As Russia continues to mass troops on Ukraine’s border, America and its allies are searching for a response that can protect Ukraine’s sovereignty without provoking a wider war. Here’s how to solve this crisis: turn Ukraine into Switzerland. No outside powers get to build bases or station troops there. And no one gets to sell it weapons that could threaten Russia or Western Europe.
In return, the Ukrainians can trade with whomever they want and choose their own leaders without Russian interference. These measures would ensure that Ukrainian territory is never used by either side to threaten the other while ensuring its independence.
Russia’s red lines have been obvious and explicit for many years. It demands the right to create a buffer around its perimeter to make sure it is never subject to the kind of violence that Germany and France have inflicted on it in the past. Millions of Russians died during Germany’s last invasion, so their concerns are not entirely unreasonable.
At the end of the Cold War, the Russians believed they had a gentleman’s agreement with America to make sure it would never expand NATO to its doorstep. America reneged but Russia did not honor the spirit of the agreement either because it acted as though it had the right to choose Ukraine’s leaders. Russia, as all nations do, has the right to protect its interests but that does not extend to controlling its smaller neighbors. A durable agreement must fairly protect the interests of both nations.
Unfortunately, Ukraine’s geography requires compromises that may not be ideal but are necessitated by the realities of living next to a nation that is often described as a bear. One of those compromises is that Ukraine cannot build the sort of powerful military that could arouse its neighbor’s suspicions. Its defense acquisitions must be designed to turn it into a porcupine that not even a bear would touch but nothing more. Every nation has a right to defend itself, but they must also deal with the world as it is, not as they would like it to be. So, joining an alliance that could threaten its neighbor is simply not feasible. The people of Mexico can probably empathize with their predicament.
Thankfully, an agreement that limits Ukraine’s ability to spend on its military will be better for it in the long run. Nations that waste resources on excessive military spending eventually collapse under the weight of this spending as America is destined to find out. Better to invest in its economy and people, particularly since its geography also positions it to become a nation that can enrich itself by facilitating trade between Russia and the West. The key to doing so, however, is earning the trust of both and that requires it turn itself into a neutral party.
The greatest enemies of commonsense are pride and greed. Turning Ukraine into a semi-demilitarized zone means less money for the all-powerful defense industry that seems to think the solution to every problem is more guns and bombs. Adding more weapons to a standoff is usually the worst way to relieve tensions. Instead of adding fuel to the fire, it is time to go back to lessons learned the last time Russia and America faced off. During the Cold War, both played by an agreed upon set of rules that prevented their competition from getting too hot. It is time to develop a similar set of rules that can ease tensions between these nuclear armed giants yet again. As we all used to implicitly understand, the alternative is a war no one will win.
The author is a US Navy veteran and IP lawyer who typically focuses on the Muslim world on his blog www.mirrorsfortheprince.com
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