As talks meant to revive the agreement with Iran to curtail its nuclear program stall, the Western powers are once again ratcheting up the rhetoric by threatening violence if it does not acquiesce to their demands.
Israel argues that Iranian nuclear weapons pose an existential threat while America argues that, as a government full of bad actors, the Iranian regime cannot be trusted with such powerful weapons. None of their arguments make any sense.
Let’s start with the most obvious hole in their reasoning: the Iranian government, despite its many flaws, is a rational actor. It cares about staying in power above all other considerations. Since it understands that deploying nuclear weapons against the US or Israel would lead to a massive retaliatory strike, it would never actually use them because doing so would threaten its power (and existence). It has used violence to achieve policy goals like any other state but has always done so in a calculated and rational way. For example, after the US murdered its top general, it responded with a missile barrage that was specifically designed to ensure it did not inflict heavy casualties. Its response was calculated to show its capabilities without escalating the violence that America initiated. Not only does this show Iran is a rational actor, but it also highlights a remarkable degree of restraint. It is hard to imagine America or Israel showing similar restraint had the tables been turned. The argument that Iran’s Islamic government is irrational and, as a result, cannot be trusted with these weapons is not supported by the facts.
The only reason it wants these weapons is that it knows they are the only way to guarantee its security. In other words, its goal is to develop a deterrent against further aggression and secure its power. Given America’s and Israel’s violent behavior and the power disparity between these nations, nothing could be more rational.
What is irrational is trying to stop Iran from acquiring these weapons after creating the political and military conditions that made them necessary in the first place.
The US is the only country to ever use atomic weapons and it used them against cities full of women and children. Instead of recoiling at the horrors unleashed by these weapons, American leaders still occasionally threaten their adversaries with nuclear annihilation. It has the means to make good on these threats because it has a stockpile of almost 4,000 nuclear bombs and has built delivery systems capable of dropping them anywhere it chooses.
The US also has a violent history in the Middle East. Most point to the CIA’s involvement in overthrowing Iran’s government in 1953 as evidence of US perfidy but one does not need to go that far back to understand why Iran may believe it needs nuclear weapons to protect itself. It was the Reagan administration that gave Iraq the chemical weapons it used against Iran during their long war. More recently, America conquered two of Iran’s neighbors leading to the death of hundreds of thousands, possibly millions of Iraqis and Afghans. It sometimes threatens Iran with similar violence. It has followed through on these threats by conducting or supporting clandestine military operations to murder Iranian officials and scientists on numerous occasions. These threats are also supported by America’s substantial military forces in the region, including a large fleet stationed in the Persian Gulf.
Israel has a stockpile of nuclear weapons and a sophisticated nuclear triad capable of delivering them to any target in the Middle East too. It also has a history of using violence against its neighbors. It invaded and occupied Lebanon for 18 years, destroying its infrastructure and stoking a civil war that claimed thousands of lives. It often conducts airstrikes and clandestine military operations throughout the region. Ironically, Israel justifies these attacks by blaming Hezbollah’s attempts to arm itself even though it is only doing so in response to Israel’s aggressive military posture. Hezbollah would not exist if Israel had not first invaded and occupied Lebanon for so long. And, for better or worse, it is the only military organization that has proven it can defend Lebanon from further attacks.
These facts are important because they show exactly why Iran wants and even needs these weapons. As such, the goal of stopping Iran’s nuclear program is completely hypocritical and unrealistic. This debate is usually couched in national security terms, but at its core, it is about Islamophobia and a clash of civilizations. Iran is a Muslim nation and the idea of another Muslim nation acquiring such powerful weapons scares many in the West. Though unfortunate, these fears do not justify the violence and economic warfare perpetrated against it.
Instead of using thinly veiled racist arguments to justify hypocritical policies, America’s leaders should reflect on their reckless behavior which also includes its erratic non-proliferation efforts. It did not help Israel develop its nuclear weapons (that was France) but has provided billions to subsidize the cost of its military which has obviously helped defray the cost of these weapons and their delivery systems. It did the same for Pakistan, even selling it F-16s capable of delivering nuclear payloads[1]. It is rumored to have helped South Africa’s Apartheid regime develop its nuclear weapons and it signed a treaty with India in 2008 designed to improve its nuclear capabilities. To describe America’s non-proliferation efforts as inconsistent would be a gross understatement.
Many Americans now understand how systemic racism has fueled inequality and violence in the US. The next step is to understand how Islamophobia has also fueled policies towards the Muslim world. The facts described above show that efforts to stop Iran from developing nuclear weapons are not grounded in legitimate national security concerns but in the determination of the US and Israel to maintain their hegemonic control of the Middle East. Both scream about their right to defend themselves while denying Muslims this same right because their policies are rooted in their imperialist (read racist) worldviews.
Sadly, it is unlikely these arguments will have any effect since they challenge the idiotic idea of American exceptionalism and consider the Muslim perspective (a truly radical idea, to be fair). That is unfortunate because their current policies will only lead to more violence and unnecessarily ruin more lives. At least America’s and Israel’s defense companies will be happy.
Since they are unlikely to change course, Iran must devise new strategies to protect itself. It has thus far pursued a strategy of developing asymmetric capabilities and regional sub-state allies to deter further aggression. This strategy is unlikely to lead to military capabilities that can sufficiently dissuade its adversaries from attacking it.
The best way to do that is to develop an alliance with other states that can help it to defend itself. Despite the many obstacles to creating an alliance between them, Turkey and Pakistan are the most logical candidates for the job. The author has already discussed the benefits of such an alliance here (discussing how Muslim states should react to America’s inevitable military withdrawal from the region) and here (discussing why Iran should create a free trade zone with Turkey, Afghanistan, and Pakistan), so there is no need to re-hash them.
Pan-Islamic ideas may sound antiquated in today’s climate, but the truth is that the Muslim world has been subject to brutal levels of violence for centuries. This violence will only stop when Muslim nations take responsibility for their collective security needs. The sanctions imposed on Iraq in the years leading to its 2003 invasion killed 500,000 Iraqi children. Even after it was clear the sanctions were strengthening Saddam Hussein’s government instead of weakening it, the US insisted on maintaining its embargo despite the horrific toll. It is following the same script against Iran and given the trajectory of America’s relationship with Turkey and Pakistan, it is not inconceivable that one or both nations will find themselves similarly targeted in the future. The Western dominated international system is predicated on survival of the fittest, not the rule of law. As such, the only recourse Muslims have is to work together to develop the means to protect themselves.
The need to do so is particularly urgent given the unstable nature of America’s leadership. Bush’s war crimes gave way to Trump’s amoral buffoonery which has now given way to Marjorie Taylor Greene’s overtly racist stupidity. As this progression shows, America’s leaders are not only getting dumber, but they are also becoming more unhinged and dangerous with each election cycle. This proves Muslims must take immediate steps to ensure their safety and that the world should be far more worried about America’s vast arsenal than Iran’s attempts to protect itself.
None of this should be construed as arguing Iran should develop nuclear weapons but only that it has the right to do so without Western interference. There is no denying that the Iranian regime has a horrible human rights record. It proves exactly why religion and politics do not mix. Politicians are by their very nature corrupt and self-serving. When those charged with nurturing a society’s moral and spiritual development engage in politics, they taint themselves and inevitably give in to the temptations and trappings of power and its pursuit. Iran’s ayatollahs have proven themselves every bit as corrupt and hypocritical as the Shah they replaced. But that does not justify murdering innocent women and children. Ultimately, the militaristic policies of the West will lead to exactly that. If America and Israel are serious about convincing Iran to abandon its nuclear ambitions, they should start by eliminating their own nuclear stockpiles and ending their imperialist military policies in the region. The fact that they never will merely proves Iranian policies are not only rational but necessary.
The author is a Pakistani-American, US Navy veteran, attorney in the field of intellectual property law and discusses how to modernize the Muslim world on his blog, www.mirrorsfortheprince.com.
[1] It had no choice but to ignore Pakistan’s program because of the war in Afghanistan but still subjected it to harsh sanctions as punishment once doing so was politically feasible. The sanctions were only lifted once Pakistan became indispensable again after 9/11.
Your assessment of the so-called Ayatollahs Regime in Iran is ignorant; e.g. which particular Ayatollah is corrupt and in what manner? Is Ayatollah Khamenei? Was Khomeini?
Alliance of Iran with Pakistan or Turkey is not possible for Iran. Turkey, under Erdogan, did her best to bring about the destruction of the Syrian Arab Republic – the only country that stood by Iran during the 8 years of Iran-Iraq War.
Pakistan has sheltered Sunni Muslim terrorist against Iran. She also did not deliver on her legal commitments to Iran for Iran-Pakistan Gas Pipeline. Nothing useful, in my opinion, will ever come Iran’s way from Afghanistan or Pakistan.
In any case, Iran has now forged her Shia Crescent during 10 years of Syrian and Iraqi wars and does not need Turkey or Pakistan as she is only a few short steps from fielding nuclear weapons herself.
Thank you for your insights. I will respond in more detail soon, but I do disagree with your conclusions. In the meantime, I you might enjoy this piece too: https://mirrorsfortheprince.com/why-irans-proposed-alliance-with-china-will-be-bad-for-iran/. I can only assume you will disagree with me on this as well but would still love to hear your thoughts.
Iran is consistently ranked as one of the world’s most corrupt. I think it is 150/180 on the corruption index.
Iran’s Shia Crescent will only help it so much. Unless its militias learn how to build advanced fighter jets, air defenses, missile defense systems, and radars that can protect Iranian air space, I do not think they will be able to save Iran should Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Israel, the US 7th fleet decided to use their massive advantage in stealth fighters and bombers to attack Iran. I have always adhered to the Sherlock Holmes school of thought – once you eliminate the impossible, whatever remains, however improbable gives you your answer. Iran has always had a tortured history with Turkey and, to a lesser extent, Pakistan but they have no choice but to come together. The chaos and instability that is likely to characterize the next few decades will force all three to seek each other out, if they can put their pride aside.
You are correct that both Pakistan and Afghanistan have undeveloped economies that do not make goods Iran may want, but the same is true of Iran’s backwards economy. The point is that they all need to work together to finally build an industrial base capable of building such goods and help each other develop.
Muslims need to start thinking bigger. If we do not learn to work together the same way the Germany and France have (despite their tortured histories), the cycle of violence that has gripped the Muslim world will never end. America’s invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan should have been a wakeup call but most of us seem content to stick our heads in the sand instead of admitting just how vulnerable the Muslim world still is. Even if Iran builds nukes, it will not be safe. Neither is Pakistan. The West is continuously working on the next technological development that will give it a military edge. Nano-technology, AI software, satellite-based weapons, etc., etc. will shape the wars of the future. Until Muslim nations build a scientific base that can keep pace with these developments, they will never be safe. The key to doing that is learning to work together. By themselves Turkey, Iran, and Pakistan are weak, but together they have the potential to finally build real power and strength.
So, you have conceded that your statement regarding the corruption of Ayatollahs Regime could not be substantiated and you proceeded to replace it with another, also unsubstantiated, assertion. I ask you: “What is the corruption ranking among India, Pakistan, and Iran?”
My answer: Pakistan is worse than India and Iran is worse than Iran.
On your second paragraph, you fail to grasp the strategic situation. When US destroyed Iraq, Iranians moved in and helped the Shia Arabs to gain political control of that country – aligned to Iran.
Arabs of Southern Persian Gulf cannot fight Iran, that is a fantasy. US is a threat, of which Iranians are aware and are addressing it. Trump was going to attack Iran after he lost re-election. Iranians were prepared and someone on the US side prevented a war.
With the revolution in military affairs, Iran does not need fighter jets, only precision long-distance rockets with near lethality of nuclear weapons, i.e. thermobaric weapons. Which they could have by now.
In Syria, the Shia from Iran, Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon, and Pakistan learnt to work together and with Sunni, Alawite, Druze, and Christian Syrians as well as the Orthodox Russians against pan-Muslim Sunni Jihadists forces. Neither the Syrian war nor its sectarian nature can be forgotten by Iranians. No one in Iran trusts Arabs, Turkey, Afghans, or Pakistan.
While trade is possible, strategic cooperation at the level of Common Market is a pipedream. As you have indicated, the Shia Crescent is going to go the path of autarky since that is their only choice, however inadequate. But the issue of security and mutual trust among the member of the Shia Crescent is now settled.
To your last paragraph, while I agree with the general sentiment, I do not believe it possible. Look up the number of books translated into Punjabi or Urdu Or Malay, or Arabic from foreign languages each year and compare it with the same statistics for Greece, Turkey, or Iran.