What has the war in Gaza revealed about the world?

Part IV: the “rules” based international system

This essay was first published here, by the Friday Times on July 16, 2024.

This discussion began by focusing on what the war in Gaza teaches us about America. It will now conclude with an examination of what it reveals about its “rules” based international system. Whereas the lessons gleaned from parts I, II, and III were relatively straight forward, using Gaza to understand the nature of the current international order is more complicated due to America’s contradictory behavior and blatant gaslighting.

For example, Jeffery Cimmino and Matthew Kroenig state the Pax Americana is designed to promote stability throughout the world by encouraging “peaceful, predictable, and cooperative behavior among states that is consistent with liberal values and principles” while placing “limits on the use of military force” and advancing “democratic values and human rights.” However, America’s unequivocal support for apartheid Israel and the massacre it unleashed on Gaza’s civilians suggests these lofty principles have no real connection to its actions. Given the disconnect between its stated ideals and actions, this discussion will focus on America’s behavior to determine three aspects of the international system it created, namely, when does it allow people to wage war, does it protect civilians during war, and whether it truly promotes democracy.

WHEN IS WAR JUSTIFIED?

Men have traditionally waged war for power, wealth, women, and territory. Every once and a while they build empires that pretend to aspire to greater things like God or democracy to justify their actions, but organized violence is rarely noble or moral. In the aftermath of WW2, the nations of the world tried to create a new international order based on the idea that war must only be waged as a last resort. The United Nations (UN) was founded to ensure states had peaceful ways of resolving their disputes to try and avoid future wars. Unfortunately, the five nations empowered to keep the peace were also some of the biggest arms dealers on the planet and each had its own imperial or neo-imperial ambitions. Thus, the system failed. It is mostly irrelevant now, but the UN charter is still meant to govern the conduct of nations, including when they are permitted to wage war.

Though some have tried to make nonsensical distinctions between “wars of choice” and “wars of necessity” to suggest otherwise, from a moral and legal perspective, war is only ever justified as a means of self-defense or coming to the defense of others in extreme situations. The right to self-defense is an almost universally acknowledged concept best characterized as a natural or innate right that is enshrined in most legal systems including Article 51 of the UN charter. In theory, the idea that violence is only ever justified as a defensive action should be easy to apply. Gaza, and by extension the entire Israeli-Palestinian conflict, prove otherwise.

Despite what many in the West would like to believe, Oct. 7th did not happen in a vacuum. It happened within the context of Israel’s 16-year blockade of Gaza, its total rejection of diplomacy including several attempts by Hamas to negotiate a long-term peace, its apartheid system, 75 years of conquest and ethnic cleansing and its policy of occasionally “mowing the grass,” which is a disgusting euphemism popular in the West that refers to Israel’s policy of preemptively attacking and murdering Palestinians. During the two years preceding this attack, Israel’s extremist government did everything it could to provoke the Palestinians by desecrating their places of worship and murdering a record number of children. It even attacked Gaza five months before Oct. 7th in May of 2023, killing nine civilians, including 3 children.

In addition to brutalizing the Palestinians, Israel has spent years waging a relentless bombing and clandestine campaign against Iran and its allies because of their support for the Palestinians. It has bombed Lebanon and Syria hundreds of times. It is also responsible for murdering numerous high ranking Iranian government officials and conducting several acts of sabotage on its infrastructure. It even helped America murder General Soleimani, one of Iran’s highest-ranking officers who worked in a hybrid role roughly comparable to being the head of the CIA and America’s special forces command. As the recent strike on Iran’s consulate in Syria shows, Israel’s aggression has only grown over the past eight months. Inexplicably, Muslims are denied the right to defend themselves from this violence. They can neither respond to protect themselves nor intervene to save Palestine’s defenseless people.

On the other end of the spectrum, we are frequently reminded that Israel’s right to defend itself is absolute and expansive. Israel’s supporters have gone out of their way to frame its massacre as an act of self-defense meant to prevent future attacks. But the IDF regained control of the border within two days of the initial attack. It killed, captured, or expelled Hamas’ entire force, ending the threat they posed. Once Israel reinforced the border with its tanks and armored fighting vehicles, there was zero possibility of a repeat attack. That Hamas was able to inflict as much damage as it did, given its limited arsenal of light weapons, was shocking and mostly due to catching Israel off guard. But pretending it has the capabilities for a repeat performance is ridiculous. As such, nothing that has happened since that day can reasonably be described as self-defense. The slaughter Israel has carried out can only be classified as revenge and collective punishment.  

The current war in Gaza and the entire conquest of Palestine reveals a tiered international system in which a privileged few are allowed to wage war while others must never resort to violence, no matter the provocation. Americans and Israelis, as members of the West, can use violence whenever they deem it necessary and have no limits on who or how many they can kill. Whereas Muslims must meekly accept their fate when they are attacked, lest they be labeled “terrorists” and subjected to more violence.

Gaza is but one example of many that prove the point. When the countless other invasions and violent actions America has committed or enabled, like the invasions of Vietnam and Iraq or the insurgencies it supported in Central America are considered, the pattern shows America and its allies enjoy a monopoly on violence. They are allowed to do anything to feel safe, even if that means destroying another country for no reason at all or murdering entire families in their homes as they sleep.

Men still wage war for the same reasons they always have in the Pax Americana. The only difference is when they are armed with weapons made in America, their cause is automatically considered just. To oppose such men, even if they are stealing your land or bombing your family, is a crime.

ARE CIVILIANS PROTECTED DURING WAR?

Hamas’s attack killed over 1200 Israelis, 377 of whom were security personnel and 845 of whom were civilians. It also took over 250 hostages, including women and children. As such, its attack was condemned in the West because it intentionally targeted civilians. President Biden described it as “abhorrent” and “unadulterated evil” that caused harm to “innocent civilians.” The US House of Representatives passed a resolution denouncing it as “barbaric” while one Western commentator argued the violence Israel has inflicted on the Palestinians over the decades did not justify Oct 7th because, “no amount of context justifies killing babies.” These responses were largely due to the belief that Hamas broke the rules by targeting civilians, which is consistent with the idea that the Pax Americana limits the use of military force by protecting innocents during war.

The problem, of course, is that Israel’s response has killed or maimed tens of thousands of civilians. Not only has it killed a staggering number of innocents, but as we have discussed throughout this series, it did so intentionally. Its rules of engagement and targeting practices led it to launch missile strikes on the homes of Palestinian families at night while they were sleeping if its AI software decided one of them might be involved with Hamas. That they were full of children or that Hamas’ fighters were hiding underground was deemed irrelevant. 

Once again, Gaza reveals a double standard. Just as westerners are the only ones who have the right to protect themselves and can wage war under a definition of self-defense so broad it loses all meaning; their civilians are off limits too. Palestinian civilians, on the other hand, are fair game. They can be shot, beaten, carpet bombed, starved, arrested en masse, held without trial indefinitely, tortured or expelled from their homes. Similarly, their homes, hospitals, schools, and places of worship are legitimate targets too.  

In truth, this dynamic has been obvious since the end of WW2, which America concluded by firebombing residential neighborhoods in Tokyo and then dropping two atomic bombs on cities full of women and children. Charges related to the intentional bombing of civilians by German and Japanese officials were even dropped during the Nuremberg and Tokyo trials because the Allies were guilty of committing similar crimes. In fact, one of the few successful defenses available to these officials was pointing to similar conduct on the part of the Allies. Through these proceedings, the founders of the Pax Americana began their reign by giving themselves legal license to murder women and children.

Gaza is just one more example that proves when America, or those it empowers, wage war, they are allowed to murder women and children with impunity. Even an attack on a purely military target like Pearl Harbor will be deemed an offense worthy of burning 100,000 civilians to death. But any attempt to target civilians who deserve protection according to Western eyes, like Ukrainians, Israelis, or Americans, will be met with passionate condemnation and a massive escalation in violence.

DOES THE PAX AMERICANA REALLY PROMOTE DEMOCRACY?

To answer this question, we must look beyond Gaza since the current war does not directly touch on this issue. Thankfully, America’s support for apartheid Israel does. There are over 2.8 million Palestinians in the West Bank who have been forced to live under a brutal military occupation and apartheid system since 1967. None of these people have any say over the government that controls their lives and America has actively supported Israel in denying them their right to self-determination for decades. America’s unequivocal support for apartheid Israel unequivocally shows it does not promote democratic values or human rights.

As usual, Palestine is merely part of a broader pattern. In addition to supporting apartheid Israel in its quest to oppress the Palestinians, America has a long history of supporting dictators and juntas across the world. Since listing all the dictators America has armed and supported over the years would take entirely too much space, we will limit ourselves to just a few examples. It is currently the primary arms dealer to the tyrants who rule Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Bahrain, Qatar, and nearly every other Arab country. Without America’s support, the iron grip these dictators have on their societies would be considerably looser.

America’s support for the region’s despots is just the tip of the iceberg. It has also quietly helped undermine or topple the few democratic movements in the region. According to Shadi Hamid, the Obama Administration effectively gave Egypt’s generals the “greenlight” to overthrow their nation’s first democratically elected government. This assertion is supported by its remarkably muted condemnation of their coup and the haste with which it restored ties once the junta was in power, even after it mercilessly slaughtered over 1,000 demonstrators on the streets of Cairo. Mr. Hamid’s work has shed light on the extent to which America actively helped overthrow Egyptian democracy, though its leaders have done their best to obscure these facts.

Given the degree to which Egypt’s military depends on America for many of its weapons, like the F16s it flies or the M1 Abram tanks that form a substantial part of its armored units, it should be obvious, as a matter of simple logic, that Egypt’s generals would never do anything to jeopardize their access to these weapons. As such, it is highly unlikely they would overthrow their government without first getting permission from their favorite arms dealer.    

America played a similar role in toppling Tunisia’s democratic government too, going so far as to deny a coup had even taken place, and has spent decades undermining Pakistan’s civilian rulers while empowering its generals. But nothing illustrates its hostility to democracy in the Muslim world better than its relationship with Turkey. Even with its restrictions on free speech, Turkey’s claim to the title of the only democracy in the Middle East is superior to Israel’s since it has not violently disenfranchised millions of people under its control based solely on their ethnicity. Despite being the only democracy in the Middle East and the frequent proclamations America’s leaders make regarding their preference for working with other democracies, Turkey’s relationship with America has come under increased strain over the past few decades.

Many analysts like to pretend the souring in relations between these two once stalwart allies is due to Turkey’s “democratic back sliding” or disproportionately blame Turkish President Erdogan’s personal ambitions. Nothing could be further from the truth. The primary catalyst for Turkey’s growing rift with the West was its rejection by the E.U, which unmoored and set it adrift from the Western bloc. A secondary driver of this shift is the fact that Turkey’s government has become more responsive to the desires of its people, which is a function of the growing inclusivity of its political system particularly as it relates to the growth of Turkish civil society. Though it is still flawed in serious ways, Turkey’s democracy is getting stronger. As its democratic system has entrenched itself and grown from the shadow of the generals who so frequently tried to control it, Turkey’s leaders have been forced to act according to the wishes of their constituents. The tensions between Turkey and the West are therefore partially due to the fact that its government now gives expression to the Pan-Islamic sentiments of its people. President Erdogan’s passionate denunciations of Israel and embrace of Hamas are just two examples that show how these sentiments impact his rhetoric and policies.

Taken together, these facts show America is actively opposed to the spread of democracy in the Muslim world. Which makes sense considering its goal is to subjugate the region to its interests. Democratic Muslim governments are harder to control and more likely to enact policies that challenge America’s hegemonic policies. A democratic Egypt, for example, would never have worked with Israel to blockade Gaza, just as a democratic Turkey has become more willing to condemn Israeli excesses.

TYING IT ALL TOGETHER

Gaza reveals the true nature of the Pax Americana by showing it is a system that treats Muslim children as legitimate targets during war and denies their parents the rights to defend or govern themselves. As a system predicated on war and domination, it is not based on a set of definable rules but force and coercion. It is designed to violently maintain America’s control over the Muslim world and its resources. Which finally brings us to Gaza’s most important lesson.

America and Israel represent an immediate and existential threat to the peace and prosperity of not just the Palestinians, but the entire Muslim world. They have chosen the path of war and have no interest in real peace. Instead of recognizing that the choice to build Israel on Arab land means they must learn to live as equals with Palestinians, they have chosen apartheid and slaughter. Both believe they have the right to attack any part of the Muslim world they deem fit and have proven capable of mercilessly massacring children in pursuit of their goals.

By any sane measure, meaning one that values all human life equally regardless of the faith or identity of the victims, America has been an agent of chaos, violence, and repression throughout the region. One can only hope those responsible for its crimes live long enough to see justice. There is no statute of limitations on mass murder, after all. Just as Israel’s spies famously tracked down Nazi officials decades after WW2, there must come a day when its soldiers and politicians are dragged before tribunals to face justice for their transgressions alongside their American accomplices.

Before that can happen, Muslims must take the steps needed to protect themselves. Given the unhinged people Israelis and Americans keep choosing to lead them, their racist world views, lethal arsenals, and history of using chemical or nuclear weapons against defenseless women and children, Muslims should be very frightened of the type of violence they are capable of unleashing. The only way to put an end to the threat they pose is by finally taking the long overdue steps needed to build strong states that can defend them and work together.

The key to doing that is building inclusive and democratic political and social systems and institutions that can lead to the economic and technological growth they so desperately need. Muslim nations do not need more guns but more factories, start-ups, universities, research institutes, laboratories, political parties, and independent and honest judges, prosecutors, and journalists. Societies that do not possess such ingredients are incapable of building prosperous economies driven by innovation and technological growth which means they are incapable of building powerful militaries armed with the most advanced weapons.   

These ingredients will also help bring Muslims together, which is the only way to counter the Western coalition’s far greater strength. There is no single Muslim state powerful enough to stand up to America and its friends. The Arab, Central Asian, and African parts of the Muslim world are too weak or servile to be of any use in this regard while those in Southeast Asia are too remote. As such, the burden must fall to Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan. It is only by creating a deep-rooted alliance between these nations that Muslims have any chance at finally ending the neo-colonial dynamics that have ensnared them and regaining sovereignty over their lands in both name and fact.

America realized the possibilities of such an alliance decades ago when it created CENTO. The logic that compelled it to do so is still sound. Combining the power of these three nations would give them the strength to protect the Muslim world while stabilizing a large chunk of it. Turkish and Pakistani leaders may not wish to openly break with America, but any fool can see this is inevitable and necessary. America has denied both nations its most advanced weapons while offering them to their archrivals in Greece and India. It is investing in India’s defense industry while sanctioning Pakistan’s and it has an unstated policy of ensuring no Muslim state can ever develop enough power to threaten Israel or its control of the region. Whether they realize it or not, Pakistan and Turkey have no choice but to create an alliance with Iran. All three desperately need each other.

Effectively combining their powers will require linking them on multiple levels. They must create free trade zones reinforced by infrastructure designed to increase the flow of people, goods, and ideas between them. Encouraging tourism by creating international organizations designed to increase people to people contact like sports leagues and professional, civil, trade, and academic associations would also be wise. Even something as simple as starting a soccer league featuring teams from each country would go a long way towards building the sort of ties that can bind these nations. Most importantly, they must create fair and transparent ways for their people to trade with each other on a large scale. The best way to do that is by creating democratic systems based on the rule of law. Which highlights, yet again, the desperate need to build such systems. Bringing these nations together represents the Muslim world’s best hope for finally ending the pattern of conquests and massacres that have plagued it for centuries.

As explained in Part III, it is only a matter of time before America implodes. Its decline will add to the chaos over the short term but may bring some reprieve over the long run. The problem is that at some point, another nation will step in and the same dynamics that prevented Muslims from protecting themselves from the West will still exist. Due to its unique geographic position as a bridge that connects Western Europe, Sub-Saharan Africa, India, and China, there will always be powerful states with an interest in controlling the Muslim world. As a result, Muslims nations must remain vigilant about safeguarding their freedoms.  As Palestine shows, the price for failing in this vigilance is paid in blood. If Muslims ever want the bloodshed to stop, they will need to make some serious changes to their societies consistent with the ideas discussed above. Until they do, they will be forced to obey the ridiculous “rules” others impose on them.

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What has the war in Gaza revealed about the world?

Part III: Muslims in America

This essay was first published here, by the Friday Times on July 10th, 2024.

We will now focus on what lessons the carnage in Gaza holds for America’s Muslims. To appreciate the full impact of this war, one must first understand how it fits within the context of America’s relationship with the wider Muslim world, which has largely been shaped by its desire to control the Middle East’s energy resources and make sure no Muslim state can threaten apartheid Israel.

In pursuit of these goals, it established de facto military control over much of the Middle East. It has had bases in Turkey since the advent of the Cold War, but once that conflict ended it used Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait as a pretext to establish a permanent military presence in the Gulf. As the recent attacks on its forces in Jordan, Iraq, and Syria show, it has troops scattered throughout the region. It maintains several air squadrons composed of advanced fighters, bombers, and drones and a permanent naval presence in the region that includes constantly rotating at least one aircraft carrier battle group into either the eastern Mediterranean Sea or Persian Gulf. In total, America has roughly 60-80k troops in the region on any given day. 

In addition to its substantial military presence, it has managed to ensure every Arab state, except Libya, Syria, Lebanon, Yemen and Sudan, is governed by dictators who must comply with its wishes. To make sure Muslim states are ruled by compliant rulers, it has employed the full spectrum of violence from assassinations and coups to all out invasions. It has also used special forces, drone strikes, and the occasional missile volley to quiet those opposed to its agenda. However, its preferred method of control is selling weapons to Muslim states, thereby making them dependent on America to maintain and equip their militaries. Through these various mechanisms, it has established a form of neo-imperial military control over much of the region and fittingly given it a neo-colonial façade.

It has achieved this power by inflicting unspeakable pain and suffering throughout the region. Gaza is but the latest in a long line of massacres America has committed or enabled against Muslims. An estimated 576,000 Iraqi children died because of the sanctions it imposed before the 2003 invasion, another 4.5 million died because of the War on Terror, and its support and weapons allowed Saudi Arabia to kill 377,000 Yemenis and Egypt to jail 60,000 non-violent political prisoners. Due to these actions, as well as many others we simply do not have the space to list, America has the blood of millions of innocents on its hands.

In sum, at the same time America was inviting Muslims from all over the world to its shores via immigration policies that made it easy for educated professionals to settle there, it was also violently attacking their homelands or supporting the brutal regimes that may have prompted some of them to seek new homes. Given this history and its long-standing support for apartheid Israel, being Muslim in America has always been complicated. By virtue of its decades long attempt to subjugate and control the Muslim world, America’s Muslims have often been in the uneasy position of being viewed and treated as a fifth column who cannot be fully trusted. As a result, dealing with bigotry and Islamophobia is an implicit part of the Muslim American experience.

Despite everything, America’s Muslims have thrived as a community. The Economist went so far as to call the twenty year period after 9/11 a “golden age” for us in which our population doubled and our influence grew. Until eight months ago, we were fully integrated into the fabric of American life and enmeshed in the pursuit of our American dreams.

Gaza has shattered those dreams. The images of mutilated and lifeless Palestinian children have reminded us that America is still perfectly capable of massacring Muslims while hiding behind vile, racist justifications to obscure its crimes. Watching Gaza’s poor people brutally murdered from afar and living in and paying taxes to the country enabling these crimes has been excruciatingly painful.

It has also led to action. As a community, America’s Muslims have spoken out loudly in defense of Gaza’s children. We have marched, petitioned our leaders, and even blocked traffic to bring attention to their plight. Despite our desperate pleas and the overwhelming evidence of Israel’s crimes, most have demonized, dismissed or ignored us. Instead of listening, many accused us of being terrorist sympathizers, pro-Hamas, or antisemitic. Congressman Mike Rollins went so far as to praise blatantly racist counter protesters in Mississippi, one of whom was mimicking an ape and gesturing towards a Pro-Palestinian African American protester. But Mr. Collins is hardly the only bigot in Congress. Rashida Tlaib, the only Palestinian-American member of Congress, was censured by 234 of her colleagues for daring to object to the slaughter of her people and call for their freedom. On the other hand, Brian Mast faced no consequences for justifying the murder of Palestinian babies by comparing them to Nazis.

These officials are merely a reflection of the society that elected them. America has always tolerated violence and discrimination towards Muslims. Since the start of this war, our children have been stabbed and shot. We have been fired from our jobs, arrested, expelled from our schools, sued, and even barred from speaking at our graduations. All because we refuse to be silent when Israel’s military murders children or ignore that it is a brutal apartheid state guilty of denying millions of Palestinians their basic human rights for nearly 60 years.

While all of this has been going on, most Americans have proven they simply do not care. About the mass murder their government is enabling in Gaza, or the blatant discrimination Muslim Americans face. Aside from a small, vocal minority, most have done their best to ignore Israel’s crimes and their nation’s role in aiding them.

The cumulative weight of this data reveals some very harsh truths. The most obvious: America’s Muslims are second class citizens who do not have the same right to express ourselves as our neighbors. Even when our government actively helps slaughter thousands of children, we must accept its actions without dissent or suffer the consequences. Despite our increased numbers and influence, neither our lives nor our voices matter. Not only do they not matter, but those who insist on expressing them will be silenced.

In many ways, Gaza reinforces what we have known the whole time. Muslims in America will always be viewed with suspicion and hostility. Even when we fully embrace the American ethos and fight for universal concepts like defending children from mass murder, we will be vilified, then ignored.

Gaza has reminded us how precarious it is to be Muslim in America. Nothing proves the point better than the upcoming presidential election. Our choices are Genocide Joe Biden, a self-described Zionist guilty of enabling the worst massacre of Palestinians since 1948 or Donald Trump, another self-described Zionist who believes his opponent has shown too much restraint in trying to limit Israel’s massacre. The only difference between these men is that one gaslights and lies to deflect criticism of his crimes while the other openly embraces and celebrates them. But when it comes to valuing Muslim lives or protecting children from slaughter, they are the same.  

Which leads us to another even harsher truth: Muslims do not belong in America. We are not wanted, and will not be safe if we stay here. As referenced in Part I, America is not on a sound trajectory. Over the next few decades, several seemingly unrelated factors will come together to cause economic and political upheaval of the sort that often leads to violence.

The starting point for such a discussion must begin with the massive debt America has accumulated to pay for its hegemonic ambitions and the exponential rate at which the interest payments required to service it are growing. This expense will cost $12.4 trillion over the next decade, making it the largest item in the budget and creating an unsustainable situation in which America will be printing and borrowing money to pay interest on the money it has already printed and borrowed. In an ironic twist, the debt Ronald Reagan first took on to pay for the arms race that bankrupted the Soviets now threatens to do the same to America. It is no longer difficult to imagine a day when it reaches $70-80 trillion, and the interest payments alone consume more than the federal government collects in tax receipts.  

Aside from printing the dollar into oblivion, America’s leaders have also been entering into free trade agreements that incentivized their companies to shift their manufacturing operations overseas. These agreements have caused millions of once high paying factory jobs to disappear. What was once described as the world’s workshop now consistently imports far more than it exports and has had an incredibly weak balance of payments for over thirty years in a row. This has had wide ranging political, social, and economic effects, the most obvious of which is the MAGA movement. As America’s leaders continue to debase their currency, paying for the massive quantity of goods and inputs their economy no longer produces will become prohibitively expensive. The destabilizing impact of dismantling its manufacturing base will only grow over the next few decades.

The root cause of America’s financial distress is its insistence on maintaining a military that can simultaneously control Western Europe, the Middle East, and East Asia. America’s military is not built to protect the homeland but to project power throughout nearly the entire world. Due to its hegemonic ambitions, it has spent an obscene amount of money on national security over the years and continues to do so. It spent $21 trillion on its military between just 9/11 and 2021 and another $1.7 trillion in 2022 and 2023, which accounts for most of its $34 trillion debt. In its quest to dominate the world, America maxed out its credit cards and the bills are starting to come due.

Alas, its corporate military interests now have such a strangle hold on its political economy that having an honest conversation about the desperate need to stand down and re-adjust the country’s spending and national security priorities is impossible. Instead of being honest about its dire finances, America’s elite wax on about silly ideas like modern monetary theory. Its rival political factions can only agree on massive spending packages that further add to its debt and their desire to dominate the world.  Due to their refusal to accept simple truths, America’s leaders have overextended themselves.

Having dismantled the factories that were the true source of their nation’s power, they no longer have the resources to control Eurasia from end to end. Not only have they overextended themselves, but they have gone against decades of very sensible policies that sought to prevent China and Russia from coming to together by doing everything in their power to unite these giants and their interior lines of communication. If Eurasia is the world island, America is firmly on the outside, looking in, and trying to dominate from the perimeter.

From both a financial and geopolitical perspective, America’s leaders are doing everything possible to accelerate their own demise. When historians look back at their fall, they will probably describe it as the greatest own goal in history. America is arguably the most geographically blessed political entity that has ever existed. It possesses formidable natural defenses that could have allowed it to spend a minimal amount on its military. Rather than use these blessings to strengthen themselves by educating their people and building world class infrastructure to maintain their considerable economic advantages, its leaders spent the past eighty years investing in war and hegemony. In doing so, they have neglected the true source of civilizational power, namely, economic, scientific, and industrial infrastructure and capabilities.

The only thing propping up this house of cards is the dollar, which is the currency of choice for people and governments throughout the globe. In their drive to control the world, America’s leaders are doing their best to change this. They have turned their control of the dollar and the international trading system that relies on it into a cudgel to punish their enemies and coerce any who might disobey their wishes. In doing so, they are incentivizing the rest of the world to find a substitute currency that cannot be controlled from Washington DC. The long-term economic consequences of using the dollar as a geopolitical weapon will ultimately be reduced demand that lessens its value.

Combined these factors will lead to a variety of woes like hyperinflation, exorbitant taxes, high interest rates, higher input costs, reduced investment, diminished public services, and insolvency. These will, in turn, lead to spiraling social and political chaos. By themselves, these developments would be enough to cause violence, but they are not the only trends to consider. At the same time its finances are collapsing, America will also be undergoing significant demographic changes that will only add to the tumult. By 2045, white people will no longer form the majority in America.  

Western societies have frequently featured overtly racist ideologies and discriminatory policies that violently oppressed people based on their faith, race, or ethnicity. The Inquisition, the various progroms against Jews culminating in the Holocaust, the Atlantic slave trade, the genocide perpetrated against Native Americans, America’s and South Africa’s histories as apartheid states, the internment of Japanese Americans during WW2, and Israeli apartheid all have their origins in the Western world’s bigoted and violently xenophobic cultures. These values have been an important component of the Western ethos for centuries and, as Gaza shows, still shape the perspectives of many Americans. Considering this history, it is not unfair to wonder how white people will react to having to share power as a minority, particularly since their declining numbers and power will be accompanied by significant economic upheaval.

As January 6th showed, there are already large swathes of white America who feel alienated and marginalized by the way their country is changing. As their share of the population shrinks, these feelings will only grow. That awful day may have marked the first violent coup attempt in America’s history, but it will not be the last.

Over the decades, America has trained millions of its men in the arts of subverting governments and organized violence. It has also made it easy for them to arm themselves. As the world’s preeminent merchant of death, America is flooded with weapons. There are over 400 million personal firearms floating around the country. According to the Washington Post, 20 million of them are AR15 style assault rifles. In addition to personal firearms, America is one of the world’s leading manufacturers of jet fighters, tanks, armored fighting vehicles, large caliber machine guns, rocket launchers, drones, and literally anything else needed to kill or maim human beings en masse. It features warehouses, factories, military bases, storage depots, and armories full of the tools needed to level places like Gaza. Each of its fifty states even has its own military.

Climate change will only make things worse. The increasing severity and frequency of large-scale natural disasters like wildfires, flooding, and exceptionally strong hurricanes and storms has already caused some insurance companies to abandon several particularly vulnerable states like Florida and Iowa. As the scale of these disasters grows, the costs and impact will too. The burden to rebuild and make the victims whole will ultimately fall to a federal government drowning in debt and therefore unable to adequately cope.

Predicting the exact fallout when these trends collide is obviously impossible. Nevertheless, it is possible to analyze this data, compare it to additional data from the historical record, and use this information to make logical inferences and extrapolations. A reasonable analysis of the macro-trends suggests large scale violence is a very real possibility within the next few decades and that America will soon find itself in serious trouble. Of course, “soon” is a relative term in the historical scheme of things. The Abbasid, Roman, and Ottoman Empires took centuries to fully collapse and be reborn. America seems poised to follow a similar path.  

It is certainly possible its leaders react to the collapse of the dollar by peacefully dismantling the security state they have built, thereby managing a soft landing for the end of Pax Americana. However, given the number of resources they have invested into war and death and the degree to which this has warped their minds, this is not a likely scenario. A society that empowers men like Congressman Thomas Massie, who sends holiday greeting cards showing his family armed with assault rifles, is unlikely to react rationally.

The more likely scenario is that the same people who stormed the Capitol blame this collapse on a “woke” Federal government and react by launching an insurgency that eventually grows into a civil war. They may not even wait for the dollar to collapse and could easily resort to violence if Donald Trump is imprisoned or the next time they refuse to admit they lost an election.  

These possibilities present America’s Muslims with impossible choices. Do we stay where we are not wanted and may not be safe, or do we return to the Muslim world and the hyenas and jackals who rule it?  We will not fare well in an America experiencing economic collapse and social unrest. As a visible minority that has always been viewed with hostility, we would be particularly vulnerable to violence and systemic abuse if the situation devolves into lawlessness or civil war. But for the reasons addressed in Part II, returning to our homelands is fraught with danger too. It will be up to each of us to consider our unique situations when deciding what path to take. Both are full of peril and risks.  

When making this choice, the author can only suggest that the skills and capital we have acquired during our stay in the West might be put to good use in those few Muslim countries like Turkey, Bosnia, Malaysia, or Indonesia that have more inclusive political, social, and economic systems. If we were to move to these countries in sufficient numbers, it is entirely possible we could have a positive impact like the one Crusaders returning from the Holy Land had on Europe so long ago. Their experiences in the more developed Muslim world changed their tastes and perspectives, sparking changes that eventually led to Europe’s Renaissance. There may come a day when America’s Muslims have no choice but to try and spark a similar transformation in their former homelands. Those Muslims who would prefer to avoid the anarchy and upheaval that is sure to accompany America’s looming implosion would do well to start planning for that day now.   

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What has the war in Gaza revealed about the world?

Part II: the Muslim world

This essay was first published here, by the Friday Times on July 6th, 2024.

Having discussed what truths the war in Gaza reveals about America, it is now time to consider what it has shown us about the Muslim world. Here, the lesson is simple and has been painfully obvious for a long time. The Muslim world is incredibly weak.

Not one of its 57 nations had the power to stop Israel from murdering Gaza’s defenseless people. Over 14,000 Palestinian children have died so far. Many were just babies or toddlers who were intentionally murdered in their homes as they slept because Israeli soldiers decided it was more cost effective to kill their fathers while they were asleep among their loved ones. Instead of trying to protect these children, nearly the entire Muslim world impotently watched as they were torn apart by Israeli and American bombs and missiles.

The Arab world’s reaction was particularly muted and cowardly. But the Arabs were hardly alone in standing aside while the IDF was busy massacring children. Muslim leaders across the world busied themselves issuing scathing press releases denouncing Israel’s crimes. Turkey, to its credit, even cut off trade ties. But most of them took no real action.

Those few who tried, like Iran and its allies, were immediately labeled “terrorists” and attacked. Since Oct. 7th, Israel and America have worked hard to prevent this conflict from “escalating” by bombing Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, Iraq, and Iran. Hundreds have been killed and the message sent: anyone who tries to help the Palestinians will suffer.  

Aside from the Houthis and Hezbollah, the entire Muslim world has been cowed into submission. Though the willingness of Yemen’s and Lebanon’s fighters to engage Israel’s far more powerful forces is certainly commendable, the sad truth is their arsenals are inferior in every way. They do not possess air defenses that can protect them from Israel’s deadly fleet of F35s and F15s. Nor do they possess fighter aircraft that can match them. As such, they are forced to cede control of the skies to their adversaries and suffer immensely as a result.

Their supporters in Iran possess a more potent arsenal; however, it is still qualitatively inferior to Israel’s in every way. Iran has a few 3rd and 4th generation fighters it purchased from Russia and China and has even managed to keep some of its vintage American gear working. But on their best days, none of them can match the lethality of Israel’s and America’s fighters. Similarly, its air defenses would quickly be overwhelmed by a determined Western led bombing campaign. Perhaps most consequential of all, Iran is highly vulnerable to cyber-attacks that could disable large chunks of its infrastructure in the event of a war.

Iran and its proxies suffer from the same weakness as every other Muslim nation. They cannot build the same sort of advanced weapons as their adversaries. Their economies and industrial bases are too backwards and underdeveloped. Many, like Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey have worked hard to close the gap in manufacturing and technological abilities. None have fully succeeded.

Iran has come a long way since the days it was forced to use human wave tactics to defend itself against Iraq’s forces. It has built an industrial base that can supply its military with moderately capable weapons like ballistic missiles and drones; however, its technological and manufacturing capabilities are still primitive in many ways. This has prevented it from building aircraft or air defense systems that can protect it. Even its vaunted drones are built from mostly imported parts. Its economy suffers from numerous structural defects, some imposed by the West, most self-inflicted and related to its corrupt and repressive government.  

Pakistan, as a nuclear power, is considered to have the most powerful military in the Muslim world but lacks the means to project power far beyond its borders. Its economy is hopelessly inefficient and most of its “factories” are used to assemble imported parts rather than build goods they can sell to the world. As a result, Pakistan developed neo-colonial relationships with America and then China to supply it with the arms it cannot build itself. Its forces still use several American made weapons, like the F16 fighter jet. Since Pakistan is dependent on America for the spare parts needed to maintain these aircraft, it could never take a strong stance against Israel for fear of being cut off from them. In fact, it is so wary of angering America it cannot even build a gas pipeline with Iran without first asking for permission.

Turkey is also one of the Muslim world’s most powerful states. It has a well-developed manufacturing base and a strong military. However, it must still import its most advanced weapons like the S-400 air defense system it purchased from Russia or the F35 fighters it was supposed to buy from America before being cut off due to the S-400 purchase. Despite years of trying, Turkey has been unable to build a jet with capabilities like the F35. Due to these constraints and the fact that many of its weapons require spare parts imported or licensed from America, Turkey also suffers from critical vulnerabilities that prevent it from meaningfully helping the Palestinians.

In addition to suffering from similar industrial and technological deficiencies, the conventional military forces of the Arab world are incompetent on the battlefield. Saudi Arabia, for example, is the fifth largest military spender in the world and possesses an array of deadly American weapons. Despite spending hundreds of billions to arm itself, the Saudi military is useless. It is entirely dependent on American and Pakistani mercenaries to function on a day-to-day basis and its officers have proven incapable of properly using their sophisticated American weaponry.

Saudi Arabia is, in many ways, representative of the rest of the Arab world, which has become a bastion of incompetence, cowardice, repression and regressive thought. Arab leaders, particularly those in the Gulf, are an anchor keeping the Muslim world stuck in place while slowly pulling it under the waves. Though some have implemented superficial social reforms, none have embraced the sort of political changes that could truly free their people. Instead, those who rule the Gulf have worked hard to destroy any trace of democracy in the region as evidenced by the significant roles they played in the coups that toppled Egypt’s and Tunisia’s democratic governments and even Sudan’s recent descent into civil war.  

Iran, Pakistan, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia are some of the most powerful Muslim nations and yet each suffers from similar weaknesses, to varying degrees, that have prevented them from developing the industrial and technological capabilities needed to build militaries that are not dependent on outside powers for support. Aside from Saudi Arabia, they have managed to build decent military industrial complexes capable of producing heavy weapons like tanks and artillery, but they are still incapable of building the most advanced weapons they need. For example, outside of Malaysia, no Muslim nations have the foundries needed to make the weapon most vital for modern warfare: microchips. Due to their technical deficiencies, Muslim societies are still hopelessly outgunned by the Western and Russian armies that have been invading them and massacring their people for centuries. As a result, they simply do not have the power to protect Gaza’s children. Which raises the question of why. Why have Muslims been so weak, for so long?

Like America, the Muslim world’s dysfunction can be traced to its relationship with the truth. In the Muslim world, the truth is forbidden. The tyrants who have ruled it for centuries refuse to allow their people to speak their minds about anything that might threaten their power, under penalty of death or jail. Even democratic Turkey features a stifling intellectual climate in which saying or tweeting something critical of its leaders can lead to jail time. By suppressing the truth, Muslim leaders have crippled the ability of their societies to evolve or have honest conversations about complicated issues.  A society that forbids people from expressing themselves will always be weak because it will always be ruled by dictators who rely on force instead of persuasion to sustain their power. When a society is ruled through force, its leaders’ only preoccupation will be doing whatever it takes to hold onto their power and the privileges and impunity that comes with it. As the Muslim world shows, this is the path to weakness, servitude, and slaughter.  

Muslims have been ruled by dictators for so long, they have lost sight of some fundamental truths. The first and most obvious: they will remain weak until they build governments designed to empower and educate their people, not oppress and control them. To do so, they must establish democratic and inclusive political systems based on the rule of law that guarantee freedom of expression. That is the surest path to nurturing the economic and technological development needed to build powerful militaries.

Inexplicably, some Muslims have argued democracy is not compatible with Islamic values. Scholars working for Iran’s Qajar dynasty went so far as to proclaim monarchies are the only type of government sanctioned by Islamic law. However, as discussed in more detail here, even an elementary understanding of Islamic history shows hereditary monarchies, like the one that rules Saudi Arabia today, are patently un-Islamic and that democracy is the only form of governance consistent with Islamic values.

The early Islamic period is referred to as the Rashidun era and corresponds to the reigns of the first four Caliphs to rule the Islamic world. Many Muslims believe the precedents established during this period represent the ideal towards which they should aspire, and that contemporary governments should be modeled after their example. Groups such as ISIS have even waged war to try and re-establish their own version of the Caliphate, while the Taliban claim to model their government after it. But they do not understand the defining characteristics of the government they idealize or the lessons they should learn from its example.

Though some of the details surrounding the appointment of the Rashidun are unclear, certain facts are not in dispute. Not one of Islam’s first four Caliphs used violence or the threat of violence to secure their reigns. They were chosen by building a consensus through dialogue between members of the community, including its women. Not one of them tried to pass power onto their son either. Instead, each left the choice of successor to the community or engaged it in the selection process when circumstances allowed.

The Caliphate may not have been a democratic system by modern standards, but it was a far cry from the dictatorships that dominate the Muslim world today. Caliphs were chosen after getting input from the community in Medina and they ruled by engaging with this same community to get its opinion regarding policy debates.

The only real question is how to apply these principles to modern-day realities considering the vast cultural, technological, and demographic changes that have taken place over the past fourteen centuries. The Muslim world is no longer comprised of a small elite ruling over masses of non-Muslims in distant lands. Instead, it has been separated into independent nations like Turkey and Iran populated by millions. Pakistan has over 240 million people, 97% of whom are Muslim but separated through myriad linguistic, ethnic, regional, and doctrinal differences. Engaging in dialogue or achieving consensus is a lot harder today than it was in the much smaller and homogenous community of Medina.

Groups like ISIS, the Taliban, and their friends in the Pakistani Taliban (TTP) believe the answer is simple: nothing changes. Not only do they believe nothing changes, but they have violently tried to stop their societies from making some necessary changes. They even blame the changes various Muslim societies tried to make for Europe’s conquest of the Muslim world, which is a laughable and completely insane argument that highlights the irrational nature of their ideas. It was the Muslim world’s inability to change that led to its conquest. And its continuing refusal to do so makes it incredibly weak today.

Despite the incoherence of these literalists, it should be obvious that it is the broad values and ideals of this era that must guide Muslims, not the minutiae of how they were implemented. The only practical way to emulate the values of the Rashidun era today, given the much larger populations and advances in communications technology, is to create democratic systems that give citizens the ability to choose their rulers and freely voice their opinions.

Muslims have bathed themselves in conservative ideologies that deny simple truths for too long. As a political philosophy, conservatism makes no sense because it is opposed to one of the most basic natural laws. As humans learn through the simple process of aging, change is an intrinsic part of life. Philosophies that deny this truth are incapable of forming coherent or moral ideologies because they are inherently illogical and, as a result, must resort to authoritarian methods to maintain power. Hence, the violent oppression instigated by men using religion and tradition as an excuse to stop their societies from evolving.

This religious repression is based on the political absurdities created by the dictators who have taken over the region. Enforcing religious orthodoxy goes hand in hand with suppressing political speech. The two reinforce each other and help to buttress the region’s dictators who have spent centuries obscuring the fact that the ideal Islamic government is, and always has been, a democratic one based on consent rather than force. Until Muslims accept these truths, they will remain too weak to prevent massacres like the one consuming Gaza. 

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What has the war in Gaza revealed about the world?

Part I: America

This essay was first published here, by the Friday Times on July 03, 2024.

Wars have a habit of revealing ugly truths about the world. The war in Gaza has been no different. This discussion will focus on what this war teaches us about America, the Muslim world, Muslims in America, and the “rules” based international system. Accordingly, it has been divided into four parts.

Since October 7th, the Israeli military has been on a rampage. It has killed at least 37,746 people, an estimated 70% of whom were civilians. Another 84,942 have been wounded while 20,000 Palestinian children have been made into orphans. Apartment buildings full of women and children have been crushed under the weight of 2,000-pound bombs, turning entire neighborhoods to dust and rubble. Mass graves dot much of the terrain, which consists of a hellish landscape of shelled out buildings. In short, Gaza has been turned into a wasteland.

This carnage is the result of the synergy between Israeli ingenuity and America’s military industrial complex. Armed with the deadliest weapons America has to offer, as well as its own locally made arms, Israel fields one of the most lethal, technologically advanced militaries in the world. Its arsenal contains state-of-the-art drones, strike fighters, artillery, and tanks. It also has cutting edge electronic warfare and signals intelligence capabilities, which are powered by the latest artificial intelligence software.

This software has been used to generate “kill lists” of over 37,000 targets for Israeli forces to attack even though it has a ten percent margin of error. This is merely consistent with the Israeli Defense Force’s (IDF) rules of engagement which allow it to kill 20 civilians for every low-level Hamas fighter or 100 for a high-level official. Due to this software and its lax rules of engagement, the IDF has launched thousands of attacks using American made weapons knowing with absolute certainty they would kill innocent women and children.

America’s leaders, who often claim to stand for a universal concept of human rights and an international system in which civilians are protected during times of war have not been silent. No, they have seen these crimes and spoken loudly in support of them. Nearly the entire spectrum of America’s political elite, from its right-wing blowhards like Lindsey Graham and Tom Cotton to its supposed progressives like President Biden and Richie Torres, have gone out of their way to justify and express their unequivocal support for Israel as it engages in the mass murder of tens of thousands of civilians. They have also worked hard to secure billions in funding and a steady flow of munitions to make sure it can keep the slaughter going.

When news of fresh crimes, like mass graves full of people with their hands tied behind their backs leaks out, they deny and deflect. When videos of Israeli snipers shooting an elderly grandmother or unarmed men waving a white flag emerge, they pretend not to see them. They remind us that the glaring evidence of these crimes comes from the Hamas run health ministry of Gaza and hope we will ignore the truth staring us in the face.

We are taught to question information received from Palestinians as inherently untrustworthy. But we must always believe Israel’s government. Never mind that it is run by Kahanists like Ben Gvir, who was convicted of terrorism, and Bezalel Smotrich, who believes Israeli Arabs should live under a set of “differentiated rights.” When this extremist government releases casualty figures claiming to have killed 12,000 Hamas fighters, we must take it as fact while ignoring that this number represents every adult male killed in Gaza. Instead of expressing outrage at the absurd premise that all Palestinian men are in Hamas, America’s leaders suspend logic for the sake of their allies.

But their greatest lie is describing Israel as a healthy, vibrant democracy when it is clearly an apartheid state by virtue of the different set of laws governing Palestinians and Jews in the West Bank and its de facto annexation of this territory. Western and Israeli human rights organizations like Amnesty InternationalHuman Rights Watch, and B’Tselem have all described it as such. Even the former head of Israel’s intelligence agency, the Mossad, finally admitted it. But America’s leaders cannot.

On a superficial level, their deceit stems from self-interest and their complicity in Israel’s crimes. To admit the truth would be to indict themselves. Aside from being complicit in the massacre committed these past eight months, they have provided $260 billion to fund and arm Israel over the decades. Without this support, the brutal military occupation and violence it has inflicted on the Palestinians would not have been possible. Admitting Israel is an apartheid state would be tantamount to admitting America supports a nation that is closer to Nazi Germany on the ideological spectrum, thus its leaders simply refuse to do so.

The inability of America’s leaders to be honest about Israel and its brutal war in Gaza shows that in America, the truth does not matter. It can be dispensed with when it does not match the preferred narrative no matter how much contradictory evidence gets live streamed to our phones by the brave Palestinian journalists Israel has been doing its best to murder. The truth has become a matter of perspective, not fact. It is a commodity that can be shaped to suit the preferences of consumers. Fox News for some, MSNBC for others.

Part of the reason America’s leaders lie so shamelessly is that they are never held to account by the “watchdog” media meant to act as a check on their power. In America, the media is part of the establishment and most journalists are little better than tribal propagandists cheering for their side as they demonize their adversaries and refuse to examine facts critically or impartially. Given the degree to which America’s media and leaders work together to suppress the truth, it is not surprising that TikTok, as one of the few sources of information they cannot control or twist, was banned with such overwhelming bipartisan support. As Sen. Mitt Romney explained with such refreshing honesty, this ban has far more to do with “widespread Palestinian advocacy on the app” than national security.

In their hubris and arrogance, America’s leaders ignore the obvious: those who are not guided by the truth are blind. They can neither see nor logically process simple facts. As it has buried itself in lies and contradictions, America has stopped making sense. The world’s supposed “arsenal of democracy” sells weapons to brutal dictators all over the world. Its leaders talk about freedom and democracy to justify invading other countries. Treasonous, orange buffoons rule the day. By refusing to embrace the truth, America is sowing the seeds for its own demise.  

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Why I hate talking about Israel and Palestine

This essay was first published here, by the Friday Times on Dec. 30, 2023.

The Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not terribly complicated. The difficulty in talking about this subject has nothing to do with its complexities and everything to do with the racism and gaslighting that dominates the conversation. Those who express pro-Palestinian sentiments are accused of being antisemiticterrorist sympathizers, or Hamas apologists and face the very real prospect of losing their jobs or being expelled from their schools. Just last week, an Arab-American teacher in Florida was fired from her job while her son was expelled from school on the basis that her comments on social media highlighting the staggering number of women and children murdered by Israel’s military were “hateful and incendiary.” To be clear, she did not praise Hamas or try to rationalize its violence. Her only crime was speaking out against a massacre.

The vitriol directed towards those advocating on behalf of Palestinians is enough, by itself, to prevent reasoned debate or silence those who would speak for Gaza’s children. But when the blatant gaslighting that has always surrounded this topic is added to the mix, things that should be easy, like agreeing on basic facts become impossible. For example, despite an abundance of clear and overwhelming evidence, many Americans refuse to admit Israel is an apartheid state. Instead, they ignore or castigate the conclusions of human rights organizations like Amnesty International, Human Rights Watch, and B’tselem that have all described it as one. Even the former head of Israel’s Mossad intelligence service, Tamir Pardo, was vilified then ignored for finally admitting the truth.

Many Americans, like David Ignatius, seem incapable of even using the word apartheid. Mr. Ignatius recently wrote a lengthy article chronicling what he described as “a pattern of Israeli domination and occasional abuse that makes daily life a humiliation for many Palestinians.” He discussed a laundry list of systemic and institutionalized practices, like the different colored license plates issued to Jewish settlers in the West Bank that allow them to bypass the IDF’s numerous checkpoints and the impunity with which they can attack Palestinians or destroy their property. Curiously, he never once used the word apartheid to describe these policies. Like many American pundits, Mr. Ignatius knows admitting the obvious truth that Israel is an apartheid state would fundamentally change the nature of this debate by making their support for it morally indefensible. Thus, most refuse to do so even when the ugly reality is staring them in the face.  

Unfortunately for its supporters, no amount of willful ignorance can obscure that Israel is, in fact, an apartheid state. The best way to show how is to start by defining the term. Apartheid was originally used to describe South Africa’s political system, which institutionalized the segregation of blacks and whites while violently discriminating against and marginalizing the black majority. It has since evolved into a shorthand way of describing any political system designed to disenfranchise or marginalize people based on their religion, race, or ethnicity. Based on this definition, America during the Jim Crow era was also an apartheid state. That segregation was officially limited to the south, affording African Americans in the north slightly more rights, does not change this fact. Similarly, the greater freedoms granted Arabs living in Israel Proper versus those in the West Bank does not absolve Israel of its guilt.

As Mr. Ignatius’ piece so poignantly illustrates, Israel is the governing authority in the West Bank in all but name. It has been since 1967. Its 56-year occupation and creeping colonization of this territory, and the different set of rules governing Jews and Arabs within it, has turned it into an apartheid state. Which means, by definition, Israel cannot be a democracy since it is impossible to be one while simultaneously maintaining a violent military occupation designed to subjugate and disenfranchise millions of people based on their ethnicity. It should be obvious that being a democracy and military occupier are mutually exclusive but the degree of gaslighting infused into this conversation prevents many Americans from admitting this self-evident truth. Instead, America’s leaders prefer to pretend the two-state solution is still viable and Israel has not already annexed the West Bank. This allows them to mask their guilt by talking about non-existent political processes rather than substantively addressing the oppression of the Palestinians.

When people will not even admit to basic facts, it becomes impossible to discuss more complicated issues, like whether Israel’s military is intentionally murdering civilians. Here, the fog of war makes knowing all the facts impossible. However, a pattern has begun to emerge that deserves greater scrutiny. Since the start of this war, Israel’s forces have murdered three hostages waving white flags as they tried to surrender who were clearly mis-identified as Palestinians, a good samaritan who intervened to stop a terrorist attack as he was kneeling and raising his hands who was also mistaken for an Arab, a mother and daughter sheltering in a church, a poet whose greatest offense appears to be sending insensitive tweets about the country bombing his home, 42 members of a single family as they huddled together in their home, an adorable three year old child named Reem, and an unprecedented number of journalists. In total, the IDF has slaughtered over 20,000 people. 70% of whom were women or children like Reem.

There have also been numerous videos showing IDF troops acting abhorrently as they desecrate places of worship, loot shops, or wantonly destroy property. One even showed them attacking an unarmed man, who was not being violent in any way. The sheer number of egregious incidents point to a pattern of abuse that makes recent reports of Israeli forces summarily executing unarmed civilians depressingly credible. Taken together, these examples suggest Israel’s soldiers are acting with the blessings, either implicit or explicit, of their superiors as they maliciously and intentionally murder civilians. The only other plausible explanations are that the IDF is suffering from systemic and widespread discipline issues, or its troops are incompetent and, as a result, keep accidentally attacking and killing civilians. Given its widely acknowledged reputation as a well-trained force, these seem highly unlikely.

Rather than have a difficult conversation about these crimes and America’s role in enabling them, we are confronted with more gaslighting and racism. In America, people like Florida state rep. Michelle Salzman who suggested the IDF should kill “all” Palestinians or Congressman Brian Mast who refused to distinguish between Hamas and Palestinian civilians shield Israel from criticism by shaping the debate to blame and dehumanize the victims. Absurd comparisons to the Nazis are made, past atrocities like dropping atomic bombs on cities full of emaciated women and children are cited as justification, and no one bats an eye.

Many even argue Hamas is solely to blame for Gaza’s dead. Under this line of reasoning, the men pulling the triggers or dropping the bombs bear no responsibility whatsoever for their actions. Hamas, as the catalyst, must shoulder it all. An interesting argument that would probably appeal to Hamas’ leaders more than anyone else since they could easily point to the obscene number of Palestinian children Israel has murdered over the years as justification for their crimes. Of course, holding Hamas and Israel to the same standards would make me a “terrorist sympathizer,” so I’ll segue to the conclusion instead.

Having an honest and logical conversation about Israel and Palestine is nearly impossible in America. The discussion is usually driven by overt racism and hypocritical, nonsensical arguments. Which is why I hate broaching the subject. Given its own ugly history as an apartheid state, America’s current support for Israeli apartheid is that much more repugnant and inexcusable. The degree to which the white majority bullies, disparages, or ignores people of color when we speak out against these injustices shows America has yet to fully exorcise its racist demons. Nevertheless, I have no choice but to speak up when children are being murdered by the thousands. I can only hope that justice might some day prevail, that America might someday evolve. I will certainly do my best to help it along by challenging the bigoted and silly arguments that have always surrounded this topic.

In the interim, Muslims must consider America’s entrenched Islamophobia and its inability to have a rational discussion about its violent policies in reference to its massive $886 billion military budget, its sale of extremely powerful weapons to countries like Israel and India, and its habit of attacking or invading Muslim nations. Combined, these data points show America is a threat to not just the Palestinians, but the entire Muslim world.

The danger will remain until Muslims develop the strength to protect themselves by implementing deep rooted reforms to create democratic governments based on the rule of law that empower their people by educating them and guaranteeing freedom of expression, religion, and association. That is the only way to stimulate the sort of socio-economic and technological development that can lead to improved military capabilities. Until Muslims free themselves from the tyrants and clerics who have ruled them for centuries, they will continue to fall victim to massacres like the one happening in Gaza right now.

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While Gaza burns, the Muslim world can only watch

This article was first published here by the Friday Times on October 20, 2023.

As the next round in the war between Israel and Hamas unfolds, a story that began with such a shocking twist has taken a very familiar turn. Israel has spent the past week bombing Gaza and Palestinian casualties are mounting by the minute. Israeli infantry and armor are massing for what promises to be a devastating invasion. America has sent two aircraft carrier battle groups to join the fray and its aircraft have already delivered munitions that will surely be used to murder more innocent Palestinians. The West has rallied behind Israel while threatening any within the Muslim world who might dare to interfere.

Many have already noted the similarities between these events and 9/11, mostly to justify Israel’s pending assault. But few have considered all the implications of this comparison. The War on Terror was an unmitigated disaster for America and genocidally devastating for the Muslim world. 4.5 million dead, millions more displaced, entire nations plunged into chaos all to see the Taliban stronger than ever. America suffered thousands of dead, tens of thousands more maimed for the rest of their lives, trillions in debt, and Trump. Both are still dealing with the fallout.

Israel’s invasion and occupation of Lebanon is equally instructive. Thousands of women and children were murdered while its forces suffered significant casualties during the course of their 18-year quagmire. And just as the War on Terror led to the rise of ISIS and its many offshoots, all Israel gained was a new, more potent adversary called Hezbollah.

Despite having the benefit of these cautionary tales, Israel is about to follow a similar path while America gleefully cheers it on. Thousands of women and children are going to suffer violent deaths as they are ripped apart by American and Israeli artillery shells, missiles, and bullets over the next few weeks and months. Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank, and possibly even Iran will burn too. All in the name of fighting evil, or so they’ll claim.

Israel’s desire to hunt Hamas down is understandable, but the simple fact is the only way to do that is to murder thousands of women and children. As Jonah Goldberg argued when castigating those who tried to defend Hamas’ actions, “no amount of context justifies killing babies.” Unfortunately, Mr. Golberg does not appear to apply his own logic to Israel’s actions. Like most Western commentators, he seems to think dropping thousands of pounds of explosives on Gaza’s densely packed neighborhoods and the babies they hold is justified within the context of Hamas’ attack. Even America’s supposedly left-wing, liberal President is out for blood as his administration angrily labeled those few members of Congress who dared to speak for sanity “repugnant.” Netanyahu will use Biden’s greenlight and the Western world’s unequivocal backing to unleash hell. And no one within the Muslim world will be able to stop it from happening.

Except Hamas. By surrendering. We all know this is unlikely to happen, nevertheless, it is still worthwhile to make a short plea in favor of this course of action. Though it is too early to gauge the long-term consequences of its attack, at a minimum it shows Israel’s attempts to marginalize and ignore the Palestinians via the Abraham Accords will never lead to real peace. They also prove that locking people in ghettos and enforcing a military blockade against them for 16 years will have terrible consequences. Hamas has achieved all it could have hoped for on the battlefield by highlighting these simple truths. The next step is to turn these battlefield gains into political gains and the only way to do that is to surrender and recognize Israel’s right to exist as a prelude to peace. Most importantly, doing so is also the only way to prevent the slaughter Israel is preparing.

In fact, the author suggested years ago that all Palestinians “surrender” by laying down their arms and waving white flags as they adopt widespread acts of civil disobedience and non-violent protest to demand equal rights within an undivided Israel. Given what’s about to transpire, the need to do so has never been more urgent. It should be obvious by now that terrorism is not the weapon of the weak. Terrorism is the weapon of the stupid. Terrorism just gives the men with the tanks, howitzers, and strike fighters an excuse to open fire. Non-violence is the only effective weapon the weak have.

For those who might take issue with the term terrorism, Hamas’s attack, though partially directed towards military targets, was primarily geared towards attacking civilians. Since terrorism is best defined as using violence against civilians to achieve a political purpose, these attacks most certainly qualify and must be condemned as such. That such actions are met with joy in some corners of the Muslim world only reinforces the arguments made below regarding its weakness. That anyone would celebrate the murder of a child, even tangentially, is abhorrent. There is no doubt Israel is a brutal apartheid state, and that Palestinians are within their rights to fight for their freedom. But intentionally targeting women and children is disgusting and should never be cheered. The fact that Western nations frequently drop thousand-pound bombs on targets they know to be full of women and children while describing these fatalities as mere “collateral damage” does not excuse similar barbarism on the part of Muslims.

Part of the reason I developed such unabashedly pro-Palestinian sympathies was precisely because of my belief that the IDF attacked and murdered children. I will never forget the video of Mohammad Al-Durrah murdered while sheltering behind his father. My heart broke for Mohammad Dief when I read that the IDF murdered his infant son, three-year-old daughter and wife in 2014. I can only imagine how enduring that kind of pain might impact someone. To see Hamas gunmen do the same has been sickening. One would think they would know better after suffering similarly brutal treatment at the hands of Israel’s military over the years. That burying their own innocent loved ones would have made them cherish all innocents that much more. But the sad fact is those who are abused tend to become abusers. The Nazis brutalized Jews who used those experiences to justify brutalizing Palestinians who responded by brutalizing Jews, and the cycle continues as Israel bombs apartments in Gaza. The only way out of this morass is to break the cycle, not repeat it. Which is why surrender and non-violent resistance are the only real options.

Since my advice has gone unheeded thus far and will likely get ignored again, it will also be necessary to consider the wider ramifications of the situation in Palestine for the Muslim world.  

What is happening in Palestine is a direct result of the same weakness that has consumed Muslim nations for centuries. This weakness was first made evident when Napoleon seized Egypt while the once mighty Ottoman Empire was forced to impotently look on in 1798. It was seen at work again when America conquered and occupied Iraq and Afghanistan at the beginning of this century. Once again, most of the Muslim world could do nothing but sit back and watch.

To understand the roots of this weakness, one must begin with the Muslim world’s governments. Centuries of rule by dictators has left most Muslim nations with repressive and non-responsive governments that stifle expression, innovation and growth. Most are run by people who secure their power through violence, not the consent of the governed. Their primary goal is to cling to power at all costs and enrich themselves, not help their societies prosper. This has made Muslim nations hopelessly weak and technologically backwards.

Due to these repressive political systems, they feature mostly unproductive economies, underdeveloped industrial bases, and awful schools. As a result, even “powerful” Muslim nations must import their most sophisticated arms. As Machiavelli noted centuries ago, dependence on outside powers for military support is a fatal weakness that hobbles rulers, rendering them more servant than ruler. But Muslim have been so bad at creating governments, schools, and private companies that can generate the capabilities required to field modern militaries, they have been forced to create such dependencies. The result: there are no Muslim nations that can protect the Palestinians, just like there were none who could lift Gaza’s siege these past 16 years. None of them have the strength to overtly defy the West. Or China, or even Russia. Muslims have yet to learn how to reconcile ancient beliefs with modern circumstances and the results speak for themselves in Gaza, Kashmir, Chechnya, the camps China has built for the Uighurs, Libya, Syria, Afghanistan, and far too many other places. 

Given the number of massacres the Muslim world has endured these past few centuries, the one that’s about to take place in Gaza will probably not spark any changes either. Muslim elites have accumulated too much power and refuse to share it. Which begs the question, what will it take? How many more atrocities must we watch before Muslims finally wake up? Sadly, no one has the answer to these questions.

Which is a pity because the solutions are obvious. Japan’s feudal elite figured it out with relative ease. South Korea took a more circuitous route but has also managed to modernize itself in record time. As these examples show, Muslim states must institute deep rooted reforms to create democratic governments based on the rule of law that invest in education and protect freedom of expression in all its forms so they can unleash the creative and economic potential of their people. They must also force their elites to play by the same set of rules as everyone else. Allowing the average citizen to thrive is the only way to generate the resources needed to build a military that is not dependent on an outside patron for support.

Aside from taking the steps needed to strengthen themselves individually, Muslim nations must also create organizations comparable to the EU and NATO that can bind them together for their mutual prosperity and protection. Doing so will require connecting to each other in as many ways as possible. Overlapping commercial, cultural, and political interests and linked infrastructure used to facilitate the large-scale movement of goods, people and ideas are the key to strong alliances.

The development of such an alliance, would not only stabilize and strengthen a large chunk of the Muslim world but also presents a path to achieving real peace with Israel. EU style integration predicated on justice for the Palestinians, not military competition, has always been the only logical path to regional stability and peace. Sadly, it will likely take a war on par with the devastation of WW2 before such ideas come to fruition.

Those Muslims who view events in Palestine as irrelevant to their lives or scoff at pan-Islamic sentiments should listen to some of Israel’s more ardent supporters. Presidential hopeful Niki Haley justified her support for Israel by arguing “God has blessed” it. Mike Pompeo, the former head of America’s CIA, argued Israel is not an “occupying nation” due to its “Biblical claim.” Make no mistake, there is a civilizational dynamic to this conflict. What’s happening in the Holy Land traces its roots to medieval disputes and religious affinity. It’s the latest round in the long running war between Islam and the West. One that has seen Western armies repeatedly invade and brutalize Muslim societies. Rather than skirt around this issue, Muslims need to start having honest conversations about the Western world’s pattern of attacking and trying to subjugate them and what they will need to do to protect themselves from further aggression.

The complete lack of empathy displayed by most Westerners for the plight of the Palestinians and their refusal to acknowledge Israel was created through violent conquest and ethnic cleansing show how little regard they have for the violence they have inflicted over the centuries. Which, as the coming weeks will show, means they are perfectly capable of committing such violence again. Aside from a few protests and penning impassioned essays highlighting the hypocrisy of those who grieve for dead children by murdering even more children, Muslims are still too weak to do anything but passively watch these horrors unfold, showing how little has changed over the centuries. Without serious, deep-rooted reforms, this will not be the last massacre we are forced to watch.

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America is at it again

This article was first published here by the Friday Times on August 16, 2023.

There have been whispers lately that the Biden Administration is trying to broker a deal to normalize relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel. In exchange for abandoning the Palestinians, America’s “values-based” President is rumored to be offering his military’s most advanced weapons while the Saudis are reputed to be angling for help building a “civilian” nuclear program and a defense pact. President Biden will surely claim this program is not intended to build nuclear weapons, but it is hard to conceive of any other reason a nation endowed with Saudi Arabia’s oil reserves would covet such technology. These developments provide yet another glimpse into the hypocritical and destructive role America has played in the region while proving its leaders have learned nothing after decades of committing similar blunders.

By trying to expand the Abraham Accords to Saudi Arabia, America is trying to foster a peace between dictators that ignores the underlying cause of conflict between Israel and the Muslim world, namely, the violent oppression of the Palestinians. The simple fact is these deals will never bring real peace to the region for the same reason Israel’s treaties with Egypt and Jordan failed to do so. Without a political agreement that protects the rights of the Palestinians, most Muslims will justifiably remain hostile towards Israel, preventing the establishment of the sort of deep-rooted ties that can lead to genuine peace. Despite the rhetoric about adequate compensation, there can be no doubt: this deal is meant to further marginalize and isolate the Palestinians, not help them.

At best, these accords may sweep the region’s problems under the rug for a time. But the most likely scenario is they will only make its problems worse by exacerbating its underlying issues. The primary significance of these accords is not that they will achieve a sustainable peace but how they prove once more that America has never been an honest broker between the Israelis and Palestinians. In their desperation to help Israel consolidate its de facto annexation of the West Bank, America’s leaders are willing to arm the Arab world’s despots with their most sophisticated weapons.

Saudi Arabia, for example, is governed by a violent monarchical dictatorship. Its war in Yemen has already killed 377,000 people. The Saudi royal family has built a repressive police state to enforce its rule and frequently murders or imprisons those who do nothing more than criticize it. It is not the sort of country America should be selling weapons to, particularly if those weapons create mushroom clouds. Despite these red flags, America has been Saudi Arabia’s primary arms dealer for decades. This deal, however, would take their relationship to a level reserved only for NATO allies. Strengthening Saudi Arabia’s dictatorship to such a degree not only betrays American values but will have a destabilizing and destructive impact on the region in many ways. It is an excellent example of the short-sighted and hypocritical thinking that has always characterized its approach to the region.

But nothing epitomizes American hypocrisy like its support for Israel. Despite the overwhelming evidence that Israel is an apartheid state, the majority of America’s political establishment refuses to admit it. Instead, they prefer to ignore the conclusions of venerable organizations like Humans Rights WatchAmnesty International, and B’Tselem that have all condemned Israel as a state in which the political and legal system is explicitly designed to empower Jews while violently disenfranchising and marginalizing Palestinians. Though the exact mechanisms may differ from the South African version, Israel’s political economy is designed with the same ends in mind. It is an apartheid state in every meaningful way, just like America was during the Jim Crow era. One that has established violent military control over millions of Palestinians while dispossessing them of their land and rights.

America has been its unabashed supporter and enabler since nearly the beginning. Its leaders laud Israeli “democracy” and send it almost 4 billion dollars a year to ensure its military superiority while ignoring the fact that being a healthy democracy and violent military occupier are mutually exclusive. Sort of like being progressive and supporting apartheid. These glaring inconsistencies aside, American politicians overwhelmingly declare their affection for Israel while vehemently denying its racist nature.

There will always be people who are incapable of admitting the truth about Israel just like there are still people in America who think it is appropriate to teach children slavery provided valuable job skills for black people. But the truth is obvious to anyone capable of putting their tribal instincts aside. What should be equally obvious is that apartheid in all its manifestations and variations is evil. America’s support for Israeli apartheid is especially repugnant given its own ugly history. One would think both Americans and Israelis would have learned by now that political systems designed to empower one group over another based purely on race, religion, or ethnicity are inherently immoral. Sadly, one would be mistaken.

President Biden may pretend to be an ally, but he is an apartheid denier who sees no contradiction between his claims to support equality in America and his willingness to ignore Israel’s crimes against the Palestinians. To his credit, he is not the worst of the bunch. Politicians like Richie Torres, Ron DeSantis and Niki Haley are not just apartheid deniers, but enthusiastic apartheid lovers who seem to take a perverse joy in the repression meted out to the Palestinians.

America’s support for Israeli apartheid and Arab autocracy vividly highlight why it has been such a destructive force in the region. Instead of supporting democracy and defending human rights, America’s policies strengthen the foundational causes of the region’s instability by supporting its authoritarian rulers. Its attempts to bring Israel and Saudi Arabia together are the culmination of a decades-long effort to “stabilize” the region by trampling on the values it claims to stand for.

The best thing America can do for the Middle East is leave it alone. Its sanctions against Iraq killed 576,000 children. According to Brown University, the War on Terror that followed claimed approximately 4.5 million more innocent souls. America has done enough. But despite its genocidal record, its leaders and people still implicitly believe America is exceptional and justified in its hegemonic pursuits. That George Bush is a war criminal is beyond their ability to comprehend.

Conversely, the best thing Saudi Arabia can do is end its neo-colonial relationship with America and learn to stand on its own. The Sauds are desperate for America’s help because, despite turning their nation into the world’s fifth biggest military spender, their armed forces are incompetent. Without the American mercenaries and arms dealers who run its day-to-day operations and supply its weapons, Saudi Arabia’s military would cease to function. This incompetence is a direct result of its repressive political and social systems. The refusal of Saudi leaders to meaningfully empower their people has prevented them from building a military capable of protecting their nation without the help of a foreign patron.

As Machiavelli noted centuries ago, this is the path to servitude, not power. In their desperation to hold on to power at all costs, Saudi leaders ignore the lessons of history and common sense. But this is a depressingly familiar story in the Muslim world, one that epitomizes the dysfunction that has gripped nearly all of it for too long. Despite centuries of conquest and instability, the Muslim world’s rulers refuse to change their ways or admit the obvious truth that creating democratic political systems is the first step to developing adequate military and technological capabilities in the modern age. As a result, they must sell themselves to the West (or Russia, or China or a combination thereof) to maintain their power.  

Nowhere is this more evident than the degree to which Muslim nations have abandoned the Palestinians in exchange for American support for their dictatorships. Collectively using the carrot of normalization could have convinced Israel to make peace with the Palestinians. But the region’s dictators have opted to negotiate individual deals, wasting the only leverage they have left while showing, yet again, how inept they are at doing anything other than cling to power.

Which means the Palestinians will need to stand up for themselves. The best way to do that is to learn from people who have been in similar predicaments. Gandhi, Mandela, and King taught the world how to fight injustice using non-violent, mass civil disobedience. Given their inability to secure their freedom through force of arms, the Palestinians would do well to remember this history. Armed struggle plays directly into the hands of the considerably more powerful IDF whereas adopting non-violent methods of civil disobedience on a massive scale would constitute the sort of indirect approach that would make Liddell Hart proud.

Between Gaza, Israel proper, and the West Bank, the Palestinians constitute a majority of the population between the river and the sea. A one state solution in which they are treated as equals has long been their surest path to freedom. If Israel truly is the democracy its supporters claim it is, they should have no problem fairly sharing power with the Palestinians according to transparent and equitable democratic principles. Of course, these demographic realities are exactly the reason most Israelis refuse to do so, even though their sprawling settlements have made a two-state solution impossible. Instead of creating a truly democratic society, they argue Israel must remain Jewish. In doing so, they are choosing apartheid without having the courage to admit it while simultaneously denying the realities that come with their choice to build their nation in the heart of the Arab world. Nevertheless, as the author already suggested years ago, peacefully forcing Israelis to decide if they would rather live in a Jewish state or a democratic one represents the Palestinians’ last, best option considering the lengths America is willing to go to convince the world to forget about them.

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The war in Gaza has put Western and Muslim hypocrisy on full display

Between all the propaganda and gaslighting, wars inevitably reveal the ugly truth about a society. The war in Gaza has been no different. We are now five weeks into Israel’s counterattack on Hamas. The IDF (Israel Defense Forces) has responded to the murder of over 1,400 Israelis by killing 11,078 Palestinians, 4,506 of whom were children. Israel’s military spokesman, Brig. Gen. Daniel Hagari, all but admitted these killings were intentional when he stated the IDF’s focus is on inflicting “damage and not on accuracy.” When confronted about the IDF’s habit of dropping bombs on targets it knows are full of civilians in relation to a strike that murdered an estimated 50 innocent people, his fellow IDF spokesperson, Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, unapologetically shrugged these deaths off as “the tragedy of war.” These statements are merely confirmation of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s promise that he would respond to Oct. 7th in a way that reverberates “for generations.” A promise made good when 42 members of the Saqallah family were killed by an Israeli airstrike. Three generations, ranging in age from 3 months to 77 years old, were murdered as they were taking shelter in their home.

Given these statements of intent and the indiscriminate devastation being visited upon Gaza, it is painfully obvious Israel is following the Dahiya Doctrine first articulated by former IDF chief of staff Gadi Eisenkot during Israel’s 2006 war with Hezbollah by intentionally murdering Palestinian civilians. At the least, it is guilty of acting with reckless disregard to the fact that its missile and artillery strikes are killing thousands of women and children. In either case, the IDF is committing a massacre.

One can only wonder where those who were so horrified by Hamas’ killing of women and children are now. After all, as Jonah Goldberg pointed out to those who tried to justify Hamas’ brutality by framing it as legitimate resistance to Israel’s 17-year siege of Gaza, “no amount of context justifies killing babies.” Inexplicably, Mr. Goldberg was too busy dissecting the history and significance of the term “settler colonial” with mind numbing detail to offer any outrage over Gaza’s dead babies.

But Mr. Goldberg is hardly the only American who does not care when Palestinian babies are murdered. When asked about the rising death toll in Gaza, President Biden dismissed them out of hand, preferring to question the accuracy of the figures instead of addressing the underlying issue.  His apathy, like Mr. Goldberg’s, is yet more proof that most Americans simply do not care when Palestinian children are murdered.

To their credit, at least Messrs. Goldberg and Biden are not blood thirsty sociopaths like Senator Lindsey Graham, Congressman Brian Mast, or Florida state representative Michelle Salzman. Graham does not believe there should be any limits on the number of women and children Israel should be allowed to murder in its quest to rid the world of Hamas’ evil, child killing members. Mast argued there are “no innocent Palestinian civilians.” While Salzman believes Israel should murder “all” Palestinians. 

Of course, none of this is surprising. Anyone who has not been in a coma these past thirty years already knows about America’s pattern of killing Arabs and Muslims and the mix of ambivalence and racist demonization that accompanies it. Its sanctions against Iraq killed an estimated 576,000 children. The War on Terror killed another 4.5 million people. Its direct support for Saudi Arabia’s war in Yemen added 377,000 more. The great majority of Americans did not care then, and they do not care now. To expect them to suddenly show interest in dead Palestinian, Arab, or Muslim babies at this point would be insane. 

The Western world’s blatant and overwhelming hypocrisy is certainly condemnable but adequately addressing this topic would take volumes while accomplishing very little. Instead of raging against these glaring double standards, I will simply point out that evil always leads to more evil. Even if it’s a delayed harvest, you reap what you sow, and America has sown death and despair throughout the globe.

As I explain here in more detail, these chickens are already coming home to roost. There is a direct correlation between the genocidal violence America has unleashed or enabled around the world and the mass shootings that are now a depressingly routine part of American life. These are a biproduct of being in a nearly continuous state of conflict for most of the past eighty years. They will continue to haunt Americans in their schools, restaurants, shopping centers, movie theaters, etc. until their country ends its militaristic policies and dismantles the weapons factories built to further them. 

Aside from enabling one lone wolf shooter after another, America’s hegemonic pursuits are also slowly draining a foundational part of its power – its wealth. No empire in history has been able to maintain an aggressive military posture for an extended period of time without eventually imploding. Much of America’s nearly 34 trillion dollar debt can be attributed to its military spending. The interest payments on this debt now stand at 659 billion a year and could climb to two trillion by the end of the decade. Eventually, the financial house of cards built to pay for its imperial ambitions will collapse, impoverishing millions in the process.

America’s obsession with global dominance is slowly destroying and bankrupting it. But since most Americans simply do not want to have this conversation, I’m not going to waste more time on the matter. I have already done my best to warn America that it is on the path to self-destruction several times.

Instead of wasting time trying to dissuade America from its genocidal policies, I prefer to focus on the party that bears the most responsibility for the slaughter in Gaza – the Muslim world. Societies are never conquered by outsiders until they have sufficiently rotted from within. Those who cheered the massacre of women and children on Oct. 7th and those who have been tearing down posters of these innocents are all a reflection of this rot. Much like the subject of Western hypocrisy, adequately addressing the roots of the dysfunction that has gripped Muslim societies these past many centuries would take volumes, and then some. The Muslim world is a mess, and it has been a mess for a long time.

Gaza’s woes are just an extreme example of the weakness and instability that is typical of most Muslim societies. Nearly the entire Muslim world features authoritarian and absolutist governments that preside over unproductive economies and stagnant intellectual climates. This has made it incredibly weak and prone to conquest. The massacre happening in Gaza right now is but the latest in a long line dating back to Napoleon, the Czars, and even the Reconquista.

Despite this history of conquest and instability, Muslim leaders refuse to implement the sort of reforms that could help them to finally modernize and stabilize their nations. Instead, they furiously cling to power, refusing to change. In the same way America’s leaders can only offer thoughts and prayers or make impotent demands for legislation they know will never pass after massacres like the one in Maine, the Muslim world’s leaders can only hold meetings and issue scathing press releases as they watch Gaza’s children die. They may pretend to care about the Palestinians, but their refusal to change their ways, the repression they inflict on their own people and their refusal to speak against China’s crimes against its Muslim populations suggests their concern is mostly for show or politics. Due to their inaction and hypocrisy, Muslims are too weak to challenge America’s fleet as it stands watch over another slaughter.

Both the need for reform and the solutions have been obvious for a long time. As explained here, secular democracy has always been the ideal form of Islamic government. Adopting inclusive, democratic forms of government based on the rule of law would significantly improve the Muslim world’s military abilities while paving the way for the sort of regional integration and mutual security arrangements that could finally stabilize it. But aside from a few flawed experiments like those in Turkey and Indonesia, most of the Muslim world’s nations refuse to adopt this model.

I have repeatedly tried to warn the Muslim world’s rulers they are on a dangerous path. I warned that “Israelis just elected a government that will murder thousands of Palestinians” when they first voted Netanyahu and his Kahanists allies to power. I even begged the Palestinians to surrender years ago because it was obvious they had lost the armed struggle for their own state.

As the slaughter happening right now shows, they should have listened. As such, I must renew my call for Hamas and the Palestinians to surrender. Given the IDF’s refusal to distinguish between Hamas and the women and children who live among them, it would be prudent for all Palestinians to wave white flags of surrender. Palestinians in the West Bank and Israel would do well to follow suite in solidarity with their brothers and sisters in Gaza. Peaceful, non-violent resistance is the only sane path left for them.

Unfortunately, my advice and warnings have gone unheeded so far. Which is a pity, because fires of the sort burning in Gaza tend to spread. Israel’s invasion of Gaza, even if it removes Hamas from power, will not lead to peace or even calm without a just political agreement with the Palestinians and dismantling the apartheid apparatus that has been built to subjugate them. Since Israel’s government is run by men incapable of making such an agreement, a repetition and expansion of the cycle of violence is almost certain.  The Muslim world’s rulers would do well to prepare for the chaos that is coming.

Having done my best to highlight the rank hypocrisy of both the Western and Muslim worlds, I must now express my profound shame as I watch my country enable yet another massacre of defenseless women and children while the Muslim world impotently looks on. I am ashamed to be an American. But I am even more ashamed of myself and my fellow Muslims. There are nearly 1.9 billion Muslims in the world and not one of us has the power to stop this evil. Our leaders and governments may bear most of the fault, but even if it’s a distorted view, they are still a reflection of the people and societies they rule over. Every single one of us bears responsibility for what is happening to Gaza. One can only wonder how many more massacres we will watch before we make the desperately needed changes to our societies that can finally give us the strength to stop them.

What America and Israel are doing is evil. Murdering more children will never lead to peace. There is no justification for what is being done to the people of Gaza. America is not the arsenal of democracy, as some like to pretend. It is the arsenal of dictators and apartheid and the world’s preeminent merchant of death. That much is obvious. But none of this would be happening if Muslims were not so unbelievably weak.  

Since our governments do not have the strength to take action, every one of us must speak out to stop this madness. The IDF beat back Hamas’ attack and captured many of its fighters while the rest retreated. The battle Hamas started on Oct. 7th is over. Israel’s military has re-established control of Gaza’s border, removing the threat of more attacks. What is happening now is not self-defense but revenge and collective punishment. Completely destroying Hamas, if it is even possible, would require destroying the entire Gaza strip and murdering tens or possibly even hundreds of thousands of women and children.

Those who remain silent are just as complicit as those depraved souls who rationalize these crimes by conflating Hamas with the Palestinian people or making disingenuous and grossly inaccurate comparisons with the Nazis. Unless Hamas has 100 panzer divisions along with a fleet of powerful aircraft and ships in its tunnels, the comparison is misguided, at best.  Its primary purpose is to help Israel’s leaders deflect calls to pursue a diplomatic solution. Israelis may find the idea of negotiating with Hamas repugnant and, given the thousands of children murdered these past few weeks, Hamas’ leaders probably feel the same way. Regardless, the only way to salvage anything worthwhile from this war is to use it as a path to real peace but that requires dialogue, not dropping thousands of pounds of explosives on residential areas. Otherwise, the cycle will only repeat itself with greater intensity.

Sadly, we live in a world where even our “liberal” leaders prefer war over peace. President Biden could have tried for a Camp David moment. Instead, he responded to a massacre by green lighting another massacre. Yet one more horrible decision from a man who chose Clarence Thomas over Anita Hill, supported the Iraq War, denied Israel was an apartheid state and considered giving Saudi Arabia nuclear technology in a misguided attempt to seek peace by marginalizing the Palestinians. Hopefully, the President’s actions will cost him the swing states of Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania during the next election, sparing the world from more of his awful decisions.

As a brown man in America, I have learned to be very careful when I share my thoughts. Particularly since there are people who think speaking up for children makes me a terrorist sympathizer or that calling Israel what it is – an apartheid state – makes me an antisemite. Despite these risks, I have no choice but to say something when children are murdered by American made bombs funded by my taxes.

I realize most Americans will never read these thoughts and those few who do will either vilify me or follow President Biden’s lead and dismiss them out of hand. Nevertheless, I will continue to remind everyone that men who hurt children are evil. Children are off-limits. Whether their parents are terrorists or settler colonialists is irrelevant. The ease with which so many rationalize or ignore the slaughter of children is disgusting and shameful. It may seem pointless but the only thing we can do is continue to speak for peace and sanity and answer hate with love. Be the change, as a wise person once advised. Violence is never the answer.

These events have also forced Muslims in the West to confront our place here yet again. There are millions of us who have grown up here, across multiple generations. We have in many ways become embedded into Western society and culture. But our increased numbers and influence did not matter. The leaders we voted for betrayed us and the alternative is even scarier. What are we to do?

I can only speak for myself, and I have decided to vote with my feet and leave. I do not counsel this lightly, particularly since the Muslim world is not a very attractive place either. In an ideal world, we could take the skills and capital we have acquired during our stay in the West and return to our homelands to stimulate a much needed renaissance. But the Muslim world is a repressive place and many of us would quickly run afoul of its stifling rules. The same blasphemy laws, political repression, and corrupt, backwards economies that make it so weak would make for a tough transition and risky investment.

But at some point, we may not have a choice. There are 20 million AR15 style assault rifles floating around America. When it finally collapses under the weight of its massive spending and debts, things are going to get ugly. If another war in the Middle East hastens these trends, Muslims will suffer for it. There is a dark side to Western civilization that is often ignored. Westerners have a history of committing brutal violence against those they consider inferior or find suspicious and those suspicions are often rooted in racial and religious bigotry. The Inquisition, the era of violent colonial conquests, the Holocaust, the reign of the KKK in the American south and South Africa’s and Israel’s embrace of apartheid are just a few examples of this history. To expect that Muslims will continue to prosper and remain safe given this pattern and America’s current trajectory is simply not realistic. As much as we have all grown to love our homes in the West, we must face the fact that we are not wanted and may not always be safe here. There will always be elements who view us as outsiders and these same elements own a lot of those AR 15s. Escape, especially when it is properly planned for, may be the best option. The real dilemma is figuring out the destination.

The author is a US Navy veteran and lawyer who usually writes about ways to modernize the Muslim world on his blog, www.mirrorsfortheprince.com

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America’s military withdrawal from the Muslim world is inevitable

Author’s note: I wrote most of this article over a year ago but have been unable to publish it until now. Instead of updating it, I decided to publish it as is because developments over the past year merely support my conclusions. For example, as discussed below, a year ago America’s debt was $20 trillion. It has now climbed to $28 trillion. Similarly, America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan and its refusal to get involved in the latest round of fighting between Israelis and Palestinians both support my central argument: America’s military withdrawal from the Muslim world is inevitable. If I were a betting man, I would wager that America’s military presence throughout the Middle East and North Africa will be a shell of what it is today 15-30 years from now:

INTRODUCTION

Due to a combination of political and economic factors as well as its shifting national security priorities, the US will eventually withdraw its military from the Muslim world. It is not a question of whether America will withdraw its forces, but of when and how. Economically, the financial shocks of the COVID-19 Pandemic combined with the high levels of debt held by the US government and America’s diminished manufacturing capacity will necessitate a sharp reduction in US government spending. Politically, America’s right wing wishes to withdraw from the Muslim world due to its isolationist and nationalist views while its left wing favors a withdrawal due to its anti-imperialist views. They may disagree on why and how, but neither end of America’s political spectrum wants to keep troops in the Muslim world. Finally, America’s military deployments to the Muslim world are no longer supported by pressing national security interests. The combined effect of these factors will inevitably lead to a withdrawal of American troops from this part of the world.

The United States has become the dominant military power in the Middle East and throughout much of the Islamic world. It currently has troops stationed in several Muslim countries such as Pakistan, Iraq, Syria, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Qatar, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia. Its naval forces control the Persian Gulf and its allies in Israel and NATO control the Mediterranean. It is the main arms supplier to many Muslim nations such as Jordan, Turkey, Egypt, and the UAE which gives the US significant leverage over these militaries while its allies in Europe supply weapons to many other Muslim states such as Morocco and Algeria. It also regularly conducts military operations and drone strikes throughout Africa as well as Yemen. Iran is the only Muslim country that actively refuses to accept this situation and, as a result, is subject to brutal economic sanctions and clandestine military operations. In other words, the United States and its allies have effective military control over a substantial portion of the Muslim world. The problem is that America’s robust military presence comes with a steep price tag that is becoming increasingly unaffordable[i].

In addition to the $6 trillion cost of America’s wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the constant deployment of troops to the Muslim world has forced its military planners to fund and arm a military that is much larger than would otherwise be needed. These extra funding requirements have been a feature of US defense budgets for decades. Even the official budgets for America’s military underestimate the true cost of its military spending because they do not include all the funds spent on nuclear weapons or intelligence activities[ii]. Although it is difficult to gauge how much of America’s military spending is tied directly to the Muslim world, given its extensive military infrastructure in this part of the world, the long duration of its presence, and large number of troops involved, it is reasonable to assume the true amount significantly exceeds the $6 trillion spent in Iraq and Afghanistan the past two decades.

WHY AMERICA HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO WITHDRAW FROM THE MUSLIM WORLD

ECONOMIC FACTORS:

America’s withdrawal will primarily be driven by its finances. The COVID-19 Pandemic has brought the unhealthy debt levels of the US government into focus once again; however, America’s debt has loomed over it for years. Rather than making the tough compromises necessary to devise balanced budgets, America’s leaders have resolved the age-old debate of guns versus butter by liberally borrowing money to ensure they lacked neither. At the same time, America’s business and political leaders have entered into trade agreements that resulted in severe reductions to its manufacturing capacity. The result has been skyrocketing levels of debt and unsustainable trade imbalances. The staggering amount of resources America pours into its military combined with the significant reductions to its manufacturing base[iii] have drained its economy and, together, pose one of the biggest threats to its continuing prosperity.[iv] At its height, American power was largely derived from its economic, political, and cultural dominance as well as its ability to apply overwhelming military force, as it did in WWI and WWII. Since the end of the Cold War, the US has reacted to its greater freedom of action as the sole remaining superpower by increasingly relying on military power to achieve foreign policy goals. This sustained dependence on military power combined with the gradual dismantling of America’s manufacturing base has diminished its older and more important power centers of their vitality, decreasing the real basis of American power. Over the long run, the continued reliance on military power that is no longer supported by a strong manufacturing base has placed a heavy burden on resources. It has also led to a disconnect between perceptions of American power by its policymaking elites versus the realities and limits of this power.

As a result of America’s weakened financial position, its policymakers must re-prioritize how its military resources are used. Calling for deep cuts to spending may strike some as overly alarmist given the economic growth the US experienced prior to the COVID-19 outbreak. But America’s strong economic growth since the end of the Great Recession has diverted attention from the fact that its massive military spending, particularly since 9/11, has seriously undermined its fiscal position since this spending was only made possible through deficit financing. As the debt burden from this spending grows, it will limit the ability of the US government to meet its spending obligations. As a result, US policymakers must confront serious decisions regarding how to use America’s resources before their policy options become substantially more constrained. American policymakers face two choices. They can proactively adjust their foreign policy goals and military commitments to manage the changes its weak finances require, or they can wait until its debt is so burdensome that they will have no choice but to drastically cut military spending. The former option provides some ability to manage this transition, the latter does not.

POLITICAL FACTORS

In addition to its financial concerns, political trends within the US will also compel a withdrawal from the Muslim world. The increasing prevalence of arguments that favor withdrawing troops from the Muslim world, regardless of the potential impact on the region, show that many segments of American society have no desire to maintain its presence in the region. For example, when discussing the Middle East, Doug Bandow suggests “Washington should accept instability in the region[v]” as part of its efforts to reduce troop levels. These sentiments illustrate that Americans are tired of their military involvement in the Muslim world. America’s right wing sees its involvement as an unnecessary waste of resources that would be better spent in the US. America’s left sees its involvement as immoral and a continuation of ineffective neo-colonial policies. As such, both left and right favor withdrawing American forces from the Muslim world. In fact, this may be one of the few topics that America’s divided political factions agree on. These political trends are a result of growing dissatisfaction with America’s policies and will add pressure to withdraw troops from the region.

THE MUSLIM WORLD IS NO LONGER A NATIONAL SECURITY PRIORITY

Troop levels in the Muslim world are no longer supported by pressing national security interests. US policies in the Middle East have largely been shaped by the confluence of interests of the defense industry, energy industry, Israel, and the dictators that rule much of the region. Together, these groups have prevented the rise of a Muslim hegemon capable of taking over America’s security responsibilities. Instead, they have pushed the US to become the primary hegemonic power in the region by arguing that 1) increased military spending and arms sales to foreign countries are healthy for the US economy 2) American military forces were necessary to ensure the US had access to energy supplies 3) American troops were necessary to protect Israel and 4) American troops were necessary to provide stability by providing security guarantees to many of the governments of the region. These reasons do not make sense. Because of policies meant to appease these interest groups, the US has spent trillions of dollars and much political and moral capital in pursuit of policies that are too expensive and counter to its long-term interests. The influence of these groups has led to policies that have allowed them to make hundreds of billions of dollars but at a cost of trillions of dollars to American taxpayers. Since each of the interest groups primarily responsible for the development of US policy acts according to its own logic, it will be necessary to analyze them individually.

THE NEED TO SUPPORT THE DEFENSE INDUSTRY

After entering WWII, the United States converted its massive civilian manufacturing base into one that could supply its military with the weapons and supplies needed to defeat the Axis powers anywhere in the world. The ability to harness its extraordinary industrial capabilities for military use propelled it towards victory but also laid the seeds for many of the problems confronting it today. The creation of an industrial complex geared exclusively towards military production created companies with a vested interest in continued military spending and the political and financial means to influence US government policy to ensure high levels of military spending. The defense industry has therefore benefited from US policies in the Muslim world by filling the larger orders for weapons and supplies that were necessary to maintain America’s presence in the region and by supplying weapons to the governments of the Muslim world allied to it.

High levels of military spending have typically been justified on the basis that this spending, even if high in absolute terms, is relatively small as a proportion of US GDP and that such spending boosts both manufacturing and scientific research within the US. Though there is merit to these arguments, these policy justifications are no longer sufficient to support high levels of military spending due to the large debt the US has accrued. The Congressional Budget Office estimates the US government’s debt will reach $20.3 trillion by the end of 2020[vi]. These figures will increase as further stimulus packages to fight the COVID-19 Pandemic are approved and tax revenue shrinks due to reduced economic activity. In light of the rapidly increasing debt held by the US, arguments that justify high levels of military spending or debt by highlighting their relationship to overall GDP levels are no longer persuasive because they ignore the reality of America’s worsening finances. Instead of relying on distorted statistics that argue high levels of debt and military spending are acceptable, as a matter of common sense, it should be obvious that continuing to add to an already bloated deficit will only make repairing America’s financial strength more difficult. As such, even if military spending continues to hover around 3% of GDP (a level some argue is affordable), this spending must be considered too high if it is paid for by more deficit financing when the debt will soon pass $20 trillion! Even if the US has the capacity to borrow more, doing so must be tied to pressing economic needs such as dealing with the COVID-19 Pandemic, not unnecessary military spending.

Again, it is difficult to gauge the percentage of US military spending directly attributable to the Muslim world, but it is much easier to track weapons sales by US companies to foreign nations. The US has consistently been the biggest exporter of weapons to the world and many of its sales have been directed towards governments in the Muslim world. Saudi Arabia is one of the biggest consumers of US weapons, accounting for a fifth of total US weapons sales for the five-year period ending in 2017. Half of America’s weapons sales during this period went to customers in the Middle East or North Africa[vii]. Weapons sales to Islamic nations are justified on the basis that they are necessary to support America’s allies and contribute to economic development.

The problem with this reasoning is that the allies in question are exceptionally incompetent when it comes to engaging in modern warfare[viii]. As a result, selling weapons to these nations does not make them more secure or better able to resist attack from another nation. As the Arab Spring showed, these weapons are primarily meant for use against the people that have been forced to obey the region’s many dictators. Weapons sales to these dictators adds to the instability of the Muslim world by providing its despots with the means to intimidate and murder their people. Supporting these dictators contributes to instability in the region by propping up rulers who cannot adequately protect their nations, reside over extremely weak political and economic institutions, and can only govern based on fear and violence. Though these sales may subsidize the costs of America’s military infrastructure, the long-term moral and political cost is too high to justify the economic gains. Instead of selling weapons to the dictators of the Muslim world, the US must develop policies that can allow it to disentangle itself from the region by focusing on trade that does not involve weapons used by rulers to murder their own people. Aside from the fact that profiting from the pain and suffering of others is morally and ethically disgusting, it also creates a reinforcing loop that forces the US to maintain its military presence in the region. Despite their massive weapons purchases, the region’s dictators are not strong enough to retain power without American support. America’s military presence and weapons sales to the region only reinforces its instability by supporting the dictators that are the primary cause of this instability.

ACCESS TO ENERGY SUPPLIES

The primary justification behind US policies towards the Islamic world has always been the need to secure access to energy supplies. This justification is not valid for two reasons.

The first is that the Muslim world is incentivized to sell its mineral resources to the West because of the laws of supply and demand. Most energy exporting Muslim countries have been unable to diversify their economies away from their dependence on selling oil and gas. As such, they rely on this revenue to pay for the government services they provide, and do not have the domestic demand necessary to consume their own supplies. As a result, Muslims are just as eager to sell oil to the US as the US is to buy it. The Arabs have only used their oil as a weapon once and the effect of their boycott was just as traumatic to their economies as it was to Western economies. Consequently, they have never used oil as a weapon again. Withdrawing American troops would not affect the ability of the US to import as much oil has it needs for its own consumption. Arguments that rationalize the use of military assets to secure access to these resources or that justify support for dictators on the basis that they can guarantee timely oil deliveries are not persuasive because they ignore the basic laws of economics that should govern such transactions. They also ignore the simple fact that a weak, authoritarian government will be just as incentivized to sell oil as a strong, democratic one.

The second reason the US does not need to maintain its military presence is that it is no longer as dependent on Middle Eastern energy supplies. The US has developed its own domestic energy production capabilities and diversified its oil suppliers away from Muslim producers to such a degree that in 2019 only 11% of its crude oil imports came from the Persian Gulf[ix]. In fact, over half of US crude oil imports now come from Canada and Mexico. The increased ability of the US to satisfy its energy needs through domestic production and diversified suppliers means that it no longer needs to waste military resources securing these energy supplies.

THE NEED TO PROTECT ISRAEL

Part of the reason the US has sought to prevent the rise of an Islamic hegemon is to ensure no power can threaten Israel. The logic underlying this policy does not hold up to scrutiny for two reasons. The first is that Israel has developed a sophisticated nuclear triad that would deter even a powerful Muslim nation. It is Israel’s nuclear capabilities, not American support, that act as the ultimate guarantor of its survival and independence. As such, US efforts to ensure no Islamic nation or political entity can develop enough power to threaten Israel are an unnecessary waste of resources. The second is that the lack of a Muslim hegemonic power has removed any pressure on Israel to compromise with the Palestinians under its control. Israel’s right wing may see this as a victory, but it will eventually turn into a pyrrhic one because it will either lead to the inclusion of millions of Palestinians into Israel as equal citizens (a result many Israelis do not want) or it will lead to the creation of a new Apartheid regime in the Middle East. Israel’s right seem intent on creating the latter scenario even though doing so will turn it and its supporters in the US into international pariahs and ensure that it remains involved in low level conflict in perpetuity.

Israel has overwhelmingly won its conflict with the Palestinians and its Arab neighbors. There is almost no prospect for the creation of a viable Palestinian state because Israel has resoundingly defeated the Palestinians politically and militarily. The last vestige of meaningful Palestinian resistance offered by Hamas cannot match Israel’s military capabilities. Its policy of continued resistance plays directly into the hands of right-wing Israelis who seem intent on creating small cantons of weak and divided Palestinians like the homelands created by the Apartheid regime in South Africa. Israelis have managed to create a state that has allowed its Jewish citizens to prosper while maintaining military control over millions of Palestinians who have been denied their basic rights while having to endure decades of military occupation. Despite their long running conflict, the Palestinians are still fragmented and weak and have been unable to develop military capabilities that could force Israel to change its policies. The political and diplomatic influence of the United States has neutralized attempts to gain international support and the political dynamics within the Middle East have deprived them of support from the surrounding Arab states. The result has been Israel’s complete subjugation and/or neutralization of the Palestinians living under its control or in surrounding territories. This victory may turn to defeat in the long run because it is so complete that it has incentivized Israel’s right-wing government to pursue policies that will allow this conflict to fester with no end in sight. Without a meaningful political solution that addresses the legitimate concerns of the Palestinians, Israel will be involved in low level conflict against an opponent that cannot defeat it but will have no incentive to stop fighting it either.

As explained above, a Muslim hegemonic power would not threaten the existence of Israel due to its formidable nuclear arsenal. It would; however, limit the ability of Israelis to attack, either overtly or clandestinely, its neighbors and it would force Israel to treat its Arab citizens with dignity and justice. Aside from not being contrary to American interests, such an outcome would greatly help them by finally creating the conditions that could lead to sustainable peace between Israelis and Palestinians. Israel has taken advantage of the lack of a Muslim hegemonic power to grind Palestinian opposition into the dirt and, in doing so, has ensured the region will suffer from low level violence and instability for the foreseeable future. Its complete and total military victory has empowered it to refuse even the smallest compromises with the Palestinians and has created a situation with no end in sight that necessitates continued American involvement in the region.

INFLUENCE OF RULERS WITHIN THE MUSLIM WORLD  

Many of the Muslim world’s governments expend a tremendous amount of resources in order to secure American support for their rule. For example, Saudi Arabia is estimated to have spent $60 million since 2016 to retain lobbyists, public relations firms, and fund think tanks[x] to maintain American support. This influence has ensured that criticism of Saudi Arabia’s brutal war in Yemen, abysmal human rights record, and financial support for extremist Muslims does not lead to a withdrawal of US support. In fact, the US has actively helped Saudi Arabia prosecute its war in Yemen despite the catastrophic effects on Yemen’s civilian population[xi]. Though considered the most proficient, the Saudi government is not the only authoritarian Muslim government to take advantage of America’s lobbying and PR firms. Nations such as Egypt,[xii] the UAE, and Qatar[xiii] also spend millions of dollars to make sure that America supports their interests.

This is problematic because the interests of these governments are often counter to the interests of the US. While arms sales to these nations may support economic activity within the US, their destabilizing effect also forces the US to maintain its costly military presence in the region. The Islamic world’s dictators and despots are the primary cause of its instability and weakness because of the inherently weak and violent nature of authoritarian and autocratic political institutions. These institutions have concentrated political and economic power in the hands of small groups of elites throughout the Muslim world that do not respect human rights, the rule of law, or freedom of expression. They use the machinery of the state to maintain their control and inflict violence on any citizens who oppose their rule even if that opposition is peaceful in nature. The rule of these elites has prevented Muslim nations from providing the government services necessary to support dynamic economies. It has also fueled the growth of extremist non-state actors that have reacted to the oppression and blatant theft of their governments by articulating violent ideologies that have plunged many Muslim nations into a state of chaos and anarchy which has, in turn, driven millions of Muslim refugees out of their homelands. American support for these rulers helps to keep the political institutions responsible for the Muslim world’s weakness in place and this weakness has directly led to the US military presence in the region. As such, it is in the long-term interests of the US to support the creation of democratic institutions in the Muslim world that can finally stabilize the region.

Some have looked at the actions of the US and seen a conspiracy to keep Muslims weak. The most likely explanation for America’s actions is much more mundane. The sad truth is that America’s politicians are for sale due to its corrupt (though technically legal) political system that incentivizes short term thinking focused on election cycles and obtaining the funds necessary to effectively contest these elections. The interest groups discussed above have manipulated America’s legislative process by exploiting these weaknesses to their own advantage. America’s policies towards the Muslim world are therefore best explained as resulting from the undue legislative influence of groups that have prioritized their own narrow self-interests over the long-term strategic interests of the US or the human suffering their actions cause. These groups have used their control of the legislative process to secure access to resources in a way that has subverted many of America’s basic ideals and principles and resulted in policies that are counterproductive and unsustainable. However, the arguments of those advocating for a continued American presence in the region can no longer outweigh the urgent need to fix America’s finances, the fact that so many Americans simply do not want to maintain its presence in the region, or the fact that most of the arguments used to rationalize current troop levels are not tied to national security needs.

Given these economic, political, and national security dynamics, the only real question is how and when America will withdraw its troops. Despite agreeing on the need to withdraw, the differing perspectives of its political factions will likely lead to conflict regarding the manner of America’s withdrawal. As such, while America’s withdrawal may be inevitable, the nature and timing of this withdrawal is uncertain. If the US does not adequately plan for and manage its withdrawal from the Islamic world, the results could be dire. Instead of following the same path they followed in Afghanistan, US policymakers must make an objective and realistic assessment of their policy options given the looming reduction in financial resources. They must stop engaging in the same arrogant behavior that prevented them from acknowledging the reality of their position in Afghanistan for so long. Turkey, Iran and Pakistan have already reacted to America’s inconsistent policies and hostility by developing close relationships with China. This is a foreshadow of what will happen if the US abandons the region without a plan in place.

CONCLUSION

The US must realize that due to its weakened finances and increasingly isolationist political trends, it can no longer continue as the dominant military power in the Muslim world. As such, it needs to develop and implement policies that will incentivize the creation of inclusive and pluralistic political and economic institutions and it needs to develop meaningful alliance relationships with these countries based on mutual respect rather than the traditional neo-colonial dynamic. The fundamentally imperial perspective of US policy makers must change; instead, they must treat the governments of the Islamic world as equal partners rather than clients to be bullied or cajoled. This will only be possible once these governments are run by competent officials that have been placed in power through the result of free, fair, and transparent democratic processes.     

America’s reluctance to protect Saudi oil facilities from Iran as well as its desire to withdraw from Syria, Iraq, and Afghanistan indicates its withdrawal is already under way. To better manage these changes, policies need to be clearly explained and agreed upon. Currently, America’s policies are a mix of hawkish rhetoric and haphazard military deployments that are not part of a clear strategy. America’s military leaders have explained their reduced commitment to the Middle East by referencing the need to focus on China but have yet to develop a new strategy that accounts for its lower importance and the smaller budgets likely to characterize military spending in the future. Instead, America’s military elite and their political and business allies have historically fought against serious cuts to military spending even as its debt was growing exponentially[xiv]. Given America’s high debt levels, massive military spending, the political infeasibility of raising taxes, and the refusal of its military and industrial elites to drastically reduce military spending, its long-term economic outlook was extremely precarious before the COVID-19 outbreak and is now particularly bleak. This is compounded by the fact that the aforementioned economic recovery was largely based on monetary manipulation (printing money, a.k.a., quantitative easing, borrowing money, and artificially keeping interest rates low to incentivize more borrowing) rather than strengthening America’s manufacturing base and overall fiscal position.

These pressing economic concerns combined with the growing belief among Americans across the political spectrum that American troops have no business in the Muslim world and its changing national security priorities will force it to withdraw from the Muslim world. The need to re-allocate resources to the Pacific, America’s energy independence, Israel’s dominant military capabilities, and the seemingly permanent instability of its Arab allies will outweigh the arguments traditionally used to justify its presence in the Islamic world. Having discussed the many factors that will lead to an American withdrawal from the Muslim world, the next step is to discuss the potential impact on the Muslim world and how Muslim nations should react to the coming changes. This discussion is available here.


[i] Bandow, Doug, “Want to Fix the Deficit? Bring Home the Troops,” Foreignpolicy.com, May 28, 2020,  https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/28/us-deficit-military-spending-budget-bring-home-troops/.

[ii] O’Hanlon, Michael, “Dollars at work: What defense spending means for the US economy.” Brookings Institute, Aug. 19, 2015, https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2015/08/19/dollars-at-work-what-defense-spending-means-for-the-u-s-economy/.

[iii] “Manufacturing is now Smallest Share of US economy in 72 years,” Bloomberg, Oct. 29, 2019, https://www.industryweek.com/the-economy/article/22028495/manufacturing-is-now-smallest-share-of-us-economy-in-72-years.

[iv] This sentiment is partially shared by former Secretary of Defense James Mattis and former Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mullen who also see America’s debt as a threat to its national security. See: Kazda, Adam, “Military Spending: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly,” Pursuit, June 19, 2018, https://www.ourpursuit.com/military-spending-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/.

[v] Bandow, Doug, “Want to Fix the Deficit? Bring Home the Troops,” Foreignpolicy.com, May 28, 2020,  https://foreignpolicy.com/2020/05/28/us-deficit-military-spending-budget-bring-home-troops/

[vi] ”The National Debt Explained,” Investopedia, accessed October 9, 2020, https://www.investopedia.com/updates/usa-national-debt/.

[vii] Ivanova, Irina, “Saudi Arabia is America’s No. 1 weapons customer.” CBSNEWS.com, October 12, 2018, https://www.cbsnews.com/news/saudi-arabia-is-the-top-buyer-of-u-s-weapons/.

[viii] For a more detailed discussion of the performance of various Arab militaries since WWII see: Pollack, Kenneth, Armies of Sand, (New York: Oxford University Press, 2019).

[ix] “How much petroleum does the United Sates import and export?” U.S. Energy Information Administration, accessed on Oct. 9, 2020, https://www.eia.gov/tools/faqs/faq.php?id=727&t=6  and “US energy facts explained,” U.S. Energy Information Administration, accessed on Oct. 9 2020, https://www.eia.gov/energyexplained/us-energy-facts/.

[x] Meyer, Theodoric and Woellert, Lorraine and Levine, Marrianne, “Diplomatic crisis spotlights Saudi Arabia’s spending in Washington.” Politico, Oct. 16, 2018, https://www.politico.com/story/2018/10/16/saudi-arabia-spending-washington-909882. Massoglia, Anna, “Saudi Arabia ramped up multi-million foreign influence operation after Khashoggi’s death.” Opensecrets.org, Oct. 2, 1019, https://www.opensecrets.org/news/2019/10/saudi-arabia-ramped-up-foreign-influence-after-khashoggi/.

[xi] Bazzi, Mohamad, “The United States Could End the War in Yemen if it Wanted to,” The Atlantic, Sept. 30 2018, https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2018/09/iran-yemen-saudi-arabia/571465/

[xii] Schapiro, Avi, “Egypt’s Best Friends in D.C,” The Atlantic, July 8, 2017,

https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2017/07/egypt-lobbying-sisi-trump-muslim-brotherhood/532227/

[xiii] Lardner, Richard, “Qatar, UAE spend heavily on lobbyists amid a war of words,” AP news, March 30, 2018,

https://apnews.com/b2d5003280e343a88985d784e9060586/Qatar,-UAE-spend-heavily-on-lobbyists-amid-a-war-of-words

[xiv] Kazda, Adam, ”Military Spending: The Good, the Bad and the Ugly,“ Pursuit, June 19, 2018 https://www.ourpursuit.com/military-spending-the-good-the-bad-and-the-ugly/.

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