President Biden’s decision not to seek reelection was particularly validating for me. This development is consistent with one of the subplots in my forthcoming novel, How the Assassination of Donald Rumsfeld led to the fall of the Milky Way. It is a work of science fiction involving wormholes and time travel that mostly functions as a parable to show why the Muslim world has been so weak for so long. The main protagonist from Part I convinces himself to enlist in the US Space Force in the year 2025, in part, because the White House is occupied by Gavin Newsome, who replaces Biden after he unexpectedly drops out of the race shortly before the election. The character is an Iraqi refugee who grew up in the suburbs of Maryland and has no desire to serve under a Commander and Chief who supports apartheid Israel and its violence against the Palestinians. I wrote this scene in 2022 in reference to one of Israel’s many other violent attacks on Gaza.
This prediction is one of several I have made since I began my novels and blog, www.mirrorsfortheprince.com.
For example, over the years I have made repeated calls for the Palestinians to adopt non-violent means of resistance to Israel’s apartheid regime. On Nov. 11, 2020, I even suggested “it is time for the Palestinians to surrender.” My calls for non-violence were based on a clear-eyed diagnosis of the dynamics driving this conflict wherein the Palestinians are hopelessly outgunned by people willing to slaughter innocent women and children.
Given recent events in Gaza, my admonition that “armed struggle plays directly into the hands of the considerably more powerful IDF” has proven depressingly prescient. Although the numerous reports of Israeli soldiers shooting unarmed people waving white flags have certainly given me pause, I still believe following my advice to wave white flags of surrender en masse would have prevented much of the bloodshed witnessed since Oct. 7th.
I also wrote “Israelis just elected a government that will murder thousands of Palestinian civilians” ten months before its massacre in Gaza on Dec. 5th 2022 and that “when the inevitable happens, most Americans will talk about how “complicated” this conflict is while our government continues to supply Israel with the weapons and funding needed to continue the slaughter.” I further argued, “Israel’s new government is crazy and will very likely end up being genocidal” in that same piece. Here, it was obvious the moment Israel’s extremist government was elected that it would do everything in its power to goad the Palestinians into responding and then use their response as an excuse to unleash horrific violence.
Similarly, I argued the August before Hamas’ attack that efforts to bring Saudi Arabia into the Abraham Accords would never lead to real peace because marginalizing the Palestinians would only make the region’s “problems worse by exacerbating its underlying issues.” Foreign Affairs Magazine published a piece that mostly agreed with my analysis. It just took them eleven months and the war in Gaza to see what was obvious to me much earlier (https://www.foreignaffairs.com/israel/dangerous-push-israeli-saudi-normalization).
My analysis regarding areas outside Palestine has proven equally accurate. On Nov. 17, 2020, I argued the Afghan Republic’s dependence on American military support was a critical vulnerability that would lead to “the development of an entirely new government in Afghanistan that, at best, will have to share power with the Taliban in the near future” eight months before the Taliban marched into Kabul.
On Oct. 20, 2022, when America’s leaders and foreign policy establishment were up in arms about Saudi Arabia’s decision to drive oil prices higher, I mocked the idea that their anger portended a long term shift as some other analysts were suggesting. Instead, I argued this episode was just another bump in their often bumpy relationship that would soon be “glossed over.” The rumors these nations are currently negotiating a long-term security agreement that may involve the transfer of nuclear technology shows my analysis was spot on again.
Even the anti-Muslim riots that recently shook the UK validate the concerns raised in this piece about the dangers Muslims in America face. The only difference: America’s right-wing nuts are armed with AR-15s, not knives.
Admittedly, forecasting geopolitical developments is more art than science since predicting the exact fallout when political, social, military, and economic trends collide is obviously impossible. It is possible, however, to analyze data, compare it to additional data from the historical record, and use this information to make logical inferences and extrapolations.
Even in a fictional setting written several years ago, it seemed clear Biden’s age would force him to step aside. The difficulty was not in predicting he would be unable to run again but in deciding on his successor. I chose Gavin Newsome because I believed America was too racist and sexist to support a candidate like Kamala Harris. That same scene also forecast Ron DeSantis as the Republican nominee because the idea anyone could support Trump for President again after Jan. 6th seemed beyond the pale.
Similarly, I never imagined Putin would be dumb enough to hold on in Ukraine for this long. It was obvious within the first few months of this war that he had marched his forces into an unwinnable quagmire that could easily lead to the disintegration of the Russian Federation. I still stand by that conclusion, but I underestimated Putin’s willingness to double down on a losing bet and Russia’s ability to withstand western sanction and rebuild its forces. Nevertheless, Putin’s stubbornness over Ukraine will likely have a similar impact as the failed Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, though it may take another decade or so before we see the results.
Speaking of forecasts, I will add one more for the record. Donald Trump will fire and replace JD Vance before the election, probably shortly after the Democratic Convention in Chicago. Vance was an awful choice to begin with since he did not expand Trump’s appeal in any way and he has acquitted himself poorly on the campaign trail. Realizing he needs a spark and refusing to accept any blame himself, Trump will go back to his reality TV show roots by making the unprecedented decision to fire his running mate so he can replace him with either Tim Scott or Niki Haley.
My repeated ability to accurately forecast world events suggests the underlying analysis driving these observations is sound, which should worry people in America and the Muslim world. As I have stated many times, America is headed for disaster. A reasonable analysis of the macro-trends suggests economic upheaval and large-scale violence are very real possibilities within the next few decades. America today reminds me of Prof. Kennedy’s admonition that “a large military establishment may, like a great monument, look imposing to the impressionable observer; but if it is not resting upon a firm foundation (in this case, a productive national economy), it runs the risk of a future collapse.”
America is headed for the same abyss that trapped the Muslim world centuries ago since it is now controlled by military industrialists and elites who can only thrive when it is at war. As the Ottomans once learned, this is the path to self-destruction.
Unfortunately, my warnings have gone unheeded so far. I do not expect these words will convince anyone either. But as a lawyer, I understand the importance of keeping a record. As such, this piece is intended to memorialize yet one more of my accurate predictions since Part I will probably not be ready for publication before the election in November. At the least, I hope these thoughts will be of interest to those studying us many years from now. But that will probably depend on the accuracy of my other longer-term predictions.
