also help bring Muslims together, which is the only way to counter the Western coalition’s far greater strength. There is no single Muslim state powerful enough to stand up to America and its friends. The Arab, Central Asian, and African parts of the Muslim world are too weak or servile to be of any use in this regard while those in Southeast Asia are too remote. As such, the burden must fall to Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan. It is only by creating a deep-rooted alliance between these nations that Muslims have any chance at finally ending the neo-colonial dynamics that have ensnared them and regaining sovereignty over their lands in both name and fact.

America realized the possibilities of such an alliance decades ago when it created CENTO. The logic that compelled it to do so is still sound. Combining the power of these three nations would give them the strength to protect the Muslim world while stabilizing a large chunk of it. Turkish and Pakistani leaders may not wish to openly break with America, but any fool can see this is inevitable and necessary. America has denied both nations its most advanced weapons while offering them to their archrivals in Greece and India. It is investing in India’s defense industry while sanctioning Pakistan’s and it has an unstated policy of ensuring no Muslim state can ever develop enough power to threaten Israel or its control of the region. Whether they realize it or not, Pakistan and Turkey have no choice but to create an alliance with Iran. All three desperately need each other.

Effectively combining their powers will require linking them on multiple levels. They must create free trade zones reinforced by infrastructure designed to increase the flow of people, goods, and ideas between them. Encouraging tourism by creating international organizations designed to increase people to people contact like sports leagues and professional, civil, trade, and academic associations would also be wise. Even something as simple as starting a soccer league featuring teams from each country would go a long way towards building the sort of ties that can bind these nations. Most importantly, they must create fair and transparent ways for their people to trade with each other on a large scale. The best way to do that is by creating democratic systems based on the rule of law. Which highlights, yet again, the desperate need to build such systems. Bringing these nations together represents the Muslim world’s best hope for finally ending the pattern of conquests and massacres that have plagued it for centuries.

As explained in Part III, it is only a matter of time before America implodes. Its decline will add to the chaos over the short term but may bring some reprieve over the long run. The problem is that at some point, another nation will step in and the same dynamics that prevented Muslims from protecting themselves from the West will still exist. Due to its unique geographic position as a bridge that connects Western Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, India, and China, there will always be powerful states with an interest in controlling the Muslim world. As a result, Muslims nations must remain vigilant about safeguarding their freedoms.  As Palestine shows, the price for failing in this vigilance is paid in blood. If Muslims ever want the bloodshed to stop, they will need to make some serious changes to their societies consistent with the ideas discussed above. Until they do, they will be forced to obey the ridiculous “rules” others impose on them.

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