The pause in hostilities between India and Pakistan provides a good opportunity to discuss the latest round of violence between these old foes. Over a period of several days, South Asia’s nuclear armed giants engaged in aerial dog fights involving over a hundred aircraft, large scale artillery duels, missile barrages, and swarming drone attacks. Dozens were killed on both sides of the border. Until the ceasefire, things appeared to be spiraling out of control.
The fog of war hangs particularly thick over this conflict due to the determination of both sides to win the information war and declare victory, making it difficult to accurately assess the damage. Given the tribal nature of the modern media landscape and the way governments control the flow of information, finding reliable sources to corroborate the claims from both sides has been difficult. But preliminary reports suggest Pakistan gave India a bloody nose it will not soon forget. Aside from bringing down anywhere from 2-5 advanced Indian fighters, including at least one of its vaunted French made Rafales, Pakistan appears to have successfully attacked multiple targets along the Line of Control (LOC) as well as several Indian air bases and military sites.
Pakistan’s tenacious response to India’s unprecedented attacks demonstrated it still has the capacity to protect itself from its much larger adversary despite the latter’s extensive efforts to modernize its military. Pakistan’s combination of tactical prowess on the battlefield, deft diplomatic maneuvering, and ability to counter India’s narrative allowed it to successfully blunt its neighbor’s aggressive behavior.
India’s conduct, on the other hand, was characterized by incompetence and miscalculations from start to finish. India tried to build its case for war by copying Israel’s playbook. However, its attempts to portray itself as an innocent victim while ignoring its own malign activities in Baluchistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa failed for two crucial reasons. One, no one wants a nuclear war. And two, the average Westerner cares about dead Hindus about as much as they care about dead Muslims. Which is to say, not at all. Aside from Israel, none of India’s friends supported its war mongering.
Blaming Pakistan for the attack in Pahalgam without a shred of evidence could not hide the fact that its security forces, which consist of roughly 500,000 troops in Kashmir, were unable to prevent a horrific terrorist attack. There is one Indian solider in Kashmir for every 20 citizens. Despite being the most militarized state in the world, its forces have failed to impose any semblance of security in the restive territory. Of course, the nature of occupation lends itself to such failures. India’s military presence is the root of the problem so even a million crack troops could not have prevented such an attack. In fact, the more troops India pours into Kashmir, the more likely it is to experience similar violence. It is a universal truth that repression always leads to resistance. But India’s leaders refuse to acknowledge this simple fact, which merely reinforces the argument they are grossly and hopelessly incompetent.
Their misrule and heavy handed tactics, which involve the use of arbitrary arrests, torture, extra-judicial murder, systematic rape, and even demolishing the family homes of those suspected of resisting their occupation have created the perfect conditions for violence. The decision to change the status quo in Kashmir in 2019 only made things worse but no matter how much death and despair their policies cause, India’s leaders refuse to change course. Instead of admitting the self-evident truths that most Kashmiris have no desire to remain a part of India and that a true democracy would allow them to vote on their fates, they believe repression and violence will somehow lead to peace and stability.
Sadly, their incoherent ideas and policies are not limited to Kashmir. They also openly discuss dismembering Pakistan as part of their dream of establishing Hindu hegemony over the entire Subcontinent. They even built a map of a united Subcontinent into their new parliament building to symbolize this dream. In the words of one analyst, India’s leaders are beholden to “a Hindu nationalist agenda, which has for decades projected itself as militaristic, masculine and modelled on European fascist movements” and “seeks to mark Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir as its territory.” In other words, India is ruled by fanatical extremists who have no interest in peace, making them both incompetent and dangerous.
These traits were on full display with the ill-conceived and poorly executed “Operation Sindoor” which consisted of launching missiles from aircraft loitering in Indian airspace at targets in Pakistan described as “terrorist infrastructure.” They turned out to be mostly mosques and seminaries associated with people who may have fought in Kashmir decades ago. In yet another sign of Israel’s growing influence, India murdered innocent women and children as they slept in their homes because they were related to its enemies.
But their missile attack was not the end of their aggression. Likely stinging from the loss of their aircraft, India’s leaders appear to have made an emotionally charged decision to expand their operation. The next morning, they sent swarms of drones into Pakistan to try and destroy its air defense network. The inference that this was an impromptu decision is based on the fact that one typically attacks an enemy’s air defenses before launching an air attack, not after. Regardless, the great majority of India’s Israeli made drones were promptly shot down – which is no easy feat and speaks to a well designed and multi-layered air defense network operating at a high level.
Pakistan responded to India’s aggression by attacking the air bases and facilities used to launch and arm the offending aircraft as well as the air defenses used to protect them. Again, it is difficult to accurately gauge the extent of the damage but considering the speed with which India sought America’s help to obtain a ceasefire and the manner in which this contradicts its long standing policy of treating Kashmir as a purely bilateral issue, it is reasonable to assume the damage was significant and extensive. The language emanating from the White House regarding multilateral peace talks, which has always been anathema to India’s leaders, supports this same inference since India presumably agreed to such measures in order to secure the ceasefire.
In sum, the incompetence of India’s leaders created the conditions that led to the Pahalgam terrorist attack and it led to the implementation of a poorly conceived plan to attack its nuclear armed neighbor. India’s military planners relied on dated intelligence and ended up killing innocent women and children for no military gain whatsoever, all to score political points with the BJP’s rabid base.
Despite taking South Asia to the brink of nuclear annihilation for political gain, India’s Prime Minister Modi has not changed his tune. He has already threatened to attack Pakistan again should his brutish policies lead to more violence in Kashmir. His rhetoric should not be taken lightly, particularly when viewed within the context of last week’s violence, the “surgical strikes” he launched in 2016 and the Balakot incident from 2019. This pattern is consistent with arguments the author has made repeatedly over the years that India will only grow more aggressive and unhinged as its arsenal fills with advanced Western weapons.
France’s Rafales may have dominated the headlines, but India’s most important partners are America and Israel. Both nations have sold it billions in advanced weaponry and will continue to do so over the next few years, adding more fuel to the fire. Without these weapons and support, India would never have initiated such an aggressive operation against Pakistan. As such, each bears responsibility for the mayhem caused by India’s reckless behavior.
America may have played the part of peacemaker this time, but make no mistake – it is no friend to Pakistan. The indifference displayed by America’s leaders during the early stages of India’s attack was most likely because they did not care that India was attacking Pakistan even though there was a significant probability of inflicting heavy damage and casualties. It was not until Pakistan parried India’s attack and then responded with its own that they became interested in peace.
As the carnage and genocidal massacres inflicted upon Gaza show, America is perfectly capable of enabling its allies to commit extreme levels of violence. And India is clearly taking notes from its messianic friends in Israel, which suggests its forces will not hesitate to commit similar atrocities if given the opportunity.
Adding to the danger and the theme of ideologically induced incompetence – India’s leaders have maintained their suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty while taking steps towards developing the ability to divert the waters that feed into Pakistan. As Pakistani Prime Minister Sharif accurately noted, this constitutes an “act of war” that will inevitably force Pakistan into an impossible situation.
Between India’s plans to cut off Pakistan’s water supplies and Mr. Modi’s threats, it is safe to say this fight is far from over. Pakistan may have won this round but it must immediately begin preparing for the next one. Aside from making short term adjustments to recalibrate its target lists, firing solutions, and air defenses to prevent the further penetration of Indian missiles, it must also take the long term steps needed to guarantee its freedom and prosperity in the face of India’s growing power.
With respect to the former goal, the next time India shows signs of preparing to attack Pakistan, one might suggest looking to Israel’s playbook from 1967 which shows it is far easier to win an air war when the enemy’s planes are still on the ground. The problem is that in the space age, achieving the necessary degree of surprise would likely require advanced cyber warfare and anti-satellite capabilities to disable the enemy’s command, control, and communications nodes as well as the ability to deliver powerful munitions with pinpoint accuracy from a great distance across dozens of air bases and it is unlikely Pakistan, by itself, possesses all these capabilities. As a more feasible alternative, it may behoove Pakistan to change its rules of engagement so that its fighters are authorized to launch their missiles before India’s jets can release their payloads, instead of adopting a purely defensive posture.
With respect to the latter goal, the author has already made numerous arguments regarding the desperate need to implement political and social reforms designed to ensure Pakistan can defend itself over the long run. So we will not touch on these again except to say Pakistan’s leaders must not allow this victory to lull themselves into a false sense of security.
Despite the successes of the past week, India still represents an existential threat to the safety and prosperity of all Pakistanis. One bloody nose will not be enough to dissuade it from its current path of militarism. Even if India’s leaders wanted to change course, the jingoistic right wing media echo chamber they have created will never allow them to do so.
The threat of Indian aggression will remain so long as its forces occupy Kashmir and its leaders hold delusional fantasies about establishing Indian hegemony over the entire Subcontinent. India’s leaders have proven they are simply too fanatical and arrogant to works towards a realistic political solution that can bring peace to the Subcontinent. Pakistan must prepare accordingly.