I once asked a relative to review an article I wrote about how the Muslim world should react to America’s looming military withdrawal. It is available here, if you are interested. He compared my proposal for an alliance between Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey to the quest to develop nuclear fusion as a way of wryly highlighting the lofty and implausible nature of my argument. At first, I interpreted this statement negatively because I thought it meant my ideas were unattainable. I have since realized the comparison was a compliment, even if it was not intended as one.

Nuclear fusion may be a daydream today, but it has the capacity to fundamentally change how we harness and use energy. Similarly, the development of a new Muslim political entity comprised of Pakistan, Afghanistan, Iran, and Turkey (P.A.I.T.) is also a daydream that, if realized, could fundamentally alter the political and economic dynamics of the entire world by finally stabilizing one of its least stable regions. One that happens to connect India, Africa, China, Russia, and Europe. Geography dictates that an unstable Muslim world has the capacity to sow chaos throughout all these regions whereas a stable one has the capacity to serve as a bridge between them. Trying to develop nuclear fusion may seem like an impractical and difficult goal but given the potential payoff, it is well worth the effort.

Obviously, a complex project like building an entirely new entity out of four countries that must overcome substantial ethnic, linguistic, and doctrinal differences while they reform their governments and economies before they can even begin construction will face many difficulties. But the inescapable truth is that the Muslim world has been suffering from an existential crisis for centuries. The only way to resolve the many issues facing it will be by taking bold steps that can finally allow it to genuinely modernize.

Unfortunately, most of the Muslim world’s rulers have refused to implement substantive reforms that could lead to meaningful change. As such, the best way to start the process is by taking incremental steps towards realizing them focused on increasing trade and tourism. That way, the elites of the Muslim world can see the benefits of having access to each other’s markets. Hopefully, that will create a reinforcing loop that leads to further integration and trade in the same way that a customs union for coal paved the way for European integration. The goal would be for such incremental progress to eventually lead to a fully developed and integrated alliance comparable to the EU and NATO.

Ultimately, the elites of the Muslim world must make the choice to reform their countries or face a constant cycle of conquest or rebellion. Given the frequency with which the Muslim world’s despotic governments keep failing, one would think its leaders might be receptive to ideas that can finally help stabilize their nations.

There was a time when the Muslim world was blessed with rulers who had the wisdom and strength to create some of the world’s most powerful empires. The days of empires have ended but the rulers of the Muslim world must still learn to think in grander terms and have loftier goals than merely enriching themselves or clinging to power. They must strive for nuclear fusion, not as some grandiose goal, but as a last desperate lifeline. One that offers them some glimmer of hope before the technological and economic gap between the Great Powers of the world and their nations become so wide it develops into a permanent condition. If Muslims ever want to see an end to the conflicts that have led to the death and displacement of countless millions over the past few centuries, they will need to fundamentally reform their societies as discussed here and hope they can develop nuclear fusion.

For those who are not convinced of the dangers, here is a short summary of some of the military calamities suffered by Muslims during the past few centuries:

1798: French forces conquer Egypt, an Ottoman province at the time. They are eventually forced to withdraw by the British since the Ottomans do not have the power to challenge Napoleon’s forces.

1830: France conquers and colonizes Algeria. It took the Algerian people around 130 years and countless ruined lives before they were able to re-gain their freedom. They are still suffering from the legacy of French colonial rule and exploitation.

1857: The Muslims and Hindus of the Subcontinent revolt against their British masters and are ruthlessly suppressed, allowing Britain to maintain control of the entire subcontinent for another 90 years. Despite being vastly outnumbered and relying on indigenous troops to form the bulk of their forces, the British crushed the rebellion. One of their favored tactics was strapping captured prisoners to cannons who were executed by having a cannonball shot through their chest at close range.

1890: To secure their conquest of Egypt, the British invade Sudan with an army of roughly 25,000, defeating a much larger force of 60,000 and maintaining control until the 1950s.

1922: In the aftermath of WWI, the British and French take control of several former Ottoman provinces within the Arab world. Dividing them as spoils of war which they controlled until the end of the colonial era.

1947: Jewish refugees defeat six different Arab armies, creating the state of Israel by conquering Palestine and dispossessing many of its people of their land.

1948: India essentially annexes Kashmir, making it the only Muslim majority state in the Union. Forces from Pakistan try to seize Kashmir too but are repelled. The majority of Kashmir remains under Indian control.

1956: Israel, France, and the U.K. seize the Suez Canal. The US forces them to withdraw so Egypt treats the episode as a victory even though its military forces were completely incapable of protecting their most vital economic asset. It was returned due to political pressure from the US, which only forced its allies to withdraw to prevent angering the Soviet Union. In other words, the Egyptian military was a non-factor.

1965: Pakistan starts its second war with India. It loses. Again.

1967: Israel starts a war with its Arab neighbors. It wins. Again. It also takes over the entire Sinai Peninsula, the West Bank, the Gaza strip, all of Jerusalem, and the Golan heights. Aside from the Sinai, it still controls (either directly or indirectly) all the territory it conquered during those six days.

1971: India attacks Pakistan. Pakistan loses. Again. Pakistan is dismembered, leading to the creation of Bangladesh. 90,000 of its troops are captured and held in POW camps. In a repeat of 1857, Muslims from the Northwest of the Subcontinent slaughter Muslims from the Bengal and rely on racist tropes to justify their barbaric behavior towards their fellow Muslims.

1973: Egypt and Syria launch a coordinated attack against Israel, scoring a few small wins in the early stages but ultimately succumbing to Israel’s counterattack which highlights the complete inability of the Arab forces to engage in maneuver warfare or adjust their tactics without the benefit of a pre-planned script.

1979: The Soviet Union invades and occupies Afghanistan. The US and Pakistan arm Afghanistan’s mujaheddin forces who use guerilla tactics to defeat the Soviet forces. They withdraw in 1989, marking one of the few victories for Muslim military forces. A victory that only took 10 years and 2 million dead Afghan civilians to achieve.

1980: Iraq invades Iran, starting one of the longest conventional wars in modern history. Though their militaries are incompetent in different ways and for different reasons, neither side has the military power to achieve a decisive victory. Roughly 500,000 casualties and 9 years later the war ends.

1982: Israel invades Lebanon, occupying the south of the country. Israeli forces are eventually forced to withdraw in 2000 after a guerilla campaign by South Lebanon’s Shi’ites. Another Muslim victory but one that took 18 years to achieve and claimed thousands of innocent lives. Even today, Israel still occasionally launches airstrikes and artillery bombardments against Lebanon which has yet to develop the military abilities to prevent these attacks.

1987: The first Intifada, or Palestinian uprising against Israel begins. Palestinian youth fight for their freedom by throwing stones at Israeli tanks. They do not achieve any military victories but pave the way for peace talks a few years later.

1989: Kashmir’s Muslims, tired after years of political oppression and mismanagement from New Delhi, revolt. India responds by stationing between 500,000-900,000 security personnel in the territory to brutally put the revolt down relying heavily on extra-judicial murder, torture, and systematic rape. They succeed. Although the insurgency continues today, Kashmiris have yet to develop military capabilities that can secure their freedom despite sacrificing roughly 100,000 sons and daughters to the cause.

1991: Saddam Hussein invades Kuwait. The U.S. responds by destroying and routing the Iraqi army, sustaining very few casualties in the process. Iraq’s defeat is so complete that it irrevocably changes the military dynamics of the entire region by showing the incompetence and weakness of what had been considered one of the most powerful Muslim militaries. In the aftermath of its victory, the US begins permanently stationing its forces in the Middle East. It also enforces a no-fly zone and embargo against Iraq that leads to the death of roughly 576,000 Iraqi children. 

1994: The war in Bosnia. Muslims are slaughtered by both Croats and Serbs. Various Muslim nations, with the support of the U.S., arm and train Bosnia’s Muslims who eventually ally themselves with the Croats to fight the Serbs to a stalemate. Thousands of Muslim women and children are raped and murdered before this happens.

1998: Kargil. Pakistan attacks India. It loses. Again. Bringing its record against India to an impressive 0-4.

2000: The second Intifada. After peace talks fail, the Palestinians revolt again but use brutal tactics that intentionally target Israeli civilians. Their tactics backfire because they turn the Israeli public against any peace deal. Israel’s security forces respond by crushing the insurgency so thoroughly that they end any hope for an independent Palestinian state.

2001: 9/11. Radical Islamists launch a surprise attack against the United States, killing roughly 3,000 Americans. The U.S. responds by conquering Afghanistan, relying on special forces troops backed by airstrikes. Its actions set off a chain of events that leads to a civil war in Pakistan that claimed the lives of roughly 80,000 Pakistanis. After nearly 20 years and over 40,000 dead Afghan civilians the Taliban force the US to withdraw, handing the Muslims yet another hollow victory.

2003: As part of the War on Terror, the US also invades Iraq. Like the first Gulf War, Iraq’s military stands no chance. The US establishes control with lightning speed but gets bogged down in a guerilla war (largely of its own making). It is eventually able to defeat the insurgency and the government it created to replace Saddam (barely) survives today. An estimated 200,000 – 2.4 million Iraqis die.

2006: Israel responds to an incursion by Hezbollah by sending military forces into Southern Lebanon again and bombing much of its rebuilt infrastructure. The short conflict is mostly seen as a win for Hezbollah which manages to inflict relatively heavy casualties on the IDF; however, casualty figures for both sides show much heavier losses on the Lebanese side and highlight, once again, how vulnerable Lebanon is to Israel’s more powerful air forces.

2011: Syria erupts in civil war. Its government is only able to survive because of help from allies in Russia, Iran, and Lebanon but its territory devolves into anarchy. Millions are forced to flee Bashar Asad’s horrific violence, turning much of its population into refugees.

2017: Saudi Arabia and the UAE attack Yemen’s Houthis but must rely on logistical and intelligence support from the US even though the Houthis have no modern air defenses and limited access to heavy weapons. Despite this support and the huge disparity in resources between the belligerents, they prove incapable of defeating the Houthis who frequently target Saudi energy infrastructure. They do; however, manage to kill 400,000 Yemeni civilians.

This list, which only highlights some of the consequences of the Muslim world’s military incompetence and political instability shows exactly how little has changed over the past few centuries. The only “victories” took many years, millions of deaths, and immeasurable economic damage to achieve. The same weakness that allowed the French to conquer one of the Ottoman Empire’s richest provinces in 1798 continues to haunt Muslims today and led to the conquest of both Afghanistan and Iraq by US forces in 2001 and 2003. This weakness has cost the lives of countless millions over the centuries and will continue to do so until it is corrected. The Muslims of Palestine, Russia, and Kashmir all live under brutal military occupations with no end in sight.

Even China has begun forcing many of its Muslims to live in horrid detention camps where they are subject to systematic rape and sterilization while the Chinese Communist Party attempts to convince them to abandon their religious and cultural identifies. Despite these crimes, Muslim nations are so weak and uninterested in protecting each other they continue to trip over each other to do business with China. Many Pakistani leaders have even gone out of their way to argue their “iron brother” is guilty of no crimes against its Muslim populations. Part of the reason Muslim nations do not challenge China is they know they do not have the strength to do so.

Without serious reforms, the pattern of conquest and destruction that has gripped the Muslim world will continue. Unity, by itself, will not be enough. It is just one of many changes Muslims must implement if they ever hope to stabilize their societies.

Chief among them is the need to guarantee freedom of expression because without that creating a vibrant, prosperous society is impossible. The ability to express oneself freely is the key to unlocking the true potential of individuals and by extension, entire societies. Without strong free speech protections, societies fall into dictatorship because the ability of citizens to speak their minds is the ultimate check on a government’s power. It is also the key to nurturing intellectual curiosity of the sort required to build good schools and drive technological innovation. America’s founders guaranteed the right to free speech in the very first amendment of their constitution for a reason. Their understanding of its importance laid the foundation for its rise.

By contrast, the weakness of the Muslim world is a result of the prevalence of authoritarian political and cultural institutions that trample freedom of expression as part of their refusal to share power with or properly educate their people. Thankfully, the diagnosis reveals the cure.

If authoritarianism is the culprit, then liberalism and democracy are the remedies. Muslims must study the causes of the Western world’s dominance and apply those lessons to their own ends. Just as our ancestors once borrowed from the Chinese to create powerful armies and record powerful ideas, today’s Muslims must borrow from all the world’s communities and use their knowledge and experiences to better themselves.

Rather than fear change, Muslims must embrace it. That is the only way to evolve and, as nature teaches us, evolution is the key to survival. The inability of Muslims to evolve, if left unchecked, will inevitably lead to more conquest, enslavement, and death.

When I argue for the lofty goal of nuclear fusion it is, indeed, out of desperation. Desperation to see the slaughter of innocents stop and prevent looming disasters. Instead of arguing that such goals are too difficult to attain, I suggest it is time to think about ways to end the cycle of violence that has destroyed so many lives. If its history is any guide, the Muslim world is on a path to a dystopian future that will be characterized by intense violence and economic stagnation. I propose Muslims begin working towards a “Star Trek” future by seeking nuclear fusion rather than sit idly as their leaders march them towards slavery and destruction.

To that end, I have given the best advice I can, even though I knew it would be ignored. My primary audience has been the soldiers and thugs that rule much of the Muslim world. That is why I have presented most of my ideas in military or national security terms even though there are so many ways to address these issues that transcend war and politics. The best and most persuasive have to do with life and liberty. But that is not the language my audience speaks. Thus, I have tailored my message accordingly even though war is a wasteful and destructive activity. Civilizations only achieve greatness when they prioritize intellectual development and come together based on logic and justice. Men may worship war, but it is false god that only leads to ruin and damnation.

Yet, it is a topic we must all understand. I have studied the various military defeats suffered by the Muslim world to develop a coherent explanation for the weakness that has gripped so much of it. Thankfully, understanding what ails it is not terribly complicated.

The seminal work, Why Nations Fail, shows exactly how dictatorships lead to weak economic growth while stifling technological innovation. Aside from its discussions of Uzbekistan and Egypt, it does not spend a great deal of time on the Muslim world. However, it does not take much imagination to see the relevance. The great majority of the Muslim world has been living under a dictatorship of some form or another since the Umayyad Empire and this has severely stunted its political, social, and technological development.

In Armies of Sand, Ken Pollack explains why Arab armies have performed so poorly in battle. According to Mr. Pollack these defeats are largely attributable to cultural factors that have prevented Arab soldiers from mastering the intricacies of modern warfare. Though he limits his analysis to the Arabs, his conclusions are applicable to many non-Arab Muslim militaries too, just to a lesser degree.

Last, we have Prof. Kuru’s important work about authoritarianism in the Muslim world. Prof. Kuru provides the historical background and context for the observations made by Mr. Pollack and Messrs. Acemoglu and Robinson.

Combined, these works show why the Muslim world has been so weak for so long. I have done my best to explain how their ideas work together and apply them to the current geo-political environment. My goal was to raise the alarm and provide a brief discussion while working on more detailed explanations in my books.

But I have played the town crier long enough. And I am reasonably satisfied that I have presented my arguments as clearly as possible, using a variety of angles. As a result, I will be taking a hiatus from sharing my gloomy prognostications and analysis while I work on my books. The first, a fictional work called “How the assassination of Donald Rumsfeld led to the fall of the Milky Way” uses the garb of science fiction and fantasy to explain the same points raised throughout my blog. The second “Mirrors for the Prince: a commonsense explanation of how dictators are destroying the Muslim world and why democracy can save it” will provide a far more in-depth explanation of the ideas presented herein with stricter annotations and evidentiary support.

I am confident in my theories and analysis because they are based on a careful study of the available data and common sense. As such, when I argue that Muslim societies must develop democratic political institutions, it is not because I am repeating the mantra of a predetermined political viewpoint. It is because the evidence shows that democratic political institutions lead to creating wealthy and powerful societies. I have presented my analysis in a somewhat unorthodox style as an attempt to pay respect to Ibn Khaldun and Machiavelli by updating their styles for modern sensibilities. My attempt to revive a long extinct literary genre was my way of paying homage to those who inspired me the most. Despite these quirks, those who read my ideas with an open mind, without letting their civilizational biases or ideological preferences get in the way will see that I have not only correctly assessed the Muslim world’s surest path to rehabilitation but given America some good advice too.

As discussed elsewhere, the parallels between the Muslim world and America are startling. Since America is my adopted tribe, I have done my best to dissuade it from its destructive policies. I have criticized its actions, not out of hatred but love and the belief that patriotism is best expressed through criticism, not blind allegiance. Some might come away thinking I hate America. Nothing could be further from the truth. If my family had emigrated to France, I would either be in jail or working a menial job. But we did not move to France. We moved to America, so I got to be a lawyer instead. Despite my affections, I vehemently disagree with its foreign policies. America has turned itself into a merchant of death and a hypocrite, forcing me to speak uncomfortable truths.

I will close by pointing out some of my predictions have already come true. I predicted that America was ripe for a right-wing coup about a year before Jan. 6^th[1]. I also predicted the Afghan Republic’s dependence on US military support was a fatal weakness that would lead to “an entirely new government in Afghanistan that, at best, will have to share power with the Taliban in the near future” on Nov. 20, 2020, nearly a year before the Taliban took over. I can only hope that someone pays attention before my bleaker predictions come true.

I wanted to record these ideas and explain the theories behind them because I felt it was important to provide an intellectual foundation that could pave the way for change. My sincere hope is that these words will eventually lead to action based on reason and logic.

For my part, once I am done with my books, I am going to build a farm. One that features solar powered greenhouses growing healthy fruits, greens, and vegetables vertically using as little water as possible. I have always believed that a healthy agricultural sector driven by innovation and technology is the foundation upon which a strong economy must be built. My dream is to build this farm and the necessary infrastructure to support it in Pakistan as a way of nurturing both its technological capabilities and socioeconomic development. But investing in Pakistan is risky since it is run by jackals who use their power to steal and enrich themselves. Which means, it will take some time to realize these plans. I only mention them to illustrate how I intend to act on some of the ideas expressed in my essays.

I hope some of you will be inspired to come up with your own contributions and ideas. As Prof. Kuru explains, the marginalization of the Muslim world’s merchants by its soldiers has severely stunted its growth. As such, the best way for those of us with no political power to start rebuilding it is to revitalize its merchant class by swelling its ranks. History has shown that the development of a healthy merchant class is often the catalyst for the exact sort of political, social, and technological changes the Muslim world desperately needs. Perhaps that is the role destined for those of us who found refuge in the West? To return to and invest in our homelands using the skills and capital we have acquired while living among our conquerors. That would certainly be a fitting way to finally transition the Muslim world away from the neo-colonial era that has trapped it. It would also quiet my growing fear that our descendants will one day suffer the same fate as Spain’s Muslims.

For those of you who have stuck with me to the end: thank you. I hope I have provided some insights worthy of further consideration.

For those reading this in the future, wishing my contemporaries had followed my advice. All you can do is use these ideas to prevent similar mistakes. As Ibn Khaldun pointed out centuries ago, “the past resembles the future more than one drop of water another[2].” History is a guide for future generations. It is not to be lamented or worshipped but learned from. A knowledge of history combined with a bit of logic can go a long way towards avoiding future calamities. But one must take the time to study the past and train the mind to properly analyze and learn from it first.

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[1] I didn’t get it all right though. I was talking about developments decades from now, or so I thought at the time. I also thought the military would be the culprit. Thank God it was just the Orange One. His incompetence and narcissism saved the day. I was half right but nailed the big picture analysis and none of those factors have changed. Things will only get worse as America’s white population shrinks. We will see more coup attempts both violent and non. I did not publish my predictions since I wrote them as part of a draft for the non-fiction book referenced above when the chapter explaining that outside interference is a symptom, not a root cause of the Muslim world’s weakness veered off course. Luckily, I have receipts.

[2] Khaldun, Ibn, The Muqaddimah: An Introduction to History, trans. Franz Rosenthal (Princeton: The Princeton University Press, 1967) at 12.