Pakistan’s government is its own worst enemy

This essay was first published here, by The Friday Times on Sept. 24, 2024.

Pakistanis are a diverse group of people with different perspectives on many topics. One of the few things most of us can probably agree on is that the Pakistani government is unbelievably incompetent and has been since its inception. It has a horrible habit of making the country’s problems worse instead of solving them. The leaked audio of a man from its security services threatening the family of a member of the Pakistani diaspora in Australia shows exactly how.

Here is a link to a YouTube video that contains the audio and provides some context. But for those who prefer a more concise summary, a Pakistani man living in Australia named Salman Shabbir started a petition and sent tweets that offended someone in Pakistan’s government. This official responded by sending armed men to find Mr. Shabbir’s brother in Pakistan, who took him to a local jail. One of these men then called Mr. Shabbir from his brother’s cell phone and proceeded to threaten and beat his brother as he demanded the offensive tweets be deleted. During their conversation, the officer justified his actions on the basis that the tweets were causing “instability” and argued that, as a Pakistani in Australia, Mr. Shabbir should mind his own business.

There are so many troubling aspects to this incident, it is difficult to know where to begin. For starters, never go after someone’s family. Attacking a person’s family is a good way to make an enemy for life. It can only lead to violence. And deservedly so. People will endure almost anything to avenge a loved one, especially when they are unjustly attacked. Pakistan’s rulers would do well to remember the tale of Mohammad Deif, the architect of the Oct. 7th attack on Israel. The Israeli military murdered his wife, infant son, and three year old daughter in 2014. He responded by spending the better part of a decade planning his revenge which consisted of inflicting Israel’s worst military defeat in 50 years.

Thankfully, Mr. Shabbir responded with such overwhelming courage and grace he managed to diffuse the situation before it escalated further. But attacking his family speaks to a level of incompetence and moral depravity that is difficult to fathom. Taking such a drastic step over a petition or social media commentary suggests a complete misunderstanding of when and how the state should use force. It represents a complete failure by the Pakistani government on every level imaginable.

There are certainly times when the state can and must use force. This was not one of those times. As recently explained in reference to the insurgencies in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) and Balochistan, when members of the security forces abuse their authority or use force inappropriately, they undermine the very institutions they are fighting to protect, leading to the “instability” they are trying to prevent. Force must always be a last resort, and it must only be used in extreme situations such as confronting armed assailants. Neither tweeting, nor starting petitions fall into this category. People have every right to criticize their government, particularly when it is so inept. Denying this right does far more to destabilize a country than letting them speak their minds.

As Machiavelli explained centuries ago in his seminal work, The Prince, keeping the people happy is easy. All it takes is NOT abusing or oppressing them. This incident is a vivid reminder Pakistan’s leaders cannot meet even this depressingly low standard.  

Yet another aspect of this episode that illustrates the failings of Pakistan’s rulers is the sentiment Pakistanis living overseas have no right to discuss the affairs of their motherland. This idea is equal parts absurd and shortsighted. 

One of the many toxic side effects of having such an unbelievably incompetent and corrupt government is that Pakistan’s economy is poorly run, inefficient, and exceptionally unproductive. For those without family money or connections, Pakistan is a hard place to make an honest living. We could spend volumes going over the data but suffice it to say, most socio-economic indices suggest it is a miserable place to live for the average person.

As a result, millions of Pakistanis have made the difficult choice to flee their country in search of a better life. Over 1.62 million left in just 2023. There are already more than 625,000 Pakistanis in America and another 1.5 million in the UK along with millions more throughout the Middle East. To expect these people to forget about the place of their birth simply because they no longer reside there ignores an intrinsic part of human nature. People are naturally drawn to the land of their forefathers and will often take an interest in its history and affairs. Many will even retain an inexplicable affection and love for their homeland despite having precious few memories of it.

Pakistan’s rulers should be grateful those lucky enough to escape their dysfunction remain so vested in the well-being of their motherland. As a community, Pakistan’s diaspora remits billions back home every year. These funds provide one of the many crutches its leaders use to mask their theft and misrule, insulating them from the need to change. Suggesting those who send their hard-earned money back home should remain quiet ignores their contributions to the nation’s financial well-being and the longevity of its rulers. It also ignores another obvious truth; those who help pay the nation’s bills have every right to comment on how it is run.

From a more strategic perspective, attacking or dismissing overseas Pakistanis is a criminal waste of resources for a country that has very few to squander. Though our time in foreign lands may have imbued us with strange accents and customs, many of us have acquired skills and perspectives that could greatly benefit Pakistan. Like all Pakistan’s people, we are an asset, not a threat.

This scribe, for example, has often dreamed of returning to Pakistan to build a farm. One covered in solar powered greenhouses filled with hydroponic towers and precise irrigation systems to exponentially increase its yield while drastically reducing the amount of water used to achieve it. But investing the necessary capital in a land with insecure property rights, inefficient courts, needlessly violent security agencies, and an opaque regulatory environment known for its corruption is daunting, to say the least. Compounding the problem, Pakistan’s army has decided it wants to enter the field of corporate farming too. Which means this imaginary farm would be competing against its well-connected generals.

Instead of creating an environment that would allow overseas Pakistanis to help the country to our full potential, Pakistan’s leaders prefer to unjustly attack innocent people. Which is one more reason the assault on Mr. Shabbir’s brother epitomizes the self-inflicted dysfunction that has chased so many Pakistanis away and kept the nation so weak and unstable for so long.

The sad truth is that Pakistan is not on a sound trajectory. It is currently dealing with two violent insurgencies, a failing economy, crushing debt, a rising India and the looming threat of climate change as it struggles to rebuild from the floods of 2022. It is well past time for Pakistan’s leaders to admit their way of doing things is not working. They must change course before it is too late. Unfortunately, the egregious nature of this episode suggests they never will.

Of course, they are not alone in their self-destructive behavior. The phenomenon of transnational repression has been well documented as being practiced by many of the world’s nations. America, Israel, India, Iran, and Russia have all attacked and murdered people outside their territory via extrajudicial means. Compared to the crimes committed by so many of the world’s nations, it may seem unfair to castigate Pakistan’s government over what was ultimately a minimal use of force.

As we were all taught as children, just because the rest of the world is jumping off a bridge does not mean Pakistan should follow. The world’s governments are certainly taking a collective turn towards authoritarianism and right-wing ideologies. Even the supposedly liberal democracies of the West have a very hypocritical view of free speech and often treat peaceful dissent as treason. Jingoism and tribalism are the order of the day. But, as these nations will eventually find out, this is not the path to long-term peace, prosperity, or power.

Building a strong society, especially for a nation as diverse as Pakistan, requires not only tolerating dissent and criticism but encouraging it. Constructive criticism, grounded in logic and the free exchange of ideas. These are the foundations upon which vibrant intellectual climates are built. Without one, it is impossible to nurture technological innovation or create governments that are responsive to the needs of their people. Absent these ingredients, commerce languishes, and military power fails. As such, building a wealthy, powerful state requires guaranteeing freedom of expression and encouraging people to speak their minds.

Pakistan’s leaders need to remember their job is not to stifle dissent but to listen to it and that true patriotism requires criticism, not blind loyalty. Due to its large population and well-equipped military, Pakistan has the potential to be the Muslim world’s most powerful state. However, it will never reach this potential unless its rulers take these lessons to heart. Until then, they will remain their own worst enemy.

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On unity and bringing Pakistan, Iran, and the Muslim world together

This essay was first published here by the Friday Times on Sept. 15, 2024.

Shortly before his death, Iran’s late President Raisi spent several days visiting Pakistan. Like many state visits between Pakistani and Iranian officials over the years, his trip was filled with grand proclamations about the affinity between both nations and the need to improve ties. Both sides agreed to boost trade to $10 billion within 5 years. They also agreed to work together to bring peace and prosperity to Afghanistan and jointly condemned Israel’s massacre in Gaza.

These were all worthwhile developments the author has advocated for many times, in a variety of contexts. The need to build an alliance between Iran and Pakistan has been obvious for a long time. They are natural allies with overlapping interests and ideological perspectives. An alliance would drastically improve each nation’s geopolitical and economic positions, giving them the tools to deal with a chaotic world.

Despite their lofty rhetoric and the potential benefits, Pakistani and Iranian leaders have yet to deliver on their promises. As Jahangir Jameel recently explained, cross border trade still suffers from a “staggering number of restrictions, hurdles, and hindrances.” As usual, little meaningful progress has been made.

It is therefore time to consider ways to turn these aspirations into reality by discussing steps each nation can take to finally make good on the promise of building a closer relationship. Creating a strong alliance between them will require a multi-pronged approach that binds them in as many ways as possible. A true alliance, one strong enough to compel Pakistan to stand up to America on behalf of Iran or for Iran to stand up to India on behalf of Pakistan, requires developing multiple overlapping interests to form a deep bond between them. Cooperation must extend to the social, cultural, political, commercial, scientific, academic, and military spheres.

The most logical way to start is by building people-to-people ties with a view towards increasing tourism and travel between both nations. Most of the efforts thus far have emphasized government to government cooperation, which is important but also puts the proverbial cart in front of the horse. Bringing people together is the first and most important step to bringing nations together.

To that end, creating trade, civil, cultural, and professional organizations comprised of Iranian and Pakistani engineers, artists, miners, teachers, law enforcement officers, lawyers, poets, scholars, scientists, military officers, politicians, journalists, businessmen, etc. will be extremely important. The think tanks, universities, and research institutes of both nations must also be connected via exchange programs and frequent symposiums and conferences. Essentially, Pakistani and Iranian people from all walks of life must find ways to converse and get to know each other and make as many excuses to travel to each other’s countries as possible. Poetry recitals, festivals, trade shows, academic competitions between students, scholarly conferences on any and every topic under the sun. Any excuse will do.

Yet another way to accomplish this goal is by building sports leagues featuring teams from both countries and holding tournaments and competitions in as many different sports as possible on a regular basis. A semi-annual soccer match between their national teams would be a great place to start but any sport will work. Rugby, martial arts, Olympic sports, etc. The more events and reasons to travel, the better.

Ideally, this exchange of people and ideas and the connections they create will lead to increased trade, which is also of vital importance. To facilitate trade, both nations will need to take several steps. As a starting point, their governments must harmonize their import and export policies to create a common market between them while removing barriers to trade like tariffs and inconsistent regulations. They must also improve the rail, air, and road connections that link them, build financial networks that are insulated from American sanctions, and make it easy for their businesses to invest in and access each other’s markets while providing neutral and efficient dispute resolution mechanisms to protect their investments.

Creating joint ventures to stimulate and improve their manufacturing and technological abilities would also be wise. Both nations would benefit greatly from building semiconductor foundries, investing in renewable energy, factories that make heavy goods like mining and construction equipment, and modernizing and protecting their agricultural sectors from climate change. Sharing the costs associated with these capital intensive investments and pooling their expertise would help reduce the burden on each nation while creating a common market between them would allow for economies of scale that would increase the profitability of these ventures.

Commercial, cultural, ideological, intellectual, and personal connections are the bedrock upon which strong alliances are built. Once they have been established, government to government connections and political cooperation will naturally follow since the perspectives and interests of their people and elites will be more aligned. France and Germany were once implacable foes who fought several wars against each other. Today, they do $120 billion in trade, coordinate policies in a variety of areas, and are the closest of allies. Their alliance began as a customs union to sell coal and grew into the European Union (EU). Pakistan and Iran have the same, if not more, potential. But they must invest in each other and work together to achieve it.

They must also develop strong military ties. That will require expanding the scale and frequency with which they conduct joint training exercises and increased staff level exchanges and interactions. These exercises should include as many different assets as possible and involve large formations to enhance their ability to work together in a variety of scenarios. Eventually, a formal military alliance that leads to joint weapons production, linking their air defense networks, ensuring interoperability between equipment and ammunition, and deep intelligence cooperation will also be necessary. Just as the Western world’s nations work to protect each other via organizations like NATO and the Five Eyes Intelligence Alliance, Pakistan and Iran must do the same following the same blueprint.

They must also coordinate their policies on areas of overlapping interests, like dealing with Afghanistan and its duplicitous rulers, who appear to have learned nothing from their long time in exile. At considerable risk to itself, Pakistan helped the Taliban win their freedom from America just as it helped their fathers defeat the Soviets. Instead of responding with gratitude, the Taliban have quietly reverted to form by allowing their nation to be used as a base to attack their former allies.

Their treachery is rooted in their desire to create a “greater Pashtunistan” by combining Afghanistan with Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province. While their designs pose a more immediate threat to Pakistan, they also present a great danger to Iran over the long run since chaos in Pakistan will naturally spill into Iran. More importantly, the Taliban will quickly remember their hatred for Iran’s Shiites once they are done dismembering Pakistan. As such, it is in Iran’s strategic interests to work with Pakistan to counter the Taliban.

The withdrawal of American forces was an important step towards stabilizing Afghanistan, but the next step is helping it build a government that contributes to regional peace instead of destroying it. Pakistan and Iran have the most to gain from ensuring the Taliban take this step and they have the most to lose if it does not. Pakistan has historically been the primary conduit for goods shipped to Afghanistan; however, its attempts to use this as leverage to convince the Taliban to behave have been undermined by their ability to import goods via Iran’s Chabahar Port. It is only by working together and coordinating their policies that either nation has any chance at moderating the Taliban’s destructive behavior.

Despite the urgent need, these nations have not come together due to the many obstacles between them. Pakistan’s dependence on the Arabs to absorb its excess labor and provide financial subsidies is one factor holding its leaders back. As a preliminary matter, it should be noted that close relationships with Iran and the Arab world need not be mutually exclusive. If Saudi Arabia and the UAE can invest billions in India, Pakistan can build ties with Iran.

However, if Pakistan is forced to pick, the choice is obvious. For all their wealth, the Arabs are not the allies Pakistan needs. Aside from money, they offer nothing of value. They have no technical skills, universities, research institutes, or military attributes that can help Pakistan. They can only provide a crutch that keeps it perpetually hobbled and weak. While their generosity is appreciated, it will never satisfy Pakistan’s massive development and socio-economic needs. The only way to do that is to build an economy that thrives on trade, not handouts. Iran is a far better candidate to help in this regard than the Arabs.

Pakistan’s fear of America is an even bigger factor keeping these neighbors apart. The reluctance to defy America is understandable. It has the power of an 800-pound gorilla, the morals of a flea, and a history of attacking or sabotaging those who refuse to obey it. But the truth is America is already Pakistan’s enemy. It has been since 2008 when it formally committed itself to strengthening India’s nuclear capabilities. Over the years it has also sold it weapons worth $20 billion and US Senator Marco Rubio recently introduced legislation that would elevate India to the same status as a NATO ally to facilitate the sale of even more advanced weapons. This bill also calls for monitoring “Pakistan’s use of offensive force, including through terrorism and proxy groups, against India” and barring it “from receiving security assistance if it is found to have sponsored terrorism against India.” Whether Pakistan’s rulers want to admit it or not, America is a serious threat to their long-term safety and prosperity. It is intent on arming India’s fanatical government to the teeth and has no regard for the danger this poses to Pakistan.

As its decades long military presence in the Middle East shows, America is not just a threat to Pakistan, but the entire Muslim world. The nearly 17,000 Palestinian children it helped apartheid Israel murder after Oct. 7th are but the latest in a long line of victims forced to suffer for its imperial ambitions. Its unequivocal support for the massacre in Gaza and refusal to withdraw its military from the region show it learned nothing from the invasions of Iraq and Afghanistan or the excesses of its supposed “War on Terror.” This suggests it is perfectly capable of making similar mistakes vis-à-vis Iran.

Just as the Taliban’s designs on Pakistan represent a long-term threat to Iran, America’s military posture in the Middle East, particularly its aggression towards Iran, represents a long-term threat to Pakistan. The invasion of Iraq killed or displaced millions, plunging much of the Middle East into chaos. If America initiates large scale violence that destabilizes Iran, which has a significantly larger population than Iraq, the impact on Pakistan will be devastating. As the increased insurgent activity in Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa shows, Pakistan is still dealing with the consequences of America’s actions in Afghanistan. The fallout from similar violence against Iran will be far more consequential. As such, it is in Pakistan’s long term strategic interests to protect Iran from America’s aggression.

Due to the many ways America’s malign activities threaten Pakistan’s long-term security, it should not be viewed as a barrier to closer ties with Iran but as motivation to develop them. Instead of trying to placate America’s hegemonic demands, Pakistan’s leaders must build the strength to protect themselves from its destructive and unhinged behavior. As the author has already warned, if they do not, it is very possible Lahore’s children suffer the same fate as Gaza’s one day.

Though it would be convenient to place all the blame on them, neither the Arabs nor America are the greatest obstacles to unity between Pakistan and Iran. That distinction belongs to the Iranian and Pakistani governments themselves. Each nation is governed by repressive, authoritarian political systems that are simply incapable of creating an environment conducive to promoting technological or economic development of the sort needed to spur large scale, export-based trade. Due to its oil wealth and greater investments in education and infrastructure, Iran is more advanced than Pakistan, which is exceptionally backwards and inefficient. But both suffer from similar structural deficiencies and weaknesses. For example, each has military elites that dominate their economies and wield a disproportionate amount of political power behind the scenes.

As Europe’s example shows, liberal democratic rule supported by a politically powerful merchant class are vital pre-conditions to EU type integration. Without these attributes, creating the mechanisms and institutions that can bring these neighbors together will be impossible. Consequently, developing a strong, trade-based relationship requires each nation empower their merchants and embrace democracy, freedom of expression, and the rule of law. 

The steps discussed above would also work to integrate additional Muslim states. Turkey, for example, would be a valuable addition to the alliance contemplated herein. Turkish President Erdogan’s recent statements regarding the need for an alliance between Muslims suggests Turkey would be receptive to such a venture. However, political and economic realities require Pakistan and Iran first lay a foundation that can lead to including Turkey since the benefits required to induce it to abandon the Western alliance must outweigh the risks. Providing the necessary inducements will only be possible once Iran and Pakistan pave the way. It is oddly fitting then that Shiite Iran and Sunni Pakistan are the key to uniting and revitalizing the Muslim world. If they can overcome their doctrinal, ethnic, and linguistic differences by focusing on their shared Islamic identities, they have a chance at finally ending the cycle of violence and instability that has gripped Muslim societies for centuries.

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